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Yara International ASA
2015 fourth quarter
results
11 February 2016
IR – 11 February 2016
Safe operations is our first priority
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
TRI
TRI: Total recordable injuries, lost time (absence from work), restricted work and medical treatment cases per one million work hours
IR – 11 February 2016
Summary fourth quarter
• Weaker result reflecting lower margins and deliveries
• Significant downtime impacts production of urea, ammonia and nitrates
• Global deliveries down 7%, but increase in Brazil
• Strong Industrial result with continued growth for environmental products
• Asset write-downs of NOK 1,150 million
• Proposed dividend NOK 15 per share, 51% of net income
IR – 11 February 2016
10.54
9.82 9.25
7.67 8.04 6.69
5.66
0.23
6.40
8.26
6.18 6.74
2.65
10.59
14.56
1.58
8.32
10.80
9.00
7.21
8.52 7.97
5.62
2.65
7.03 7.74 7.62
8.17
10.51
9.58
7.41
3.97
Earnings per share*
*Average number of shares for 4Q 2015: 274.6 million (4Q 2014: 275.8 million).
NOK 37.31 20.67 27.59 29.38
Annual 2012 2013 2014
EPS excluding currency and
special items
2015
IR – 11 February 2016
35.1
9.4
25.6
31.9
7.0
38.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Pro
duction
Exp
ort
Do
mestic
Do
mestic
Exp
ort
Pro
duction
Million tons
Chinese urea balance this season
+24%
Source: BOABC, CFMW
Jul-Dec 14/15 Jul-Dec 15/16
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380USD/t
Urea price China (inland proxy price) Urea fob Black Sea
Declining urea pricing
Lower urea prices due to lower supply cost from China
IR – 11 February 2016
Season-to-date Europe and US nitrogen fertilizer
industry deliveries behind last year
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15
Domestic production Net imports
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15
Domestic production Net imports
Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries.
Total nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates
West Europe Million tons N US Million tons N
-5% -4%
IR – 11 February 2016
Lower production due to maintenance stops and
unplanned outages
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Kilotons
2015
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Kilotons
Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN SSP - based fertilizer
2014 2011 2012 2013 2015
* Including share of equity-accounted investees
Finished fertilizer & industrial products1 Ammonia1
2014 2011 2012 2013
IR – 11 February 2016
292
183
144
77
119
281 287 268
62
122
224
370
242
56
108
Asia Brazil LatinAmerica excl.
Brazil
Africa NorthAmerica
Continued premium products growth outside Europe
Kilotons Kilotons
4Q15 4Q14 4Q13
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15
Outside Europe Europe
CAGR
10%
1) YaraBela, YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries
Value-added fertilizer deliveries1 Value-added fertilizer deliveries1
IR – 11 February 2016
Brazil: 4Q industry deliveries 7% lower than last year,
pick-up in Yara deliveries
222 198
290
102 116
147
175
231 250
183
287
370
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
Brazil 4Q fertilizer deliveries
Kilotons Kilotons
Source: ANDA, Yara
Yara Brazil value-added product deliveries
2015 2014 2013 Brazil
deliveries Brazil industry
deliveries
Galvani
deliveries
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Th
ou
san
ds
+2% ex.
Galvani
-7%
Galvani
170 kt
IR – 11 February 2016
57%
51%
6%
2014
53%
47%
6%
2013
64%
48%
16%
2012
47%
2015P
35%
12%
2011
23%
17%
6%
2010
19%
18%
1%
2009
41%
34%
6%
2008
21%
16%
5%
2007
26%
19%
7%
2006
48%
18%
30%
2005
48%
23%
25%
2004
32%
25%
7%
Proposed dividend NOK 15 per share
Dividends Share buy-backs
Dividend and buy-backs1 NOK per share
Target range 40-45%
2,3 2,4 2,54,0 4,5 4,5
5,5
13,0
10,0
13,0
15,0
1,5
1,1
1,9
7,0
0,8
0,81,4
2015P
5.3
2008
4.5
2007
5.4
2006
4.0
2012
14.1
2011
7.4
0.4
2010
5.5
2009
15.5
0.5
2014
13.8
2013
11.9
2005
2.8
0.4
2004
2.3
Dividends Share buy-backs
Share of net income
1) Number of shares based on the number of shares receiving dividend
IR – 11 February 2016
NutrioxTM - calcium nitrate with integrated technology
solutions, for preventive waste water odor control
• Hydrogen sulphide (H2S) is a toxic gas that often
develops in waste water and sewage systems
• The absence of air and oxygen cause bacterial
production of hydrogen sulphide (H2S).
