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DHP P244: Modern Terrorism & Counterterrorism
Dr. James J.F. Forest Visiting Professor
History & Ideologies of Modern Terrorism
AdminNotes• Feb.27:GraemeWoodbookdiscussion(arrangedbyDean
Stavridis)onTheWayoftheStrangers:EncounterswiththeIslamicState– GetyourfreecopyofbookinGinnLibrary– ClasswillmeetinASEANAuditorium;comepreparedtoaskquesIons
aboutWood’sanalysis
• WillMcCantsbookisnowop#onalreading• Pleasealsoreadthefollowing(seeTrunkwebsite):
– WillMcCants’arIcleontheoriginsofAbuBakral-Baghdadi– Wood’sarIcle“WhatISISReallyWants”– MehdiHasan’scrIIqueofWood’sanalysis– PeVerNesseretal“JihadiTerrorisminEurope”
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LessonsfromHistory
• Terrorismisnotarecentphenomenon.– Whyisitimportanttounderstandamuchlongerviewofterrorism
(200+years)?– Whatcanwelearnfromstudyingthishistory?
• Terrorismcomesinavarietyofshapesandsizes,contexts,actorsandimpacts.– Inyourreadingassignments,whathistoricaleventsorexamplesof
terrorismhavemadethemostimpressiononyouthusfar?Why?– InwhichcountrieshaveweseenthemostterroristacIvity?
EarlierHistoryEvolu#onofTerrorism• Zealots–Sicarri(1stCentury)Israel,murderRomansinpublic• Shia“Assassins”(11th&12thCentury)Syria,Iran,murdercrusaders• September1793:Jacobins,CommiVeeofGeneralSecurity–rootout
"enemiesoftherevoluIon”(andofenkillthemviaguilloIne);MaximilienRobespierre:"terrorisnothingotherthanjusIce,prompt,severe,inflexible.”
EarlyTerrorismintheU.S.• SonsofLibertytarandfeatherloyalists,whofledtoCanada• KluKluxKlan:Confederate“ghosts”inImidaIngSouthernblacks,Unionists,
teachers;overthrowReconstrucIon,resistCivilRightsActs;arson,beaIng,lynching,murder;massarrests1871;resurgence1920sthru1960s;1969FederalHateCrimeslaw
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MoreRecentU.S.History• From1970to2004,morethan96%ofmorethan16,000terrorist
aVacksweredirectedatnon-U.S.targets.—LaFree,Ming-Yang&Crenshaw(ReadingAssignment)
• ButtheU.S.hashaditsshareofterrorism...– Inthe1970s,therewere50to60terroristbombingsayearinthe
UnitedStates,“avolumeofterroristacIvitythatwouldraVlethecountrytoday.”(BrianJenkins,2016)
– Planeswerehijacked,1960s-70s– AbombtorethroughtheSenatesideoftheU.S.Capitolbuildingin
1983.– TerroristsaVackedtheWorldTradeCenterin1993– 168peoplewerekilledintheOklahomaCitybombing1995
• September11,2001:Wasthisisa“new”kindofterrorism?—Jenkins,Hoffman,Crenshaw
Rapaport’sHistoricalAnalysis
Waves covering roughly 130 years of terrorism history – Anarchist 1880s-1920s– Anti-Colonial/Decolonization 1920s-1960s– New Left Wave/Leftist anti-Western sentiment
1960s-1990s– Religious Inspiration 1990s-present
Themes to consider for each wave: 1. Doctrines of terror 2. Technology (especially for communication/propaganda) 3. Avenues of funding and support 4. Organizations can transcend waves (e.g. IRA, ETA, PLO)
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Anarchists“Wave”• TsarAlexanderII–freeserfs1861,overpromises,under-delivers• “Propagandaofthedeed”-usespectacularactsofviolencetopolarize
socieIesandthussetthestageforrevoluIon• Between1894and1901,fiveleaderswereassassinatedbyanarchistsin
EuropeandtheU.S.
