Presidential Primaries:
pt 2
Themes What makes a frontrunner (before any
votes cast)? Where do media expectations come from? Why so much volatility in GOP polls
How it works in 2012 About 2286 delegates at stake (R)
An odd sequence of events: IA (1/3), NH (1/10), SC (1/21), Fl (1/31), NV (2/4), ME (2/4*),
CO & MN (2/7), AZ & MI (2/28), WA (3/3); 10 states on 3/10, etc.
Proportional allocation of delegates if before 4/1
Results from first event have consequences for subsequent events
How it worked in 2008 About 4200 delegates at stake (D)
An odd sequence of events: IA (1/3), NH (1/8), MI (1/15), NV (1/19), SC (1/26), Fl
(1/29), 23 states on 2/5/2008 WA on 2/9 (w/ 2 other states)
2012 Nomination Schedule (R)State # delegates % of totalIA 28 1.21%NH 12* 0.52% SC 25* 1.09% NV 28 1.22%FL 50* 2.18%ME 24 1.05%CO & MN 76 3.32%AZ & MI 59* 2.58%WA (3/3) 43 1.88%March 6 438 19.20%
34% of delegates awarded by March 6 2012
2012 GOP Nomination Super Tuesday less super
AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, VA Which candidate advantaged?
PR until April 1 Harder for frontrunner to deliver ‘knockout’
blow
2008 Nomination Schedule (D)State # delegates % of totalIA 45 1.07% NV 25 .59%NH 22 .52%SC 45 1.07% FL (1/29) 185 4.40%23 states on 2/5 2075 51.36%WA on 2/9 97 2.31%LA, NE, VI (2/9) 110 2.72%
61% of delegates awarded by Feb 10 2008
Primary campaigns Concentrate resources on early states
Visits, spending, ads
Hope for momentum; force others out early
See NYT map
How it works Frontloading
Early wins for frontrunner IA, NH, done by Super Tuesday
Momentum & inevitability or.... no clear winner
Party Establishment advantage PLEOs, endorsements (168 GOP PLEOs, 7%)
Funding Most money = winner
How it was supposed to work ‘08 2008 frontrunners
H. R. Clinton led national polls Oct 06 -
Feb 08 led IA polls Aug - Dec 07
Giuliani Led national polls 2007 Romney led in IA McCain never more than
20% until Jan 13 2008
How it was supposed to work ‘12 2012 frontrunner?
Trump (26% April ‘11) Romney (25% June ) Bachman (27% IA Aug) Perry (32% Sept) Cain (26% Oct.) Gingrich (35% Dec.) Paul (25% IA Dec.) Romney (26% today)
Iowa 2012 Romney 24.5 Santorum 24.5 Paul 21.4 Gingrich 13.3 Perry 10.3 Bachman 5.0 Huntsman 0.6
What Influence of Iowa & NH? Since Carter (1976)
More visits to IA More time in IA More spending in IA More media in IA same w/ NH
Greater importance of IA? 2011 Straw poll 2007 Straw poll
Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Huckabee
Dan Quayle 1999
Why Iowa & New Hampshire Why do these states go first?
National party rule, tradition, stupidity
Why do so many candidates spend so much time there? Momentum, momentum, momentum
Remember this guy? Frontrunner in national
polls 2003 Moved to New
Hampshire 81% name ID 2nd place in early NH
polls Ignored Iowa
Remember this guy? Frontrunner in national
polls 2003 Moved to New
Hampshire 81% name ID 2nd place in early NH
polls Ignored Iowa
How about this guy? John Edwards Never considered a
frontrunner pre-’04 50% of Dems never
heard of him in 2003 “Second place” in IA
2004 (Dems don’t report votes).
