This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix.
1
fx strategyfx | 16 March 2015
The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a 2-4 week outlook and may differ from our longer term views and forecasts from the Global Research function
Strong USD uptrend likely to continue
The USD gained against most major peers following another strong US employment report and initiation of bond buying by the European Central Bank (ECB). Declines in the EUR and GBP contributed the most to the USD rally, while the fall in the JPY was relatively modest.
In the week ahead, Euro area inflation and the Fed FOMC meeting are key events. Lower than estimated inflation expectations could provide impetus to further EUR downside. A more hawkish Fed would likely extend the USD rally.
EUR/USD
We remain bearish on the EUR/USD pair as strong trend and momentum indicators signal further downside ahead.
USD/JPY
We turn neutral on the USD/JPY pair (from bullish earlier) as upward momentum seems to have eased.
AUD/USD
We remain bearish on the AUD/USD pair as technical indicators signal further downside ahead.
USD/SGD
We remain bullish on the USD/SGD pair and expect it to head beyond the 1.400 mark.
GBP/USD
We turn bearish on the GBP/USD pair (from neutral earlier) after key support levels were breached, signalling more weakness.
XAU/USD
We turn neutral on the XAU/USD pair (from bearish earlier) as technical indicators are providing divergent signals.
Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) Secondary Sup Primary Sup Spot Primary Res Secondary Res
EUR/USD Bearish 1.000 1.015 1.052 1.084 1.120
USD/JPY Neutral 116.00 119.00 121.32 122.50 124.50
AUD/USD Bearish 0.720 0.745 0.765 0.800 0.820
USD/SGD Bullish 1.342 1.365 1.393 1.420 1.452
GBP/USD Bearish 1.400 1.440 1.476 1.500 1.540
XAU/USD Neutral 1080 1140 1160 1220 1250
USD/CNH* Neutral 6.222 6.260 6.275 6.300 6.315
USD/ZAR* Bullish 10.625 11.342 12.437 12.562 13.500
NZD/USD* Bearish 0.698 0.715 0.736 0.750 0.765
USD/CHF* Bullish 0.962 0.985 1.005 1.020 1.040
USD/SEK* Bullish 7.800 8.150 8.695 9.000 9.465
USD/CAD* Bullish 1.160 1.200 1.2801 1.320 1.400
*SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS - Going forward, we will maintain the EUR, JPY, AUD, SGD, GBP and XAU outlook while adding just key technical levels for the supplementary pairs
Contents
Strong USD uptrend likely to continue 1
EUR/USD 2
USD/JPY 3
AUD/USD 4
USD/SGD 5
GBP/USD 6
XAU/USD (Gold) 7
SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS 8
Interest Rate Differentials 10
FX Implied Volatility 10
Disclosure Appendix 12
Weekly performance of pairs
6 March 2015 to 13 March 2015
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
Steve Brice Chief Investment Strategist
Clive McDonnell Head, Equity Investment Strategy
Manpreet Gill Head, FICC Investment Strategy
Adi Monappa, CFA Head, Asset Allocation
Audrey Goh, CFA Investment Strategist
Victor Teo, CFA Investment Strategist
Tariq Ali, CFA Investment Strategist
Abhilash Narayan Investment Strategist
-0.75
-1.95
1.10
-1.02
0.47
-3.21
-4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00
XAU/USD
GBP/USD
USD/SGD
AUD/USD
USD/JPY
EUR/USD
%
16 March 2015 | fx strategy
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group 2
EUR/USD
We remain bearish on the EUR/USD pair as strong trend and momentum indicators signal further downside ahead.
Performance
EUR/USD ended down (-3.21%) over the previous week. Greece welcomed funding through the European Stability Mechanism during the week. Investor sentiment recovered, mirroring other improving business gauges, helped by the ECB’s QE programme.
In the US, producer prices fell last month. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell in March, although forward-looking inflation expectations rose to their highest since September.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators are, on balance, bearish.
We remain bearish on the EUR/USD pair. The break-down of the January-February symmetrical triangular pattern has resulted in an accelerated decline below the 1.120 mark. Although short positing is approaching extreme levels, demand remains weak amid poor sentiment. The next significant support levels are now near parity.
