PORTUGAL
REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT
Results Q1 2020
Economic Overview
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – Q1 2020
3
Source: Bank of Portugal; Observador and OECD analysed by Savills Research
GDP Growth(Q1 2020 YoY)
2.2%
Inflation(Q1 2020 YoY)
0.5%
Private Consumption
Growth (Q4 2019 YoY)
2.0%
Exports(Q4 2019 YoY)
6.3%
Unemployment
Rate(Q1 2020)
6.5%
Public Debt(bn €)
255.4
6.5%6.7%6.6%7.9%
10.1%
12.1%
13.6%
15.1%
17.3%
14.4%
12.2%11.3%
7.3%7.4%7.8%8.6%
9.6%10.5%
11.3%11.9%11.9%
10.7%10.1%10.1%
Q12020
Q42019
Q42018
Q42017
Q42016
Q42015
Q42014
Q42013
Q42012
Q42011
Q42010
Q42009
Unemployment Rate
Portugal Europe
The pandemic situation that is being part of our
lives will lead to a slowdown in the economic
activity, which is still impossible to quantify.
However, ISEG (Lisbon School of Economics and
Management), forecasts a decrease of the GDP
between 4% and 8%, with the growth of this
indicator happening only in the last quarter of
2020, an opinion also shared by Bank of Portugal.
Investment Market
INVESTMENT MARKET - Q1 2020
5
Source: Savills
Total Investment Volume Q1 2020: 1.4 €Bn
The total investment market volume during the Q1 2020
registered a significant growth comparing with the
homologous period, mostly because of the transaction of
50% of the Sonae Sierra Fund, where some of the biggest
national shopping centers are included (such as Colombo,
Vasco da Gama, Cascais Shopping and Norte Shopping),
estimated in €750 M;
During the 1st quarter of 2020, there was registered a total of
13 transactions, which represent the same number of
transactions comparing with the same period of 2019. Circa
of 62% of all transactions were above €100 M.
-100,00%
-50,00%
0,00%
50,00%
100,00%
150,00%
200,00%
250,00%
300,00%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020
% V
ariation
€M
Total Investment Volume
Investment Volume (€M) Variation (%)
6
Source: Savills
INVESTMENT MARKET – Q1 2020
The Q1 2020 main highlight was the retails segment, which reached a total
investment volume over 12 times higher than the homologous period, with
a total of €817.55 M;
The segment of hospitality with €300 M, and offices with €255 M, complete
the other 2 spots of the 3 main business sectors;
DEVELOPMENT: The investment regarding a future change of the
asset’s use, mainly for residential and hospitality sectors, was also
encourager during the Q1 2020;
The development transactions were mainly in the city center, which we
consider as a signal of the high appetite that exists for the Portuguese
capital.
29
792
18 10
190
68
836
5628
255
817.55
2.15
300
Offices Retail Industrial &Logistics
Hospitality Mixed Use Others
Investment by Business Sector (€M)
Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020
7
Source: Savills
INVESTMENT MARKET – Q1 2020
55%
15%
50%57%
87%
73%82% 82%
62%
17% 14% 12%21%
10%15%
24%
45%
85%
50%43%
13%
27%18% 18%
38%
83% 86% 88%79%
90%85%
76%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q12020
Cross Border vs Domestic Investment
Domestic Cross-border
29.7
153.2
470
750
≤ 20 21 - 100 101 - 300 ≥ 301
Nº Transactions (Units) andInvestment Volume (€M)
3 15 2
8
INVESTMENT MARKET – Q1 2020
54%Germany /
Finland
23%Portugal
€750* M
€328 M
53.46%
23.35%
12.12%
4.50%
3.56%2.85%
0.15%
Investment Volume by Purchaser Nationality
Germany / Finland
Portugal
USA
NA
Switzerland
UK
France
* Estimated Value
12%USA
4%Switzerland
> €170 M
€50 M
* Estimated Value
Source: Savills
9
Fonte: Savills
Top Investors Q1 2020
INVESTMENT MARKET – Q1 2020
INVESTMENT MARKET – Q1 2020
10
Source: Savills
50% Sonae Sierra Fund
Colombo, Vasco da Gama, Cascais and Norte Shopping Centers
RETAIL
Seller: Sonae Sierra / APG
Buyer: Allianz / Ello
10 Hotels
HOSPITALITY
Seller: Grupo Bernardino Gomes
Buyer: Stakecorp / Palminvest
PREOF Portfolio
2 assets
OFFICES
Seller: Finsolutia
Buyer: Cerberus
Fórum Viseu
RETAIL
Seller: Square AM
Buyer: Light House Group
€750M*
€300 M €170 M €40 M
Top Transactions
* Estimated Value
INVESTMENT MARKET – Q1 2020
11
Source: Savills
PRIME YIELD (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020
Offices (Gross) 7.75 7.25 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.00 4.00
Shopping Centres (Net) 8.00 8.00 6.25 5.50 5.50 5.00 5.00 4.75 4.75
Retail Parks (Net) 10.00 10.00 9.00 7.25 7.25 6.75 6.75 6.50 6.50
High Street (Gross) 7.25 6.75 5.75 5.00 5.00 4.50 4.25 3.75 3.75
Industrial & Logistics (Gross) 10.00 9.75 8.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 6.50 6.25 6.25
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020
%
Prime Yield by Sector
Offices (Gross) Shopping Centres (Net) Retail Parks (Net) High Street (Gross) Industrial & Logistics (Gross)
Lisbon Office Market
ZONE MAP – LISBON OFFICE MARKET
13
Lisbon office market is divided in 6 big zones, as
following:
Zone 1 – Prime CBD
Zone 2 – CBD
Zone 3 – Emerging Office Zone
Zone 4 – Secondary Office Zone
Zone 5 – Parque das Nações
Zone 6 – Western Corridor
LPI is the Index used to evaluate the Lisbon Office Market
Performance.
