The Art and Science of Decision-Making
Doug FertuckMarch 4, 2010
Elements of a Decision
Doug Fertuck www.fertuck.com 248-881-3244
Elements of a Marketing Decision
Apply the lessons of the market and product analysis
Doug Fertuck www.fertuck.com 248-881-3244
Pain MobilityTime/Cost/
Insurance
Total Score
7 6 2 15
5 4 2 11
3 2 1 6
3 2 6 11
5 4 8 17
5 4 6 15
6 6 6 18
4 3 6 13
Potential serious surgical
complications
Surgery still an option
Surgery still an option
Develop ways to managethe risk of your choice
Trade-off desirability vs. probability
Understand your risk toleranceto choose under uncertainty
Use decision trees to model the process
Understand the consequences of each outcome
Assign probabilities to each outcome
Define possible outcomesfor each uncertainty
Identify key uncertainties
Address Uncertainty If Necessary
Rethink the unsure judgments
Seek information as necessaryto make informed swaps
Simplify a complex decision the even swap method
Eliminate the dominated tradeoffs
Make the Necessary Tradeoffs
Understand if there is meaningful uncertainty
Seek judgments of others selectively
Use objective measures and scales as appropriate
Imagine yourself in the future as you assess
Assess each alternative against each objective(Consequences Table)
Describe the ConsequencesKnow when to quit
Gather data as appropriate
Seek other ideas after exhausting your own
Don't prejudge; challenge constraints
Develop a range of alternatives by thinking "how” to meet the objectives
Generate Alternatives
Clarify and test your thinking
Focus on ends not means
Brainstorm all your concerns and wishes
What do you really need and want?
Define the Objectivesor Decision Criteria
Be creative, expansive, and critical
Generate alternative problem definitions
Challenge the constraints
What is the "trigger” driving the need to make a decision?
Define the Decision Problem
Mind Map of Smart Decision Making
Doug Fertuck www.fertuck.com 248-881-3244
Make a Smart Decision
Checklist for the Decision Process
Are you defining the problem too narrowly?
Have you accurately defined all the important criteria?
Have you generated a wide range of alternatives?
Are you overlooking important consequences?
Are your evaluations of alternatives consistent?
Have you identified the key uncertainties?
Can you take action to manage risks?
Checklist of Common Psychological Traps
Are you favoring your first idea (“anchoring”)?
Are you inclined to keep doing what you are doing?
Are you protecting an earlier decision (“sunk-cost”)?
Do you want to jump to something completely different (“throwing the baby out with the bathwater”)?
Are you slanting probabilities and estimates “just to be safe”?
Are you being overly influenced by rare, dramatic events?
Are you ignoring relevant information?
Are you seeing patterns in random events?
Focus of Breakout Session
Apply the lessons of the market and product analysis
Breakout Mini-Project
1. Define a decision problem2. Identify the decision criteria3. Note which are the 3 most
important criteria and why?4. Share results with a buddy5. Present to entire group (if chosen)
5 min
5 min
5 min
Tips for BreakoutProblem statement
Understand the “trigger” or driver of the decision
Question constraints or “can’t dos” Generate alternative problem definitionsBe creative and expansive
Criteria or ObjectivesWhat do you really need and want?Brainstorm all your wishes and concernsFocus in ends not meansImagine the future and test you thinking
Joan Florian, TTX Ingenuity LLCDoug Fertuck, Fertuck Enterprise Directions