Economic Growth, Development, and Democracy: A Review and
Further Analysis2012-09358, 2011-40531, 2012-10478I. IntroductionA.
Background of the ProbleA notableregular!t"!n#ol!t!cal
econo"toda"!$therelat!on$h!#bet%eenecono!cgro%th and deocrac". All
&'() or the !ndu$tr!al!*ed countr!e$ are deocrat!c and o$t
non-deocrac!e$ are #oor +Aceoglu et al 2008,. B. Pur#o$e and
-!gn!f!cance of the -tud".!th global!*at!on ha##en!ng at a #ace
fa$ter than %e can !ag!ne, d!fferent a$#ect$ of d!fferent countr!e$
are ada#ted b" other$ %h!ch cont!nuall" br!ng border$ clo$er
together. A#art fro culture$, fa$h!on, and l!fe$t"le$, #ol!t!c$ and
econo!c$ are t%o other factor$ %h!ch f!nd the$el/e$ at the edge of
the border$. 0h!$ $tud" a!$ to f!nd the l!nk bet%een deocrac", of
%h!ch 122 countr!e$ are, and gro%th and de/elo#ent, !nd!cator$ of
ho% %ell-off a countr" !$. -#ec!f!call", the author$ of th!$ #a#er
h"#othe$!*e that econo!c gro%th !nduce$ deocrac". (urrentl", o$t
de/elo#ed countr!e$ are deocrat!c, %h!le o$t le$$-de/elo#ed
countr!e$ are not deocrat!c. 0h!$ could be becau$e of a lack of
#rotect!on !n #ro#ert" r!ght$ !n non-deocrat!c countr!e$, %h!ch
#re/ent$ the arket fro #erfor!ng o#t!all" and reduce$
!n/e$torconf!dence. A rea$on %h" deocrat!c countr!e$ a" #erfor
better !$ that the better the!r c!t!*en$1 %elfare !$ taken care of,
the h!gher the!r #ol!t!cal eff!cac" !$ and are ore %!ll!ng to
#art!c!#ate !n #ol!t!cal #roce$$e$. 0h!$ and other rea$on$ %!ll be
tackled !n the $ucceed!ng #art$ ofth!$ #a#er.A 2uant!tat!/e
anal"$!$ %a$ u$ed for th!$ #a#er, u$!ng cro$$-$ect!onal and #anel
data regre$$!on. 0he author$ u$ed !nd!cator$ and data for econo!c
gro%th and de/elo#ent $#ann!ng39 "ear$ acro$$ 189 countr!e$ !n the
5 geogra#h!c d!/!$!on$ accord!ng to the 3n!ted 4at!on$. 5!nd!ng$
!nclude a #o$!t!/e relat!on$h!# bet%een econo!c gro%th and deocrac"
for all countr!e$, ho%e/er not all %ere $tat!$t!call"-$!gn!f!cant.
A$!a and Afr!ca, for e6a#le, d!d not ha/e $tat!$t!call"-$!gn!f!cant
re$ult$, #o$$!bl" becau$e the h!ghl"-de/elo#ed countr!e$ !n the
reg!on are not deocrat!c. 0he Aer!ca$ and 'uro#e $ho%$ $tat!$t!cal
$!gn!f!cance, #o$$!bl" becau$e the$e reg!on$ %a$ %here deocrac"
or!g!nated and %ere #ro#erl" !#leented.II. Literature
Review0hed!$cu$$!onontherelat!on$h!#bet%eenecono!cgro%thandde/elo#ent
!$notne%. 0here !$ a #lethora of e$$a"$ and re$earche$ that g!/e
the!r o%n !n$!ght$ to the debate. 0herearetho$e%hocla!that
thet%oha/ea#o$!t!/erelat!on$h!#, that e!ther econo!cgro%th!nduce$
deocrac" or deocrac" !nduce$ econo!c gro%th. 0hen, there are tho$e
%ho cla! thatthe t%o are negat!/el" related, that deocrac" actuall"
h!nder$ econo!c gro%th. And then,
therearetho$e%ho$a"thatthet%odon7treall"ha/ead!rectrelat!on$h!#.
8ere, are/!e%ofthed!fferent $!de$ to th!$ r!ch debate !$
#re$ented.)eocrac" 9nduce$ 'cono!c :ro%th;uch of the l!terature for
th!$ $!de of the debate focu$e$ on the fact that a
deocrat!cen/!ronent %ouldbeore conduc!/e for econo!cgro%th,
%!th#art!cular focu$ onthe#rotect!on of #ro#ert" r!ght$. 4orth
+1990, argue$ that c!t!*en$ %!ll be ore ot!/ated to
!n/e$t,#rof!t-a6!!*!ng #r!/ate act!/!t" can be a!nta!ned, and an
effect!/e allocat!on of re$ource$ !nthe arket can be en$ured !n a
cl!ate of l!bert", free-flo%!ng !nforat!on, and $ecured controlof
#ro#ert" %h!ch are d!$t!nct character!$t!c$ of deocrat!c $tate$.
)eocrac!e$ al$o l!!t $tate!nter/ent!on !n the econo" and are ore
re$#on$!/e to the deand$ of the #ubl!c !n area$ $ucha$health,and
educat!on,andhence encourage$ $tablelong runecono!cgro%th +Bau
and> to 1984, but th!$ !$ not due to the fact that
9nd!a!$adeocrac",rather!t
%a$onl"a##ear!ngtobedeocrac".9nd!ra:hand!7$terhadthee$$ent!al
feature$ of a deocrac", but !t becae unaccountable and corru#t.
+8uang 2009,8uangconcludedthat #ol!t!cal
l!beral!*at!on$#urredgro%th!nboth9nd!aand(h!na, thu$#ol!t!cal
refor$, e$#ec!all"tho$ethat are!nl!ne%!thdeocrac", canaffect
theecono"#o$!t!/el".'cono!c :ro%th 9nduce$ )eocrac"0 to 1990
+1994,. Accord!ng to h!, !#ro/eent$ !n the $tandard of l!/!ng
-ea$ured b" :)P, health $tatu$, and educat!on - $ub$tant!all" ra!$e
the #robab!l!t" that #ol!t!calfreedo$ %!ll gro%. 9n contra$t,
countr!e$ that deocrat!*e %!thout #r!or econo!c
de/elo#ent%ouldtendnot tola$t. 0he#ro#en$!t"for deocrac"r!$e$
%!th#er ca#!ta:)P,#r!ar"$chool!ng,
anda$allerga#bet%eenaleandfeale#r!ar"atta!nent +Barro1999,.A$!!lar
re$earch %a$ conducted b" Burkhart and ,. 9t %a$ thenaugented to be
clo$er to that of Barro7$ +1999,, to !nclude ore /ar!able$ - h!$
Ddeter!nant$ ofdeocrac"E. 0o $uar!*e, the theoret!cal odel
d!$cu$$ed !n Fob!n$on +200>, look$ at !ncoered!$tr!but!on fro
the econo!c and #ol!t!cal el!te$ to the c!t!*en$. 0he el!te$ are !n
currentl"#o%er but the" can be o/erthro%n b" the c!t!*en$ through
r!ot$, deon$trat!on$, and the l!ke.0herefore, to a/o!d $uch, the"
%ould need to red!$tr!bute re$ource$. 0he o#t!al cho!ce %ould beto
allo% the c!t!*en$ to choo$e the le/el of red!$tr!but!on that the"
%ould o$t #refer and henceto deocrat!*e. 0he odel $ugge$t$ that a$
re$ource$ !ncrea$e becau$e of econo!c gro%th, andhence ore !ncoe to
be red!$tr!buted to the c!t!*en$, the #robab!l!t"of
deocrat!*at!on!ncrea$e$.0he general $tat!$t!cal odel d!$cu$$ed b"
Fob!n$on +200>, !$ a$ follo%$?di=0+1 yi+2zi+u.here di!$ the
ea$ure of deocrac" !n a countr" for $oe t!e #er!od i, yi!$ the#er
ca#!tale/el of!ncoe!nthecountr"for$oe#er!odi,zirefer$toanother
/ar!ablee6#la!n!ng ho% deocrat!c a countr" !$, andu !$ the error
ter. 9n Aceoglu and Fob!n$on+200>,, the de#endent /ar!able !$
deocrac"A and the !nde#endent /ar!able$ are lagged /alue$
+b"1"ear,ofdeocrac",logof:)P,logof#o#ulat!on,
educat!onandage$tructure. 9nBarro+1999,, the de#endent /ar!able !$
al$o deocrac"A and the !nde#endent /ar!able$ are a$
follo%$?5-"earand10-"earlagged/alueofdeocrac",logof:)P,"ear$of#r!ar"$chool!ng,
ga#bet%een ale and feale #r!ar" $chool!ng, urban!*at!on rate, log
of #o#ulat!on, and a du"for an o!l e6#ort!ng countr". 0h!$ #a#er