It’s a Real Estate Index that monthly shows the sq m traded
and the correspondent lease values (sq. m./month) .
Prime CBD (Zone 1) and CBD (Zone 2) represent the Prime
Location in the Lisbon Office Market.
LISBON OFFICE MARKET
14
ZONE 1 - PRIME CBD
N.B.: All offices located outside the main zones are included in the so-called zone 7, which corresponds geographically to all the
areas of Lisbon which are not within zones 1 to 6.
Area: From Av. da Liberdade to the Praça Duque de Saldanha.
Description: The leading zone of Lisbon.
Occupiers: The main area for head offices and back offices in the banking and
insurance sector plus offices of the largest law firms.
ZONE 2 - CBD
Area: Av. da República, Av. Duque de Loulé and the Amoreiras area.
Description: Central and established area of Lisbon.
Occupiers: Service companies and state entities
ZONE 3 – EMERGING ZONE OFFICE
Area: From Campo Grande to the 2nd Circular ring road, the areas of Benfica,
Praça de Espanha and Sete Rios.
Description: Close to the main roads into and around Lisbon.
Occupiers: Head offices and back offices for the banking sector.
ZONE 4 – SECONDARY ZONE
Area: From Av. Infante Santo to the Av. 24 de Julho.
Description: Riverside and historic area of Lisbon.
Occupiers: Small businesses in various sectors.
ZONE 5 – PARQUE DAS NAÇÕES
Area: Parque das Nações.
Description: The most recently developed area of Lisbon with excellent transport
and other facilities.
Occupiers: HQs of multi national companies and state services.
ZONE 6 – WESTERN CORRIDOR
Area: Along the A5 motorway, up to Porto Salvo and Alfragide.
Description: A zone on the periphery of Lisbon along the motorway to Cascais.
Supply is generally in office parks.
Occupiers: HQs of multi national and IT companies.
15
Source: Savills / LPI
LISBON OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
44,671 sq.m.
Non
Financial
Companies
21,219 sq.m.
Relocation
52%
Take-upMost Dynamic
Business Sector
Best
Performance
Zone
Zone 5
11,848 sq.m.
Q1 2020 vs Q1
2019 (variation)
6.9%
Reason for Letting
16
Source: Savills / LPI
LISBON OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
3,3
72
9,3
40 65
,21
0
19
,83
8
2,7
08
0
41
,77
9
2,9
52
11
,38
1
3,7
95
24
0
11
,84
8
11
,50
7
2,9
48
44
,67
1
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total Market
Take Up (sq.m.)
2019 2020
1012
4
0
5
12
0
43
5 5
21
6
12
3
34
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total Market
Number of Transactions
2019 2020
2,952
sq.m.
11,381
sq.m.
3,795
sq.m.
240
sq.m.
Zone 1
Prime CBD
Zone 2
CBD
Zone 3
Emerging
Zone
Zone 4
Secondary
Office Zone
11,848
sq.m.
Zone 5
Parque das
Nações
11,507
sq.m.
Zone 6
Western
Corridor
2,948
sq.m.
Zone 7
Other Zones
Va
riatio
n–
Q1
2
02
0 / 2
01
9
-14
.2%
17
.9%
-71.8
%
+ 2
40 s
q.m
.
