ars.els-cdn.com · Web view3. China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Statistics Annual Report; Beijing, 1978-2005. 4. Tang, W., Polyethylene

Supporting Information

Assessment of Plastic Stocks and Flows in

China: 1978-2017

Xiaobin Jianga,b, Tao Wangc,d, Meng Jianga, Ming Xue,f, Yadong Yug, Baohua

Guoa,h, Dingjiang Chena,b, Shanying Hua,b, Jian Jianga, Yupeng Zhanga, Bing

Zhua,b,i,*

a Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, Chinab Institute for Circular Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, Chinac Institute for Advanced Study, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, Chinad UNEP-Tongji Institute of Environment for Sustainable Development, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, Chinae School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-1041, USAf Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2125, USAg School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, Chinah Advanced Materials Laboratory of Ministry of Education, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, Chinai Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

1

⁎ Corresponding author at: Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.E-mail address: [email protected] (B. Zhu)

Count: 22 pages, 14 tables, 2 figures.

2

mailto:[email protected]

Contents

S1. Data Source....................................................................................................3

S2. Lifetime Distribution Model............................................................................10

S3. Supplement Results......................................................................................12

References..........................................................................................................17

3

S1. Data Source

In the production stage, the main input variables are the domestic

production of primary plastic ( ) and refer to the import of primary

plastic ( ), and the export of primary plastic ( ). Detailed values and

sources are indicated in Table S1.

Table S1 Detailed data and source of the primary plastic (Mt/a)

Type PE PP PVC PS ABSYear1978 0.24 0.49 0.00 0.07 0.20 0.00 0.26 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

1980 0.30 0.61 0.00 0.10 0.26 0.00 0.38 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00

1985 0.34 0.68 0.00 0.13 0.36 0.00 0.51 0.06 0.02 0.03 0.12 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.00

1990 0.78 0.30 0.00 0.38 0.14 0.01 0.79 0.03 0.11 0.09 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.00

1995 1.37 1.83 0.01 1.15 1.07 0.01 1.37 0.58 0.08 0.26 1.07 0.07 0.04 0.80 0.01

2000 3.00 2.97 0.01 3.24 1.64 0.01 2.40 1.92 0.04 0.75 1.53 0.07 0.13 1.47 0.03

2005 5.04 5.26 0.06 5.23 3.02 0.02 6.49 1.66 0.15 2.51 1.42 0.13 1.04 1.99 0.01

2010 9.86 7.36 0.16 10.30 4.90 0.09 11.51 1.51 0.27 1.55 1.15 0.36 1.97 2.17 0.06

2015 13.86 9.87 0.27 16.86 3.40 0.17 16.09 0.93 0.88 3.01 0.78 0.33 3.10 1.63 0.02

2017 14.72 11.79 0.25 19.01 3.18 0.30 17.90 1.00 1.10 3.21 0.74 0.33 3.21 1.79 0.04

Reference 1-4 1-3, 5 1-3, 5 1-3, 6 1-3, 7

Figure S1 presents the share of the production and consumption of the

“Major Five” plastic among all plastic types in China from 1978 to 2017.

4

Figure S1 Historical trend of the production and consumption of the major five resins

In the manufacturing and use stage, the bottom-up and top-down

approaches are combined to calculate the flows. The bottom-up approach can

cover more detailed information on the stocks in the sectoral and spatial

level8. However, it only focuses on a limited number of sectors and might

provide incomplete information on the stock in the whole economic system9. A

top-down method could provide a comprehensive economy-wide estimation of

the in-use plastic stock, which avoids incompleteness in results derived from

the bottom-up method. Based on the characteristics of China's plastic

materials and the availability of data, we have adopted a combination of top-

down and bottom-up methods to depict the most realistic plastic flow

distribution.

For the top-down method, the main input variables are product split ratios

5

( ) and the sector split ratios ( ). Detailed values and sources are

indicated in Table S2.

