YOU, ME AND RC28

WHERE IS

THE NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH ON

SOCIAL STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY?

WOUT ULTEE

RADBOUD UNIVERSITY

NIJMEGEN THE NETHERLANDS

MEETING OF THE RESEARCH

COMMITTEE ON SOCIAL

STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY

OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION

UNIVERSITY OF ESSEX

APRIL 13-16, 2011

WHEN THIS OLDER PERSON MEETS RC28 NEWCOMERS,

THE COMPLIMENT OF NEWCOMERS OFTEN IS THAT ONE RECEIVES GOOD COMMENTS IN RC28

I HAVE THREE DISAPPOINTMENTS FOR YOU:

1. I AND OTHER OLDER RC28 MEMBERS MAY TELL YOU THAT YOUR RESEARCH QUESTION IS WRONG: LATER RC28 GENERATIONS ARGUED THAT EARLIER ONES POSED ISSUES POORLY

2. THE SHIFT WITHIN RC28 FROM STATUS ATTAINMENT MODELS TO CLASS ANALYSIS MARKED A NEW GENERATION, BUT WILL THE ISSUE OF MACRO VERSUS MICRO CLASSES LEAD TO A NEW GENERATION TOO?

3. HAVE RC28 UNIVERSITY SOCIOLOGISTS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THINK TANK ECONOMISTS WHO RAISE INCOME MOBILITY QUESTIONS?

MY CRITICAL

LEARNING PERIOD IN

RC28 SOCIOLOGY INCLUDED

THE COVER OF A NOW DEFUNCT BRITISH WEEKLY

THE COVER STEMS FROM RIGHT BEFORE THE 1980 PUBLICATION OF

GOLDTHORPE, SOCIAL MOBILITY AND CLASS STRUCTURE IN MODERN BRITAIN AND OF HALSEY, HEATH &

RIDGE, ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS

THESE STUDIES MARKED A NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH IN

SOCIAL MOBILITY

NEW SOCIETY DID NOT NOTE THIS SHIFT FROM THE GLASS

GENERATION TO THE GOLDTHORPE GENERATION

AS SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN AROUND IN RC28 FOR A LONGER TIME

I DISTINGUISH PAPERS ACCORDING TO GENERATIONS

FROM TIME TO TIME THINGS HAPPENED IN RC28 THAT MARKED A

BIG BREAK WITH THE PAST

AND THESE MAIN EVENTS MADE RESEARCH OF THE OLDER

GENERATION NOT ONLY ANTIQUATED, BUT FIT FOR THE DUSTBIN

THE EASY BUT SOMETIMES MISLEADING WAY OF RECOGNIZING GENERATIONS IN PAPERS IS

LOOKING AT METHODS OF DATA ANALYSIS

THERE ARE A LOT OF METHODS,

AND SOMETIMES A PERVASIVE SHIFT OCCURS FROM ONE METHOD TO ANOTHER:

FIRST GENERATION

SECOND GENERATION

THIRD GENERATION

FOURTH GENERATION

FIFTH GENERATION

LIPSET 1956

DUNCAN 1967

GOLDTHORPE 1978

BLOSSFELD 1986

???

PERCENTAGES

LINEAR REGRESSION

ODDS RATIO’S

EVENT HISTORY MODELS

???

FIFTH GENERATION

???

FROM STANDARD LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS TO MULTI-LEVEL MODELS IS NO BIG THING

FROM LOGLINEAR MODELS TO MULTI-LEVEL MULTI-NOMINAL LOGISTIC

REGRESSION MODELS IS NO BIG THING

HECKMAN CORRECTION FOR SELECTION BIAS IS NO BIG THING

IMPUTATION OF MISSING VALUES IS NO BIG THING

GENERATIONS ARE NOT MARKED BY NEW METHODS

THE NEW GENERATION IMPLIES AND SOMETIMES

ANNOUNCES LOUDLY

THAT RESEARCH QUESTIONS OF THE OLD GENERATION POSE THE ISSUE POORLY

THE OLD GENERATION USED METHODS THAT INCORPORATE

HYPOTHESES THAT ARE PRECISELY AT ISSUE

LE MONDE IN 2007 SHOWED A RISE IN THE PERCENT OF DOWNWARDLY MOBILE FRENCH PERSONS

WHY IS DOWNWARD MOBILITY INCREASING?