-67
.4%
+ 7
6.5
%
+ 2
,948 s
q.m
.
44,671
sq.m.
34
Nº TRANSACTIONS
MARKET TOTAL
TAKE - UP
MARKET TOTAL
LISBON OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
Source: Savills / LPI
Va
riatio
n–
Q1
2
02
0 / 2
01
9
Va
riatio
n–
Q1
2
02
0 / 2
01
9
Va
riatio
n–
Q1
2
02
0 / 2
01
9
Va
riatio
n–
Q1
2
02
0 / 2
01
9
Va
riatio
n–
Q1
2
02
0 / 2
01
9
Va
ria
tio
n–
Q1
2
02
0 /
2
01
9
+ 6.5%
∆ 20/19
- 26.5%
∆ 20/19
18
Source: Savills | LPI
LISBON OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
21
14
3 3
1 1
14
8
2
4 4
2
≤ 300 301 to 800 801 to 1.500 1.501 to 3.000 3.001 to 5.000 ≥ 5.001
Number of Transactions (Units) by Interval Area
2019 2020
13
18
9
12
15
2
Expanstion Relocations New Company in Lisbon Area
Reasons for Letting (Units)
2019 2020
19
Source: Savills / LPI
LISBON OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
4,3
01 2
,421
753
535
1,3
85
0
8,2
39
18,8
41
4,8
11
0
505
1,7
09
2,7
52
2,5
38
355
21,2
18
7,3
61
8,2
33
Construction & RealEstate
Consultants & Lawyers State, Europe &Associations
Pharmaceuticals &Healthcare
Other Services Consumer Products Non FinantialEnterprises
Finantial Institutions TMTs & Utilities
Take Up by Business Sector (sq.m.)
Q1 2019 Q1 2020
Non Financial
Companies
Financial Institutions
20
TOP 10 – Deals Done Q1 2020
Source: Savills / LPI
Market Zone New/Used Building GLA Tenant Business Sector Demand Reason
5 U Novo Banco - Oriente 343 6,164 Randstad Non Financial Enterprises Relocation
6 U Proletariado, 1 5,279 INFOSISTEMA TMT's & Utilities Relocation
2 N Defensores de Chaves, 4 4,576 IdeaiHub Non Financial Enterprises Expansion
5 U Explorer 3,738 Majorel Non Financial Enterprises NA
3 U Green Park 3,638 BNP Paribas Financial Institutions Expansion
2 U Sousa Martins, 10 3,218 Agap2 Non Financial Enterprises Relocation
6 N Alagoa Office & Retail Center - E3 2,892 Santander Consumer Financial Institutions Relocation
2 N Duque de Loulé, 106 2,370 CVT Business Services Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare New Company in Lisbon Region
7 U Rock One 1,718 GMV Non Financial Enterprises Expansion
1 U Joaquim António Aguiar, 19 1,709 Associação de Futebol de Lisboa State, Europe and Associations Relocation
LISBON OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
LISBON OFFICE MARKET – Q1 2020
21
STOCK Q1 2020 = 4,259,039 sq.m.
The development of new supply continues to be lower than the dynamic demand that has been verified. However, the promotion of office buildings
begins to show clear signs of increase for the next 3 years.
Zone 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020
1. Prime CBD 597,767 597,767 595,139 552,918 554,750 571,650
2. CBD 1,096,077 1,096,077 1,096,077 932,622 940,640 940,640
3. Emerging Office Zone 491,247 502,350 501,738 513,850 548,246 537,562
4. Secondary Office Zone 390,225 387,804 418,536 343,472 360,315 357,550
5. "Parque das Nações" 359,149 359,149 361,389 414,618 417,118 417,118
6. Western Corridor 909,036 916,250 916,250 934,946 976,769 965,469
7. Others 768,003 778,524 778,524 463,173 469,050 469,050
TOTAL 4,611,504 4,637,921 4,667,653 4,155,599 4,266,888 4,259,039
Greater Lisbon Offices – Stock (sq.m.)
