1Excellence in Market Intelligence 1
Global HVAC Trends
Andrew GilesChillventa
ForumOctober 2014
3Excellence in Market Intelligence
Our main methodology – expert interviews top players
3
Small companies
Large companies
Source: Market Research Society
Interview all of these
Interview a sample of theseDirector of
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence•29 years at BSRIA•Natural Sciences
Cambridge [email protected]
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Global HVAC markets agendaAgenda
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AC Global trends
Critical
Very Certain
Energy Efficiency and renewables
Market Globalization & Industry consolidation
Refrigerants
VRF vs. Chiller
Market Drivers
Joint VenturesAnd Alliances
European Economy
Market Restraints
Emerging CountriesMaterial
cost
Chinese growth slowdown
Smart buildings smart homes
Legislation
Ventilation/DOAS
US recovery
6Excellence in Market Intelligence
Global Major Regions HVAC Market Value
Europe analysis based on following countries: Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK
Total 2013 market value: €100bn
NAmerica€22.7bln
China€39.0bln
Japan€14.0bn Europe
€25.9bln
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World air conditioning market, 2012-2017
Total 2014: 128.5 million units
Total 2013: Euro 72.3 billion
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Top 12 Expectations for 2014
Ranking Country Trend Market Value* Market growth**(%) Hot products
UKGermany
ItalySaudi Arabia
Australia
Russia
India
S. Korea
Brazil
USAJapan
China
12 + 7%803 Ductless, VRF, Chillers
11 833 + 5% Ductless, VRF
10 959 - 13% None
9 974 + 2% None992 + 13% Ductless, VRF8
7 1,016 + 1% None
* In Euro million for 2014 * * Forecasted growth rate from 2014 to 2015
6 1,657 + 14% Ductless, VRF, Chillers
1,678 + 1% None52,172 + 16% Ductless, VRF, Chillers48,255 + 1% None310,302 + 9% Ductless, VRF, Chillers
25,827 + 3% VRF, Chillers
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World fastest growing markets, CAGR 2012-17
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Warm spots >5-10% growthCold spots <0% growth
Hot spots >10% growth
India
Indonesia
Russia
ColombiaNigeria
Brazil
VenezuelaVietnam
China
Argentina
UK
South Africa
Mexico
Turkey
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Europe AC market growth – 2013-14e
UK France RussiaSpainItaly
30%
24%
18%
12%
6%
0%
-6%
-12%
-18%
-24%
-30%
GermanyTurkey
Splits+VRF (by volume)
Chillers (by value)
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Expected future growth for Europe (CAGR – 2012-2017)
UK France RussiaSpainItaly
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
GermanyTurkey
Splits+VRF (by volume)
Chillers (by value)
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Global minisplit market – 2014 e
Top 10 countries in Europe in 2014 by units (number of outdoor units) – 6.5 million units
representing 6% of global total
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Global minisplit market – Europe trends
What we might have said earlier this year
?? Now highly uncertain, BSRIA researching
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World inverter air conditioning market
2013 total market sizes
Inverters (single + multi) by volume
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Global drivers
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Importance
Degree of Adoptionlow
high
medhigh
med
• In EU countries supermarkets and energy efficiency are key• In India, China and Brazil, improving the food chain is a main driver
EU Legislation/Outlawing of R22; Directive 2009/125/EC on Ecodesign1 a framework for energy reduction
Supermarkets –Energy Efficiency/Green credentials
Improve food chain/avoid
waste
Discount stores – Lidl,
Aldi etc.
Smaller supermarkets
Design
Reliability
Quick installation
Price of Copper
Reduce noise levels
Inverters
16Excellence in Market Intelligence
Growth in refrigeration, by country, by value, CAGR
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2012 total: 31,034.5 US$ million
14.5%
8.7%
7.6%
7.0%
4.2%
3.7%
2.7%
2.5%
1.6%
17Excellence in Market Intelligence
BSRIA as an advisor on refrigeration
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RED AMBER GREEN
Indicative energy savings Low savings Medium savings High savings
Where technology can be applied Limited application Some application, but not widespread
Universal application
Ease of application Complex Medium Simple
Maintenance of technology Complex Medium Simple
Interaction with other technologies High interaction Some interaction No interaction
Impact on water use High Medium None
Applicability to Saudi Arabia Not applicable May be applicable Applicable
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ErP - Impact on products
Increase in Combined and Hybrid systemsEco Design
A +++ ≥150%
A ++ ≥125%
A + ≥98%
A ≥90%
B ≥82%
C ≥75%
D ≥36%
E ≥34%
CogenerationGas HP
Condensing boilers
Non-condensing
boilers
Ground /Water to water HP
Air to water HP
From 26/9/2015 products with Label D to G are no longer allowed to be sold
Hybrid Heat Pumps
Combined CB + ST system
+ enhanced Controls
Fuel cell
Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015
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Boiler technology shiftDomestic gas and oil boiler sales 2012 - 2017
Outside the EU marketInside the EU market‘000 units‘000 units
Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of 9 largest European markets Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of Turkey, Russia, China, S. Korea
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Hybrid heat pumpsMarket potential by 2020
unitsCAGR 2014-2020
+51.7%
Hybrid BoxGas cond. boiler & A/W
monobloc HP
Modulo HybridoGas cond. boiler & A/W
split HP
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2020 European heating marketTop 6 Heating market by volume of sales, 2012 – 2020 – wall hung condensing, wall hung
non-condensing , floor standing, biomass, solar thermal & heat pump
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‘000 units
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Renewables sales curve until 2035Powerful drivers for new technologies after 2020
Units
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