Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH)

David H. BromwichMember Polar Prediction Project Steering Committee

Chair, YOPP-SH Task Team

YOPP-SH in Detail

• Coordination Committee consists of representatives from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Germany, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, UK, USA, SOOS, SORP.

• SOP: November 16, 2018-February 15, 2019

• Next YOPP-SH meeting (#3): Madison, Wisconsin July 19, 2018.

• Website: http://polarmet.osu.edu/YOPP-SH/

Observational Commitments for YOPP-SH SOP

• Additional radiosondes

• Drifting buoy deployments in the Southern Ocean

• Ship observations from the Southern Ocean

• Ocean Observatories Buoy at 55S, 90W (west of Drake Passage) will continue through YOPP-SH SOP. Surface weather, fluxes, water column observations.

Mario Zucchelli1/d, 92 extra

Dumont D’Urville3/d, 276 extra

Macquarie Island2/d, 184 extra

Dome C1/d, 92 extra Casey

2/d, 184 extra

Mirny1/d, 92 extra

Davis2/d, 184 extra

Mawson1/d, 92 extra

Syowa1/d; 2/d Jan. 2019,

123 extra

Novolazarevskaya1/d, 92 extraNeumayer

3/d, 276 extra

RV Polarstern3/d, 276 extra

Halley1/d,92 extra

Rothera2/w,26 extra

King Sejong1/d,92 extra

Presidente Eduardo Frei Montalva 1/d,92 extra

Aboa1/d, 70 extra(12/10/18-01/31/19) Dome Fuji

2/d Dec. 2018, 50 extraca 2,380

extra radiosonde launches during YOPP-SH Special Observing Period

RV Polarstern

RV Gould

NIWA

International Program for Antarctic Buoys (IPAB)2017 – 2018 Deployment Plans

RV Gould (US)• 24 SVP-B, 2/month (USIPAB)RV Shirase (December 2017, Australia)• 6 SVP-B (BOM/AU)• 4 SVP-B (GDP/USIABP)RV Nathaniel B. Palmer (December, US)• 20 SVP-B (USIPAB) on leg from

PA to MCM, to Hobart.• 20 SVP-B (USIABP) on S4P and

P16 on the shelf.RV Polarstern (January, Germany)• 10 SVP-B (USIPAB)• 2 IMB, 2 Snow, and 3 SVP-B

(AWI)• 7 SVP (Petra Heil)NIWA (New Zealand)• 10 SVP-B (USIPAB)• 10 SVP-B (USIPAB)BOM (Australia)• 2 Ice Beacons near Heard

Island, and 2 drifters.RV Agulhas II (SAWS)• N SVP-Bs (USIPAB)RV Aurora Australis (Australia)• N SVP-Bs (USIPAB)

From Ignatius Rigor, UW

Meredith et al. (SCAR, 2013)

Shipboard underway meteorological and oceanographic measurements during YOPP-SH – Isa Rosso Scripps

Need: contact scientific programs, tourist cruises, coast guard.. with a presence in the Southern Ocean during SOP

• data on the GTS? • data archived for future

assessment?

So far: been in touch with several countries (Brazil, UK, Argentina, Japan, USA, Chile) to determine their participation in YOPP-SH SOP in terms of obs. and transmission via GTS.

francois.massonnet@uclouvain.be

Coordinating Seasonal Predictions of Sea Ice in the Southern Ocean for 2017-2019

http://acecrc.org.au/sipn-south/

Anomaly of February 2018 mean sea ice area (anomalyw.r.t 1979-2014 obs climatology), per longitude. Only 8

out of 13 groups contributed regional information

Systematic erroror inherentunpredictability?

https://github.com/fmassonn/sipn-south-public

How well do current prediction systems forecast the seasonal evolution of circumpolar

and regional Antarctic sea ice conditions?

Focal point for Antarctic sea ice outlooksForum for community and hub for discussionsSupport of the YOPP-SH Special Observing Period

Scientific Question Implementation

A « dress rehearsal » was conductedA call for contributions for Februaryforecasts was sent on November 15th, 2017. A total of 13 groups contributed 160 forecasts. These were compared againsttwo observational data sets.

Predicting the Ross Sea ice anomalyproved to be very challenging.

Want to contribute? More information? Feedback?

Summer sea ice extent variability has increasedin recent years, and 2018 tracked record lows.

NSI

DC-

G021

35

OBS

FORECASTS

Real-time Numerical Weather Prediction

• Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS, USA): Regional, dedicated NWP for Antarctica at 8 km, finest grid in western Ross Sea and Ross Ice Shelf at 0.9 km. Runs at 00 and 12 UTC for various durations. Global open access via AMPS webpage. Supersite output being negotiated. All forecasts archived.

• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): operational global ensemble forecasts. 18 km coupled forecasts to 15 days. Process tendencies archived for 2-day forecasts. Output at Supersites archived also. Global open access via their YOPP webpage. “Virtual Field Campaign”.

New Real-time/Near Real-time NWP• India – has been running Polar WRF for sometime in support of their

logistical operations at Maitri. Availability?

• Chile– Real-time starting November 2018: Polar WRF runs for the Antarctic Peninsula. Open access available on the DireccionMeteorologica de Chile website. (www.meteochile.cl). Look under Prognosticos.

• China - real-time: Polar WRF runs for Antarctica for logistical resupply. Open Access (http://47.93.39.48:88/Polar.html).

• MeteoFrance – near-real-time: Arpege stretched global grid centered over Antarctica. Limited runs with AROME. Access not known currently.

• Korea: Polar WRF runs for the King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula region. Case study only so far. Access not known currently.

Observing System Experiments (OSEs)Applying the SOP Observations to Improve Real-time Antarctic NWP

• The US National Science Foundation has funded a project (starting June 1, 2018 for 3 years) to evaluate the impact of the Special Observing Period observations on AMPS forecasts. This will be done by two data assimilation techniques in order to see which approach results in the greatest forecast improvement. The project will have a lasting value for AMPS and the PPP/YOPP community with implementation of an advanced Data Assimilation approach.

• Japan and France are developing plans for their own OSEs.

Scientific Opportunities for Participation in YOPP-SH

Get your YOPP-SH relevant research proposal endorsed by YOPP. Shows links with this international undertaking and enhances the chances for funding.

Undertake analysis of YOPP-SH forecast data sets in the Southern Hemisphere to examine such things as model physics (at supersites) and predictability.

Undertake OSEs using YOPP-SH SOP observations.

Provide any relevant field observations for use in OSEs and/or forecast validation.

Contact me for input: bromwich.1@osu.edu