‘Meat’ing Future Food Demands
Emily Cassidy
Thomas Malthus1766 – 1834
Population Growth is exponential...
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Bill
ions
160,000B.C.
100,000B.C.
10,000B.C.
7,000B.C.
6,000B.C.
5,000B.C.
4,000B.C.
3,000B.C.
2,000B.C.
1,000B.C.
1A.D.
1,000A.D.
2,000A.D.
8
9
7
2,150A.D.
2011 – 7 Billion2011 – 7 Billion
1945 – 2.3 Billion1945 – 2.3 Billion
2050 – 9.1 Billion2050 – 9.1 Billion
1492 – 500 Million1492 – 500 MillionFirst Modern Humans
First Modern Humans
1776 – 1 Billion1776 – 1 Billion
Source: TCP
Crop production can’t keep Crop production can’t keep up...up...
Yie
ld (
tons
/ hect
are
)
Malthusian
catastrophe
Global population growth is Global population growth is slowing...slowing...
Malthus underestimated...
Norman Borlaug
Dramatically increased wheat yields
Was Malthus wrong?
Image: NASA
Growing Demandsfor Food
Growing Demandsfor Food
x2
7 2
4
Image: NASA
Diets MatterDiets Matter
113030
10%10%
million calories per hectareMillion calories per hectare
0 4 821 3 5 76
1 ton maize 1 ton maize
food
feed
biofuels
Calories Calories delivered to delivered to
peoplepeople
Calories available in food systemCalories available in food system
Calories “lost”Calories “lost”
Fraction of crop calories that become foodFraction of crop calories that become food
0 0.5 1
36% of calories used for animal feed36% of calories used for animal feed
Fraction of crop calories that become foodFraction of crop calories that become food
0 0.5 1
59% of produced calories become food
59% of produced calories become food
50% of produced protein become food
50% of produced protein become food
33%
of calories go to feed
ChinaChina
62%
of calories are delivered
ChinaChina
67%
of calories go to feed
United StatesUnited States
34%
of calories are delivered
United StatesUnited States
5.98.4
5.4 66.5
13.5
16
10
People fed per hectarePeople fed per hectareassuming 2,700 kcal per dayassuming 2,700 kcal per day
People fed per hectarePeople fed per hectareassuming 2,700 kcal per dayassuming 2,700 kcal per day
Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2009
Pou
nd
s p
er
cap
ita
Source: FAO
~10 people per hectare~10 people per hectare
Possible people fed per hectarePossible people fed per hectare
0 2 4 6 8 10
~10 billion people~10 billion people
Actual Food SupplyActual Food Supply
~6 people per hectare~6 people per hectare~6 billion people~6 billion people
Actual people fed per hectareActual people fed per hectare
0 2 4 6 8 10
Where do we go from here?
1992 2008image:s: NASA
Ray et al., 2012
MAIZE - yield trends
Yields increasing
Stagnating
Ray et al., 2012
RICE - yield trends
Yields increasing
Stagnating
1 billion 2 billion
Thomas Malthus
What can YOU do about
this?
Increase Calories Available Increase Calories Available by 70 %by 70 %
Million calories per hectare
0 1 2 3 4+
Billion people4+
300 million people
Image: NASA
Diets MatterDiets Matter
Image: NASA
Thanks!Thanks!