We would review our outlook if the pair moves above 1.084.
Key Signposts
Euro area – Consumer price inflation, ZEW survey expectations, employment (17 March), trade balance (18 March), labour costs (19 March), the ECB’s current account (20 March).
US – Empire manufacturing, industrial production, capacity utilisation, NAHB housing market (16 March), housing starts, building permits (17 March), FOMC rate decision, current account balance, Philadelphia Fed business outlook and leading indicators (19 March).
The EUR/USD downtrend remains intact, despite oversold indicators
Technical Analysis Chart: EUR/USD (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
1.015
1.084
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15
EUR
/US
D
EUR/USD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
Key technical indicators and forecast*
Technical Indicator Action
RSI (14) Buy
Oscillator (5,10) Neutral
MACD (12,26,9) Sell
ADX (14) Sell
Momentum (14) Sell
Key Levels Level Importance
Secondary Resistance 1.120 High
Primary Resistance 1.084 High
Spot 1.052 –
Primary Support 1.015 Low
Secondary Support 1.000 High
Forecast Consensus
Q1 2015 1.12
Q2 2015 1.09
Q3 2015 1.08
Q4 2015 1.08
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma1.1319 1.185 1.2524
16 March 2015 | fx strategy
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group 3
USD/JPY
We turn neutral on the USD/JPY pair (from bullish earlier) as upward momentum seems to have eased.
Performance
USD/JPY ended up (0.47%) over the previous week. Q4 growth was revised lower to an annualised rate of 1.5%, suggesting the economy has struggled to recover after the April sales tax hike. Inflation was flat and well below the BoJ’s target rate.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators, on balance, are bullish to neutral.
We turn neutral on the USD/JPY pair (from bullish earlier). The bullish momentum has eased despite clearing initial resistance (120.50). A temporary pullback to 119.00 and a consolidation phase cannot be ruled out at this stage. However, a clear break above 122.50 would indicate a resumption in the rally, in our opinion.
We would review our outlook if the pair moves below 119.00 or above 122.50.
Key Signposts
BoJ monetary policy statement, leading index, nationwide department store sales (17 March), trade balance, machine tool orders (18 March), all industry activity index (19 March), the BoJ meeting minutes (20 March).
USD/JPY seems to have lost momentum recently
Technical Analysis Chart: USD/JPY (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
119.00
122.50
98
102
106
110
114
118
122
126
130
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15
US
D/J
PY
USD/JPY 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
Key technical indicators and forecast*
Technical Indicator Action
RSI (14) Neutral
Oscillator (5,10) Sell
MACD (12,26,9) Buy
ADX (14) Buy
Momentum (14) Neutral
Key Levels Level Importance
Secondary Resistance 124.50 High
Primary Resistance 122.50 High
Spot 121.32 –
Primary Support 119.00 Medium
Secondary Support 116.00 High
Forecast Consensus
Q1 2015 120
Q2 2015 122
Q3 2015 124
Q4 2015 125
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma118.95 118.21 111.3
16 March 2015 | fx strategy
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group 4
AUD/USD
We remain bearish on the AUD/USD pair as technical indicators signal further downside ahead.
Performance
AUD/USD ended down (-1.02%) over the previous week. The employment report saw greater job creation than consensus expected while the official unemployment rate moved to 6.3% in February. In China, inflation rose in February, in line with expectations. However, industrial production slowed down to 6.8% in February from 7.9% in the previous month.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators, on balance, are neutral to bearish.
We remain bearish on the AUD/USD pair. The pair’s break below the late-January sideways range indicates the possibility of further weakness. We believe the longer-term downtrend unfolding since February is likely heading towards 0.72 (the 61.8% retracement of its 2000-2011 bull rally).
We would review our outlook if the pair recovers above 0.800.
Key Signposts
Australia – New motor vehicle sales (16 March), RBA March meeting minutes (17 March), the Westpac leading index (18 March.
China – no key economic releases this week.
