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Ian Pearson
A trip to the future
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Economic problems?
But most people are still in work and a spending
backlog is growing so recovery could be swift
1.3Tn UK debt (200k per high rate taxpayer) will
take decades to pay off.
With poor management practices and inefficientcompanies purged, and society having re-appraisedcore values, the future might be pretty good.
Background growth potential is still there with new
tech and new markets coming, and the crisis willaccelerate transition to a better economy
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Accelerating business lifehow can we recover a sensible work-life balance?
Faster andFaster
YouYour Competitors
You cant capture market share by working
harder since your competitors are too
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Population churn
Immigration
Re-migration
Emigration
Brain drain
Ageing workforce Inter-generational
conflict
Mobility and
volatility
Will this lead to retirement home UK & Ireland?
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Inter-generational conflict
Ageing population and increasing life-spanswill cause big pensions problem
Fewer young people will have to pay moretaxes
They will also see older people holding mostpolitical power
The able young might emigrate Remigration of immigrant populations as their
homelands get richer Retirement home UK could be left with the
old, the unemployed and the unskilled
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The web is now past critical mass
2000 2005 2010 2015
Web presence
Dot coms
Portals
Socialising/dating
Virtual
environments
Customer based value
Mash sites
Personal sites & blogs
Semantic web
Kick off zone
On-line games
If it wont work now, it never will!
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AI & Robotics
Human
MachineHuman
Machine
Today
Tomorrow
The information economy will
move into the machine world.
Far future
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OB1 - optical brain mk1
A conscious computer
1 trillion neurons in 100ml gel
1 billion times more powerful than brain, with up to2 million emotions & unlimited senses
Could be fully sentientCould be benign or malicious
Can be linked to other devices via the net
Optical hormone
Gel
Sensory stimulus
sensory
encoding
playback
Sensory
echoInternal sensing
neural vortex
generation
Neuralresponse
Neural interference
processing vortex
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Smart bacteriacould exist in both real world and cyberspace
Molecular circuitry
assembled by cell1 micron
Bacteria linked together via infrared, to make
sophisticated self organising circuits
Custom
DNA
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Care economy
Value of
physical/intellectual
work
Value of
community &social
wellbeing
timeMore face to face interaction, needing emotional and human skills
This may favour women and older people. Companies need to adapt
to work more closely with the community.
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Revaluation of human skills
Today, people often work as smart machines
Tomorrow, they will have to focus on
interpersonal skills
Interpersonal skills increase as people age,allowing older people to do useful work
We will see more status for women too
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Skills for the job
the feminisation of workAgricultural Age
Strength
Dexterity
Hunting
FightingNavigation
Team Working
Industrial Age
Strength
Dexterity
Engineering
FightingPolitical
Intellect
Management
Leadership
Information Age
Engineering
Global politics
Peacekeeping
Intellect
Creativity
Design
Management
Administration
LeadershipMarketing & sales
Networking
HR
Care Age
Caring
Networking
Human interfacing
Community
Empathy
Counselling
Peacekeeping
Leadership
MotivationMarketing & sales
Creativity
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Future office
AI and robotics will change the wholenature of work and society
People will focus on interpersonalservices, much of it face to face, so we
will need more meeting facilities
Other work can be done from home ortelework centres, binding localcommunities together
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Telework centre
This futuristic view is out of date already. We will actually
need more meeting places and fewer computers. Centres will
double as both work and social places.
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Any questions yet?
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Maslows hierarchy of needs:
Where the value is
Physiological
Safety/Security
Social
Esteem
Selfactualisation
Physiological
Safety/Security
Social
Esteem
Self actualisation
Fastest market growth is at the top of the
hierarchy, heading already towards care economy
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Business will change faster
You should not focus on being
best-in-class. You need agility.
Optimisation is only a good
strategy in a stable environment.
Company structures are
changing fastElite wont want to be
employees
Ageing workforce
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Increasing regulation
Increasing focuson quality of life
Technology
change
Industry
convergence
Need to control
pressures onenvironment
Increasing
socialengineering
Ongoing
globalisationMore potential
to exploit
Improving
surveillancecapability
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Winners and losers
Centralised manufacturingHigh Street shops
Knowledge based jobsBricklaying/plumbing etc
Administration
ArchitectureDriving
Machine operationCompanies
Finance
AgentsIT
Energy production
Desktop manufacturingTry-on outlets
Human skill based jobsModular prefab construction
Personal services
Virtual world designAdvice/Counselling
CaringEntertainment, sport, arts
Freelancing
Social organisationsHealth care
RegulationLaw
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More winners and losers
RealFull time work
Traditionally male jobsGlobal food production
Music industry
Content salesSpeed and agility
Middle ageOff the shelf
Unskilled work
Highly skilled work
Virtual/dualMultiple employers
Traditionally female jobsLocal food production
Direct music sales
Loss leader for experienceExperience and wisdom
Older peoplePersonalisation
Personality based work
Consultancy and guidance
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Creative remuneration
2005 2010 2015 2020
Globalisation reduces
most people to a
commodity
the elite really
understand what thehuman market wants
Machine intelligenceerodes the value of most
commodity level skills
Top 1%
Bottom 99%
Rapidly growing
design-differentiated
marketPay
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Globalisation
2005 2010 2015 2020
Care economy
Machine
intelligence
changes nature ofwork.
Brazil, Russia, India & China are rising, but the
information economy wont last for ever
2025
Increasingly fierce competition
from high education, low wageeconomies
Work dominated by
face to faceinteraction so cant
be done remotely
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Environment: Be concerned but
Dont Panic
2005 2010 2015 2020
Global average
wealth Technology (will probablysave the day, but no guarantee)
Environmental quality
Expect many new technologies to help, but human footprint
increases even faster as nations develop economically.
