Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World

Can Renewables Supply the Future Energy Needs of:

• The World? • Europe?• Individual EU

Countries?• What Might a

Renewable Future Look Like?

Godfrey BoyleProfessor of Renewable Energy, The Open University

Royal Society of Arts, London February 10th 2011

Can Renewables Power the World?Jacobson & Delucci, Stanford

University, Scientific American 2009 & Energy Policy 2011

World Power Demand by 2030: 11.5-16.9 TW (c.f. 16 TW now)

Supplied by:

WIND: 3.8 million wind turbines

SOLAR: 1,700 milllion rooftop PV systems; 49,000 Concentrating Solar plants

PV 40,000 Large Plants

WATER: 490,000 tidal turbines

WAVE: 720,000 Wave plants

HYDRO 900 Large Plants

Geothermal: 5,350 Plants

C.f. world production of cars & light trucks: 73 million/yr

Greenpeace Energy [R]Evolution & Reference Scenarios[R]Evolution in 2050: Renewables >80% of (Reduced) Demand

WWF Energy Report 2011• 95% of World

Energy Renewable by 2050

• Detailed Analysis & Scenarios by Ecofys

Energy Establishment Catches Up? IEA Blue Map & High Renewables Scenarios

In IEA Blue Map Scenario Renewables supply 48% of World Electricity in 2050

In IEA BLUE hi REN Scenario Variant, Renewables Supply 75% of World Electricity by 2050

Can Renewables Power Europe? European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) 2050 Scenario

• Renewables Provide c.95% of EU Final Energy by 2050

European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050 Report, 2010

Various

Pathways to

40%-100%

Energy from

Renewables

by 2050Authors:

Mc Kinsey Imperial College Oxford Economics

KEMA, ECF

What Could it Look Like?Energy REvolution Vision• Supergrid Linking

EU & North Africa• Wind & Solar are

Complementary• Smart Grids in

Cities• Local Mini

& Micro Grids

8

Coping with Variability: Combining Regional Demands Reduces Volatility

Big Monthly and Daily Variations for Individual Countries (Grey)

Variations Greatly Reduced When Combined (Green)

Renewable & Energy-Efficient Cities & Suburbs

• Low Energy Buildings, Old and New

• Roofs and Facades Produce Power & Heat

• Local Combined Heat & Power Plants

Low/Zero Carbon Scenarios for Individual European Countries• UK: Zero Carbon Britain: 100%

by 2030. c.f. UK Climate Committee: 60% by 2030, 80% by 2050

• ?Mark Barrett SeeScen Model?• Germany: Ministry of

Environment & Nature Conservation (BMU) Report =>

• Denmark. Danish Society of Engineers, 2009

• Danish Climate Commission, 2010

• Scenarios for Spain, France, Finland, Turkey etc..

Danish Climate Commission Report 2010• Fossil fuels phased out: 100% renewable energy by 2050

• www.open.ac.uk

• Total costs similar to to conventional

energy incl. fuel• Job creation• No/low carbon

& pollutant emissions

• Energy Security• Technology exists• But Strong

Political Commitment Required!

Conclusion: Renewables Can Supply World’s Energy Needs by 2050