AUD/USD seems to be resuming its downtrend following consolidation
Technical Analysis Chart: AUD/USD (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
0.745
0.800
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15
AU
D/U
SD
AUD/USD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
Key technical indicators and forecast*
Technical Indicator Action
RSI (14) Neutral
Oscillator (5,10) Neutral
MACD (12,26,9) Sell
ADX (14) Sell
Momentum (14) Sell
Key Levels Level Importance
Secondary Resistance 0.820 High
Primary Resistance 0.800 High
Spot 0.765 –
Primary Support 0.745 Medium
Secondary Support 0.720 High
Forecast Consensus
Q1 2015 0.77
Q2 2015 0.76
Q3 2015 0.75
Q4 2015 0.74
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma0.7876 0.8156 0.8669
16 March 2015 | fx strategy
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group 5
USD/SGD
We remain bullish on the USD/SGD pair and expect it to head beyond the 1.400 mark.
Performance
USD/SGD ended up (1.10%) over the previous week. Q4 unemployment rate was flat and in line with expectations.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators, on balance, are bullish.
We remain bullish on the USD/SGD pair. The rally continued to progress last week with the pair getting close to the psychological 1.400 mark. The on-going uptrend has been remained largely uninterrupted, highlighting the likelihood of further upside.
We would review our outlook if the pair falls below 1.365.
Key Signposts
No key economic releases this week.
The rally is likely to extend further
Technical Analysis Chart: USD/SGD (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
1.365
1.420
1.21
1.26
1.31
1.36
1.41
1.46
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15
US
D/S
GD
USD/SGD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
Key technical indicators and forecast*
Technical Indicator Action
RSI (14) Buy
Oscillator (5,10) Neutral
MACD (12,26,9) Buy
ADX (14) Neutral
Momentum (14) Buy
Key Levels Level Importance
Secondary Resistance 1.452 High
Primary Resistance 1.420 Medium
Spot 1.393 –
Primary Support 1.365 Medium
Secondary Support 1.342 Medium
Forecast Consensus
Q1 2015 1.36
Q2 2015 1.38
Q3 2015 1.38
Q4 2015 1.40
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma1.3542 1.3302 1.293
16 March 2015 | fx strategy
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group 6
GBP/USD
We turn bearish on the GBP/USD pair (from neutral earlier) after key support levels were breached, signalling more weakness.
Performance
GBP/USD ended down (-1.95%) over the previous week. The trade deficit narrowed in January, the lowest in 12 months. Industrial and manufacturing production witnessed a slowdown in January instead of a rebound as expected. BoE Governor Mark Carney commented that he was in no rush to raise rates.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators, on balance, are bearish.
We turn bearish on the GBP/USD pair (from neutral earlier). The pair last week broke through the previous key support of 1.500 and then the 2013 double-bottom lows of 1.480. This has now opened up the possibility the pair will test the 1.44 region near the 2010 lows.
We would review our outlook if the pair ends above 1.50.
Key Signposts
Rightmove house price index (16 March), employment change, BoE minutes and ILO unemployment rate (18 March).
GBP/USD technicals signal further weakness ahead after breach of key support levels.
Technical Analysis Chart: GBP/USD (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
1.440
1.500
1.40
1.43
1.46
1.49
1.52
1.55
1.58
1.61
1.64
1.67
1.70
1.73
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15
GB
P/U
SD
GBP/USD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
Key technical indicators and forecast*
Technical Indicator Action
RSI (14) Buy
Oscillator (5,10) Buy
MACD (12,26,9) Sell
ADX (14) Sell
Momentum (14) Sell
Key Levels Level Importance
Secondary Resistance 1.540 High
Primary Resistance 1.500 High
Spot 1.476 –
Primary Support 1.440 High
Secondary Support 1.400 High
Forecast Consensus
Q1 2015 1.51
Q2 2015 1.50
Q3 2015 1.49
Q4 2015 1.50
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma1.5196 1.5451 1.6037
16 March 2015 | fx strategy
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group 7
XAU/USD (Gold)
We turn neutral on the XAU/USD pair (from bearish earlier) as technical indicators are providing divergent signals.
Performance
XAU/USD ended down (-0.75%) over the previous week. Strong demand for the US dollar added pressure to the price of the yellow metal.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators are divergent.
We turn neutral on the XAU/USD pair (from bearish earlier). The previous low of 1,140 seen back in November appears to be a key support that could temporarily halt the decline. A technical rebound from this level is possible as last witnessed in the Nov-Jan period.