Source: Savills / LPI
22
LISBON OFFICE MARKET – Q1 2020
Source: Savills | LPI
Pipeline confirmed
Building Conclusion date Market Zone GLA (sq.m) Pre-Let In negotiation
Castilho 213 Q2 2020 1 1,869
Defensores de Chaves 4 Q2 2020 2 4,576 4,576
Quinta da Alagoa E2 e E3 (old factory of Legrand) Q2 2020 6 6,525 3,000
Quinta da Alagoa E4 Q2 2020 6 2,850
Castilho 50 Q2 2020 1 6,211 6,211
Galerias RITZ Q2 2020 1 2,300
Malhoa 11 Q3 2020 3 6,300
HUB Creativo do Beato Q4 2020 7 11,000 11,000
Monumental Q2 2021 2 18,000 15,000
K Tower Q2 2021 5 15,000 7,000
AGEAS Headquarters Q3 2021 5 17,400 17,400
Building Miniclip Q4 2021 6 3,700 3,700
Building PHC Q3 2021 6 3,700 3,700
World Trade Center Q3 2021 6 25,000
EXEO – Fase 1 2022 5 30,000 9,000
EDP 2 Q1 2022 4 11,400
Colombo 3rd Tower Q4 2022 3 34,000
Metropolis (NOS) To be defined 3 15,000 15,000
Carnaxide Tower To be defined 6 13,770
Total 228,601 76,587 16,000
Pipeline to be confirmed (project phase)
Building Conclusion date Market Zone GLA(sq.m) Pre-Let In negotiation
EXEO – Phase 2 To be defined 5 38,000
Entrecampos To be defined 2 148,480
Metropolis To be defined 3 37,600
Former Fábrica Barros To be defined 5 30,000 30,000
HQ Jerónimo Martins Project Phase - Date conclusion to be defined 3 22,000 22,000
Offices Braço de Prata Project To be defined 7 7,000
Total 283,080 52,000
LISBON OFFICE MARKET – Q1 2020
23
Vacancy Rate Evolution 2006 – 2018
Source: Savills / LPI
Lisbon Office Market Vacancy Rate Q1 2020: 5.42%
The vacancy rate will continue under strong pressure throughout 2020, due to the scarcity of new supply, in particular the market zones that already have very low vacancy rates: zones
1, 4 and 5.
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
20,00%
25,00%
30,00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 Q1 2020
Vacancy Rate
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6
4.37% 3.4% 3.87% 0.4% 0.69% 12.82%
24
Source: Savills / LPI
LISBON OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
17.5
0 € 1
5.0
0 € 1
2.5
0 €
11.0
0 €
14.0
0 €
12.5
0 €
19.0
0 €
16.0
0 €
12.0
0 €
15.5
0 €
14.5
0 €
13.2
5 €
20.5
0 € 1
8.0
0 € 1
5.5
0 €
15.0
0 €
16.0
0 € 1
3.5
0 €
22.0
0 €
18.0
0 €
17.0
0 €
20.0
0 €
17.0
0 €
13.5
0 €
23.0
0 €
19.7
0 €
16.5
0 €
16.0
0 €
19.0
0 €
15.0
0 €
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6
Prime Rents (€/sq.m.)
Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020
Porto Office Market
26
Source: Savills / PPI
PORTO OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
19,123 sq.m.
Non
Financial
Companies
6,181 sq.m.
Take-up
Most Dynamic
Business Sector
Best
Performance
Zone
Boavista CBD
6,713 sq.m.
Q1 2020 vs Q1
2019 (variation)
+ 323%
27
Source: Savills / PPI
PORTO OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
2,448
508 559
70
932
6,713
650
3,600
4,256
3,904
Boavista CBD Baixa CBD Expansion Zones Others in Porto City Out of Town
Take Up (sq.m.)
Q1 2019 Q1 2020
28
Source: Savills / PPI
PORTO OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
202
1,1
19
1,4
32
1,7
64
0 0 0
584
641
1,8
98
0
3,0
00
7,1
40
5,8
86
≤ 150 151 - 300 301 - 800 800 - 1500 1501 - 3000 3001 - 5000 ≥5001
Take Up by Interval Area (sq.m.)
Q1 2019 Q1 2020
3
5
3
2
0 0 0
5
3
4
0
1
2
1
≤ 150 151 - 300 301 - 800 800 - 1500 1501 - 3000 3001 - 5000 ≥5001
Transactions by Interval Area (Units)
Q1 2019 Q1 2020
29
Source: Savills / PPI
PORTO OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
53 0
1,3
84
70
1,2
85
0
1,7
25
0
6,8
92 6
,19
1
5,0
99
33
0
23
3
15
0
13
2
13
2
Take Up by Activity Sector (sq.m.)
Q1 2019 Q1 2020
6
3
4
3
5
8
Relocation Expansion New Company in Porto Area
Reasons for Letting (Units)
Q1 2019 Q1 2020
30
Source: Savills / PPI
PORTO OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
18
.00
€
15
.00
€
14
.00
€
13
.10
€
12
.00
€
18
.00
€
15
.00
€
12
.50
€
14
.00
€
Boavista CBD Baixa CBD Expansion Zones Others in Porto City Out of Town
Prime Rents (€/sq.m.)