Table S2 Detailed data and source of the top-down method

Type Manufacturing Reference Use Reference

PE

Film 52.50%-60.52%

1,4, 10,11,12,13

Packaging *

B & C Bottom-up 14

Agriculture 21.07-34.11% 1,4,10

Woven goods 4.39%-9.10% Packaging 100% 1

STP&C 15.60%-23.26%

B & C *

Automobile Bottom-up 15,1

Electronics Bottom-up 16, 17, 1, 15

Agriculture 9.41%-16.07% 18, 1,4, 10,11,12,13

Cables 1.01%-3.37% Electronics 100% 1

Others 11.57%-15.82%Packaging 47.28%-59.06% 1,12,4,10

Others 41.03%-52.72% 1,12,4,10

PP

Film 14.91%-24.30%

1,2,19,20,21,22,23

Packaging *



Others 34.78%-41.10% 24,25,26

Woven goods 29.60%-50.80% Packaging 100% 1,2

STP&C 20.94%-35.50%

B & C *



Agriculture 2.89%-6.60% 18,19, 1,2

Others 11.20%-20.05% Others 100%Expert

estimation

PVC

Film 12.50%-18.80%

1,2,27,28,29 Packaging *

B & C Bottom-up 30

Agriculture 3.95%-15.80%31,32,33, expert

estimation

Others Bottom-up 34, 35

STP&C 19.40%-55.00%

B & C *



Agriculture 5.11%-22.30% 18, 1,2,27,28,29

Synthetic leather 6.00%-15.00% Automobile 5.62%-8.13% 36,37

Others 91.87%-94.38% 36,37

6

Cables 3.60%-16.10% Electronics 100% 1,2

Others 16.70%-32.20%Packaging 12.07%-29.94% 1,27

Others 70.06%-87.93% 1,27

PS

STP&C 26.95%-51.33%

1,2,38

Packaging 22.45%-25.54% 1,2

Electronics 74.46%-77.55% 1,2

Foam plastics 18.48%-46.00%

Packaging 45.00% 1

B & C 48.00% 1

Others 7.00% 1


estimation

ABSSTP&C 79.00%-89.50%

1,2,39,40,7

Automobile 0%-16.85% 1,2,39,40,7

Electronics 83.15%-100% 1,2,39,40,7


estimation

*: Following the principle of conservation of mass, * indicates that the product f

made of plastic p that flows into the sector i is the total inflow of the product f made of

plastic p in the use phase minus the inflow of other sectors.

For the bottom-up method, the main input variables are the quantity of

product ( ) and quantity of plastic of an individual product ( ). The

detailed source is indicated in Table S3. The bottom-up method is also used to

calculate the plastic content in the trade flow of automobiles and electronics.

Table S3 Detailed source of the bottom-up method

Sector Product Plastics TypeAutomobiles Automobile PE,PP,PVC,ABS 1 15

Electronics

Refrigerator PE,PP,PVC,PS,ABS 16 15

Air Conditioning PE,PP,PVC,PS,ABS 17, 1 15

Washing Machine PE,PP,PVC,PS,ABS 16, 1 15

TV set PE,PP,PVC,PS,ABS 17, 1 15

B & CWoodgrain Film PVC 30

Geomembrane PE 14

Others Lamp-box Cloth Film PVC 34 35

It should be noted that a small part of plastic in the manufacturing stage

7

is lost as pre-consumer waste and flows into the recycling system, which is

calculated by the scrap rates in the manufacturing ( ). We assumed that the

manufacturing scrap ratios of different plastic-type in Europe were the same

as China. Specifically, the manufacturing scrap ratios of PE, PP, PVC, and PS

in the manufacturing stage in China’s plastic industry are the same as in

Europe. The manufacturing scrap ratio of ABS in China is calculated using the

overall scrap ratio of the four above plastics due to a lack of comparable data.

The detailed data are presented in table S4.

Table S4 Detailed data and source of the manufacturing scrap ratio

TypeReference

PE 6.52% 41

PP 6.95% 41

PVC 5.81% 41

PS 6.40% 41

ABS 6.49% 41

The waste plastic flowing into the recycling system includes three

sources: plastic recycling from post-consumer plastic waste, plastic recycling

from pre-consumer plastic waste and plastic recycling from plastic waste

imports. The detailed data and source are shown in Table S5.