THIS QUESTION POSES THE ISSUE POORLY

IT IS KNOWN THAT THE PERCENT OF PEOPLE WITH THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE ORIGIN IS GROWING

EVEN WHEN THE CHANCES OF PERSONS FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL RISE,

THE PERCENT DOWNWARD MOBILITY MAY RISE

DUNCAN DROPPED QUESTIONS ABOUT ‘DIFFERENCE SCORES’

THE SECOND GENERATION ASKS AFTER THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ORIGIN

AND DESTINATION

MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS QUESTIONS ABOUT MOVEMENTS BETWEEN TWO STEPS ON A

LADDER

BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF STEPS ON A LADDER

SO THE QUESTION OF THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM STEP 1 TO STEP 2 DIFFERS FROM THE QUESTION OF THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3

WHEN COMPUTING LINEAR REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE ASSOCIATION

BETWEEN ALL ORIGINS AND ALL DESTINATIONS IS UNIFORM

YET THERE MAY BE HYPOTHESES STATING THAT IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO MOVE FROM STEP 1 TO STEP 2

THAN FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3

THAT IS PART OF THE REASON WHY THE THIRD GENERATION COMPUTED A SET OF ODDS RATIO’S

MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS QUESTIONS ABOUT MOVEMENTS OF PERSONS

BETWEEN TWO POINTS IN TIME

TO AVOID MISGUIDED QUESTIONS, THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THESE TWO POINTS IN

TIME SHOULD BE EQUAL FOR ALL INVESTIGATED PERSONS

HOWEVER, THE STANDARD RESEARCH DESIGN OF OLDER GENERATIONS COLLECTS FOR A

RANDOM SAMPLE OF A COUNTRY’S POPULATION

THEIR CLASS AT AGE 14 AND THEIR CLASS AT THE TIME OF THE SURVEY

EVERY GENERATION RAISED THE QUESTION OF WHETHER SOCIAL MOBILITY IS STABLE

THIS QUESTION CANNOT BE ANSWERED BY DATA FOR THE ORIGIN AT SOME FIXED AGE AND THE

CURRENT JOB OF THE MEMBERS OF ONE SOCIETY AT ONE POINT IN TIME

HOWEVER, SOME SAID THAT AT AROUND AGE 35, ‘OCCUPATIONAL MATURITY’ SETS IN

IF THIS IS THE CASE, A COMPARISON OF COHORTS ABOVE 35 DOES THE TRICK

BUT THE MATURITY THESIS BEGS THE QUESTION: THE AGE OF MATURITY MAY VARY BETWEEN

COHORTS

TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT INCREASING OR DECREASING MOBILITY

WITH DATA FROM ONE SURVEY

THE FOURTH GENERATION PROPOSED THE COLLECTION OF JOB HISTORIES FOR ALL MEMBERS OF A SOCIETY AT

THE TIME OF THE SURVEY

DATA FOR OCCUPATIONAL TRJECTORIES ALLOW FOR ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS ABOUT AGE-, COHORT AND

PERIOD EFFECTS

THE FOURTH GENERATION DID NOT ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT OCCUPATIONAL CAREERS

IT DID NOT CAME AROUND TO THE QUESTION OF WHETHER CAREERS ARE SELF-REINFORCING:

IF A PERSON HAPPENS TO START OUT AT A HIGHER JOB AFTER LEAVING SCHOOL WITH

SPECIFIC CREDENTIALS, WILL THAT PERSON DO BETTER LATER ON JUST BECAUSE OF THIS

HIGHER FIRST JOB?

THAT QUESTION WAS ANSWERED BY THE ARROW FROM FIRST TO PRESENT JOB IN

DUNCAN’S SECOND-GENERATION PATH MODEL OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE

LIFE REMAINS MESSY IN RC28

SO, AT RC28 MEETINGS I LOOK OUT FOR NEWCOMERS

WHO DECLARE THE QUESTIONS OF OLDER GENERATIONS WRONG

BUT IN THE COURSE OF TIME I HAVE HEARD QUITE A FEW

MEMBERS OF OLDER GENERATIONS SAY THAT

QUESTIONS OF NEWCOMERS ARE WRONG

FROM THE EXEMPLAR OF FIRST GENERATION TO THE EXEMPLAR OF THE THIRD

GENERATION

RC28 RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT MEN ONLY

ARE THESE GAPS BEING FILLED BY QUESTIONS ABOUT

WOMEN?

