Cannabis Cultivation onFederal Lands in California
In-Progress Review
17 Feb 2004
2Cleveland
115,674 plants460,000 acres
Sequoia49,826 plants1.1M acres
Los Padres34,673 plants
2M acres
Sierra41,775 plants
1.3M acres
Stanislaus42,716 plants 898,000 acres
Six Rivers23,148 plants / 1.09 acres
Mendocino24,798 plants889,884 acres
San Bernardino44,286 plants660,000 acres
Rising Drug Threat on Federal Lands
Sharp escalation of organized drug production, trafficking, and related violence on NFS lands, especially in California– 2.7M plants seized (2000-03)
– Meth labs/dump sites increasing
– Cultivation plots larger, more sophisticated
466,000 cannabis plants eradicated in CA worth $1.9B – 75% (350k) eradicated on public lands
Sources: US Forest Service and California’s Campaign Against Marijuana Planting, Oct 2003
National Forest Service
Bur. Land Management
Individual Public Land
8 of the Top 10 National Forests for Cannabis Eradication are in California
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'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03
Seizures in CA1994-2003 (USFS)
Rise Due to Organized Cultivation
In thousands
“Significant evidence of International Drug Trafficking Organizations operating on NFS lands” -- USFS
Traffickers knowingly target Federal lands for their large remote and un-patrolled areas
Drug Threat on CA Federal LandsDrug-Related Violence Against Tourists / Park Officials Rising
1 Week in California National Forests:
Sept 13 -- Los Padres NF – Hunter shot at by growers
Sept 14 – Sierra NF– Victim shot near 4,500-plant garden
Sept 16 – Los Padres NF – FS and County Raid team fired on by growers
Sept 16 – BLM Public Lands, Shasta Co., CA – CAMP and Shasta County deputies shoot out. Two growers shot and killed.
Sept 18 – Mendocino NF – FS K9 attacked by growers. Suspects drop assault and high caliber rifles while fleeing
Sept 19 – Butte County, CA – Butte County SD deputies shoot out, 2 growers shot and killed
Sept 19 – Mendocino County, CA - 34-year-old hacked to death with machete in marijuana garden
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ONDCP Requirement
“In response to this threat, during the 2004 growing season, NDIC will conduct a limited-scope pilot project that seeks to estimate the amount of cannabis being cultivated on public lands in the state of California, with the eventual goal of producing an annual scientific estimate of total domestic cannabis cultivation and production.”
--2004 National Drug Control Strategy
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“… a limited scope pilot project…”
Define “public lands…” for survey– All Federal lands, forest lands, subset
Project will NOT touch– Indoor cultivation– Private lands– “Non-crop lands” (deserts, steep slopes, etc)– Military lands– Native American or Indian Reservations
Carefully scope project – End-product boundaries– Methodology– Investment
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Preliminary Findings
Over 22 million acres of NFS lands in California
“Catch-22 Imagery” (resolution vs cost)– Affordable sensors lack resolution– Sensors with (possibly) adequate resolution are costly
Vital data exist, but may require full-scale collection
Ground truthing could be costly and complicate study
Project requires outside technical experience and infrastructure
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Preliminary Conclusions
Design the highest value product using lowest risk/cost methods
Scope project in 2004 to fit timeline and resources– Narrowly define “Federal” lands– Expand scope in 2005
Some critical work cannot begin until resources are in place– Technical personnel– Hardware / software / infrastructure
Minimize ground truthing without undermining survey credibility
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Multiple and Parallel Sources
CAMP Data
USFS Enforcement Data
DEA DCE/SP Data
National Guard CD Data
Civilian Govt Imagery
Commercial Imagery
Dept of Interior Data
Other Data
Replicate methodology / best practices used by other agencies for crop surveying
Collect data and intelligence from a wide range of sources
Synthesize/analyze data and intel to determine crop estimate and determine overall threat to public lands
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Envisioned End ProductContent, Use, and Distribution
Intelligence report: “Cannabis on Federal Lands in California: Threats and Estimated Cultivation”
Unclassified Executive Report (10 pages)– Interagency threat assessment
– Growth/sophistication of cannabis trade on Federal lands
– Probability estimate of CA Federal lands under cannabis cultivation
Restricted Annex (5 pages)
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Plot survey areas, ground truth, produce estimate
5-Phase Methodology
1. Organize and Assess FeasibilityDefine end-productSeek agency “buy-in”Determine resource needs
2. Pre-Survey PreparationDefine scope and methodologyProduce Predictive Cueing Layer Model
3. Imagery Analysis and Ground TruthPlot targeted survey areasConduct ground truthing in survey areas
4. Data Analysis and Final ReportIncorporate LEA intelligence trend analysisExtrapolate plot surveysEstimate cultivation on all CA federal lands
5. Institutionalize for 2005 Survey
DATACollect Data
Scope Project
Create Predictive Cueing Layer
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Project Plan & Timeline
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Project ManagementAgency Support and Functions
DOIBLM, PS
Insert roles/responsibility
USFS/USDAEnforcement, RSAC,
ARS, NASSMethodology
Threat AssessmentData collection
Remote Sensing Support
NGBCD, CHL
MethodologyPredictive Cueing Model
Data collection Ground Truthing Support
DEADCE/SP
Threat AssessmentIntelligence Trends
DCE/SP DataGround Truthing Coord
Other Agencies
Technical Exchange
Role/Responsibility• Overall project mgt• Interagency coord.• Prepare data request• Analytical production• Production of report
NDIC
P/T NDIC SupportGIS IAStatistician Non-Imagery AnalysisPublication of final report
NDIC Director
NDIC Gen Counsel
Imagery / GIS IAs
Project Officer
PM
Asst Director
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Progress to Date Work is underway in all five phases Meetings with 11 agencies
– Valuable technical exchange– Strong support at staff and management levels– But need backing of agency leadership
Data collection continuing in CA NGB plotting data--Predictive Cueing model on track Draft “Data Request” (due completion 2/28) Draft plan / methodology NDIC hiring GIS Analyst Identifying core issues for resolution
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Road Ahead
Next Steps Acquire critical resources (personnel, work space) Resolve legal issues Finalize project scope, methodology, project plan Brief ONDCP on proposed project scope/end product Submit “data request”
Initial Support from USDA and DOI Offer DOI/USDA to be primary customers of end-product GIS/Imagery Analysts (2) (USDA/RSAC) Collect eradication data (with geo-coordinates) Designate POC for planning team Specific support to be requested within weeks