Q1 2019 Q1 2020
Pipeline
Building Area (sq.m.)
Porto Office Park 31,000
Palácio dos Correios 16,800
Centro Empresarial da Lionesa (Expansion) 45,000
ICON Offices 24,000
Porto Business Plaza 15,500
7.00% 7.00%
6.75% 6.75%
6.50%
6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Prime Yield
14
.00
€
Downtown CBD
31
TOP 10 – Deals Done Q1 2020
Source: Savills / LPI
Market Zone New/Used Building GLA Tenant Business Sector Demand Reason
CBD Boavista N POP - Porto Office Park 5,886 Concentrix Non Financial Enterprises Expansion
Oriental U Heroísmo, 285 3,600 SITEL TMT's & Utilities RelocationOthers in
Porto U Hipercentro 3,540 GKN Automotive Portugal, Lda. Other Services New Company in Porto Area
Matosinhos N Centro Empresarial Lionesa 3,000 Vestas Other Services ExpansionOthers in
Porto U Paços de S. João 716 DefinedCrowd TMT's & Utilities ExpansionCBD
Downtown U Central Park 500 SDL TMT´s & Utilities New Company in Porto Area
Matosinhos N Ivens 352 (Confidential) Other Services New Company in Porto Area
CBD Boavista U Oceanus 330 TeakCapital Construction & Real Estate Expansion
CBD Boavista U Burgo Torre 173 EXADS TMT's & Utilities RelocationCBD
Downtown U Sá da Bandeira, 819 150 AICEP Portugal GlobalState, Europe and
Associations Expansion
PORTO OFFICE MARKET - Q1 2020
Retail Market
RETAIL MARKET - Q1 2020 | SHOPPING CENTERS
33
Source: Savills
SUPPLY
In Portugal, the shopping centers were built between
1995 and 2009, and in 2010 the number of centers
reached a level of maturity, so few have appeared since
then.
Most large and medium cities and towns have at least
one shopping center that covers the retail needs of the
surrounding population.
Currently, the major dynamism of shopping centers
comes from the rebranding and innovation in current
supply.
16%
18%
16%
7%
3%Azores and Madeira
6 Shopping Centers
Greater Lisbon
45 Shopping Centers
Algarve
12 Shopping Centers
Centre
30 Shopping Centers
Greater Porto
25 Shoppings Center
North
26 Shopping Centers
1%
Alentejo
1 Shopping Center
29%
8%Península de Setúbal
10 Shopping Centers
TOTAL STOCK: 4.2 MILLION sq.m.
SHOPPING CENTERS: 3.7M sq.m.
RETAIL PARKS: 383,951 sq.m.
FACTORY OUTLETS: 143,341 sq.m.
RETAIL MARKET – Q1 2020 | SHOPPING CENTERS
34
Source: Savills
North18%
Greater Porto16%
Center16%Setúbal
Peninsula8%
Algarve10%
Azores/Madeira3%
Greater Lisbon29%
Stock Distribution by RegionShopping Centers
Future expansions:
Oeiras Parque
Colombo Shopping Center
Glicínias
Dolce Vita Tejo
79
,77
3
24
3,7
61
18
9,5
58
22
4,4
89
22
8,6
87
20
4,9
29
56
,80
1
12
8,6
14
0
4,5
10
41
,20
0 11
,00
0
0
94
,66
9
0
7,1
00
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q12020
Total New Area per Year (sq.m.)
RETAIL MARKET – Q1 2020 | HIGH STREET RETAIL
35
Urban regeneration continues to be an important driver
of high street commerce, bringing life to new commercial
spaces throughout Lisbon.
From an action that started in the heart of the city,
focused on the historic centre, commercial spaces
dedicated to the most varied activities are now
multiplying in more secondary streets, turning Lisbon into
a diversified, attractive and 100% cosmopolitan retail
destination.
Source: Savills
RETAIL INVESTMENT MARKET – Q1 2020
90.00 € 90.00 €100.00 € 100.00 € 100.00 €
130.00 € 130.00 €
160.00 € 160.00 €
75.00 € 75.00 € 75.00 € 85.00 €95.00 € 100.00 € 100.00 € 100.00 100.00 €
8.00 € 8.00 € 8.25 € 9.00 € 9.00 € 10.00 € 10.50 € 10.50 € 10.50 €
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020
Prime Rents (€/sq.m.)
