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Zimbabwe’s Agrarian Reform Zimbabwe’s Agrarian Reform and Prospects for Recoveryand Prospects for Recovery
Sam Moyo
29 June 2009
Presented at University of South Africa, “UNISA African Visiting Scholars Lecture
Series” (28-30 June 2009) Pretoria South Africa
Global Political Agreement (GPA) Global Political Agreement (GPA) FRAMING THE DEBATEFRAMING THE DEBATE
1. Political Aspects: National healing; Integration and Deepened Democracy and Rights
2. Economic Policy Framework Liberalisation of Prices, Capital and Current Account Investment Policy (BIPPA’s, Indigenous) Partial Trade liberalisation Regional trade and economic policy harmonisation, and integration ( SADC, COMESA)
3. Agricultural Policy /Agrarian Reform: Bi- Modal Agrarian Development Strategy Promote diverse production and marketing systems; allow diversity; national interests
o Liberalisation of inputs and outputs (Commodity) prices; and Parastatal monopoly o Reform of State interventions (Marketing, new subsidies; public support)
4. Land Reform Irreversibility Framework: Accountability without reversing the redistribution Recognise the New Land Holding Structure and address Exclusions
o Equity Target: Gender, farm workers, ethnic - landless poor, whites and foreign Tenure System Transformed: Diversity of forms need security
o New: Leaseholds, Permits, Freeholds BIPPA’s + CAo Security of four rights (use, transfer, exclusion and protection) and collateral
Sustainable Land Use Regulation o Agricultural uses with support, conservancies, forestry and effective natural resource management systems
Compensation for acquired forms needs negotiation
5. Normalise international relations Isolation (Investment, trade credit, promotion, tourism) Sanctions (access to international financial and institutions – loans
NEED EMPIRICAL GROUNDING
6/29/2009 Sam Moyo 2
1.0 PERSPECTIVES ON ZIMBABWE’S AGRARIAN REFORM (1.1): PRE-20001.0 PERSPECTIVES ON ZIMBABWE’S AGRARIAN REFORM (1.1): PRE-2000
COMMON PERCEPTIONS REALITY
Smallholders “subsistence” producers 80% national food
70% marketed maize, pulses
Most food supplied by large farmers Mainly high value foods
Smallholder high nutrition foods
Little smallholder exports Cotton; Tobacco; Paprika;
Beef via LSCF
Rural employment mainly on large farms LSCF: 320,000 (50% FT)
Com. Areas: 2 million+
Food production was adequate
(“bread basket to basket case”)
Output declines from 1995+
High malnutrition levels then
Customary Tenure Bad
Freehold Tenure good
Mixed performance results
LSCF land underutilization
High smallholder productivity
Historic state investment bias
Wider non-tenure financing base
Environmental “crisis”
in C. Areas
Overcrowding/resilience
Low inputs system
Low water/rainfall resources6/29/2009 Sam Moyo 3
1.2 Perceived post Fast Track land and agrarian 1.2 Perceived post Fast Track land and agrarian outcomesoutcomes
COMMON PERCEPTIONS REALITY
All large framers displaced • Many remaining
Mostly elites got land (Zanu PF) • Non-elites 140,000 (A1)
• 15,500 (A2) – includes ‘petty’ elites
Total agricultural output collapse • Declined overall but complex
• Less for some (eg cotton, beans)
Main problem is lost/lack of skills • Inputs supply is key
Production declines ‘irreversible’ • Slow upward turn (beans, tobac)
All new farmers unproductive • Differentiated investment patterns
• New output focus
No investments on farms
(tenure/banks)
• Financing constraint
• Mixed investment pattern
Support systems dead (inputs/services) • Inadequate/new finance forms
Environment destroyed (trees/animals) • New clearance/regulation!
Land tenure insecurity • Complex interrelated factors
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Farm types/numbers Farm type: Area
New agrarian structure
2.1.22.1.2 Farm size differentiation: class formation?Farm size differentiation: class formation?
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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
1-20
21-50
51-120
121-250
251+
No. beneficiaries
farm
siz
e ra
nges
(ha)
A2
A1
2.3.1 Overall distribution outcome2.3.1 Overall distribution outcome
Arena Benchmark Indices
Land Redistribution Equitability One household, one farm
Class equity (Multiples and oversized)
Gender equity In Own rights 18% Married - most
‘Decongestion’ Some Communal Areas!
Exclusion/Inclusion Ethnicity and Race
Resource Distribution Equitable allocation Irrigation resources to some
Prime infrastructure)to few Agrarian Structure New structure Large, middle farm & small farm
Development strategy Production System New production profiles Part-time/ full time farming
Labour productivity/jobs
Farm establishment Land uptake Land offers, uptake & unallocated land Some land disputes
Integrated Settlement New rural settlements Residential and service centres
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Overall Land Redistribution Issues
2.22.2 Social differentiation of beneficiaries Social differentiation of beneficiaries (origins, jobs, (origins, jobs, labour)labour)
2.2.12.2.1 Origins of the beneficiariesOrigins of the beneficiaries
2.2 Social differentiation of beneficiaries (origins, jobs, labour)
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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Other*
CA
LSCF
Urban area
Employment elsewhere
No. beneficiaries
Origins
Female
Male
A2
A1
2.2.2 Employment histories of beneficiaries: class background?2.2.2 Employment histories of beneficiaries: class background?
