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Major trends – 2013 and beyondBobby DuffyMD Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute,
Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London
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Start with some predictions for 2013...
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>>
= 1/2
= 1/2
= 3/10
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= 1/5
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61% think Britain will fall back into recession
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
Extraordinary year in 2012 – but still one big issue ....all seemed to be going well for a few years....
Representative sample of c. 1000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Ipsos MORI Issues Index
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
The economy
Cameron becomes
PMBrown becomes
PM
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What would you say is the most/other important issue facing Britain today?
Exceptional crisis – but worry about the economy is the norm...
Ipsos MORI Issues Index
1974
1985
1991
1994
2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Economy
Unemployment
Inflation/prices
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Not a global crisis – and we’re in the unhappiest group
Base: 17,678 online interviews with adults aged 16/18-64 in 23 countries, September 4-18 2012. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
R² = 0.489858158846355
Net agree country will never be the same again
Net disagree country will never be the same again
Net last five years good for country
Hungary
BelgiumFrance
GB
Sweden
SpainItaly
Brazil
Net last five years bad for country
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23
43
42
45
35
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When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality of life than you, or about the same?
A new reality – where we expect our children to have a lower quality of life than us
Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011 Ipsos MORI
% Higher % Lower
November 2011
April 2003
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How do we feel about local?
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How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way your local council runs things?
Satisfaction with local govt as high as it’s been...
Ipsos MORI
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 20110%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
National net satisfaction
Year surveyed
Ne
t S
ati
sfa
cti
on
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Trust is up…
Core sample in England; (2001: 9,270, 2003: 8,859, 2005: 9,104, 2007-08: 8,729, 2008-09: 8,706, 2009-10: 8,677, 2010-11: 9,521) Ipsos MORI
2001 2003 2005 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-1110
20
30
40
50
60
70
52 5457
60 6162 64
Local Council
Per
cen
t
Trust %
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From this list, which two or three of the following do you believe have most impact on people’s everyday lives?
People recognise councils have an impact on everyday lives
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,156 British adults 18+. Fieldwork dates: 13th - 19th November 2009
Change since 2006 ±%points
n/a
+9Media
+1Local councils
+7Business
+3Civil service
n/aEuropean Union
-8Westminster Parliament
-7Prime Minister
-2Cabinet
Scottish Parliament/Welsh Assembly
(asked in Wales/ Scotland only)
Don’t know
63%
50%
44%
23%
20%
19%
17%
5%
6%
4%
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Who do you trust most to make decisions about how services are provided in your local area?
Clear preference for local decision-making
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013
79%
11%
8%
2%
Your local council
The Coalition government
Neither
Don't know
75% of Conservative voters
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Some love for local – because some loathing of national politics?
Click here to insert cover image
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...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?
Trust in politicians never been high...
Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Medical Associatypn
1983 1993 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20110
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Doctors
Teachers
Civil servants
Politicians
Journalists
Ordinary man/woman in the street
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...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?
How trusted are local government professions?
Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Medical Associatypn
1983 1993 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20110
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Doctors
Teachers
Civil servants
Politicians
Journalists
Local Councillors
Managers in Local Government
Ordinary man/woman in the street
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How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of this country above the interests of their own political party?
But this is serious...
Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2009
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
10
20
30
40
%
% “almost never”
A real crisis of trust?
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And confidence in the government’s policies on public services falling…
c.1,000 British Adults Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Do you agree or disagree… “In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s public services”
Jun-01O
ct-01N
ov-01M
ar-02M
ay-02S
ep-02D
ec-02M
ar-03Jun-03Jul-03S
ep-03D
ec-03M
ar-04Jun-04S
ep-04N
ov-04Feb-05M
ay-05S
ep-05N
ov-05M
ar-06M
ay-06S
ep-06N
ov-06M
ar-07M
ay-07S
ep-07N
ov-07M
ar-08S
ep-08Jun-09N
ov-09Jul-10O
ct-10Jan-11Jun-12
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20 22
36
-18-14
-34
-27
-13
-19
-2
-21
-28 -28
-13
-22-20-22-28
-29
-17
0
-10
-27-32
% net agree
2005 General Election (May 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
2001 General Election (Jun 01) 2010 General Election; Cameron as PM
(May 10)
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There’s also a local/national contrast in blame for cuts
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From what you know, who do you think is most to blame for the level of cuts to public services?
Who’s getting the blame for cuts now?
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013
The previous Labour government
Banks
The state of the global economy
The Coalition government
Local Councils
31
29
18
10
5
26
23
21
21
4
January 2013March 2011
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And when you look at local services?