We would review our outlook if the pair moves back above 1,220 or falls below 1,140.
Key Signposts
Any messaging from the FOMC regarding outlook for interest rate hikes and Euro area CPI estimate.
Gold may find support near current levels
Technical Analysis Chart: XAU/USD (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
1,140
1,220
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15
XA
U/U
SD
XAU/USD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
Key technical indicators and forecast*
Technical Indicator Action
RSI (14) Neutral
Oscillator (5,10) Buy
MACD (12,26,9) Neutral
ADX (14) Sell
Momentum (14) Buy
Key Levels Level Importance
Secondary Resistance 1,250 High
Primary Resistance 1,220 High
Spot 1,160 –
Primary Support 1,140 Medium
Secondary Support 1,080 High
Forecast Consensus
Q1 2015 1,210
Q2 2015 1,180
Q3 2015 1,190
Q4 2015 1,215
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma1155.65 1228.53 1209.24
16 March 2015 | fx strategy
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group 8
SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS *SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS – Going forward, we will maintain the EUR, JPY, AUD, SGD, GBP and XAU outlook while adding just key technical
levels for the supplementary pairs
We remain neutral on USD/CNH
Technical Analysis: USD/CNH
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
We remain bullish on USD/ZAR
Technical Analysis: USD/ZAR
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
We remain bearish on the NZD/USD
Technical Analysis: NZD/USD
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
6.260
6.300
5.95
6.00
6.05
6.10
6.15
6.20
6.25
6.30
6.35
6.40
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15
US
D/C
NH
USD/CNH 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
11.342
12.562
9.8
10.1
10.4
10.7
11.0
11.3
11.6
11.9
12.2
12.5
12.8
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15
US
D/Z
AR
USD/ZAR 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
0.715
0.750
0.69
0.72
0.75
0.78
0.81
0.84
0.87
0.90
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15
NZ
D/U
SD
NZD/USD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma6.2537 6.2101 6.1907
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma11.6854 11.4947 11.1556
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma0.7507 0.765 0.8006
16 March 2015 | fx strategy
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group 9
We remain bullish on USD/CHF
Technical Analysis: USD/CHF
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
We remain bullish on USD/SEK
Technical Analysis: USD/SEK
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
We remain bullish on USD/CAD
Technical Analysis: USD/CAD
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
0.985
1.020
0.81
0.86
0.91
0.96
1.01
1.06
1.11
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15
US
D/C
HF
USD/CHF 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
8.150
9.000
5.8
6.3
6.8
7.3
7.8
8.3
8.8
9.3
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15
US
D/S
EK
USD/SEK 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
1.200
1.320
0.96
1.01
1.06
1.11
1.16
1.21
1.26
1.31
1.36
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15
US
D/C
AD
USD/CAD 50 dma 100 dma 200 dma
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma8.3086 7.9287 7.4441
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma1.2401 1.1921 1.1428
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma0.9461 0.9588 0.9388
16 March 2015 | fx strategy
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group 10
Interest Rate Differentials FX Implied Volatility
Measures the yield of holding the foreign currency relative to the base currency
An appropriate indicator used to gauge future expectations of price movements based on FX options market pricing
EUR/USD EUR/USD
USD/JPY USD/JPY
AUD/USD AUD/USD
USD/SGD USD/SGD
GBP/USD GBP/USD
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Jul-09 Dec-10 May-12 Oct-13 Mar-15
EU
R/U
SD
%
Difference between EUR and USD 2 yr swap EUR/USD (RHS)
3
8
13
18
23
Jan-11 Jan-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Mar-15
2W Implied Volatility
75
85
95
105
115
125
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Jul-09 Dec-10 May-12 Oct-13 Mar-15
US
D/J
PY
%
Difference between USD and JPY 2 yr swap USD/JPY (RHS)
3
8
13
18
23
Jan-11 Jan-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Mar-15
2W Implied Volatility
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jul-09 Dec-10 May-12 Oct-13 Mar-15
AU
D/U
SD
%
Difference between AUD and USD 2 yr swap AUD/USD (RHS)
3
7
11
15
19
23
Jan-11 Jan-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Mar-15
2W Implied Volatility
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Jul-09 Dec-10 May-12 Oct-13 Mar-15
US
D/S
GD
%
Difference between USD and SGD 2 yr swap USD/SGD (RHS)
2
7
12
17
Jan-11 Jan-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Mar-15
2W Implied Volatility
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
-0.2
0.3
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
Jul-09 Dec-10 May-12 Oct-13 Mar-15
GB
P/U
SD
%
Difference between GBP and USD 2 yr swap GBP/USD (RHS)
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
Jan-11 Jan-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Mar-15
2W Implied Volatility
16 March 2015 | fx strategy
This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group 11
TECHNICAL INDICATORS – EXPLANATORY APPENDIX
RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI indicators can be used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. An RSI above 70 can indicate a currency pair is overbought while an RSI below 30 can indicate the pair is oversold.