• H2S causes eye, nose and throat irritation. H2S can
also transform into sulphuric acid, causing corrosion in
sewage networks
• Nutriox™ provides H2S prevention for corrosion,
odor and toxicity control of municipal and industrial
waste water systems
128 128 131
76 84 90
2013
226 215
2015 2014
208
North America Rest of World Europe
Kilotons
IR – 11 February 2016
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortization (EBITDA)
4,310 4,966
4,103 3,591
4,184
4,039 3,318
1,858
3,591
4,227
3,964
4,625 4,794 5,179
7,884
3,504
3,935
5,196
4,186
3,541
4,149
4,103
3,223 2,363
3,830 4,185
4,002 4,528
5,742
5,055
4,614
3,508
2012 2014 2013 2015
NOK
millions 16,970 13,399 16,407 21,361
Annual
EBITDA excluding special
items
NOK millions
IR – 11 February 2016
EBITDA development
722
1 296
461
1 460
3 504
4 625
102
EBITDA 4Q15 Special
items
Currency Other Price/margin Volume EBITDA 4Q14
NOK millions
Of which
Pilbara and
Belle Plaine
~ 700 MNOK
IR – 11 February 2016
Write-downs of NOK 1,150 million
• Yara Montoir (France) – nitrate and
compound NPK plant
• small scale
• limited export opportunities
• serves home market, exposed to more
commodity grains
• Yara Trinidad - ammonia plant
• small scale
• frequent gas supply curtailments
• lower energy efficiency compared to
Yara’s average
382
224
1 150
544
Total write-
downs
Other Montoir Trinidad
NOK millions
IR – 11 February 2016
Earnings per segment
1,211 1,253
235
308
3,434
2,176
1,234 1,435
296
308
3,251
1,998
Crop Nutrition Industrial Production
EBITDA excluding special items
4Q14 4Q15
EBITDA1 (NOK millions)
1) 4Q 2015 result reflects new segment structure as described in note 3 of the financial report.
IR – 11 February 2016
Lower natural gas cost in Europe
(726)
(1,314)
(588)
(151)
(588)
(900)
(1,050)
(1,400)
(1,200)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
NOK millions
February 2016 estimate*
Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 02 February 2016
Yara European gas & oil cost
Actual
Change in European energy cost
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
USD/ MMBtu
TTF (1-month lag) Yara Europe
IR – 11 February 2016
Stable European nitrate premium
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15
USD/t
Nitrogen upgrading margins1 (monthly publication prices)
Urea Black sea CFR proxy CAN (46% N)
NH3 CFR (46% N) Urea Egypt CFR proxy
Value
above gas
Value above
ammonia
Nitrate
premium
above urea
Yara EU gas cost *20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15
European nitrate premium2 (quarterly Yara realized) USD/t
2) Yara European realized nitrate prices compared with urea
publication prices with one month time lag. All numbers in USD
per ton of CAN equivalents. 1) All prices in urea equivalents
IR – 11 February 2016
Value above
raw material
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15
USD/t NPK premium over blend1
Stable commodity phosphate margins and solid NPK
compound premiums
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15
USD/t Phosphate upgrading margins
DAP, fob USG
Rock, fob North Africa *1.4
NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22
DAP, CIF inland Germany
MOP, CIF inland Germany
Urea, CIF inland Germany
Weighted average global
premium above blend cost
1) Export NPK plants, average grade 19-10-13, net of
transport and handling cost.
Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany
IR – 11 February 2016
Net interest-bearing debt development
2 5333 229
793
756
4 057
1 164
11 868
4 401
Galvani
payment
Pilbara
buy-out
Cash
earnings*
Net debt
Sep 15
Other Net debt
Dec 15
FX gain
362
Share
buy/backs
364
Investments
net
Net operating
capital
change
* Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges
NOK millions
IR – 11 February 2016
Prospects
• Supportive farm margin outlook and fertilizer application incentives
• Chinese urea production and export costs remain key for global nitrogen pricing
• Catch-up in Europe deliveries expected in 1H 2016
• Continued nitrate and NPK demand growth for higher value crops, but P and K demand
impacted in commodity crop sectors
• Further NOK 2 billion European gas cost saving expected next 2 quarters
IR – 11 February 2016
IR – 11 February 2016
71.4
13.6
57.7 61.6
13.8
75.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Pro
duction
Exp
ort
Do
mestic
Do
mestic
Exp
ort
Pro
duction
Million tons
Source: BOABC, CFMW
Increased production and exports from China
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
Black Sea
USD/t Chinese exports and urea price Chinese urea balance L12M
7%
Jan 14– Dec 14 Jan 15– Dec 15
Kilotons
IR – 11 February 2016
Brazil 2015 industry deliveries 6% lower than last year,
Yara Brazil -5% Brazil 2015 fertilizer deliveries
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Th
ou
san
ds
-5%
-6%
Kilotons Kilotons
Source: ANDA, Yara
Yara Brazil value-added product 2015 deliveries
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Yara Brazil deliveries Brazil industry
deliveries
IR – 11 February 2016
Yara 4Q fertilizer sales by market and product
2,267 2,667
766 477 408
2,084
2,784
549 445 286
Europe Latin America North America Asia Africa
4Q14 4Q15
1,099 1,315 1,464 1,426
849
233 203
1,114 1,358 1,342
1,006 923
203 200
Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CNNPK compounds1 NPK blends1
Kilotons
1) Yara produced NPK compound and NPK blends