The total recycling amount from post-consumer plastic waste is

calculated based on the apparent plastic use in the use stage and the

recycling ratio. Then the recycling amount from post-consumer plastic waste

in B&C, automobiles, electronics, and agriculture sectors could be calculated

8

by the recycling ratios and post-consumer plastic waste generated from

corresponding sectors. The recycling amount of post-consumer plastic waste

generated from the packaging sector and the other sector is calculated by

subtracting the recycling amount of the above four sectors from the total

recycling amount.

Pre-consumer plastic waste is generated from the manufacturing stage.

Because these wastes are produced centrally on the factory assembly line,

they are usually used as raw materials on the spot or collected into the

recycling system. So we assumed that all pre-consumer plastic waste would

flow into the recycling system.

China’s plastic waste imports are mainly utilized for recycling to substitute

virgin plastic resin as secondary plastic resources42, 43. So we assumed that all

plastic waste imports would flow into the recycling system.

Table S5 Detailed data and source of the recycling ratios

Type ReferencesRecycling ratios to the apparent plastic use in the use stage 12.63%-23.17% 1

Recycling ratio to the post-consumer plastic

waste

B&CSTP&C 75.00% 44

Other products 0.00% Expert estimation

Automobiles 27.69% 45,46

Electronics 92.30% 47

AgricultureFilm 15.00% 48

STP&C 100.00% Expert estimation

Recycling ratio to the pre-consumer plastic waste 100% Expert estimation

Recycling ratio to the import plastic waste 100% 42,43

When the plastic wastes flow into the recycling system, not all of them

can be converted into secondary resources because of losses in the recycling

9

process led by management capacity, technology level, and transportation.

The values and source of the recycling conversion ratio, which is the

proportion of total recycling amount converted to secondary material, are

shown in Table S6.

Table S6 Detailed data and source of the recycling conversion ratio

TypeReference

PE 76.19% 41

PP 40.34% 41

PVC 79.31% 41

PS 77.72% 41

ABS 68.38% 41

Due to the lack of relevant statistics and researches in China, we adopted

the recycling conversion ratio in the study from study on European system41.

We have also verified this assumption and data with experts from the China

Plastics Processing Industry Association and Plastics Recycling Branch of the

China Synthetic Resin Association - the technology levels of recycling are

similar in China and the European Union. We have also added a sensitivity

analysis to test the robustness of our final results in the cases of ±10%

change in conversion rates of recycling (please see Figure R1 and Figure 6 in

the manuscript). Our results show that the impact of this assumption is minor -

the largest impacts occurred in the amount of second material (~12%) but

only ~5% changes for other results, which is presented in Figure 6.

The losses in the recycling stage and the post-consumer plastic waste

10

cannot be recycled will be disposed of by incineration, landfilling, or just

exposed to the environment without any treatment. The values and sources of

the ratios of incineration, landfill, and untreatment are presented in Table S7.

Table S7 Detailed data and source of the end-of-life treatment ratios

Type References

Use sector

Packaging 2.49%-39.33% 43.11%-61.55% 2.26%-49.22% 15

B&C - 100% - Expert estimation

Automobiles - 100% - Expert estimation

Electronics - 100% - Expert estimation

Agriculture - 100% - Expert estimation

Others 2.49%-39.33% 43.11%-61.55% 2.26%-49.22% 15

Recycling systerm 2.49%-39.33% 43.11%-61.55% 2.26%-49.22% 15

There are also some assumptions used to bullid the dynamic MFA model

of China’s plastic. Detailed assumptions and sources are presented in Table

S8.

Table S8 Assumptions and sources of the dynamic MFA model of China’s plastics

Assumptions ReferencePlastic losses during use due to degradation, abrasion or other dissipative phenomena are assumed to be negligible.

49,50

Only the residence time in the use stage is considered, and the plastic flow within and between other stages is assumed to be instantaneous.