Lisbon High Street Retail Shopping Centres Retail Parks
4.75%
3.75%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q12020
%
Prime Yields
Shopping Centres (Net) High Street (Gross)
RETAIL INVESTMENT MARKET – Q1 2020
Source: Savills
MAIN RETAIL INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS
Asset Buyer NationalityArea
(sq.m.)
Value
(€M)
Q1
2020
50% Sonae Sierra Fund
(Colombo, Vasco da Gama, Cascais and Norte Shoppings included)German/Finland
NA 750.00
Fórum Viseu UK 40,000 40.00
Fórum Castelo Branco Portugal 18,300 20.35
Industrial & Logistics Market
39
Source: Savills
Main Transactions Q1 2020
Asset Area (sq.m.) Tenant
Azambuja 6 42,062 (Confiential)
Aveiras 4 24,331 Carreras
Siemens Sintra Building 4,500 (Confidential)
INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET – Q1 2020 | PORTUGAL
55,783
46,19149,739
28,588
8,152
65,445
57,073
75,99079,061
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Total Take Up (sq.m.) and Distribution (%) by New Lease and Renewal Contracts
41.28%
58.72%
21.05%
78.95%
85.51%
14.49%
16.02%
83.98%
Renewal
New Lease
100%
64.63%
35.37%
100%
100%
100%
Source: Savills
INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET – Q1 2020 | LISBON MA
3.5
0 €
3.5
0 €
3.5
0 €
3.5
0 €
4.5
0 €
3.0
0 €
3.0
0 €
4.0
0 €
4.0
0 €
3.7
5 €
3.5
0 €
4.5
0 €
3.2
5 €
2.7
5 €
4.0
0 €
4.0
0 €
3.7
5 €
4.5
0 €
6.0
0 €
4.0
0 € 3
.00
€
4.0
0 €
4.0
0 €
3.7
5 €
4.5
0 €
6.0
0 €
4.0
0 € 3
.00
€
Carregado -Azambuja
Póvoa deSanta Iria -
Alverca
Loures MARL- Vialonga
WesternCorridor
Lisbon(Matinha -
Prior Velho)
Montijo -Alcochete
Palmela -Setúbal
Prime Rents (€/sq.m.)
2017 2018 2019 2020
10.00% 9.75%
8.00%7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 6.50% 6.25% 6.25%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020
Prime Yield
Source: Savills
INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET – Q1 2020 | LISBON MA
Take Up by Zone
16.09%
37.13%
8.52%
11.65%
2.08%
7.27%
17.25%
2018
54.01%
10.01%
18.51%
0.67%
2.60%14.19%
2019
83.98%
1.84%6.22%
3.34%4.62%
Q1 2020
Carregado – Azambuja
Axis
Póvoa de Santa Iria –
Alverca AxisLoures MARL - Vialonga Western Corridor
Lisbon (Matinha – Prior
Velho Axis)Montijo – Alcochete Axis Palmela – Setúbal Axis
Main Pipeline & Trends
The current scenario, both in Lisbon and in the rest of the
country, consists of an insufficient supply compared to the
demand, especially of modern assets with installed
technological capacity, being a market opportunity that
begins to be looked by the main players.
An example of this is Merlin Properties, which recently
started the construction of a 45,000 sq.m. warehouse in
Castanheira do Ribatejo (Carregado – Azambuja axis),
which is the largest logistic hub in the Iberian Peninsula.
This project, to be developed in different phases, should
occupy a total of 225,000 sq.m.
Along with the increase in the supply of large logistics
centers, the market lacks available assets to install last
mile distribution platforms, so the interest in more
central locations will increase the values of prime rents
in the most densely populated regions.
INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET – Q1 2020 | LISBON MA
Residential Market
RESIDENTIAL MARKET – Q1 2020 | PORTUGAL
44
The cities of Lisbon and Porto, and the
region of Algarve, registered higher average
prices comparing with Portugal as a whole;
The transactions of 2nd hand units are the
main cause of the lower average prices,
once the supply of new units is still very
scarce in the main cities and regions of the
country.
3,524(€/sq.m.)
Used
3,921(€/sq.m.)
Average
5,793(€/sq.m.)
New
1,993(€/sq.m.)
Used
2,294(€/sq.m.)
Average
3,145(€/sq.m.)
New
Lis
bo
nC
ity
Port
o C
ity
Closed Prices
1,747(€/sq.m.)
Used
1,799(€/sq.m.)
Average
2,319(€/sq.m.)
NewAlg
arv
e
1,623(€/sq.m.)
Used
1,734(€/sq.m.)
Average
2,973(€/sq.m.)