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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Other
Security forces
CS unskilled
CS semi-skilled
CS managerial/skilled
Self employed
Pvt unskilled
Pvt semi-skilled
Pvt managerial/skilled
Not employed
Current
Past
*Pvt – Private, CS- Civil Servant ; **Other – Farm worker, domestic worker, informal, student/diaspora
2.2 Gender dimensions of access to redistributed land2.2 Gender dimensions of access to redistributed land
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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Male
Female
No. beneficiaries
Sex of plot ownerA2
A1
2.5.2 Foreign owned farms a key battle 2.5.2 Foreign owned farms a key battle (500 000 ha)(500 000 ha)
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3.0 EMERGING LAND TENURE SYSTEM & SECURITY ISSUES3.0 EMERGING LAND TENURE SYSTEM & SECURITY ISSUES
6/29/2009 Sam Moyo 12
KEY ISSUES FREEHOLD LEASEHOLD PERMITS (old & new/A1)
CUSTOMARY STATE LAND
Legal basis Assigned Few remain Expanded
(ca 20,000)Expanded (ca 250,000)
1.2 million
Duration Perpetual 25 to 99 years Perpetual Perpetual ?
Records (survey/registration)
Few (116) registered or surveyed
Not yet N/A Few unrecorded
Collaterable Sometimes? No No
Transactable Yes on approval Not in law but informally
Informally
Inheritable Yes Yes Yes (customary law)
Yes (subject to customary law)
N/A
Gender rights
Spouse right optional
Spouse right registrable
Spouse right registrable
Customary practice
N/A
Figure 4.3: Land Use Trends: Maize production Figure 4.3: Land Use Trends: Maize production in Zimbabwein Zimbabwe
6/29/2009 Sam Moyo 13
Figure 4.5: Key exports’ output trendsFigure 4.5: Key exports’ output trends
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Fig. 4.6: Soya beans, groundnuts, beans & sunflower output trendsFig. 4.6: Soya beans, groundnuts, beans & sunflower output trends
6/29/2009 Sam Moyo 15
5.0 UNDERSTANDING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION DECLINE5.0 UNDERSTANDING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION DECLINE
5.1 Dominant Perspectives on Causes of Agricultural Decline5.1 Dominant Perspectives on Causes of Agricultural Decline
6/29/2009 Sam Moyo 16
Chart 5.1 Policy matrix: factors affecting agricultural productionChart 5.1 Policy matrix: factors affecting agricultural production
6/29/2009 Sam Moyo 17
POLICY ARENA CONSTRAINING FACTOR/ PROCESSES SOURCE FACTORWEATHER Droughts, flooding
Mitigation/irrigationExternal Technology
LAND TRANSFERS AND TENURE
Reduced sizes/area planted (some crops) Land disputes and conflicts Tenure security
Wider policy
Land tenure
New resource & production structure
INPUTS USE
Agro-industrial supply bottlenecks (Seed, fertilizer, agro-chemicals)
Distribution bottlenecks (markets/transport) Access/affordability (credit)
Macro-econ and agricultural policy
constraint
Technology &
capital
FARMER SKILLS AND ORGANIZATION
Skills “deficit” Extension services deficiency New farmer organization
Micro-institutional Extension
Training
FARM INVESTMENTS AND FINANCING
On-farm infrastructure/irrigation deficits Domestic financing models/deficiency
State (Credit/subsidies): inadequate Private (credit/sub-contract)
External financing (BoP loss) Retreat of merchants (tobacco, hort) Bretton Woods/Bi-lateral loans loss
Smallholder recovery aid deficits
Macro-econ policy
Deficiency & negative external policies (isolation/ratings)
Finance
System shift
Reduced lending
MARKETS LOSS
Marketing channels control/monopolies (capacity, incoherence, infeasible)
Price controls: Unviable/infeasible External agricultural markets loss Tourists (image) and multipliers loss, trade
restrictions, smuggling
External policies and economic policy incoherence
Roles of state, markets; external relations
5.2 Proximate Causes and Factors of Decline5.2 Proximate Causes and Factors of Decline
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Fig 5.1: Zimbabwe Fertilizer Production and Consumption: 1999 - 2008
6.1 Dominant Perspectives on Agrarian Decline & Recovery6.1 Dominant Perspectives on Agrarian Decline & Recovery
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COMMON PERCEPTIONS EMERGING REALITIESRecovery possible only if LSCF is reconstituted
Dynamic/diverse forms of farming at play
Reproducing past output patterns is most beneficial
Yes for food but broader outputs
Why continue some exports (e.g. tobacco)
Some exports are too complex for small farmers
Exports contribution curve is growing
Investment only if “title” is provided to all farmers
Non-freehold investment occurs
Enabling new farmers works
Financing is limited by scale economies and title
New market structures emerging
New financing mechanisms emerging
Environmental “crisis” or tragedy is pending
Land clearing is stabilizing New forms of environmental
stewardship
6.2 Proposed Framework for Agrarian Recovery6.2 Proposed Framework for Agrarian Recovery
6/29/2009 Sam Moyo 20
Macroeconomic Policy Environment
(heterodoxy/regulation and markets, and aid)
Agricultural Policy Environment: markets and public services
(sub-sectoral capacities, extension, research and subsidies)
Agro-industrial Sector and Trade Policies
(Agricultural markets; agro-processors; input suppliers; etc)
Social Policy and agricultural/economic policy linkages
(food, farm incomes, farm labour)
Land tenure and/or property rights; improved land access
(forms of secure tenure, tenure administration, compensation)
CONCLUDING COMMENTCONCLUDING COMMENT
A sustainable agrarian reform:◦Ensure national ownership of the strategy and
implementation
◦Embedded in equitable designed integration
Agenda requires more research and analysis than is so far evident
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