AnI-Colonial“Wave”Majorguidingprinciples,doctrines:• BringinternaIonalaVenIontoanI-colonialgrievances• TarnishpresIgeofBriIsh,French“occupying”forces• Demoralizesecurityforces,non-indigenouspopulaIon• UndermineBriIshorFrenchresolvetoremain• AVriIonstrategy;provocaIonstrategy;etal.
Examples:• Israel,Irgun,Lehi/SternGang:July1946aVackonKingDavidHotel,
Jerusalem(Military&govt.offices,2ndfloor):91killed,45injured• Algeria,FLN:massivedeploymentofFrenchtroopshasliVleeffect;some
governmenteffortscounterproducIve(torture,execuIons,repression);militaryvictories,poliIcaldefeat
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Frantz Fanon • Wretched of the Earth (1961): Western powers have
dehumanized non-Western people by destroying their cultures and replacing them with Western values
• The masses suffer a perpetual identity crisis, forced to deny their heritage. They can follow only one course of action: guerilla warfare revolution (achieving freedom is inherently violent)
• Terrorism had a specific purpose: to terrorize Westerners and their followers into submission
• Urban terror was to create mayhem, and all terrorism was to be excessively brutal to communicate fear.
Fanon’s guerrilla model thus uses terrorism as a strategy and deviates from typical guerrillas who try to build a military force
PalesInianTerrorism
• TranscendsAnI-Colonial,Lef-WingandReligious“waves”• Mainlysecular/naIonalist(PLO,PFLP,DFLP,PHLP-GC,etc.)unIlIslamist
extremismrises1980s-90s• Hugerefugeecampspost-1948inLebanon,Jordan,Syria• AVacksbeginaferfailureofArabstatestomilitarilydefeatIsrael• Flurryofhijackings,1968thrulate1970s• MunichOlympics,1972(vicIms,targets,perpetrators,outcomes?)• PLOmovesHQtosouthernLebanon,Israelinvades,1982(Iranpost-1979
beginstoarm,fund,trainShiamili#asIJO,Hizballah)• Arafat’sUNspeech,specialobserverstatus,86relaIons(72Israel)• TerroristtrainingcampsinLibya,BekaahValley(Lebanon),etc.• CorrupIon,perceivedweaknessamongPLO,al-FatahleadstoriseofPIJ,
Hamas,al-AqsaMartyrs,otherIslamistterroristgroups
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Break
InfluenIalRevoluIonaries
MaoTse-Tung:Inferiorforcescandefeatthemorepowerful;“People’sWar”long-term,takeadvantagewhencondiIonsareright;overcomesuperiorforces
CheGuevara:Asmalldedicatedcadreof
guerillafighterscancreatethecondiIonsforpopularrevoluIon(Vanguard);noneedtowait
CarlosMarighella:Urbanviolencewill
“systemaIcallyinflictdamageontheauthoriIes…(and)thepeoplewhoexercisepower”(ruralinsurrecIonistooeasyforgovernmenttoignore);The basis of revolution is violence; Provide practical guides for terrorism
How are these ideas reflected by al Qaida, Islamist State, et al?
By 1970, most left-wing groups and ethno-nationalist groups had adopted some combination of these ideas
Focus is on systemic, fundamental change
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Lef-WingTerrorism“Wave”
• InfluencedbythewriIngsofrevoluIonariesinothercountries(globalizedideologicalresonance)– DomesIc,Marxist,somestatesupport– Armedviolenceagainstthecapitaliststate– EmphasisonprovocaIon– VanguardwilllaunchandinspireacommunistrevoluIonbyforce
• Prominentroleofacademics,intellectualelites– SenderoLuminoso:UniversityofSanCristobaldeHuamanga(Abimael
Guzman)– RedBrigades:UniversityofTrento(RenatoCurcio,MaraCagol)– RedArmyFacIon:FreeUniversityofBerlin(AndreasBaader,Ulrike
Meinhof)– 17November:AthensPolytechnic– WeatherUnderground:variousU.S.colleges&universiIes
Revolutionary Groups • Action Directe (France) • Sendero Luminoso (Peru) • 17 November (Greece) • Weather Underground (United States) • Tupamaros (Uruguay) • Japanese Red Army • Red Army Faction (Germany) • Red Brigades (Italy) • Mujahedin-e-Khalq (Iran) • Popular Revolutionary Army (Mexico) • Nepal Insurgents (Maoists) • United Freedom Front (United States) • 25 April Movement (Portugal) • Revolutionary Movement of Tupac Amaru (Peru) • Irish Nationalist Liberation Army (IRSP militants) • Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Colombia) • May 19 Communist Organization (United States) • Evan Mecham Eco-Terrorist International Conspiracy (United States) • Others . . .
