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Public Opinion and Political Socialization:

Shaping the People’s VoiceChapter 6

V. O. Key, Jr.

To speak with precision of public opinion is a task

not unlike coming to grips with the Holy Ghost.

Political Socialization:The Origins of Americans’ Opinions

Public opinion: opinions of citizens that are openly stated The Measurement of Public Opinion

Public Opinion- the opinions of private individuals become public when they are expressed publicly

Facial expression Voting Letters to the editor Lobbyist activities Public protests or demonstrations Yard signs/ bumper stickers

As a concept or force in American politics, public opinion is elusive, powerful, inexact and contradictory


How Informed Is Public Opinion? In comparison to Europeans, Americans’ awareness of

public affairs is lower Who first said “a government of the people, by the people,

for the people?”Abraham Lincoln- ¾ of Ivy League students surveyed missed this

question Civic Literacy Test- Avg. college senior scored an “F”

Political culture: the characteristic and deep-seated beliefs of a particular people about government and politics


Political socialization process Political Socialization- the process by which

individuals acquire their opinionsChildhood learning is paramountProcess is cumulative: political affiliations usually

grow firmer with age


Primary political socialization agentsFamily

Family is the strongest of all agents of socializationSchoolsChurch

Scholars have not studied the effects of religion as well as schools or family, but it is a powerful influence

most evident in social policy issues i.e. abortion, school prayer, etc.

Influence of Religion


Secondary political socialization agentsPeersMediaPolitical Institutions and Leaders

Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically

Frames of reference: reference points by which individuals evaluate issues and developments

Party identification Party identification: emotional loyalty to a political party; not formal

membership Americans = 1/3 Dem +1/3 Ind. +1/3 GOP

Party loyalties are not as stable as once was thought Partisanship based on economic circumstances and policy traditions

Affirmative Action- Dems. Less Gun Control- Repubs.

Major shifts in loyalty rare and in younger adults Partisanship can lead to selective perception

Partisanship and Issue Opinions

Party Differences

Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically

Ideological Thinking: The Outlook for Some Ideology

Consistent pattern of opinion on particular issues from a basic underlying belief

Only a minority truly understand and apply ideological frames of reference Liberals

For gov. intervention in economics; opposed to intervention in social sphere

ConservativesOpposed to gov. intervention in economics; for

intervention in social sphere Libertarians

Opposed to gov. intervention in economic & social spheres

PopulistsFor gov. intervention in economic & social spheres

Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically Group Thinking: The Outlook of Many-

people rely on groups to which they belong as reference points for opinions Religion Economic Class Region Race and Ethnicity Gender Generations and Age Crosscutting Cleavages

Gender and the Iraq Conflict

The measurement of public opinion Traditional method: election results Public opinion polls: primary method

Measure public opinion using randomly chosen population sample(s) and carefully constructed interviews

Elected officials frequently respond to polls based on random samples of constituents

Gallup- predicted every POTUS election winner since 1936 (except 1948)Dewy- Truman

Most large news organizations have their own in-house polls Samples—estimation of population’s views Accuracy of a poll—expressed by sampling error

A poll of 1000 people would have a sampling error of +/- 3%

The Measurement of Public Opinion

Problems with pollsMost relied upon way to measure public opinion,

however:Polls can be erroneous at times- 1948- Dewy- TrumanOther problems

Unrepresentative samples Increasing refusal to participate in telephone polls

Polled individuals unfamiliar with issuesPoorly trained interviewersDishonesty by respondentsPoorly worded questions and poor question orderNon-opinions

The Measurement of Public Opinion

The Influence of Public Opinion on Policy

Disagreement over how much public opinion affects policy, and how much it should affect policyPeople’s view should prevail.Some counter that elite opinion prevails.

Limits on public influenceInconsistencies in citizens’ policy preferencesCitizens’ lack of understanding of issues

Mastery of issues not necessary for opinion to be of value, but some issues require understanding

The Influence of Public Opinion on Policy

Public opinion and the boundaries of action Some policy actions outside boundaries of public acceptability Greater the level of public involvement, the more likely officials

will respond to public sentiment Even on popular issues, leaders have some discretion Leaders can influence public opinion through concerted effort