DO THESE QUESTIONS ELIMINATE THE ERRORS OF

OLDER GENERATIONS?

THE ISSUE OF WOMEN’S ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY

IF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE NUMBER OF STEPS A MAN ROSE ARE MISGUIDED,

QUESTIONS ABOUT WIFE’S INCOME AS A PERCENT OF HUSBAND’S INCOME ARE

MISGUIDED TOO

THE 50-50 COUPLES ARE A MIXED BAG, DEPENDING UPON THE AVERAGE INCOME

OF THE COUPLE

IT IS WISE TO RAISE A STRING OF FOUR QUESTIONS

DO NOT JUMP ON THE TRAIN OF THE DEPENDENCY:

1. IS THE (HOURLY) INCOME OF A WIFE HIGHER, IF HER HUSBAND HAS A HIGHER (HOURLY) INCOME?

2. DOES A WIFE’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND UPON HET OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE

EDUCATION OF HER HUSBAND?

3. DOES A HUSBAND’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND UPON HIS OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE

EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE?

4. IS THERE STILL A POSITIVE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN WIFE’S AND HUSBAND’S INCOME AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY

AND PARTNER EFFECTS?

THE ISSUE OF THE HOUSEHOLD DIVISION OF LABOUR

QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TIME WOMEN SPEND ON HOUSEHOLD CHORES RELATIVE TO THE TIME THEIR

HUSBAND DOES SO

ARE MISGUIDED

THERE IS A 50-50 DIVISION OF LABOUR IF BOTH PARTNERS ARE SLUTTISH AND IF THEY HAVE A POLUTION PHOBIA

THE PROPER SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS:

1. ARE THE HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES POSITIVELY RELATED?

2. TO WHAT EXTENT DOES OWN CLASS EXPLAIN THE HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND OF WIVES?

3. DOES THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES PERSIST AFTER TAKING INTO

ACCOUNT CLASS HOMOGAMY AND PARTNER EFFECTS?

WHEN ESTIMATING MODELS ALSO STUDY INTERCEPTS!

THE FIRST GENERATION DID NOT SUCCEED IN APPLYING ITS OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCALES WHEN ANSWERING

MOBILITY QUESTIONS

THE SECOND GENERATION DID SUCCEED IN THIS, LEADING TO STATUS ATTAINMENT RESEARCH

THE THIRD GENERATION OBJECTED AGAINST PRESTIGE GRADIENTS, SINCE INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES WOULD CONSIST

OF A LIMITED NUMBER OD DISCRETE CLASSES

HOWEVER, UNLIKE MARXISANT SOCIOLOGY, THE THIRD GENERATION DID NOT ASSERT THAT THE MIDDLE CLASSES

WERE DISAPPEARING, NOR THAT THE RELATIVE SIZE OF THE HIGHEST CLASSES WAS GETTING SMALLER

THE CLASS SCHEMA DOMINANT AT PRESENT IN THE EUROPEAN WING OF RC28

CONSISTS OF TEN CLASSES

BUT THESE CLASSES RIGHT NOW ARE BEING DISQUALIFIED AS MACRO-CLASSES AND THE SCHEMA IS BEING CHALLENGED BY THE IDEA OF MICRO-CLASSES

THIS LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO A STATUS GRADIENT

RIGHT NOW I AM INTERESTED IN RATHER DIFFERENT QUESTIONS AND SQUARE TABLES

I TRY TO MAKE A SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS THAT DRILLS DEEPER AND DEEPER

A MORE AND MORE SPECIFIC SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WOMEN:

1. IS THE PERCENT OF EMPLOYED WOMEN APPROACHING THAT OF EMPLOYED MEN?

2. ARE WOMEN WITH A JOB UNDER-REPRESENTED AMONG THE HIGHEST CLASSES

AND THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST PRESTIGE (EVEN AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT

THEIR EDUCATION AND LABOUR FORCE EXPERIENCE)?