Increasing environmental activism will often make things
worse
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Transport sustainabilitywe need more advanced tech, not to go backwards
Technology level
Sustainability
& quality of
life
Slow, dirty,
expensive &
inefficient
Slow, dirty,
dangerous,expensiveFast, clean,
cheap
safe, efficient
0-60 in 4s,quiet, zero
emissions
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Mobility
Electronically driven cars operated as publicfleets could provide high social inclusivity andmobility while greatly reducing congestion,
accidents, and carbon emissions.
You would simply ask the computer for a carto somewhere and it would pick you up andtake you there safely and efficiently, just like a
taxi, but without the driver.
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Solar Farming
Sahara: 9M sq km Solar power = 8.5kWh/
sq m/day at 12%efficiency
Over 600TW capability Total human usage
today = 13.5TW
The Sahara alone couldsupply 40x more energythan we need for thewhole planet
Hydrogen
Electricity
Solar farms
Supercables
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Global land management
FoodEnergy
Physical
infrastructure
HousingNature
With increasingglobal wealth, we
need to makemuch more effort
to use limited
land on the basisof global needs.
i.e. use farmland
to grow food and
desert for energy
Abandon biofuels
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Technology progress gives us
more function for less resource
But it isnt over
yet!!!
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Rapid obsolescence
Device size
and power
consumption
Number of
devices
timeThe faster we go through the obsolescence cycle, the
smaller the overall environmental impact
Impact = device population x device impact
fast
slow
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Electronic jewellery
Identification,security
Social status
Digital image
augmentation
Communication,
data distribution
Sensing
Medical
monitoring,
alarms
Anyform
Networking
Decoration
Tribal signalling
Digital bubble
Mobile
website
Miniaturisation will bring everyday IT down to lapel-pin size. Combinations of
devices can monitor and relay a wide variety of data.
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Any more questions?
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Jewellery nets
Direct inter-device networking will become animportant alternative internet platform
Wireless LAN link to web
and between clusters
Wireless links
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Digital bubble
Digital bubbles will
change how people
network and socialise byenabling intelligent
exchange of appropriate
information and filtering
out junk
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34
Permanent layerMid-term layerTransfer layerDetachable layer
Wearable layer
Active skin
SkinEpidermis
Dermis
Skin-based electronics can link blood
chemistry and nerve signals toexternal computers and systems
Even thought
recognition isstarting to
appear now
Emotiv Epoc headset
for computer games
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Display evolution
Will also see lots of very large wall displays, coffee table
displays, digital windows, recipe tablets etc. All context aware.
80 inch display, 180
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Active contact lens(Pearson 1991)
laser
focusing
micromirror
retina
lasers
Gaze direction sensor
Micromirror Inductive
powersupply
Processing
Comms
& ctrl
Laser Laser
Laser
Gaze
directionsensor
Diamond
substrate Resolution limited by the eye Allows natural distance perception Tiny environmental footprint
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Virtual worldsadding value to the real world
Nervous system links will
give a full sensoryexperience
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Duality
People and buildings canemit an interactive digitalaura over wireless LANs
This gives a dualappearance Can blend games into real
world
You can choose how youappear
Everyone can see theworld differently
Fight off aliens while yourpartner chooses an outfit.
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Digital mirror, active make-up
Can show
yourself as you
want to be seen,not as you are
You can choose
how each person
sees you
Can be used with
active makeup, tochange look all
through the day
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The new high street
M&S WH Smith DixonsPhysical
NextAmazon
eBayWaterstones
Dabs
Locationbased overlay
Amazon
FroogleTesco
eBay
You?
Full web
presence
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Virtuous circle for web
development
Improvinginterfaces &
displays
Ease of use
Ubiquity
Now default
platform
Cross gadget
integration
More social
entrepreneurs
High speed
mobility &
positioning
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Socio-
politicalPower
Domains
Geographic
World Cyberspace
Local
govt
Community
Networks
Global
government
Network
Communities
Geographic
tribalism
Values
tribalism
Social world
Tribalism is built in
to human nature
and fits the web
perfectly. Expectpolitical platforms
to migrate onto the
web, where grass-
roots power can be
mobilised quickly.
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Country A
Country B
Country C
Cybercommunity X
CybercommunityY
Cybercommunity Z
Real World Cyberspace
Future power will be web based
Global pressuregroups will be able
to apply pressureinstantaneously,
using billions of
peoples economicand IT muscle.
Will it be grass
roots democracy or
mob rule?
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The Stepford Societymaking it almost impossible for generally law-
abiding people to commit an offence
Speed limits built into car management system
Anti-techbacklash
Criminals will just ignore these systems, using stolen phones, LCD plates, ID theft
Criminals will have total freedom, we will have none
Tax enforcement via integrated databases
Identity cards
Face recognition systems
DNADatabases
Road tolling via satellite tracking
Speed cameras everywhere
25% of the worlds CCTV
One stop shop for all government data
Extensive monitoring of all electronic activity
Abuse of Millimetre wave cameras
Government knows everywhere you go
Extensive & permanent police records
Monitoring of e-cash
Number-plate recognition
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Privacy
Surveillance is already very intense, especially in the UK,
but people are getting increasingly upset about the
erosion of privacy and freedom
If there is a backlash against it, you dont want your
company to be on the wrong side of the fence
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www.futurizon.com
Thank you