51

The data availability of all kind of ratios used by this study could not cover all the years from 1978 to 2017, so these ratios are assumed to maintain the same in adjacent years.

52

The lifetime of various products containing plastic material is mainly dependent on the sectors where the products are applied.

52

The lifespans of plastic products are assumed to be the same from 1978 to 2017. 52

Imported plastic wastes are fully used for recycling. 52

The shares of landfilling and incineration of municipal solid waste in China are the same as plastic waste generated from the sector of packaging and others.

52,49

S2. Lifetime Distribution Model

11

Dynamic-MFA models of in-use material stocks apply different functional

forms for the lifetime distributions of products. The model of lifetime

distributions usually used fixed lifetimes53, normal distributions (symmetrical)49,

Weibull distributions (right-skewed)51 or Gompertz distributions (left-skewed)54.

Krausmann, et al. 56 distinguished 11 types of in-use stock and found that each

of these stock types comprises stocks with different lifetime characteristics.

Because of this heterogeneity within stock types, in absence of detailed

information on lifetime distribution and which side of ‘skewness’ best fits the

global reality, we consider symmetrical distribution as the best compromise,

which is also in line with the Central Limit Theorem.

where refers to the probability that products in sector i will be

scrapped in time after years later. is the location parameter of sector i,

which is equal to the mean lifetime; is the shape parameter of sector i. The

lifetime parameter is the most important but most poorly understood factor57.

These parameters refer to the values of other literature as shown in Table S9.

Table S9 Parameters of lifetime distribution of plastics products in different sectors

Sector Mean Lifetime Reference Shape parameter Reference

12

Packaging 1 58 1

Building & Construction

40 52 15 49

Automobile 15 59 7 49

Electronics 10 60 4 49

Agriculture 2 60 2 55

Others 6 55 2 55

The demolition of the in-use stock in each sector is estimated by

respective lifetime distribution functions. The calculations results show that

the plastic flow into use would survive after a certain time61. In another word,

the survival function is the integral form of the lifetime distribution function.

The life distribution results are shown in Figure S2.

Figure S2. Survival ratios for different sectors.

S3. Supplement Results

Table S10 Plastic use by sector (Mt/a)

13

Year Packaging B&C Automobile Electronics Agriculture Others1978 0.52 0.23 0.01 0.07 0.16 0.091980 0.77 0.33 0.01 0.12 0.23 0.141985 0.95 0.31 0.03 0.33 0.27 0.211990 1.00 0.38 0.03 0.31 0.30 0.291995 3.54 1.69 0.10 1.27 0.83 0.792000 7.92 3.59 0.19 2.39 1.13 1.492005 12.70 6.11 0.41 3.19 1.84 2.512010 20.02 10.32 1.45 4.66 3.35 5.672015 25.38 15.67 2.00 6.52 5.46 7.362017 26.19 14.92 2.25 6.73 5.28 7.95

Table S11 Plastic stocks by sector (Mt)


Table S12 Wastes by sector (Mt/a)


Table S13 End-of-life treatment (Mt/a)

14

Year Secondary material Incineration Landfill Untreatment1978 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.011980 0.21 0.02 0.43 0.351985 0.32 0.03 0.67 0.531990 0.42 0.03 0.87 0.681995 1.20 0.09 2.18 1.852000 3.25 0.22 4.63 4.322005 6.91 0.73 7.65 6.922010 11.57 3.22 15.53 4.852015 15.72 10.41 22.67 1.902017 13.20 14.53 24.20 0.84

Table S14 Detailed data of Figure 2 (Mt)

Stage PE PP PVC PS ABS Total

Production

Domestic primary plastic production 169.90 181.25 198.80 44.17 30.79 624.90Primary plastic import 143.61 70.99 35.25 31.71 40.42 321.98Primary plastic export 2.54 1.79 9.49 4.65 0.78 19.25Secondary material 82.28 30.45 41.72 16.46 21.18 192.10

Manufacturing

Film

Production 225.16 53.19 39.83 318.18Import 4.18 0.50 0.32 5.01Export 24.08 1.53 0.94 26.54Scrap 14.68 3.70 2.31 20.69

