Supporting Information
Assessment of Plastic Stocks and Flows in
China: 1978-2017
Xiaobin Jianga,b, Tao Wangc,d, Meng Jianga, Ming Xue,f, Yadong Yug, Baohua
Guoa,h, Dingjiang Chena,b, Shanying Hua,b, Jian Jianga, Yupeng Zhanga, Bing
Zhua,b,i,*
a Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, Chinab Institute for Circular Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, Chinac Institute for Advanced Study, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, Chinad UNEP-Tongji Institute of Environment for Sustainable Development, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, Chinae School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-1041, USAf Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2125, USAg School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, Chinah Advanced Materials Laboratory of Ministry of Education, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, Chinai Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
1
⁎ Corresponding author at: Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.E-mail address: [email protected] (B. Zhu)
Count: 22 pages, 14 tables, 2 figures.
2
Contents
S1. Data Source....................................................................................................3
S2. Lifetime Distribution Model............................................................................10
S3. Supplement Results......................................................................................12
References..........................................................................................................17
3
S1. Data Source
In the production stage, the main input variables are the domestic
production of primary plastic ( ) and refer to the import of primary
plastic ( ), and the export of primary plastic ( ). Detailed values and
sources are indicated in Table S1.
Table S1 Detailed data and source of the primary plastic (Mt/a)
Type PE PP PVC PS ABSYear1978 0.24 0.49 0.00 0.07 0.20 0.00 0.26 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
1980 0.30 0.61 0.00 0.10 0.26 0.00 0.38 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00
1985 0.34 0.68 0.00 0.13 0.36 0.00 0.51 0.06 0.02 0.03 0.12 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.00
1990 0.78 0.30 0.00 0.38 0.14 0.01 0.79 0.03 0.11 0.09 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.00
1995 1.37 1.83 0.01 1.15 1.07 0.01 1.37 0.58 0.08 0.26 1.07 0.07 0.04 0.80 0.01
2000 3.00 2.97 0.01 3.24 1.64 0.01 2.40 1.92 0.04 0.75 1.53 0.07 0.13 1.47 0.03
2005 5.04 5.26 0.06 5.23 3.02 0.02 6.49 1.66 0.15 2.51 1.42 0.13 1.04 1.99 0.01
2010 9.86 7.36 0.16 10.30 4.90 0.09 11.51 1.51 0.27 1.55 1.15 0.36 1.97 2.17 0.06
2015 13.86 9.87 0.27 16.86 3.40 0.17 16.09 0.93 0.88 3.01 0.78 0.33 3.10 1.63 0.02
2017 14.72 11.79 0.25 19.01 3.18 0.30 17.90 1.00 1.10 3.21 0.74 0.33 3.21 1.79 0.04
Reference 1-4 1-3, 5 1-3, 5 1-3, 6 1-3, 7
Figure S1 presents the share of the production and consumption of the
“Major Five” plastic among all plastic types in China from 1978 to 2017.
4
Figure S1 Historical trend of the production and consumption of the major five resins
In the manufacturing and use stage, the bottom-up and top-down
approaches are combined to calculate the flows. The bottom-up approach can
cover more detailed information on the stocks in the sectoral and spatial
level8. However, it only focuses on a limited number of sectors and might
provide incomplete information on the stock in the whole economic system9. A
top-down method could provide a comprehensive economy-wide estimation of
the in-use plastic stock, which avoids incompleteness in results derived from
the bottom-up method. Based on the characteristics of China's plastic
materials and the availability of data, we have adopted a combination of top-
down and bottom-up methods to depict the most realistic plastic flow
distribution.
For the top-down method, the main input variables are product split ratios
5
( ) and the sector split ratios ( ). Detailed values and sources are
indicated in Table S2.
Table S2 Detailed data and source of the top-down method
Type Manufacturing Reference Use Reference
PE
Film 52.50%-60.52%
1,4, 10,11,12,13
Packaging *
B & C Bottom-up 14
Agriculture 21.07-34.11% 1,4,10
Woven goods 4.39%-9.10% Packaging 100% 1
STP&C 15.60%-23.26%
B & C *
Automobile Bottom-up 15,1
Electronics Bottom-up 16, 17, 1, 15
Agriculture 9.41%-16.07% 18, 1,4, 10,11,12,13
Cables 1.01%-3.37% Electronics 100% 1
Others 11.57%-15.82%Packaging 47.28%-59.06% 1,12,4,10
Others 41.03%-52.72% 1,12,4,10
PP
Film 14.91%-24.30%
1,2,19,20,21,22,23
Packaging *
Automobile Bottom-up 15,1
Electronics Bottom-up 16, 17, 1, 15
Others 34.78%-41.10% 24,25,26
Woven goods 29.60%-50.80% Packaging 100% 1,2
STP&C 20.94%-35.50%
B & C *
Automobile Bottom-up 15,1
Electronics Bottom-up 16, 17, 1, 15
Agriculture 2.89%-6.60% 18,19, 1,2
Others 11.20%-20.05% Others 100%Expert
estimation
PVC
Film 12.50%-18.80%
1,2,27,28,29 Packaging *
B & C Bottom-up 30
Agriculture 3.95%-15.80%31,32,33, expert
estimation
Others Bottom-up 34, 35
STP&C 19.40%-55.00%
B & C *
Automobile Bottom-up 15,1
Electronics Bottom-up 16, 17, 1, 15
Agriculture 5.11%-22.30% 18, 1,2,27,28,29
Synthetic leather 6.00%-15.00% Automobile 5.62%-8.13% 36,37
Others 91.87%-94.38% 36,37
6
Cables 3.60%-16.10% Electronics 100% 1,2
Others 16.70%-32.20%Packaging 12.07%-29.94% 1,27
Others 70.06%-87.93% 1,27
PS
STP&C 26.95%-51.33%
1,2,38
Packaging 22.45%-25.54% 1,2
Electronics 74.46%-77.55% 1,2
Foam plastics 18.48%-46.00%
Packaging 45.00% 1
B & C 48.00% 1
Others 7.00% 1
Others 27.54%-30.19% Others 100%Expert
estimation
ABSSTP&C 79.00%-89.50%
1,2,39,40,7
Automobile 0%-16.85% 1,2,39,40,7
Electronics 83.15%-100% 1,2,39,40,7
Others 10.50%-21.00% Others 100%Expert
estimation
*: Following the principle of conservation of mass, * indicates that the product f
made of plastic p that flows into the sector i is the total inflow of the product f made of
plastic p in the use phase minus the inflow of other sectors.
For the bottom-up method, the main input variables are the quantity of
product ( ) and quantity of plastic of an individual product ( ). The
detailed source is indicated in Table S3. The bottom-up method is also used to
calculate the plastic content in the trade flow of automobiles and electronics.
Table S3 Detailed source of the bottom-up method
Sector Product Plastics TypeAutomobiles Automobile PE,PP,PVC,ABS 1 15
Electronics
Refrigerator PE,PP,PVC,PS,ABS 16 15
Air Conditioning PE,PP,PVC,PS,ABS 17, 1 15
Washing Machine PE,PP,PVC,PS,ABS 16, 1 15
TV set PE,PP,PVC,PS,ABS 17, 1 15
B & CWoodgrain Film PVC 30
Geomembrane PE 14
Others Lamp-box Cloth Film PVC 34 35
It should be noted that a small part of plastic in the manufacturing stage
7
is lost as pre-consumer waste and flows into the recycling system, which is
calculated by the scrap rates in the manufacturing ( ). We assumed that the
manufacturing scrap ratios of different plastic-type in Europe were the same
as China. Specifically, the manufacturing scrap ratios of PE, PP, PVC, and PS
in the manufacturing stage in China’s plastic industry are the same as in
Europe. The manufacturing scrap ratio of ABS in China is calculated using the
overall scrap ratio of the four above plastics due to a lack of comparable data.
The detailed data are presented in table S4.
Table S4 Detailed data and source of the manufacturing scrap ratio
TypeReference
PE 6.52% 41
PP 6.95% 41
PVC 5.81% 41
PS 6.40% 41
ABS 6.49% 41
The waste plastic flowing into the recycling system includes three
sources: plastic recycling from post-consumer plastic waste, plastic recycling
from pre-consumer plastic waste and plastic recycling from plastic waste
imports. The detailed data and source are shown in Table S5.