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013
26
23
21
21
4
The previous Labou...
Banks
The state of the glo...
The Coalition gover...
Local Councils
25
11
17
30
13
Most to blame for the level of cuts to public services?
Most to blame for the level of cuts to local council services?
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I am personally happy to accept less from my local council than I currently get in order to help pay off the national debt
I would be happy to pay more council tax if it helped my local council maintain current levels of service
57
64
40
34
Disagree
To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements
Are people expecting more for less? Or willing to pay more for the same?
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013
30% strongly 12% strongly
36% strongly 9% strongly
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To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements
Majority haven’t noticed changes to service – BUT...
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013
I haven’t really noticed any changes to the services provided by my local council
The cuts in local council services have gone too far and will lead to social unrest
34
47
65
48
Disagree AgreeNorth a bit more likely to have noticed
– but largest differences by class and party support
Agree = 29% Conservatives, 60% Labour
Around one in four people agree with both statements....
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42
28
56
How concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of cuts [to local council services] on you and your family in the next 12 months?
There is worry about the future...
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013
21
34
32
121
Very concerned
Fairly concerned
Not very concerned
Not at all concerned
Don't know
Local council services Cuts generally
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% very or fairly concerned about the effect of the cuts on them and their families
Varies as you’d expect…
Base: All members of the public interviewed online in GB (1,009); fieldwork, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI
AllAB C1 C2 D E
Up to
£19
k
£20k
- £3
5k
£35k
- £5
5k
£55k
+
1-2
ser
vices
3 se
rvice
s
4+ s
ervic
es
6155 58
6269
7772
6054 52 54
61
72
Social grade Income Public service use
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Two other key trends…
Click here to insert cover image
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Our generational balance is changing fundamentally – four roughly equal-sized and very different generations...
Source: Eurostat
Proportion of UK adult (18+) population from each generational grouping
83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% pre war generation
% Generation Y
% Generation X
% Baby boomers
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Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?
Support for political parties is declining – maybe not by as much as expect?...
Source: British Social Attitudes
83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?
...driven by rock solid generational pattern
83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pre war Baby boomers Generation x Generation y
% ‘
yes’
Each sample point represents >100 respondents BSA. Population data from Eurostat
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“the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes”
Declining support for more welfare spending...
Each sample point represents >100 respondents BSA. Population data from Eurostat
1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
55%
28%22%
39%
Agree total
Disagree total
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“the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes”
Generations are very different...
Each sample point represents >100 respondents BSA. Population data from Eurostat
1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)
@BobbyIpsosMORI
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Lot of focus on “Nudging” behaviour change, using it in demand management, pensions, on organ donation and in letters from tax collectors…..
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“If a man sees a fly, he aims at it”
“Schhpillage was down by 80%...”
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Explosion of behavioural data ...mobile in particular
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90% smartphone ownership in 2-3 years...
Base: circa 1,000 GB adults aged 15+ per wave Source: Ipsos MORI
Any Smartphone (net)
Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul' 11 Nov' 11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12 Nov '120%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
20
50
12
23
913
9
17
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Location & URL Behavioural Data
By Location we can identify, volume, demographics, web use and web based App use
Identify the demographics by
location
Identify the volume of people by location,
where they have come from, where they go to
Web & web based app: before, during & after
they’ve been at location
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Paste co-brand logo
hereEverything Everywhere’s Customer Database
D.O.B, Postcode & gender
28 million
UK SIMS = 15 million
consumers
Demographically Profiled Phone Usage
Geo Location
Mobile WebDomainDuration on siteSession lengthPrevious/next sites visitedAmount of data uploaded/downloaded
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Location & URL Behavioural Data
Saturday 30/06: 124,000 People at Oxford Circus search on the mobile web
364 went on to Pornhub
4,509 went on to BBC
3,048 went on to Ebay 1,264 went
on to TFL
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A day in the life of XX borough...
•Where people go at different points of day•Who goes where? Profile by individual/geo-demographics
•Who never leaves?•What media do they look at, generally and about local issues?
•Can you trigger interaction when residents go to particular places/do particular things?
•Can this be linked to other data?
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In conclusion...
• There is definitely a crisis of trust in political institutions…
• …not really affecting local government – yet• Most haven’t noticed cuts yet – a real credit to public services and councils
• But fearful about the future for services, and for themselves• Criticism of local government not working for central government – but opinions likely to shift more as people notice change
• Need to understand your whole population, generational differences increasingly important...
• Huge opportunities from technology to understand behaviours and interact more
• Good luck...