IR – 11 February 2016
YaraMila and YaraBela deliveries
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15
Kilotons
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15
Yara-produced YaraBela deliveries Kilotons
Yara-produced YaraMila deliveries
Outside Europe Europe Outside Europe Europe
IR – 11 February 2016
NOK millions Total Yara contribution
Value-added and distribution make up larger part of Yaras contribution
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
11 000
Commodity Europe
Commodity overseas
Upgrade & distribution
Trade
4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 2Q15 4Q15 4Q14 2Q14 4Q13 2Q11 4Q10 2Q10
IR – 11 February 2016
Industrial volume development
829815
892859864852849
816
866819
844
792
577541540
482511
438456432
328
385364333346
380361339
367364358328
4Q15 3Q15 2Q15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 1Q14
382
4Q13 3Q13
374
2Q13
368
1Q13
343
Other Industrial N-chemicals Environmental products
Kilotons
IR – 11 February 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
AdBlue deliveries
Kilotons
IR – 11 February 2016
Debt/equity ratio
0.49
0.20
0.07
-0.04
0.05
0.13
0.38
0.22
0.08
0.01
0.06
0.15
0.32
0.12
0.06 0.06
0.08 0.06
0.27
0.12
0.02 0.06
0.17 0.16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)
IR – 11 February 2016
Yara stocks
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Urea Nitrates Compound NPK Other
Bunge Fertilizer
included from 3Q 2013
Kilotons
Finished fertilizer
IR – 11 February 2016
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
15/16 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Source: Fertilizers Europe
European producers’ nitrate stocks
Index
June 2007 = 1
IR – 11 February 2016
4.0 4.4
4.0
2.8
3.7
5.2 4.6
3.9 3.8
2.9 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2
4.8
5.7
8.2 8.0 8.0 8.1
6.9
6.1 6.5
6.0 5.7
5.3 5.2 4.1
3.9
4.7
6.6
9.2 9.4
10.5 9.8
7.6 7.0
8.1
7.0 6.8 6.5
5.4
4.2 4.1
6.6
7.6
10.7 11.0 11.4 11.3
9.2
7.5
8.5
7.6 7.5 7.0
6.2
5.0 4.6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global TTF day ahead (Zeebrugge 2009-2012) Yara Europe
Energy cost
USD per MMBtu
Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts/Argus/ICIS Heren
Yearly averages 2009 – 2013, quarterly averages for 2014-15 with forward prices* for 1Q16 and 2Q16.
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 13 October 2015
IR – 11 February 2016
Currency exposure affecting Profit & Loss
At the beginning of the first quarter 2016
1. The US dollar debt generating Profit & Loss exposure was USD 1,800 million
• Kept as hedge of future earnings and to finance inventories in emerging markets
• Exposure mainly towards EUR (40 %), AUD and BRL (20 % each) and other
emerging market currencies
• The debt level in emerging markets will fluctuate with fertilizer seasons
2. Additional Profit & Loss exposure from internal currency positions
• Payables mainly CAD (150 million) vs. NOK
• Receivables mainly EUR (700 million) vs. NOK and BRL (1,750 million) vs. EUR
IR – 11 February 2016
Global grain balance
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
2,550
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16F
Million tons
Consumption Production
Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16F
Days
Source: USDA February 2016
IR – 11 February 2016
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16
Thousand contracts
Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Non-commercials’ net long position in corn
IR – 11 February 2016
Source: CRU urea update September 2015 (June 2015 in brackets) . Consumption data source is IFA.
Year Driving regions Urea capacity growth relative
to nitrogen capacity
Excluding China Excluding China
2015 Algeria 26%
Saudi Arabia 24% 1.8% (2.6%)
2016 USA 33%
Algeria 14% 3.1% (3.0%)
2017 USA 35%
Nigeria 10% 2.3% (1.6%)
2018 Nigeria 30%
Russia 20% 1.5% (1.5%)
2019 Nigeria 36%
Russia 29% 1.2% (1.3%)
Gross annual addition 2015-2019 ~2.0%
Assumed annual closures ~0.5%
Net annual addition 2015-2019 ~1.5%
Trend consumption growth from 2004 2.0%
Projected nitrogen capacity additions outside China
IR – 11 February 2016
Key value drivers – quarterly averages
315 295 277 268 250
355 337 297 281 270
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q14
Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea granular fob Egypt (dotted line, USD/t)
310 295 273 257 255
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
CAN cif Germany (USD/t)
3.8
2.9 2.7 2.7
2.1
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)
8.1 7.0 6.8 6.4
5.5
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
TTF day ahead (USD/MMBtu)
6.9 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.5
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
NOK/USD exchange rate
572
413 393 388 355
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t)
Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank
IR – 11 February 2016
10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages
Source: Average of international publications
0
200
400
600
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea/Urea granular fob Egypt
Average prices 2006 - 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t DAP fob US Gulf/MOP granular fob Vancouver
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t CAN cif Germany
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea