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Information Exponentials
and Partners
Future Rockdale Public Library Service:
creating different scenarios
Steve O’Connor
A view from my home…………….
...my flooded home
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After Friday….
• Outcomes from the Thursday and Friday Workshops
• Return to the Community for final input• Select Group to Finalise the Preferred Library
Scenario• Strategic Planning or the Allocation of
Resources to follow
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Aims of this Workshop
• Enable us to understand and plan multiple futures
• Blend different tools and insights into future plans and actions
• Understand client need and to incorporate this into future models
• Harness the capacity of whole organisation… users and staff
Objectives for this session
• To understand the Rockdale Public Library User and their information need
• To discuss the available multiple futures• To understand what we have achieved, what
we want to achieve and that which we have not yet begun to think of
• To begin to understand what Scenario Planning is as a tool for the modern future-orientated library
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‘Wei Ji’ CRISIS
Danger and Opportunity
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Are we on the same page??
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PerceptionMatters more than reality
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Value that is not valued
is not valuable
These three points articulated by Rick Anderson12
Patrons do not need librarians
as much as they once did
What can you see?
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What can you see?
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“People want what they want when they want it.
They don’t want something else, they don’t want less than they want,
and they certainly don’t want it
at some other time.”
Henry Forsha
Staff view of what is done well
Collections
Service
Programs
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Frontline Customer service
High calibre ServiceStaff skills are well utilised
CALD ServicesStaff skills are well utilised
Physical Collections
Up to date collections Collection
Development
Good Collections
Local History research
Wide and varied Collections
Supportive teams
Continuous improvements
Children’s Collections
Modern ‘p’ collection
New release novels
Various programs, children’s, Local history, CALD Adult
Story time
Early literacy services
Engage with customers at their level
Promote technological change to special need groups
Friendlier staffExperienced staff
Children’s activities
In-house cataloguing
Staff view of what should be done
Collections
Programs
Technology
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Frontline Customer service
Cultural varied ProgramsComputer activities at Branches
CALD ServicesResearch community needs
Demise of p newspapersMore Faster
computers E-resources collection
Downloadable ebooks
User generated content
Wide and varied Collections
More early literacy services
Continuous improvements
Children’s Collections
E Resources
Use of e books
Digital technologies
Wi Fi Access
Up to date technology
More varied programs
Remote access to ‘I’
Adult programsMore CALD services
Computer access
Availability of i equipment
More computers
Further ‘disruptions’
E books
Staff view of what should be done 2
Collaboration
Facilities
Services
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Catalogue in community languages
More Shelving /FurnitureMore study room
CALD ServicesLack of community space
Liaise with other departmentsWork with other
Council Libraries Engagement with customers
Collections distributions
Population changes
Internet power
Appropriate space
Continuous improvements
Children’s Collections
Collaboration
New release novels
Tutoring Homework assistance
IT Training
Even more Helpful services
Meeting rooms!!!
Helping unemployed
Areas for study/ PCs so on Modern Study spaces
New emerging technologies
More Promotion / MarketingWeb site marketing
Promote databases
Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November,
201120
What is the Library …..?
• What is the Library doing well?
• What does it need to do better??
• THREE OF EACH please
Changing the mind-set
• Scenario Planning as a process, but not a solution
• Scenarios are a form of engagement in the solution
• Plan from the Future rather than in the present
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What are the influences?
• What is the perception?• Is the current view of the ‘Library’
tired or … expected?• Are there too many clichés or ideas
on library and content futures not thought through?
• Is the environment requiring evidence-based solutions?
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The cool eye of the Future• ‘Future’ is a very real force in our lives• We do not know what the future
holds• We use the term very loosely and vaguely• Can be intimidated by the future, or the absence of certainty• Paths to certainty are crucial• The Futures is deep in the EYE…
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Ordered Futures
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Chaos
The Rear vision view….• We can only judge how far we have come by
looking backwards• We can only understand our path to the future
with a ‘rear vision mirror’
Photo credit: David Hobbs 28
The path to the present
is littered with choices
The Future Is Not Linear….