3. ARE HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN UNDER-REPRESENTED AMONG THE SUPERVISORS?

AFTER EACH MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTIVE QUESTION, RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS RAISED EXPLANATORY QUESTIONS

THE ANSWERS ALMOST ALWAYS AMOUNT TO HYPOTHESES ABOUT DISCRIMINATION

- DISCRIMINATION BY MEN

IF MEN ARE DISCRIMINATING AGAINST WOMEN, THIS SHOULD SHOW UP IN SITUATIONS WHERE MEN AND

WOMEN DEAL WITH EACH OTHER

SO MY DEEPER QUESTIONS ARE:

4. IF HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN ARE SUPERVISING, TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THEY SUPERVISING WOMEN RATHER

THEN MEN?

EVEN MORE TO THE POINT:

5. HOW MANY MEN HAVE A WOMAN AS A SUPERVISOR?

THE NETHERLANDS IN 2009

GENDER OF SUPERVISOR

MALE FEMALE

88 % 12 %

56 % 44 %

THE ODDS RATIO FOR THIS TABLE:

5.8

GENDER OF MALE

EMPLOYED

PERSON FEMALE

THE HIGHER CLASSES OF THE IN RC 28 DOMINANT CLASS SCHEMA ARE CONTAINING AN EVER HIGHER PERCENT OF

A COUNTRY’S LABOUR FORCE

FOR SEVERAL COUNTRIES NOW RC28 MEMBERS ESTABLISHED A TREND TOWARDS MORE RELATIVE

INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY

FOR MOST COUNTRIES IN THE PAST DECADES THE GINI FOR INCOME INEQUALITY HAS BEEN RISING

(HOW) CAN THESE FINDINGS BE SQUARED?

DOES THIS JUXTAPOSITION INDICATE THAT RC28 SHOULD MOVE BEYOND THE PRESENT CLASS SCHEMA?

RATHER THAN STATUS ATTAINMENT AND MACRO OR MICRO CLASS MOBILITY,

SHOULD RC28 STUDY INCOME MOBILITY?

THE TRENDS IN RELATIVE INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY ESTABLISHED BY RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS

REFER TO THE PERIOD AFTER WORLD WAR 2

AND SOMETIMES TO THE FULL 20TH CENTURY

DEPENDING UPON THE COUNTRY, THE RISE OF THE GINI PERTAINS TO THE LAST THREE OR

FOUR THREE DECADES

AND WHEREAS MOBILITY PERTAINS TO PERSONS TAKEN ON THEIR OWN

GINI’S PERTAIN TO INDIVIDUALS WITHIN HOUSEHOLDS

TO WHAT EXTENT DID THE GINI SINCE 1975 RISE BECAUSE OF

1. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MACRO CLASS ON EARNINGS?

2. A STRONGER EFFECT OF LEVEL OF EDUCATION ON EARNINGS?

3. MORE ONE PERSON HOUSEHOLDS AND MORE LONE MOTHERS?

4. LOWER SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS?

5. MORE EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY?

6. A STRONGER RISE IN EMPLOYMENT FOR HIGHLY AS COMPARED WITH LOWELY EDUCATED WIVES?

7. A STRONGER EFFECT OF FIELD OF EDUCATION ON EARNINGS?

8. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MICRO CLASS ON EARNINGS?

ECONOMISTS STUDIED INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME MOBILITY FOR THE UNITED STATES IN THE 1980s

THEY FOUND CORRELATIONS BELOW 0.2

THIS CONTRASTS WITH THE CORRELATION OF 0.4 FOUND BY SOCIOLOGISTS BETWEEN THE OCCUPATIONAL

STATUS OF FATHERS AND SONS

ECONOMISTS REVIEWING DUNCAN’S WORK, POINTED OUT THAT OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE MIGHT MEASURE THE LIFE-TIME EARNINGS OF A JOB (PERMANENT INCOME)