The total recycling amount from post-consumer plastic waste is
calculated based on the apparent plastic use in the use stage and the
recycling ratio. Then the recycling amount from post-consumer plastic waste
in B&C, automobiles, electronics, and agriculture sectors could be calculated
8
by the recycling ratios and post-consumer plastic waste generated from
corresponding sectors. The recycling amount of post-consumer plastic waste
generated from the packaging sector and the other sector is calculated by
subtracting the recycling amount of the above four sectors from the total
recycling amount.
Pre-consumer plastic waste is generated from the manufacturing stage.
Because these wastes are produced centrally on the factory assembly line,
they are usually used as raw materials on the spot or collected into the
recycling system. So we assumed that all pre-consumer plastic waste would
flow into the recycling system.
China’s plastic waste imports are mainly utilized for recycling to substitute
virgin plastic resin as secondary plastic resources42, 43. So we assumed that all
plastic waste imports would flow into the recycling system.
Table S5 Detailed data and source of the recycling ratios
Type ReferencesRecycling ratios to the apparent plastic use in the use stage 12.63%-23.17% 1
Recycling ratio to the post-consumer plastic
waste
B&CSTP&C 75.00% 44
Other products 0.00% Expert estimation
Automobiles 27.69% 45,46
Electronics 92.30% 47
AgricultureFilm 15.00% 48
STP&C 100.00% Expert estimation
Recycling ratio to the pre-consumer plastic waste 100% Expert estimation
Recycling ratio to the import plastic waste 100% 42,43
When the plastic wastes flow into the recycling system, not all of them
can be converted into secondary resources because of losses in the recycling
9
process led by management capacity, technology level, and transportation.
The values and source of the recycling conversion ratio, which is the
proportion of total recycling amount converted to secondary material, are
shown in Table S6.
Table S6 Detailed data and source of the recycling conversion ratio
TypeReference
PE 76.19% 41
PP 40.34% 41
PVC 79.31% 41
PS 77.72% 41
ABS 68.38% 41
Due to the lack of relevant statistics and researches in China, we adopted
the recycling conversion ratio in the study from study on European system41.
We have also verified this assumption and data with experts from the China
Plastics Processing Industry Association and Plastics Recycling Branch of the
China Synthetic Resin Association - the technology levels of recycling are
similar in China and the European Union. We have also added a sensitivity
analysis to test the robustness of our final results in the cases of ±10%
change in conversion rates of recycling (please see Figure R1 and Figure 6 in
the manuscript). Our results show that the impact of this assumption is minor -
the largest impacts occurred in the amount of second material (~12%) but
only ~5% changes for other results, which is presented in Figure 6.
The losses in the recycling stage and the post-consumer plastic waste
10
cannot be recycled will be disposed of by incineration, landfilling, or just
exposed to the environment without any treatment. The values and sources of
the ratios of incineration, landfill, and untreatment are presented in Table S7.
Table S7 Detailed data and source of the end-of-life treatment ratios
Type References
Use sector
Packaging 2.49%-39.33% 43.11%-61.55% 2.26%-49.22% 15
B&C - 100% - Expert estimation
Automobiles - 100% - Expert estimation
Electronics - 100% - Expert estimation
Agriculture - 100% - Expert estimation
Others 2.49%-39.33% 43.11%-61.55% 2.26%-49.22% 15
Recycling systerm 2.49%-39.33% 43.11%-61.55% 2.26%-49.22% 15
There are also some assumptions used to bullid the dynamic MFA model
of China’s plastic. Detailed assumptions and sources are presented in Table
S8.
Table S8 Assumptions and sources of the dynamic MFA model of China’s plastics
Assumptions ReferencePlastic losses during use due to degradation, abrasion or other dissipative phenomena are assumed to be negligible.
49,50
Only the residence time in the use stage is considered, and the plastic flow within and between other stages is assumed to be instantaneous.
51
The data availability of all kind of ratios used by this study could not cover all the years from 1978 to 2017, so these ratios are assumed to maintain the same in adjacent years.
52
The lifetime of various products containing plastic material is mainly dependent on the sectors where the products are applied.
52
The lifespans of plastic products are assumed to be the same from 1978 to 2017. 52
Imported plastic wastes are fully used for recycling. 52
The shares of landfilling and incineration of municipal solid waste in China are the same as plastic waste generated from the sector of packaging and others.
52,49
S2. Lifetime Distribution Model
11
Dynamic-MFA models of in-use material stocks apply different functional
forms for the lifetime distributions of products. The model of lifetime
distributions usually used fixed lifetimes53, normal distributions (symmetrical)49,
Weibull distributions (right-skewed)51 or Gompertz distributions (left-skewed)54.