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ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
NOW
DECISION POINTS
SCENARIO PATH
OPTIONS
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Extinction Summary
2013 Getting Lost
2018 Libraries Blackberries Video rental stores
2020 Copyright
2025 Desktop Computers Blogging
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Disrupted models
• IBM Mainframe disrupted by Personal Computer
• Diaries… Paper disrupted by PDA• Diaries, Contacts disrupted by PDA, then Mobile
phone• Nokia mobile phone disrupted by multi-
functioned iPhone, HTA etc• Kodak industries disrupted by Digital
technologiesSteve O'Connor Leadership Future
Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011
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Five Principles of Disruption
*M arket re se arch an d p lan n in g go o d fo r su stain in g te ch n o lo gie s
1. Companies depend on customers and investors for resources*Do n
2. Small markets do not solve growthneeds of large companies
3. Markets that do not exist cannot be analysed
Five Principles ……..
4. Organisation’s capabilities define its disabilities
*Capability in processes and values…work against organisation implementing change
*Technology improvement provides greater performance than market can absorb
5. Technology supply may not equal market demand
Has the Library model been disrupted?
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EXERCISE
• Identify examples of potential disruptions:
– Could affect our general lives
– Could affect our new future library:
• Should be within 3 year time-frame
• What does the general populace say about Libraries, their present and future purpose?
• What do the those responsible for the library say?– Funder?– Governing body such as a Council?– Connections to other cultural bodies?
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Which Lane is your Library wanting to be in?
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Build a picture
• What is the imaginative story we want to tell folk?
• This is a story of why we need a new or revitalised Library
• We will do the WHAT (i.e. design and features ) in the next session
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What kinds of data?
• What kinds of data do we have?
• What kinds of data explain the future needs??
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More about …..
• Insiders and Outsiders• Over time most of us become Insiders as we
master our discipline• InnoCentive illustrates the powerof Outsiders• We need to be Outsiders• Outsiders do not need to see the detailed environment but can see the whole
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Recap
• Societal trends affecting Libraries– Disrupted library models
• Kind of Library?– Impact of digital?– Partners?
• Data?– What is it telling you?
• Collections?
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Choices
• Many decision points• Better to choose rather than having the future
happen to you• So how is it best to inform the decision points?• Engagement in the need equation as well as the
choices?• What are the best choices which you have
recognised in your own career?• It is your choice
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EXERCISE
• Imagine what your library was like in 2002, 2007?
• What were some of the characteristics of the organisation then?
• What are the three main forces the Library was doing well?
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“ You can’t stop change from coming… you can only usher it in and work out the terms. If you are smart and a little lucky, you can make it your friend”
Barrack Obama
Time Nov 17, 2008: 25
Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November,
201148
Path tunnel gets narrower• As we look forwards the definition in the
distance becomes very indistinct• The wider environment in the distance; the
spaces to each side cannot be seen• It is only as we approach that point, do we gain greater clarity• So ‘seeing’ the future is difficult and predictability is not easily found
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What are Scenarios?
• The Long View• Outside-in thinking• Multiple Perspectives
• Allow ourselves time to come to a new view, multiple views
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What is Scenario Planning?
• Process allows options to remain ‘in consideration’
• Allowing all ideas to come to the fore• Recognising that we donot have one future, butmany• How many scenarios?
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Imagination and Stories
• Strategic Planning is an important process but effectively it concerns the allocation of resources
• Scenario Planning seeks to use the imagination to conjure up new , different options
• Imagination needs to be strengthened so that improbable ideas, impractical ideas are not dismissed
• Imagination liberates us from past thinking
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53The-Library-of-the-Future-Is-web (CC) by Calgary New Central Library
54ALA 2011 Confronting the Future
55http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/page/scenarios-2050-0
Scenarios for 2050
Creativity
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Consider…..
“Creativity is the residue of time wasted”
Albert Einstein
“Always carry a light globe”
Bob Dylan
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Milton Glaser, iconic New York designer
Creativity is a verb
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More about …..• Insiders and Outsiders• Over time most of us become Insiders as we
master our discipline• InnoCentive illustrates the power of Outsiders• We need to be Outsiders• Outsiders do not need to see the detailed environment but can see the whole
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One sphere to another..