WHEN IN THE 1990s THE CORRELATION WAS NOT COMPUTED FOR THE LOGS OF YEARLY EARNINGS,

BUT FOR THREE-YEAR AVERAGES,

THE CORRELATION ROSE TO THE LEVEL OF THE FINDINGS OF SOCIOLOGISTS

SOLON, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW 1992

THE QUESTION OF WHETHER INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS

MOBILITY DIFFERS FROM COUNTRY TO COUNTRY

WAS FEATURED IN 2007 IN AN OECD REPORT

BY D’ADDIO

INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF DISADVANTAGE

THAT REPORT REFERRED TO A THEN UNPUBLISHED PAPER BY JÄNTTI ET AL

THE PRIME FINDING WAS THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWING THAT IF THE GINI INDICATES MORE INEQUALITY, EARNINGS MOBILITY IS LOWER

DO YOU SPOT YOUR ‘OWN’ COUNTRY?

UPON SEEING THESE FIGURES,

I STARTED HUNTING FOR DUTCH FIGURES

STATISTICS NETHERLANDS WAS NOT FORTHCOMING

A TABLE PUBLISHED BY STATISTICS NETHERLANDS IN 2000, AND MADE BY THE ECONOMIST CÖRVERS

IT CROSS-CLASSIFIES THE EARNINGS QUINTILES OF FATHERS IN 1981 AND THOSE OF THEIR CHILDREN IN 1998

THIS TABLE HAS AN R OF 0.24

IF A FATHER’S EARNINGS ARE ONE PERCENT HIGHER, THE EARNINGS OF HIS CHILD ARE 0,21 PERCENT HIGHER

I CANNOT FIGURE OUT TO WHAT EXTENT THESE FIGURES ARE COMPARABLE TO THOSE OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES

THE FIGURES REFER TO 797 FATHER-CHILD COUPLES, STARTING OUT WITH A MUCH LARGER SAMPLE

I981 FATHERS HAD TO BE YOUNGER THAN 55 YEARS,

THEIR CHILDREN IN 1998 HAD TO BE AT LEAST 35 YEARS

THE OECD REGARDED AS SURPRISING

THE FINDING THAT A LOT OF INCOME INEQUALITY DOES NOT GO TOGETHER WITH A LOT OF

INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS MOBILITY

IS THERE A SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESIS PROPOSED BY A RC28 SOCIOLOGIST

FROM WHICH IT MAY DERIVED THAT IF INCOME INEQUALITY IS HIGHER,

INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS MOBILITY IS HIGHER TOO?

THE RC28 MACRO HYPOTHESES POSTULATE EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY AND IDEOLOGY ON

ANY FORM OF SOCIETAL INEQUALITY AND CLOSURE

AVERAGING EARNINGS OVER THREE YEARS DOES AWAY WITH EFFECTS OF THE

BUSINESS CYCLE IN A COUNTRY

THE EXPLANATION OF RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS FOR INTERGENERATION TRANSMISSION IS THAT A PERSON’S EDUCATION IS CRUCIAL

WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPENDENCE OF EDUCATION UPON BACKGROUND IN A

COUNTRY BEING INFLUENCED BY A COUNTRY’S POLITICAL IDEOLOGY

THE EDUCATION OF PERSONS DEPENDS UPON THE CLASS AND EDUCATION OF

THEIR PARENTS WHILE THESE PERSONS WERE YOUNG

DO ECONOMISTS GO AFTER THE INCOME OF PARENTS WHEN A CHILD WAS STILL

YOUNG?

THE COVER FROM A BRITISH NEWSPAPER DATED JANUARY 22ND 2011

IT DEPICTS INCOME INEQUALITY AND SUGGESTS THAT IF INEQUALITY IS HIGHER,

MOBILITY IS MORE DIFFICULT

THE COVER IS FROM THE ECONOMIST

IF ONE BELONGS TO THE LOWER QUINTILES, ONE’S LADDER IS NOT LONG

ENOUGH

AND PERHAPS THE PERSON STANDING ON TOP WILL KICK YOU DOWN

THE QUESTION OF INCOME MOBILITY IS WORTHY OF RC28 ATTENTION

BUT NOT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT MORE INEQUALITY MAKES FOR MORE MOBILITY

INEQUALITY MAY MOTIVATE, BUT IS A BARRIER

THIS POWERPOINT IS PLACED ON MY WEBSITE

SEARCH IN GOOGLE

WOUT ULTEE

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