Krausmann, et al. 56 distinguished 11 types of in-use stock and found that each
of these stock types comprises stocks with different lifetime characteristics.
Because of this heterogeneity within stock types, in absence of detailed
information on lifetime distribution and which side of ‘skewness’ best fits the
global reality, we consider symmetrical distribution as the best compromise,
which is also in line with the Central Limit Theorem.
where refers to the probability that products in sector i will be
scrapped in time after years later. is the location parameter of sector i,
which is equal to the mean lifetime; is the shape parameter of sector i. The
lifetime parameter is the most important but most poorly understood factor57.
These parameters refer to the values of other literature as shown in Table S9.
Table S9 Parameters of lifetime distribution of plastics products in different sectors
Sector Mean Lifetime Reference Shape parameter Reference
12
Packaging 1 58 1
Building & Construction
40 52 15 49
Automobile 15 59 7 49
Electronics 10 60 4 49
Agriculture 2 60 2 55
Others 6 55 2 55
The demolition of the in-use stock in each sector is estimated by
respective lifetime distribution functions. The calculations results show that
the plastic flow into use would survive after a certain time61. In another word,
the survival function is the integral form of the lifetime distribution function.
The life distribution results are shown in Figure S2.
Figure S2. Survival ratios for different sectors.
S3. Supplement Results
Table S10 Plastic use by sector (Mt/a)
13
Year Packaging B&C Automobile Electronics Agriculture Others1978 0.52 0.23 0.01 0.07 0.16 0.091980 0.77 0.33 0.01 0.12 0.23 0.141985 0.95 0.31 0.03 0.33 0.27 0.211990 1.00 0.38 0.03 0.31 0.30 0.291995 3.54 1.69 0.10 1.27 0.83 0.792000 7.92 3.59 0.19 2.39 1.13 1.492005 12.70 6.11 0.41 3.19 1.84 2.512010 20.02 10.32 1.45 4.66 3.35 5.672015 25.38 15.67 2.00 6.52 5.46 7.362017 26.19 14.92 2.25 6.73 5.28 7.95
Table S11 Plastic stocks by sector (Mt)
Year Packaging B&C Automobile Electronics Agriculture Others1978 0.44 0.23 0.01 0.07 0.13 0.091980 0.55 0.83 0.03 0.28 0.29 0.331985 0.62 2.48 0.11 1.22 0.41 0.881990 0.65 4.23 0.25 2.44 0.49 1.301995 1.53 10.15 0.56 5.47 1.04 2.642000 3.09 23.79 1.13 12.46 1.55 5.962005 4.86 49.83 2.40 21.18 2.46 9.592010 7.47 91.10 5.96 33.62 4.29 18.252015 9.37 154.87 13.06 45.87 7.08 36.502017 9.72 182.57 16.44 50.37 7.27 38.13
Table S12 Wastes by sector (Mt/a)
Year Packaging B&C Automobile Electronics Agriculture Others1978 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.001980 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.011985 0.94 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.26 0.131990 1.05 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.32 0.211995 3.32 0.04 0.02 0.33 0.69 0.342000 7.53 0.08 0.04 0.72 1.10 0.812005 12.50 0.18 0.08 1.53 1.71 1.572010 19.44 0.37 0.19 2.62 2.92 2.252015 24.62 0.71 0.42 3.94 4.92 6.102017 25.78 0.88 0.56 4.49 5.19 7.37
Table S13 End-of-life treatment (Mt/a)
14
Year Secondary material Incineration Landfill Untreatment1978 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.011980 0.21 0.02 0.43 0.351985 0.32 0.03 0.67 0.531990 0.42 0.03 0.87 0.681995 1.20 0.09 2.18 1.852000 3.25 0.22 4.63 4.322005 6.91 0.73 7.65 6.922010 11.57 3.22 15.53 4.852015 15.72 10.41 22.67 1.902017 13.20 14.53 24.20 0.84