u$e$ the follo%!ng $tat!$t!cal odel?di=0+1di5+2di5+3log
yi+4ei+5hi+6log pi+u.here di !$ the ea$ure of deocrac" !n a countr"
for $oe t!e #er!od i, di5anddi10are the lagged /ar!able$ of
deocrac" +5 "ear$ and 10 "ear$ re$#ect!/el",,yi!$ the!ncoe #er
ca#!ta !n the countr", eirefer$ to /ar!able$ de$cr!b!ng the
educat!on !n the count" ,hirefer$ to /ar!able$ de$cr!b!ng the
health cond!t!on !n the countr", pi !$ the #o#ulat!on ofthe
countr", andu !$ the error ter. 0he /ar!able$ for both !ncoe and
#o#ulat!on %ere loggedto account for gro%th effect$.0heba$!$ for
thecho!ceof /ar!able$ area$ follo%$? 1,
therehadtobea/ar!ablede$cr!b!ng deocrac" and econo!c
gro%thH#erforanceA 2, there al$o had to /ar!able$de$cr!b!ng econo!c
de/elo#ent %h!ch Bu$t!f!e$ the !nclu$!on of educat!on and
health-related!nd!cator$ a$ the"%eretakenfrothecoonl"u$ed8)9
ea$ureA 3, a$ !nFob!n$on7$d!$cu$$!on +200>,, there %a$ $oe
!nclu$!on of other factor$ relat!ng to deocrac". 0he /ar!ablefor
deocrac" %a$ lagged, 5 "ear$ and 10 "ear$,%!th the a$$u#t!on that
D#a$t deocrac"E%ould affect ho% deocrat!c a countr" currentl" !$.
0he /ar!able$ cho$en %ere al$o !nfluencedb" data a/a!lab!l!t" of
$a!d /ar!able. 0h!$ odel !$ a $!#le &rd!nar"2 ob$er/at!on$.-
Po#ulat!on +pi,? 0h!$ refer$ to all !nhab!tant$ of a #art!cular
countr". 0h!$ data %a$ obta!ned fro 34 -tat!$t!c$. 0h!$ data !$
a/a!lable for 202 countr!e$ fro 1970-2012, for a total of 7452
ob$er/at!on$.4ote? 8ere, %e u$e ob$er/at!on$ to ean countr!e$
ult!#l!ed b" nuber of /ar!able$ acro$$ t!e+!.e. )ata for 4
countr!e$ for 1 /ar!able fro 1991-1995, and $o 20 ob$er/at!on$,.A$
%!th the cro$$ $ect!on anal"$!$ real :)P #er ca#!ta %a$ logged to
take !nto account gro%th effect$. 0h!$ %a$ al$o the ca$e for
#o#ulat!on. A$!de fro that, the /ar!able for deocrac" %a$ lagged a$
$t!#ulated !n the odel.0o a/o!d an" ga#$ !n the data anal"$!$, the
t!e frae con$!dered for th!$ $tud" %a$
onl"fro1972-2010a$th!$!$theonl"t!e%here!nall
/ar!able$hadco#letedata.Al$o, thenuber of countr!e$ %ere reduced to
113 countr!e$ +&r!g!nall"147 to accoodate
theeducat!on/ar!able$, a$$eenabo/e,
data%a$a/a!lablefor147countr!e$. 8o%e/er,th!$%a$further reducedto
reo/ethecountr!e$ thatd!dn7tha/eco#leteother/ar!abledata
fortheent!re t!e #er!od,. 9n total, there %ere 35, 25>
ob$er/at!on$. 0hecountr!e$ %ereal$ogrou#ed#er
geogra#h!creg!on!naccordance%!ththe34$tandard. (ountr!e$ %ere
a$$!gned a nuber fro 1-5 %here 1 refer$ to countr!e$ belong!ng
tothe reg!on of Afr!ca, 2 Aer!ca$, 3 A$!a, 4 'uro#e, and 5
&cean!a. 0he author$ o#ted not tofurther $ubd!/!de the
countr!e$ !nto $aller $ubreg!on$ +e.g. Aer!ca can be further
$ubd!/!ded to4orth, (entral, and -outh Aer!ca, and the (ar!bbean,
a$ th!$ %ould g!/e the du" /ar!able a/alue rang!ng fro 1-21 and
%ould d!/!de the countr!e$ too uch, and hence le$$ ob$er/at!on$for
the anal"$!$.Add!t!onal note? 5orth!$#anel dataanal"$!$,
econo!cgro%th!$def!nedonl"a$an!ncrea$e !n :)P #er ca#!ta, %h!le
econo!c de/elo#ent !$ def!ned a$ an !ncrea$e !n :)P #erca#!ta along
%!th !#ro/eent$ !n both health and educat!on. 0he 5reedo 8ou$e
def!n!t!on ofdeocrac" !$ a##l!ed.(. Anal"$!$ of Fe$ult$1.1 (ro$$
-ect!on All (ountr!e$Belo% are the re$ult$ generated fro -tata? .
regfh_ipolity2 lgle_rgdpcSource | SS df MSNumber of obs =
189-------------+------------------------------ !1" 18#$ =
2%.&' Model |212.8'9'%% 1212.8'9'%% (rob ) =*.****+esidu,l
|1%'9.91#&- 18#8.&9%2#98# +-s.u,red
=*.119--------------+------------------------------ /d0 +-s.u,red
=*.11-# 1ot,l |1#82.#8'99 1889.-829*9%& +oot
MS2=2.89#%------------------------------------------------------------------------------
fh_ipolity2 |3oef. Std. 2rr.t()|t| 49%5 3o6f.
76ter8,l9-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------lgle_rgdpc
| .8282#*8 .1'--8#' %.*- *.*** .%* 1.1%2#' _co6s
|-.%*&8-&91.--898-*.&%
*.#28-&.&'22912.&%-'*&------------------------------------------------------------------------------9nter#ret!ng
th!$, a 1G !ncrea$e !n real :)P #er ca#!ta %ould !ncrea$e the
deocrac" $core b" 0.828. Ba$!ng fro the p /alue +0.000,, th!$
re$ult !$ $tat!$t!call" $!gn!f!cant at a 5G $!gn!f!cance le/el.
F-$2uared !$ at around 12G.Belo% !$ a $catter #lot of the abo/e
regre$$!on?5ro th!$, there !$ generall" a #o$!t!/e relat!on$h!#
bet%een econo!c gro%th and deocrac". 0he regre$$!on %a$ checked for
hetero$keda$t!c!t". Belo% !$ a #lot of the re$!dual$ and deocrac"
$core? -.%11-- + | : | : : | : : |: :: : : : | ::::: :: :::: :+|::
::::: : : :: :::::: :e| ::::: ::: ::: :s|:::: ::: :::
:i|::::d|::::::: : :u|:::,| : : ::l| ::::: : :s| : :: : :: | : : :
: |:: : | : : ::: ::: |: ::: |:-#.#'--- + :
:+----------------------------------------------------------------+*
fh_ipolity2 1*1.2 (ro$$ -ect!on Per Feg!onBelo% are the re$ult$
generated fro -tata?. regfh_ipolity2 lgle_rgdpc ifregio6_dummy ==
1Source | SS df MSNumber of obs
=%&-------------+------------------------------ !1"%1$ =*.*1
Model |.*&9*29&'9 1.*&9*29&'9 (rob ) =*.9+esidu,l
|&2&.981%8'%1'.&%2%8*11 +-s.u,red
=*.***1-------------+------------------------------ /d0 +-s.u,red =
-*.*19% 1ot,l |&2-.*2*'1%%2'.2&11'%'# +oot
MS2=2.%2*-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
fh_ipolity2 |3oef. Std. 2rr.t()|t| 49%5 3o6f.
76ter8,l9-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------lgle_rgdpc
| .*291%92 .**9' *.*8 *.9&8-.#1#'81&.##%999' _co6s |
%.**%2*' 2.82-%2- 1.##
*.*82-.''%2'2#1*.'#%'#------------------------------------------------------------------------------9nter#ret!ngth!$,
a1G!ncrea$e!nreal :)P#erca#!taofcountr!e$!n
Afr!ca%ould!ncrea$ethedeocrac"$coreb"0.029.
Ba$!ngfrothep/alue+0.938,, th!$re$ult !$not$tat!$t!call"
$!gn!f!cant at a 5G $!gn!f!cance le/el. F-$2uared !$ at 0G..
regfh_ipolity2 lgle_rgdpc ifregio6_dummy == 2Source | SS df
MSNumber of obs =&'-------------+------------------------------
!1"&-$ =#.8* Model |2'.8'&*18- 12'.8'&*18- (rob )
=*.**8%+esidu,l |11#.*9-*'-&-&.--&9-&*# +-s.u,red
=*.18''-------------+------------------------------ /d0 +-s.u,red
=*.1'2# 1ot,l |1-&.9%#*8&&%-.11&*%9%1 +oot
MS2=1.8%%8------------------------------------------------------------------------------
fh_ipolity2 |3oef. Std. 2rr.t()|t| 49%5 3o6f.
76ter8,l9-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------lgle_rgdpc
| .9-&%'82 .&% 2.#9 *.**9 .2%'9#-%1.'&*1'2 _co6s
|-.1&*' &.**898%-*.*-
*.9''-'.2-%'&1%.98-&%#------------------------------------------------------------------------------9nter#ret!ng
th!$, a 1G !ncrea$e !n real :)P #er ca#!ta of countr!e$ !n Aer!ca
%ould!ncrea$e the deocrac" $core b" 0.943. Ba$!ng frothep/alue
+0.009,, th!$ re$ult !$$tat!$t!call" $!gn!f!cant at a 5G
$!gn!f!cance le/el. F-$2uared !$ around 18G.. regfh_ipolity2
lgle_rgdpc ifregio6_dummy == &Source | SS df MSNumber of obs
=-%-------------+------------------------------ !1"-&$ =*.11
Model |1.*2%#8%%# 11.*2%#8%%# (rob ) =*.#-'%+esidu,l
|-1'.#2-&-&9.'912'&'' +-s.u,red
=*.**2%-------------+------------------------------ /d0 +-s.u,red =
-*.*2*# 1ot,l |-1#.#%*12&--9.-9-&2*98 +oot
MS2=&.11&1------------------------------------------------------------------------------
fh_ipolity2 |3oef. Std. 2rr.t()|t| 49%5 3o6f.
76ter8,l9-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------lgle_rgdpc
| .1&'112# .-18*1 *.&& *.#-# -.#*#'11.9#98&'- _co6s
| &.22'8*2 &.##9-18 *.8%
*.&98--.&9%1221*.8-8#&------------------------------------------------------------------------------9nter#ret!ng
th!$, a 1G !ncrea$e !n real :)P #er ca#!ta of countr!e$ !n A$!a
%ould !ncrea$ethe deocrac" $core b" 0.13>. Ba$!ng fro thep/alue
+0.747,, th!$ re$ult !$ not $tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant at a 5G
$!gn!f!cance le/el. F-$2uared !$ at 0.25G.. regfh_ipolity2
lgle_rgdpc ifregio6_dummy == -Source | SS df MSNumber of obs
=-1-------------+------------------------------ !1"&9$ = 11.22
Model |2'.&1&9*19 12'.&1&9*19 (rob )
=*.**18+esidu,l |91.-82#*-1&92.&-%#1*&' +-s.u,red
=*.22&--------------+------------------------------ /d0
+-s.u,red =*.2*&% 1ot,l |11#.#9''*'-*2.9--91%1% +oot
MS2=1.%&1'------------------------------------------------------------------------------
fh_ipolity2 |3oef. Std. 2rr.t()|t| 49%5 3o6f.
76ter8,l9-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------lgle_rgdpc
| 1.19%8*2 .&%#*29& &.&% *.**2 .-#&'-211.91#9'2
_co6s |-2.82*&%8 &.%#9*99-*.#9
*.-&%-1*.*%9##-.-19*%&------------------------------------------------------------------------------9nter#ret!ngth!$,
a1G!ncrea$e!nreal :)P #erca#!taofcountr!e$!n'uro#e%ould!ncrea$e the
deocrac" $core b" 1.19>. Ba$!ng fro the p /alue +0.002,, th!$
re$ult !$ $tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant at a 5G $!gn!f!cance le/el.
F-$2uared !$ at 22G.. regfh_ipolity2 lgle_rgdpc ifregio6_dummy ==
%Source | SS df MSNumber of obs
=1--------------+------------------------------ !1"12$ =*.98 Model
|-.*9%1#9#8 1-.*9%1#9#8 (rob ) =*.&-1&+esidu,l
|%*.*-1-9&812-.1#*12--8 +-s.u,red
=*.*#%'-------------+------------------------------ /d0 +-s.u,red =
-*.**1- 1ot,l |%-.1&''#&%1& -.1'-&%9% +oot
MS2=2.*-21------------------------------------------------------------------------------
fh_ipolity2 |3oef. Std. 2rr.t()|t| 49%5 3o6f.
76ter8,l9-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------lgle_rgdpc
| .%8&19'- .%88%*8# *.99 *.&-1-.'99*%&91.8'%--# _co6s |
&.8-2#-8 -.88*-1- *.#9
*.--'-'.#9*#'11-.-#'2'------------------------------------------------------------------------------9nter#ret!ng
th!$, a 1G !ncrea$e !n real :)P #er ca#!ta of countr!e$ !n
&cean!a %ould!ncrea$ethedeocrac"$coreb"0.583.
Ba$!ngfrothep/alue+0.341,, th!$re$ult !$not$tat!$t!call"
$!gn!f!cant at a 5G $!gn!f!cance le/el. F-$2uared !$ at 7G.0he
re$ult$ $ho% that the #attern of the #o$!t!/e relat!on$h!# bet%een
econo!c gro%thand deocrac" doe$ not nece$$ar!l" e6!$t !n all #art$
of the %orld. 1.3 (ro$$ -ect!on &'() (ountr!e$Belo% are the
re$ult$ generated fro -tata?. regfh_ipolity2 lgle_rgdpcSource | SS
df MSNumber of obs
=&&-------------+------------------------------ !1"&1$
= 1*.-% Model |2.'2'--%81 12.'2'--%81 (rob ) =*.**29+esidu,l
|#.#919*%&2&1.2%1&%1#8% +-s.u,red
=*.2%21-------------+------------------------------ /d0 +-s.u,red
=*.228* 1ot,l |1*.-18&%11&2.&2%%#&-#& +oot
MS2=.%*1&%------------------------------------------------------------------------------
fh_ipolity2 |3oef. Std. 2rr.t()|t| 49%5 3o6f.
76ter8,l9-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------lgle_rgdpc
| .#-1281'.229&19 &.2& *.**& .2#&%82%1.2*8981
_co6s | 2.1#2--1 2.&-18#% *.9&
*.&'1-2.'*&8--'.9-8#2'------------------------------------------------------------------------------9nter#ret!ng
th!$, a 1G !ncrea$e !n real :)P #er ca#!ta %ould !ncrea$e the
deocrac" $core b" 0.741. Ba$!ng fro the p /alue +0.003,, th!$
re$ult !$ $tat!$t!call" $!gn!f!cant at a 5G $!gn!f!cance le/el.
F-$2uared !$ at around 25G. Belo% !$ a $catter #lot of the abo/e
regre$$!on?5ro th!$, there !$ generall" a #o$!t!/e relat!on$h!#
bet%een econo!c gro%th and deocrac". 9t $hould be noted ho%e/er,
that there are t%o d!$t!nct outl!er$ !n the data fro &'()
countr!e$.2.1 Panel All (ountr!e$Belo% are the re$ult$ generated
fro -tata?. ;tregfh_ipolity2 l,g%fh_ipolity2 l,g1*fh_ipolity2
lgle_cgdpc bl_,sy2%f bl_,sy2%mf +p/alue 0.000A $tat!$t!call"
$!gn!f!cant,. A 1G !ncrea$e !n real :)P #er ca#!ta %ould !ncrea$e
thecurrent deocrac" $core b" 0.413 +p /alue 0.000A $tat!$t!call"
$!gn!f!cant,. A one "ear !ncrea$e !nthe a/erage "ear$ of $chool!ng
for feale$ %ould decrea$e the current deocrac" $core b" 0.134+p
/alue 0.297A $tat!$t!call" !n$!gn!f!cant,. A one "ear !ncrea$e !n
the a/erage "ear$ of
$chool!ngforale$andfeale$%ould!ncrea$ethecurrent
deocrac"$coreb"0.329+p/alue0.01>A$tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant,.
Aone"ear
!ncrea$e!nch!ldortal!t"%oulddecrea$ethecurrentdeocrac"$core
b"0.012+p/alue 0.000A $tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant,. A1G!ncrea$e !n
the#o#ulat!on%oulddecrea$e the currentdeocrac" $core b" 0.288
+p/alue0.127A$tat!$t!call"!n$!gn!f!cant,. F-$2uared !$ o/erall at
around 52G. 0h!$ !$ the re$ult for all countr!e$.2.2 Panel Per
Feg!on. ;tregfh_ipolity2 l,g%fh_ipolity2 l,g1*fh_ipolity2
lgle_cgdpc bl_,sy2%f bl_,sy2%mf 05
+p/alue0.000A$tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant,. F-$2uared !$ o/erall at
around 0G. 0h!$ !$ the re$ult for countr!e$ !n Afr!ca..
;tregfh_ipolity2 l,g%fh_ipolity2 l,g1*fh_ipolity2 lgle_cgdpc
bl_,sy2%f bl_,sy2%mf +p/alue 0.000A $tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant,.
A1G!ncrea$e !n the#o#ulat!on%oulddecrea$e the currentdeocrac" $core
b" 1.87> +p/alue0.002A$tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant,. F-$2uared !$
o/erall at around 23G. 0h!$ !$ the re$ult for countr!e$ !n Aer!ca..
;tregfh_ipolity2 l,g%fh_ipolity2 l,g1*fh_ipolity2 lgle_cgdpc
bl_,sy2%f bl_,sy2%mf !2#" 9%'$ =2%.1* (rob )= *.****9nter#ret!ng
th!$, a #o!nt !ncrea$e !n the deocrac" $core fro 5 "ear$ ago %ould
!ncrea$ethe current deocrac" $core b" 0.357 +p /alue 0.000A
$tat!$t!call" $!gn!f!cant,. A #o!nt !ncrea$e !nthe deocrac" $core
fro 10 "ear$ ago %ould decrea$e the current deocrac" $core b" 0.120
+p/alue 0.000A $tat!$t!call" $!gn!f!cant,. A 1G !ncrea$e !n real
:)P #er ca#!ta %ould decrea$e thecurrent deocrac" $core b" 0.345 +p
/alue 0.000A $tat!$t!call" $!gn!f!cant,. A one "ear !ncrea$e !nthe
a/erage "ear$ of $chool!ng for feale$ %ould !ncrea$e the current
deocrac" $core b" 0.135+p /alue 0.475A $tat!$t!call"
!n$!gn!f!cant,. A one "ear !ncrea$e !n the a/erage "ear$ of
$chool!ngforale$andfeale$%ould!ncrea$ethecurrent
deocrac"$coreb"0.023+p/alue0.907A$tat!$t!call"!n$!gn!f!cant,.A
one"ear!ncrea$e!nch!ldortal!t"%oulddecrea$ethecurrentdeocrac"$core
b"0.008+p/alue 0.000A $tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant,. A1G!ncrea$e !n
the#o#ulat!on%oulddecrea$e the currentdeocrac" $core b" 0.>09
+p/alue0.042A$tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant,. F-$2uared !$ o/erall at
around 8G. 0h!$ !$ the re$ult for countr!e$ !n A$!a..
;tregfh_ipolity2 l,g%fh_ipolity2 l,g1*fh_ipolity2 lgle_cgdpc
bl_,sy2%f bl_,sy2%mf 7+p /alue 0.00A $tat!$t!call" $!gn!f!cant,. A
one "ear !ncrea$e !n the a/erage "ear$ of $chool!ng forale$
andfeale$ %oulddecrea$e the current deocrac"$core b"2.017 +p/alue
0.00A$tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant,. Aone"ear
!ncrea$e!nch!ldortal!t"%oulddecrea$ethecurrentdeocrac"$core
b"0.058+p/alue 0.000A $tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant,. A1G!ncrea$e !n
the#o#ulat!on %ould decrea$e the current deocrac" $core b" 15.511
+p /alue 0.000A $tat!$t!call"$!gn!f!cant,. F-$2uared !$ o/erall at
around 7G. 0h!$ !$ the re$ult for countr!e$ !n 'uro#e..