Or this guy? Led some national
polls in 2003 Fundraising leader =
major expectations Third place in IA The Scream Stick a fork in it
The Scream People in NH reported seeing “scream” at
least 11 times prior to voting in their primary
Fox News version Crowd version
Opinion in Iowa, 2003-04
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How Does it Play in the Media:
Dean’s “Stunning Setback.” Iowa, 2003-04
Failed frontrunner, 2008 Mitt Romney
Spent $85K p day on TV in 2007 Spent $2.5 m on TV for IA straw poll Spent another $2.4 m on mail, other ads Won Aug ‘07 IA straw poll
Earned media, earned high expectations
2007 - 2008 GOP trends IA never gots Romney
traction nationally He lead in IA polls for
months in 2007 Lost IA to a guy w/ a
funny Youtube ad 34% H, 25% R, 13% Mc
End of Romney ‘08
Early Momentum Many campaigns believe that performance
in early events determines their fate
“Performance” in early events defined as much by reality, as by interpretation
IA, NH, and Expectations New Hampshire 1972
Ed Muskie 46% George McGovern37%
Interpretation Muskie “cried”
IA, NH, and Expectations Iowa, 1976
Jimmy Carter second at 27%; B. Bayh 13% lost to “Uncommitted” (37%)
Interprentation: “Carter Defeats Bayh 2 - 1” NYT
IA, NH, and Expectations Iowa, 1988
Dick Gephart 31% Paul Simon 27% Mike Dukakis 22%
Interpretation: Gephart & Simon locals, expected to do well Dukakis “strong showing”
IA, NH and expectations Iowa 1984, 1988, NH 1996
Hart (D) 16% in IA 1984 Robertson (R) 25% in IA 1988 (2nd) Buchanan (R) 23% in NH 1996 (2nd, Dole 26%)
Interpretation “Hart scores upset” ....32% behind Mondale, beat
McGovern “strong second in surprise” NYT
IA, NH & Expectations 1992, NH Reality
Paul Tsongas 33% Bill Clinton 24 % Bob Kerry 11 %
Interpretation Big win for Clinton, the “comeback kid” Tsongas from MA, expected to do well, Clinton expected to do
poorly
IA, NH & Expectations NH 2004
Kerry 39% Dean 26% Clark 13 % Edwards 12 %
Interpretation two candidate race: Kerry v. Edwards Dean was expected to do better, Clark won in states in
wrong time zone
Media influence & expectations Basis of initial expectations
standing in early polls fundraising
Beating early expectations Big shift in attention (deserved?)
Failing to meet expectations Big drop in attention
Media influence & expectations How is the 2012 result being interpreted by
media What were expectations?
Who beat expectations? Who gets most media bounce?
Who failed to meet expectations?
Beating expectations (Media shift) Hart 1984 37% Reagan 1976 36% Clinton 1992 35% Buchanan 28% Carter 1976 25% Huckabee 2008 21% Robertson 1988 20% Obama 2008 17%
Media Shift, 2012 after IA Romney 33% pre, 37% post Paul 20% pre, 17% post Gingrich 20% pre, 11% post Perry 9% pre, 7% post Bachman 7% pre, 3% post Santorum 9% pre, 21% post Huntsman2% pre, 2% post
Lessons from 2008 Early frontrunners not always strong
Polls capture name ID
Dem process = real danger of no clear winner
Frontloading doesn’t help frontrunners Instant fundraising now possible (Internet)
Lessons from 2008 Could Obama have won w/o Iowa?
4 days between IA and NH
Could Huckabee have been noticed w/o Iowa
Could Obama have won w/o the Internet?
Lessons from 2008 Sequence matters
IA, NH matter....too much?
The schedule matters....2012? What if NV went first? NY? WA?
What reforms?
Earliest polls for 2012 The polls: Feb, April,
Dec ‘10 Palin 25%, 15%, 17% Huck 32%, 24%, 18% Rom 21%, 20%, 19%
Looking back to 2007 Dem, Jan ‘07, 1 year
before IA Clinton 34% Obama 18% Edwards 15% Gore 10% Kerry 5% Bidden 3%
GOP, Jan ‘07 1 year before IA Giuliani 32% McCain 26% Gingrich 9% Romney 7% Pataki 3% Huckabee 1%
Reforms Regional Primaries
National primary What if everyone voted on Feb 5th 2008
Closed primaries Rush Limbaugh, Operation Chaos
Reforms Regional primary
how implement? who goes first?
Delaware Plan 10 smallest states first 10 next largest states, etc.
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