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Common Themes
Common Targets • Symbolic targets • Policemen • Lawyers, Judges • University professors • Politicians • Union leaders, Industrialists • Military/security facilities
Common Tactics • Armed robberies, Bombings • Operations against the military
(snipers, planting mines, etc.) • Kidnapping (for attention and
coercive bargaining) • Selective assassination • Indiscriminate attacks in public
places
Prominentroleofacademics,intellectualelites• SenderoLuminoso:UniversityofSanCristobaldeHuamanga(AbimaelGuzman)• RedBrigades:UniversityofTrento(RenatoCurcio,MaraCagol)• RedArmyFacIon:FreeUniversityofBerlin(AndreasBaader,UlrikeMeinhof)• 17November:AthensPolytechnic• WeatherUnderground:variousU.S.colleges&universiIes
ReasonsforLWGroups’Decline
• IntellectualeliteswhocontrolledthemovementgotolderandlosttheirabilitytoconnectwithincreasinglyyoungerstudentacIvistaudiences.
• ImpaIentleaders,membersledtomistakes,counterproducIveviolence
• AlienaIonoftargetaudiences(insteadofmobilizaIon)underminedpoliIcalobjecIves
• Lef-wingmovementsbecamemorespecific,focusingnotonlyoncertainpoliIcalbehavior,butonparIcularcauses(e.g.,ELF,ALF,MonkeyWrenchGang–spikingtrees,arsona[acks,lumbermills,etc.)
• GovernmentacIonsandimprovedpolicetacIcscertainlycontributedtothedeclineoflef-wingterrorismintheU.S.andEurope
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Religious“Wave”• Ideologiesaresupremacist(believersassumesuperiorityovernon-
believers)&absoluIst(youarewithusoryouareanunbelieveroranenemy“aninfidel,anapostate”)
• “Godisonourside–weareacIngonthedesiresofadiety”(audienceisthusnotnecessarilyhuman;“weareunconstrainedbyman’slaws”);rewardsintheaferlife
• ComparisonswithLef-Wingwaveofterrorism?– Whoisinspiringwhom,andtowardwhatgoals?– Whoarethemostprominentideologicalinnovators?Whatare
theircredenIals/sourcesofinfluence?– What,ifanything,doesthedeclineoflef-wingterrorismsuggest
aboutthefutureofreligiousterrorism?
• Lotsofexamplesworldwide(Lesson5,Feb.22:IntersecIonsofReligionandPoliIcalViolence)
ChangesintechnologiesWhattechnologicalorotherinnova#onshaveweseenamongterroristsoverthelast100years?
• CommunicaIons:telegraph,newspapers,globaltelevision,cellphones,DVDsandtheInternet(blogs,videos,TwiVer,etc.)
• Weapons:IncreasingsophisIcaIonofIEDs,withdigitalImers,radarguns;suicideaVacks“ulImatesmartbomb”;WeaponsofMassDisrupIon/DestrucIon;cyber(?)
• TransportaIon:Railroads,Airplanes(alsoforhijackings);globalshippingservices(FedEx,UPS)
What do these changes and evolving trends suggest for the future? What new kinds of technologies might become central to the world of terrorism in the future?