Stochastic Oscillator – The Stochastic Oscillator compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over a given time period. The security or index is generally considered oversold when the Oscillator falls to 20%, while a reading of 80% is considered overbought.
MACD (The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – This indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A bearish signal is provided when the main moving average line drops below the second moving average line, and vice versa.
ADX (Average Directional Index) – This indicator quantifies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. An index rising above zero provides a bullish signal while an index falling below zero provides a bearish signal.
Momentum Indicator – The momentum of a security is the ratio of today's price compared to the price at a given point in the past. If the security's price is higher today, the momentum indicator will be considered strong. If the security's price is lower today, the momentum Indicator will be weak.
16 March 2015 | fx strategy
12
Disclosure Appendix This document is not research material and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within the Standard Chartered Bank, particularly those of the Global Research function.
Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority.
In Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”), the attached material is circulated by Standard Chartered Bank DIFC on behalf of the product and/or Issuer. Standard Chartered Bank DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is authorised to provide financial products and services to persons who meet the qualifying criteria of a Professional Client under the DFSA rules. The protection and compensation rights that may generally be available to retail customers in the DIFC or other jurisdictions will not be afforded to Professional Clients in the DIFC.
Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “SCB”) according to local regulatory requirements. With respect to any jurisdiction in which there is a SCB entity, this document is distributed in such jurisdiction by, and is attributable to, such local SCB entity. Recipients in any jurisdiction should contact the local SCB entity in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Not all products and services are provided by all SCB entities.
This document is being distributed for general information only and it does not constitute an offer, recommendation, solicitation to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, in relation to any securities or other financial instruments. This document is for general evaluation only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, particular needs of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared for any particular person or class of persons.
Opinions, projections and estimates are solely those of SCB at the date of this document and subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. Any forecast contained herein as to likely future movements in rates or prices or likely future events or occurrences constitutes an opinion only and is not indicative of actual future movements in rates or prices or actual future events or occurrences (as the case may be).
This document has not and will not be registered as a prospectus in any jurisdiction and it is not authorised by any regulatory authority under any regulations.
SCB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding, but not limited to, the accuracy of this document or the completeness of any information contained or referred to in this document. This document is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information in it is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by us. SCB accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental or consequential loss or damage) from your use of this document, howsoever arising, and including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection, fault, mistake or inaccuracy with this document, its contents or associated services, or due to any unavailability of the document or any part thereof or any contents.
SCB, and/or a connected company, may at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities, currencies or financial instruments referred to on this document or have a material interest in any such securities or related investment, or may be the only market maker in relation to such investments, or provide, or have provided advice, investment banking or other services, to issuers of such investments. Accordingly, SCB, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this document.
This document must not be forwarded or otherwise made available to any other person without the express written consent of SCB.
Copyright: Standard Chartered Bank 2015. Copyright in all materials, text, articles and information contained herein is the property of, and may only be reproduced with permission of an authorised signatory of, Standard Chartered Bank. Copyright in materials created by third parties and the rights under copyright of such parties are hereby acknowledged. Copyright in all other materials not belonging to third parties and copyright in these materials as a compilation vests and shall remain at all times copyright of Standard Chartered Bank and should not be reproduced or used except for business purposes on behalf of Standard Chartered Bank or save with the express prior written consent of an authorised signatory of Standard Chartered Bank. All rights reserved. © Standard Chartered Bank 2015.
THIS IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AND HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCED BY A RESEARCH UNIT.