• Right Brain Hemisphere allows us to see the whole• It enables us to find connections between seemingly
unconnected things• The Forest ( Right) and the trees (Left)• Prefrontal cortex helps focus attention on the task at
hand• Understanding some brain research assists in
understanding the the creative process• Blue helps create; Red spells Danger: Yellow is
uncomfortable61
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Go Park your Future elsewhere
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Research
Different Scenarios CommunityYour
Preferred Library Future
Stories
EXERCISE
• We imagined what your library was like in 2003, 2008?
• How have the characteristics of the organisation changed since then?
• What are the forces will you have to deal with in the next three years?
Publishers
• Digital 1990+• Elsevier( 1300 titles) and major publishers
done retrospective collections• Taken over archiving role .. Implications??• Changing copyright / licensing /ownership
arrangements
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Professional Publishing and Information Universe
(a)
STM
Legal & Tax
Financial
B2B
Education
Media/Marketing
Other
Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090(a) Combined KAP/Springer entity.
Total 2002 Sales (€ in m)
Some Facts
• Book Publishing in 1963 worth US$1.68 billion• In 2008 it was worth US$ 40.3 billion• Science publishing US$ 9.4 billion in 2011• Science published 1.8 million English articles
at US$5,000 per article in 2011• Estimated that OA average cost of US$660 per
article
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Cell Reports costs US$5,000 per article whereas Public Library of Science PLoS, costs US$1,350
PeerJ and BioMed Central are other OA Journals
Industry profit margins are 20% - 30%.
Average cost per article US$3,500 to US$4,000
Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November,
201170
A Truly Global Industry
Reed Elsevier Wolters Kluwer
Pearson
64%28%
8%
46%49%
5%
US
19%
8%
73%
Europe% of Revenues Originating from: Rest of the World
VNU
36%
11%
53%(a)
(a) Includes Canada.
Published Output Held
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 Percentage of Australian holdings of English language monographs published overseas
Year
% h
eld
Long Tail
Life Cycle
020406080100120
Period
Use
Change in archival role……
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MOOC
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James Canton http://www.globalfuturist.com
What is happening to Content?
• Narrowing of the ownership of major publishing houses• Move to sell directly to user and ignoring site licenses• Move to digital delivery
– E-books with many different models; limiting access and retention
– Will e-books be broken down into smaller digital objects?– E-books and mobile delivery – Learning objects and the development of MOOC’s
• Will Open Access and Institutional Repositories thrive?
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Growth of Digital…..
1 2 3 4 50%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Information Delivered to Library’s Clients
Web
Digital
Period
Growth of Digital….
1 2 3 4 50%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Information Delivered to Library’s Clients
Web Digital
Year
EXERCISE
• What is your prediction of the content mix NOW and in 3 years time?
NOW 3 YEARS
• Web % %• Digital % %• Print % %
Growth of Digital….
1 2 3 4 50%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Information Delivered to Library’s Clients
Web Digital
Increased Relevance
“Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services.All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “
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Increased Relevance
“Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services.All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “
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Increased Relevance
“Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services.All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “
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Increased Relevance
“Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services.All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “
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Scenarios can explore issues simply
“ ……..The skill set needed by library staff is changing rapidly although there is no funding for staff development or retooling of staff skills. With the emphasis on virtual services, the library is depending more on volunteers to supplement the limited staff who don’t have the requisite technical expertise. An enthusiastic group of Generation Y and younger users is helping the library in its move into the virtual arena by contributing to tagging and other web 2.0 efforts.