NewPo
rtu
ga
l
Source: SIR analysed by Savills Research
RESIDENTIAL MARKET – Q1 2020 | LISBON MA
45
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
20,00%
25,00%
30,00%
35,00%
40,00%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Variation Y
oY
€/s
q.m
.
Closed Prices and Variation YoY in the Cities of LMA
Q1 2019 Q1 2020 ∆
The cities of Lisbon Metropolitan
Area (LMA) witnessed a general
increase in residential closed
prices of 18.95% in Q1 2020,
comparing with the same period of
2019;
The city of Montijo stood out again
for being where the value most
increased, around 34.36%;
Lisbon, Cascais and Oeiras are
above the region's average prices.
Palmela, Barreiro and Moita are at
the bottom of the list, but both with
higher values than in the previous
year.
Source: SIR analysed by Savills Research
RESIDENTIAL MARKET – Q1 2020 | LISBON CITY
46
5,751(€/sq.m.)
Santo António
4,957(€/sq.m.)
Estrela
4,944(€/sq.m.)
Campolider
To
p 3
€/s
q.m
.
45%Campolide
28%Marvila
22%Alcântara
To
p 3
Va
ria
tio
n
-20,00%
-10,00%
0,00%
10,00%
20,00%
30,00%
40,00%
50,00%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Variation Y
oY
€/s
q.m
.
Closed Prices and Variation YoY in the Parishes of Lisbon City
Q1 2019
Q1 2020
∆
Source: SIR analysed by Savills Research
RESIDENTIAL MARKET – Q1 2020 | PORTO MA
47
The cities of Porto Metropolitan
Area (PMA) witnessed a general
increase in house prices of 14.85%
during the Q1 2020, comparing
with the same period of previous
year;
The city of Trofa stood out for
being where the average value
most increased compared, with a
variation of 34.05%;
Porto and Matosinhos are above
the region's average, with São
João da Madeira and Santa Maria
da Feira at the bottom of the list,
but all of them registered an
increase of the average prices in
the analysed period. Source: SIR analysed Savills Research
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
20,00%
25,00%
30,00%
35,00%
40,00%
€0
€500
€1.000
€1.500
€2.000
€2.500
Variation Y
oY
€/s
q.m
.
Closed Prices and Variation YoY in the Cities of PMA
Q1 2029 Q1 2020 ∆
The other cities of the PMA not included in the graphic above, did not registered any transaction in Q1 2020
RESIDENTIAL MARKET – Q1 2020 | PORTO CITY
48
2,902(€/sq.m.)
MP Cedofeita, Sto.
Ildefonso, Sé, Miragaia,
S. Nicolau and Vitória
2,866(€/sq.m.)
MP Aldoar, Foz do
Douro and Nevogilde
2,687(€/sq.m.)
MP Lordelo do Douro
and Massarelos
To
p 3
€/s
q.m
.
25%Paranhos
17%MP Aldoar, Foz do
Douro and Nevogilde
16%Campanhã
To
p 3
Va
ria
tio
n
Source: SIR analysed by Savills Research
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
20,00%
25,00%
30,00%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
MP Cedofeita, StoIldefonso, Sé,
Miragaia, S Nicolauand Vitória
MP Aldoar, Foz doDouro andNevogilde
MP Lordelo do Ouroand Massarelos
Average Paranhos Bonfim Ramalde Campanhã
Variation Y
oY
€/s
q.m
.
Closed Prices and Variation YoY in the Parishes of Porto City
Q1 2019
Q1 2020
∆
Tourism & Hospitality Market
2.381.300 4.709.300
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
7.090.700
Overnights Jan-Feb 2020
National International
1.435.900 1.577.900
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
3.013.900
Guests Jan-Feb 2020
National International
TOURISM MARKET – JANUARY TO FEBRUARY 2020 | PORTUGAL
50
Source: Travel BI analysed by Savills Research
The number of guests in the first 2 months of 2020 was
plus 14% comparing with the same period of 2019,
with an equilibrium of national and international
visitors, particularly Spanish, British and Brazilians,
who together represent 38.6% of the guests between
January and February 2020;
Foreign visitors' overnight increased 11%, while
domestic tourists registered over than a double growth
rate comparing with the international (19% and 8%
respectively).