Table S14 Detailed data of Figure 2 (Mt)
Stage PE PP PVC PS ABS Total
Production
Domestic primary plastic production 169.90 181.25 198.80 44.17 30.79 624.90Primary plastic import 143.61 70.99 35.25 31.71 40.42 321.98Primary plastic export 2.54 1.79 9.49 4.65 0.78 19.25Secondary material 82.28 30.45 41.72 16.46 21.18 192.10
Manufacturing
Film
Production 225.16 53.19 39.83 318.18Import 4.18 0.50 0.32 5.01Export 24.08 1.53 0.94 26.54Scrap 14.68 3.70 2.31 20.69
Woven goods
Production 27.47 114.10 141.57Import 0.00 0.00 0.00Export 1.72 7.78 9.50Scrap 1.79 7.93 9.72
STP&C
Production 78.28 74.21 123.77 28.33 81.02 385.61Import 3.55 3.95 8.03 0.99 2.07 18.59Export 9.54 8.66 33.66 2.50 4.99 59.35Scrap 5.10 5.16 7.19 1.81 5.26 24.52
Synthetic leather
Production 21.09 21.09Import 1.41 1.41Export 0.70 0.70Scrap 1.23 1.23
Foam plastics
Production 34.59 34.59Import 0.03 0.03Export 0.21 0.21Scrap 2.21 2.21
Cables Production 8.88 18.77 27.65Import 0.00 0.00 0.00Export 3.25 5.97 9.22
15
Scrap 0.58 1.09 1.67
Others
Production 53.56 39.41 62.83 24.77 10.58 191.14Import 1.27 0.93 1.73 0.77 0.30 5.00Export 24.63 20.18 36.43 13.15 5.51 99.89Scrap 3.49 2.74 3.65 1.58 0.69 12.15
Use
Packaging
Film 143.96 28.86 22.89 195.71Woven goods 23.96 98.39 122.34
STP&C 5.91 5.91Foam plastics 14.49 14.49
Others 14.52 5.00 19.52
B&C
Film 1.72 1.10 2.82STP&C 57.96 40.01 73.43 171.40
Foam plastics 15.45 15.45
Automobiles
Film 0.05 0.05STP&C 1.76 5.50 3.20 8.29 18.75
Synthetic leather
1.43 1.43
Import 0.08 0.28 0.16 0.11 0.62Export 0.07 0.24 0.14 0.09 0.53
Electronics
Film 0.98 0.98STP&C 0.39 16.01 2.64 19.10 63.21 101.34Cables 5.05 11.71 16.76Import 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.08 0.94 1.08Export 0.18 5.91 1.06 7.46 8.14 22.74
AgricultureFilm 44.91 1.31 46.23
STP&C 7.08 2.81 11.68 21.58
Others
Film 18.58 11.58 30.16Synthetic leather
19.15 19.15
Foam plastic 2.25 2.25Others 12.19 17.42 23.56 10.80 4.69 68.66Import 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.19Export 6.44 1.80 7.14 6.94 2.99 25.32
Recycling
Post-consumer
Packaging 30.85 21.49 4.56 3.49 60.39B&C 1.67 1.02 2.06 0.00 4.75
Automobiles 0.18 0.25 0.28 0.36 1.08Electronics 1.63 4.65 5.07 8.63 23.43 43.42Agriculture 12.41 2.46 9.82 24.69
Others 0.40 3.07 5.08 0.62 0.11 9.29Pre-consumer 25.65 19.52 15.47 5.61 5.95 72.20
Import 39.50 26.84 14.27 3.59 4.24 88.44Export 0.02 0.56 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.70
16
Waste mangement
Landfill
Packaging 80.81 55.94 12.22 8.73 157.71B&C 0.64 0.34 0.82 0.56 2.35
Automobiles 0.48 0.65 0.74 0.94 2.81Electronics 0.14 0.39 0.42 0.72 1.95 3.62Agriculture 34.78 0.00 1.06 35.84
Others 1.39 8.96 14.27 1.81 0.41 26.85Recycling
losses14.61 25.10 6.37 2.53 5.93 54.54
Incineration
Packaging 27.04 17.67 4.01 2.29 51.01Others 0.71 3.76 5.42 0.77 0.22 10.88
Recycling losses
4.89 7.75 2.13 0.67 2.18 17.62
Untreatment
Packaging 38.62 28.80 6.20 5.52 79.14Automobiles 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Others 0.33 3.02 5.88 0.64 0.09 9.95Recycling
losses6.50 12.75 2.89 1.53 2.36 26.03
Secondary material Recycling 82.28 30.45 41.72 16.46 21.18 192.10
17
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