;tregfh_ipolity2 l,g%fh_ipolity2 l,g1*fh_ipolity2 lgle_cgdpc
bl_,sy2%f bl_,sy2%mf > +p/alue 0.174A $tat!$t!call"
!n$!gn!f!cant,. A one "ear !ncrea$e !n ch!ld ortal!t" %ould
!ncrea$e thecurrent deocrac" $core b" 0.030 +p /alue 0.443A
$tat!$t!call" !n$!gn!f!cant,. A 1G !ncrea$e !n
the#o#ulat!on%oulddecrea$e the currentdeocrac" $core b" 2.8>1
+p/alue0.432A$tat!$t!call"!n$!gn!f!cant,. F-$2uared !$ o/erall at
around >2G. 0h!$ !$ the re$ult for countr!e$ !n &cean!a.9I.
onclusion and Recommendation1. on cro$$ $ect!on regre$$!on$-
relat!on$h!# bet%een econo!c gro%th and deocrac" !$ #o$!t!/e %hen
%e regre$$ed for all countr!e$- re$ult$ not $!gn!f!cant !n $oe
reg!on$, g!/e #o$$!ble rea$on %h" +e.g. !n Aer!ca and 'uro#e,
#o$!t!/eLL or!g!n$ of deocrac"A a$!a LL o$t fa$t gro%!ng countr!e$
are not reall" deocrat!c,- relat!on$h!# bet%een econo!c gro%th and
deocrac" !$ al$o #o$!t!/e !n oecd countr!e$- note that the general
#red!ct!on$ are e6#ected LL aer!can and euro#ean, oecd
relat!on$h!#$. odel f!t !$ better %!th aer!caHeuro#e, oecd LL r2 !$
h!gher co#ared to the regre$$!on for all countr!e$2. on #anel-
e6#la!n the relat!on$h!# of the !nde#endent /ar!able$ to deocrac"-
e6#la!n ore on the /ar!at!on$ of the /ar!able$ #er reg!on #ero
focu$ ore on econo!c gro%th and econo!c de/elo#ent !nd!cator$- can
d!$cu$$ ho% odel !$ bad f!t +/er" lo% r2, for $oe reg!on$ LL f!t
/ar!at!on$ acro$$ the d!fferent reg!on$- d!$cu$$ /ar!at!on$ !n the
$!gn$ and $!gn!f!cance of the d!fferent /ar!able$ acro$$ the
d!fferent reg!on$3. recoendat!on$- ore data LL to control for l!fe
e6#ectanc"A ore countr!e$ for educat!on !nd!cator$ +generall"
reduced our countr" $a#le becau$e of l!!tat!on$ to the educat!on
data,- longer t!e frae- !nclu$!on of other deter!nant$ of deocrac"
accdg to Barro +1999,!. Re"erences Aceoglu, )., K Fob!n$on, C.
+200>,. Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy.
(abr!dge? (abr!dge 3n!/er$!t" Pre$$. Aceoglu, )aron, -!on Cohn$on,
Cae$ Fob!n$on, and P!erre =ared. M9ncoe and )eocrac".M American
Economic Review 93.3 +2008,? 808-42. Pr!nt. Ar!$totle. +1932,.
Politics. 0ran$lated b" 8. Fackha. (abr!dge, ;a$$achu$ett$? 8ar/ard
3n!/er$!t" Pre$$. Barro, Fobert. M)eocrac" K :ro%th.M no. 4909
+1994,. Barro, Fobert C. M)eter!nant$ &f )eocrac".M Journal of
Political Economy 15 +1999,? -158-183. Pr!nt. Bau, ;atthe% A., and
)a/!d A. -57. 0eorell, Can, -tefan )ahlberg, -Pren 8olberg, Bo
Foth$te!n, 5el!6 8artann K F!chard -/en$$on. 2015. 0he Jual!t" of
:o/ernent -tandard )ata$et, /er$!on Can15. 3n!/er$!t" of
:othenburg? 0he Jual!t" of :o/ernent 9n$t!tute,
htt#?HH%%%.2og.#ol.gu.$e.