15,6% 11,3% 11,1%
16,8% 11,7% 10,5%
+18% +10%+14%
+11% +19% +8%
TOURISM MARKET – JANUARY TO FEBRUARY 2020 | PORTUGAL
51
Source: Travel BI analysed by Savills Research
26.6
29.7
16.6
12.9
Total Hotels Local Accommodation Other alternativesegments
RevPar (€)
+4.9% +6.4% +0% +9.6%
34.90%
65.10%
Occupancy Rate (Bed)
Occupied
Vacant
47.50%
52.50%
Occupancy Rate (Room)
Occupied
Vacant
563.000 646.300
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1.209.300
Overnights Jan-Feb 2020
Nationals Internationals
388.700 314.300
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
702.900
Guests Jan-Feb 2020
Nationals Internationals
TOURISM MARKET – JANUARY TO FEBRUARY 2020 | NORTH
52
Source: Travel BI analysed by Savills Research
Spanish, Brazilian and French tourists together
account for 49.4% of the guests, and 53.6% of
overnight stays by foreign citizens in the north region,
where, unlike the national average, the majority of the
guests were domestic. However foreign citizens
continue to be responsible for most overnight stays in
the region;
On average, each tourist stayed 1.72 nights in the
northern region; 1.45 in the case of domestic
tourists, and 2.10 in the case of foreigners.
25.3% 14.4% 9.7%
22.5% 20.8% 10.3%
+14% +21%+17%
+18% +15% +21%
47.000.000 16.700.000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
63.700.000 €
Global Profits
Hotels Others
TOURISM MARKET – JANUARY TO FEBRUARY 2020 | NORTH
53
Source: Travel BI analysed by Savills Research
RevPar
Total:
€25.7
+ 8.0%
Hotels:
€30.0
+ 8.2%
+14% N.A.+16%
35.30%
64.70%
Occupancy Rate (Bed)
Occupied Vacant
45.70%
54.30%
Occupancy Rate (Room)
Occupied Vacant
578.900 1.617.700
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2.196.500
Overnights Jan-Feb 2020
Nationals Internationals
348.600 671.900
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1.020.500
Guests Jan-Feb 2020
Nationals Internationals
TOURISM MARKET – JANUARY TO FEBRUARY 2020 | LISBON MA
54
Source: Travel BI analysed by Savills Research
13.3% 12% 9.6%
15.3% 10.7% 9.8%
+15% +7%+9%
+8% +14% +6%
Brazilian, Spanish and French tourists together
represent 34.9% of the guests, and 35.8% of overnight
stays by foreign citizens in Lisbon Metropolitan Area,
where there is a lower concentration of the three main
emitting markets, synonymous of dispersion of
nationalities visiting the Lisbon area;
On average, each tourist stayed 2.20 nights in the
region of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area; 1.70 in the
case of domestic tourists, and 2.40 in the case of
foreigners.
123.800.000 14.300.000
84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100%
138.100.000
Global Profits
Hotels Others
TOURISM MARKET – JANUARY TO FEBRUARY 2020 | LISBON MA
55
Source: Travel BI analysed by Savills Research
+5% N.A.+6%
RevPar
Total:
€44.5
+ 4.1%
Hotels:
€48.6
+ 4.4%
42.60%
57.40%
Occupancy Rate (Bed)
Occupied Vacant
56.80%
43.30%
Occupancy Rate (Room)
Occupied Vacant
290.800 1.333.600
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1.418.400
Overnights Jan-Feb 2020
Nationals Internationals
127.000 241.900
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
368.900
Guests Jan-Feb 2020
Nationals Internationals
TOURISM MARKET – JANUARY TO FEBRUARY 2020 | ALGARVE
56
Source: Travel BI analysed by Savills Research
27.2% 17.6% 10.8%
29.8% 16% 13.6%
+28% +8%+15%
+10% +28% +6%
English, Spanish and German tourists together
account for 55.6% of the guests, and 59.4% of the
overnight stays by foreign citizens in the Algarve
region, where there is a large concentration of English
tourists, who alone represent 1/3 of the total number of
foreign tourists in the area;
On average, each tourist stayed 3.80 nights in the
Algarve region; 2.30 in the case of domestic
tourists, and 5.50 in the case of foreigners.
52.500.000 2.600.000
92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
55.100.000
Global Profits
Hotels Others
TOURISM MARKET – JANUARY TO FEBRUARY 2020 | ALGARVE
57
Source: Travel BI analysed by Savills Research
+9% N.A.+10%RevPar
Total:
€17.4
+ 13.0%
Hotels:
€18.0
+ 12.5%
26.50%
73.50%
Occupancy Rate (Bed)
Occupied Vacant
41.30%
58.70%
Occupancy Rate (Room)
Occupied Vacant
Thank YouFrom our team Savills Portugal
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1250-163 Lisboa
+351 21 313 9000
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4100-359 Porto
+351 22 120 1387
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