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ChangesinFinancingTerrorism
• Bankrobberies• ExtorIon• Kidnappingforransom• Statesponsorship(who,when,why?)• ChariIes• Diaspora• Traffickinginweapons,drugs,counterfeitgoods• Internetfundraising,creditcardfraud,IDthef
What do these changes and evolving trends suggest for the future of terrorist financing? What new financing opportunities might we see in 10-20 years?
Re-Cap• MostterroristorganizaIonsfail,andfailratherquickly
(AccordingtoRapoport,90%failwithin1-2years)
• StudyingthedynamicsandhistoriesofterroristorganizaIonscanyieldinsightsonwhysomehavemulI-generaIonaltrajectories
• SometerroristorganizaIonshavelearnedtoadaptandsurvive
• Eachterroristgroup’shistoricaltrajectoryisunique,buttherearelessonsthatcaninformcounterterrorismefforts
• Thereismuchwecanlearnabouttoday’sterrorism(andthefuture)fromstudyingitshistoricalevoluIon–parIcularlythecontextsandideologicalinnovaIonsthatfueledthatevoluIon
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Discussion• How/whyhaveweseenan“internaIonalizaIonofterrorism?”
• Howdothe“tradiIonal”terroristmovementsofthepastcomparetomodern-dayreligiousterroristmovements?
• WhatdoterroristgroupmanualstellusaboutinnovaIonsandevoluIonintacIcs,strategy,etc.?
– HandbookforVolunteersoftheIrishRepublicanArmy:NotesonGuerillaWarfare(1956).
– Ernesto“Che”Guevara,“Chapter1:GeneralPrinciplesofGuerillaWarfare,”inGuerillaWarfare(1961).
– CarlosMarighella,Mini-ManualoftheUrbanGuerrilla(1969).– RedArmyFacIon,TheUrbanGuerillaConcept(1971).
Discussion• WhatimpactdidwarsinSoutheastAsia(e.g.,Korea,Vietnam)haveon
terrorism,andwhere?
• WhatimpactdidtheformaIonofthestateofIsraelhaveonterrorism?
• Whatdoesthisreviewofhistorynottellusaboutterrorismthatweshouldknow,inordertoimproveourcounterterrorismstrategies?
• WhydidRAFandPLOtraintogetherduringthe1970s-80s?
• WhydidQaddafiprovidetrainingcampsandpersonnelinLibya?
• HowdoesthishistoricalreviewofterrorismhelpusunderstandamodernterroristaVack,likeParislastNovember?
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ResearchPaperCaseStudiesWhathavewelearnedaboutterrorismfrom:• Ireland/N.Ireland(M.Collins/E.deValeraIRA/PIRA/CIRA/RIRA)• Israel(M.Begin,Lehi,Irgun,SternGang)
• PalesIne(Y.ArafatPLO/BlackSept.,G.HabashPFLP,S.YassinHamas)
• SouthAfrica(N.Mandela,UmkhontoweSizwe)
Whathavewelearnedaboutterrorismfrom:
• France • Germany • Italy • Spain • Russia • U.S.
• Colombia • Peru • Nigeria • Libya • Somalia • Uganda
• Afghanistan • Indonesia • Pakistan • India • China • Sri Lanka
• Egypt • Algeria • Iraq • Syria • Turkey • Lebanon
ExamQuesIonIdeasExamplesofpotenIalfinalexamquesIons:
• HistorysuggeststerroristsalmostneversucceedinachievingtheirobjecIves.Andyet,historyalsosuggeststerrorismwillbepartofourlong-termfuture.Why?
• Explainwhatwecanlearnabouttheriseanddeclineofthelef-wingwaveofterrorismthathelpsuspredictthefutureevoluIonofthecurrentreligiouswave.
• DescribesomeuniquechallengesfacedbyademocraIcgovernmentwhenrespondingtoreligiousterrorism.
• WhyhaveweseensuchadramaIcevoluIonofsuicidebombingsworldwideoverthepast35years?
• Ifcontemporaryterrorismdoescomeandgoinwaves,whatwillthenextwavebe,andwhy?