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What is ‘Inevitability’?• There is risk in disruption• What is a risk?• Risk is not Failure• What is the level of probability of failure?• Engagement with Risk in a disrupted environment is a crucial strategy
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“If you want to succeed, double your failure rate”
Thomas J Watson
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www.informationexponentials.com
Development of scenarios
WITHINPARADIGMSTRATEGIES
PARADIGMCHALLENGING
STRATEGIES
MINDLESSACTION FUTURES TRAP
WEAK
WEAK
STRONG
STRONG
FUTURE FOCUS
STRATEGICTHINKING
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Research
Different Scenarios CommunityYour
Preferred Library Future
Stories
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Publishing cycle
USER as AUTHOR
PUBLISHERUSER as READER
LIBRARIAN as FUNDER
Publishing cycle
USER as AUTHOR
PUBLISHERUSER as READER
LIBRARIAN as FUNDER
Intellectual Property Rights
Publishing cycle
USER as AUTHOR
PUBLISHERUSER as READER
LIBRARIAN as FUNDER
Intellectual Property Rights
$$$
Publishing cycle
USER as AUTHOR
PUBLISHERUSER as READER
LIBRARIAN as FUNDER as PUBLISHER
Intellectual Property Rights
$$$
IMPACT OF OPEN ACCESS
At the Crossroads…
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‘Forces’ exercise can show evidence of Scenarios
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AUTO INTER-LOCKING
NONE COMPLETE
COMPLETE
NONE
OUTSOURCING
NOW 3 YEARS
Auto-Inter Lending
AUTO INTER-LOCKING
NONE COMPLETE
COMPLETE
NONE
OUTSOURCING
NOW 3 YEARS
THE ANYWHERE LIBRARY
Auto-Inter Lending
AUTO INTER-LOCKING
NONE COMPLETE
COMPLETE
NONE
OUTSOURCING
NOW 3 YEARS
THE ANYWHERE LIBRARY
NOT ENOUGH TO GO AROUND
Auto-Inter Lending
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What have we learnt ?
• The Future isn’t what it used to be• The Future can be what you want it to be
• Techniques for developing Business Scenarios– Funding models– Service capability– Skill development ……and planning
Think in terms of…
• Scenarios create new stories• What contrasting forces will lead to a break
through?– Relevance /irrelevance– New Service/ No service– New approach/ same-old-same old– More space/ less space– More budget/less budget
• Description of each created quadrant?111
Worse case scenarios
• If we are looking for better, what could be worse, far worse?
• Unforeseen changes in support/regulation/parent organisation?
• Unforeseen publisher vendor mergers or new technologies?
• Elections?• Financial disasters?• Earthquakes?
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How many futures?
• There are any number of Futures• Incremental approach
– Alternative 1– Official Future– Alternative 2
• Scaled Approach– Conservative– Modest– Challenging
• A Preferred Scenario• Preferred Scenario creates the drive for the Strategic Planning
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Increased Relevance
“Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services.All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “
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Plan not for tomorrow
• What should the future look like in the 2017?
• Start in 2013 and then work toward it
• Spend time getting accepted your Preferred Library Scenario
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Avoid Group Thinking
• Conformity to norm thinking will limit opportunities• Do not just accept stories about library• Open up and always encourage different thinking• Think about what is being proposed and encourage
an environment of thoughtful, questioning dissent• Research outside this discipline
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Do not let the Future happen to you.
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Exercise
• Create three Scenarios
• Give each of them an imaginative NAME
• DESCRIBE each of them in 6 or 7 Dot points
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Three Scenarios
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Style of Story
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The Learning Hub“ The Library in 2011 continues to be located on a land-locked campus, in the middle of one of the most densely populated parts of the world, but is now everywhere else at the same time. Its strong reputation for being busy is still true but it has successfully fused the information and study worlds; fused the physical and digital into one; fused locally produced and the commercially produced information for the benefit of the community. This is a seamless world of quality information from the web, large sets of digital books and journals as well as great collections of books. The information is now even more digital and wherever possible print materials are delivered digitally. This is what is now called the LEARNING HUB a more comfortable and dynamic learning environment . The Library has focused its services more on outreach than previously. In reaching out it is both visiting the community wherever it is and also bringing more of that same community to the re-vitalised Library building. In this future, the traditional functions of the Library have been re-defined and re-focused to facilitate the growth of knowledge.”
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Emerging Trends in the
BroaderEnvironment
Exercise
• Create three Scenarios
• Give each of them an imaginative NAME
• DESCRIBE each of them in 6 or 7 Dot points
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Possibilities abound……those owned by our Clients will always be
richer
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www.informationexponentials.com
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