Open Briefing | 1

Quarterly evaluation report

Y2Q3: October-December 2012

Highlights

• In the three months from October to December 2012, Open Briefing

published 16 intelligence briefs, articles and dossiers; made a significant

intervention in a key peace and security debate; and responded to six

intelligence requests from civil society organisations.

• The number of website visitors was significantly up on the previous

quarter and our online influence score increased.

• We were awarded a £5,000 grant from the Marmot Charitable Trust.

• Overall, progress was made on nine out of 11 objectives, despite only

being the first quarter of stage 2.

• During this quarter we also completed a thorough evaluation of stage 1,

updated and revamped the website and launched the new Conflict and

diplomacy intelligence desk, the Open Briefing consultancy and a

community department.

Table 1. Summary of progress achieved to date against each stage 2 objective.

Objective % achieved

Respond to 100 intelligence requirements from civil

society organisations 6%

Make six significant interventions in key peace and

security debates 17%

Attain 3,000 subscribers in total 29%

Attract 4,000 unique visitors a month to the Open

Briefing website 65%

Receive 12 media mentions 0%

Achieve an average online influence score of 60/100 73%

File 1,000 items under the regional and issue

intelligence desks 30%

Publish 90 Open Briefing publications 18%

Expand the team to 35 members in total 66%

Raise £190,000 6%

Generate 9.5% of income from sources other than

trusts and foundations 26%

Open Briefing | 2

1. Respond to 100 intelligence requirements from civil society organisations

Open Briefing has responded to six intelligence requests from civil society organisations (6% of target).

These related to:

• Turkish policy towards Syria.

• Financial relief to Sudan.

• Developments at the Parchin military complex, Iran.

• A US freelance journalist kidnapped in Syria.

• Probability of Israeli military strikes against Iran.

• Possible roles of the United States and United Kingdom in strikes against Iran.

2. Make six significant interventions in key peace and security debates

Open Briefing has made one significant intervention in a key security debate (17% of target).

In contrast to many pundits and analysts, our analysis of the probability of Israeli strikes against Iran in the

six months following the US presidential election concluded that this eventuality was highly unlikely

between the US presidential elections in November 2012 and the Israeli elections in January 2013, and

unlikely between January and the Iranian presidential elections in June 2013. Our intelligence briefing

feed into the policy planning of the commissioning NGO, a leading international non-profit. It was also

picked up in Iran and partially translated into Persian by the Ahmadinejad-linked Jebhe Paydari (Steadfast

Front) political group and the Revolutionary Guard-linked Sobhe Sadegh newspaper.

3. Attain 3,000 subscribers in total

Open Briefing has a total of 862 subscribers to its e-bulletin, social networks, podcast and other outputs

(29% of target). This is up from 684 subscribers at the end of the last quarter. Twitter currently has the

most subscribers (284), followed by our e-bulletin (243).

Figure 1. Number of subscribers to the Open Briefing e-bulletin, social networks, podcast and other outputs.

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4. Attract 4,000 unique visitors a month to the Open Briefing website

There were an average 2,606 unique visitors to the Open Briefing website during this quarter (65% of

target). This is up from an average 2,000 visitors during the previous quarter.

It is suspected that the relatively low number of visitors during December 2012 was an anomaly due to the

holiday season.

Figure 2. Number of unique visitors and visits to the Open Briefing website.

5. Receive 12 media mentions

Open Briefing did not receive any media mentions during this quarter, though our Africa analyst, Lawrence

Gitonga Mwongera, was featured in an America Abroad Media radio documentary discussing a radical

Islamist secessionist group in Kenya.

6. Achieve an average online influence score of 60/100

Open Briefing uses a basket of online influence metrics (Klout, Kred and PeerIndex) to measure social

media influence and Google PageRank to measure relative website importance. Using these, our average

online influence score across this quarter was 44/100 (73% of target), including a Google PageRank of

5/10. This is an increase on the 42/100 achieved during the previous quarter.

Figure 3. Open Briefing's average online influence score.

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7. File 1,000 items under the regional and issue intelligence desks

The Open Briefing intelligence desks have filed 289 items to date (30% of target).

The graph below gives an indication of the relative priority given so far to each desk. The political

violence and dissent desk and resource security and climate change desk filed the most items of the

issue desks, and the Middle East desk and Asia and Pacific desk filed the most items of the regional

desks. Note that the Conflict and Diplomacy desk was only launched at the start of this quarter, which

accounts for the low number of items filed so far.

Figure 4. Number of items filed under each Open Briefing intelligence desk.

8. Publish 90 Open Briefing publications

Open Briefing published 16 original publications during this quarter, including nine intelligence briefs, five

articles and two dossiers (18% of target). We also published four Middle East intelligence digests.

9. Expand the team to 35 members in total

There are currently 23 members of the Open Briefing team, including staff, volunteers and advisers (66%

of target). Interviews for new contributing analyst and associate researchers to join our team will be held

during the next quarter.

10. Raise £190,000

Open Briefing has raised £12,310 towards our 2012-15 budget (6% of target). This includes a £7,000

surplus from stage 1, a £5,000 grant from the Marmot Charitable Trust and £310 in public donations. We

are still awaiting the outcome of grant applications totalling £133,730 over three years.

11. Generate 9.5% of income from sources other than trusts and

foundations

During this quarter, 2.5% of our income came from non-grant sources (26% of target).

Chris Abbott, Founder & Executive Director

15 January 2013

Political violence and dissent

Resource security and climate change

Nuclear issues

UK national security

Conflict and diplomacy

Middle East

Asia and Pacific

Africa

Americas

Europe

Polar regions

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