Woven goods

Production 27.47 114.10 141.57Import 0.00 0.00 0.00Export 1.72 7.78 9.50Scrap 1.79 7.93 9.72

STP&C

Production 78.28 74.21 123.77 28.33 81.02 385.61Import 3.55 3.95 8.03 0.99 2.07 18.59Export 9.54 8.66 33.66 2.50 4.99 59.35Scrap 5.10 5.16 7.19 1.81 5.26 24.52

Synthetic leather

Production 21.09 21.09Import 1.41 1.41Export 0.70 0.70Scrap 1.23 1.23

Foam plastics

Production 34.59 34.59Import 0.03 0.03Export 0.21 0.21Scrap 2.21 2.21

Cables Production 8.88 18.77 27.65Import 0.00 0.00 0.00Export 3.25 5.97 9.22

15

Scrap 0.58 1.09 1.67

Others

Production 53.56 39.41 62.83 24.77 10.58 191.14Import 1.27 0.93 1.73 0.77 0.30 5.00Export 24.63 20.18 36.43 13.15 5.51 99.89Scrap 3.49 2.74 3.65 1.58 0.69 12.15

Use

Packaging

Film 143.96 28.86 22.89 195.71Woven goods 23.96 98.39 122.34

STP&C 5.91 5.91Foam plastics 14.49 14.49

Others 14.52 5.00 19.52

B&C

Film 1.72 1.10 2.82STP&C 57.96 40.01 73.43 171.40

Foam plastics 15.45 15.45

Automobiles

Film 0.05 0.05STP&C 1.76 5.50 3.20 8.29 18.75

Synthetic leather

1.43 1.43

Import 0.08 0.28 0.16 0.11 0.62Export 0.07 0.24 0.14 0.09 0.53

Electronics

Film 0.98 0.98STP&C 0.39 16.01 2.64 19.10 63.21 101.34Cables 5.05 11.71 16.76Import 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.08 0.94 1.08Export 0.18 5.91 1.06 7.46 8.14 22.74

AgricultureFilm 44.91 1.31 46.23

STP&C 7.08 2.81 11.68 21.58

Others

Film 18.58 11.58 30.16Synthetic leather

19.15 19.15

Foam plastic 2.25 2.25Others 12.19 17.42 23.56 10.80 4.69 68.66Import 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.19Export 6.44 1.80 7.14 6.94 2.99 25.32

Recycling

Post-consumer

Packaging 30.85 21.49 4.56 3.49 60.39B&C 1.67 1.02 2.06 0.00 4.75

Automobiles 0.18 0.25 0.28 0.36 1.08Electronics 1.63 4.65 5.07 8.63 23.43 43.42Agriculture 12.41 2.46 9.82 24.69

Others 0.40 3.07 5.08 0.62 0.11 9.29Pre-consumer 25.65 19.52 15.47 5.61 5.95 72.20

Import 39.50 26.84 14.27 3.59 4.24 88.44Export 0.02 0.56 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.70

16

Waste mangement

Landfill

Packaging 80.81 55.94 12.22 8.73 157.71B&C 0.64 0.34 0.82 0.56 2.35

Automobiles 0.48 0.65 0.74 0.94 2.81Electronics 0.14 0.39 0.42 0.72 1.95 3.62Agriculture 34.78 0.00 1.06 35.84

Others 1.39 8.96 14.27 1.81 0.41 26.85Recycling

losses14.61 25.10 6.37 2.53 5.93 54.54

Incineration

Packaging 27.04 17.67 4.01 2.29 51.01Others 0.71 3.76 5.42 0.77 0.22 10.88

Recycling losses

4.89 7.75 2.13 0.67 2.18 17.62

Untreatment

Packaging 38.62 28.80 6.20 5.52 79.14Automobiles 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Others 0.33 3.02 5.88 0.64 0.09 9.95Recycling

losses6.50 12.75 2.89 1.53 2.36 26.03

Secondary material Recycling 82.28 30.45 41.72 16.46 21.18 192.10

17

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