September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
1
Land Use-Transportation Land Use-Transportation Interaction, Urban Activity Interaction, Urban Activity
System AnalysisSystem Analysis
Concepts & Methods
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
2
Land Use: Transportation Interaction, Urban Activity System Analysis
Change in land
use Change in trip
generation
Change in travel needs
(demand)Change in
transportation supply (added
services, facilities)
Change in accessibility
Change (increase) in land values
Transportation shapes land use
Transportation serves land use
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
3
Interrelationship of:
Land Use
Transportation
Environment
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Land Use, Transportation & Environment
Socio-Economic Outlook
Land Use Module
Transport Module
Economic, Energy, Environmental Impact
Module (s)
Source: Bureau of Transport & Communications Economics, “Modelling the land use-transport-environment interaction”, occasional paper 107, Australian Government Publishing Services, Canberra (1993).
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Change in Land Use (over Time)
Zones
Urban area
(in residential units, commercial land use, industrial land use, retail land use, etc.)
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Land Use Models
These determine land use and estimate (forecast) change in land use ( land use).
Examples of Land Use:
– Increase in residential units– Increase in commercial land use – Increase in industrial land use– Increase in retail land use
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Land Use Models
Explain/Predict:
in land use = function of:
• Accessibility to employment
• Land value
• % of available vacant land in a zone
• Transit accessibility
• Quality of water & sewer services
• Intensity of land use
• Measures of zone size
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Land Use Model - cont’d
in land use = function of:• Net density of development in the base
year• Employment by land use type• Time & distance to highest valued land
in the study area• Degree pf zoning protection• Etc.
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Traffic Flow
Q = qm
m
Q = total link traffic flow
qm = link traffic flow of vehicle type m
Network Link
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Traffic Impacts: Fuel Consumption & Emissions
E (x) = Em(X) qm
m
Em(x) = mean rate of pollutant emission or fuel consumption
X (Avg. travel time per unit distance on a link (min/km))
X (Avg. speed (km/h)
Em (X)
(Fuel)
Em (X)(Fuel)
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Land Use -- Transportation System-- Environment
Land Use Plan
Transportation System Performance (v/c ratios, etc.)
Calculate Fuel Consumption
Calculate Emissions
Calculate Noise Levels
v = volume c = capacity
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Land Use -- Transportation System-- Environment -- cont’d
Urban Traffic Congestion
Energy Consumption
Emissions
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Density Gradient
Jobs
Population
CBD Distance from CBD
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Bid RentBid Rent ($/sq m)
CBD Distance
Pressure for Growth
Demand for Land
Land Use Pattern
Bid Rent
Location of activities
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Transportation as a Major Land Use
100
80
60
40
20
0
Open space
Streets & highways
Residential
ManufacturePublic bldgs
Commercial
0
Distance from city centre
8 kms 16 kms
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Development Concepts
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Urban Spatial Structure
• Note: LRT not shown
Hull CBD
Green BeltWest Urban Community
South Urban Community
East Urban Community
#17
#417OTTAWA
#416
Multinucleated Urban Region
Major Highway Transitway Central Business District
CBD
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Land Use Estimation Procedure
Available information
ProcedureFuture
estimate
Existing Land Use data
Unusable vacant land
Unusable land
Re-development plans
Land useUsable
vacant landUsed land
Future population and economic
forecast (s)
Total future land
requirements
Allocate new or additional
land uses
Vacant land
Zoning and community plans
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Demand for Land UseSpace Requirements: Dimensioning the Land Use Design
Four Step Pattern:
1. Review existing density characteristics and variation in these densities (by location such as central or suburban areas, by age of development, or by development type).
2. Obtain forecasts of or plans for future growth or decline of the land use category in question.– Projected population level => used as an index for
residential space needs– Future employment estimates => lead to non-residential
land use needs
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Demand for Land Use – cont’d3. Derive future space standards or projected densities based on a
consideration of:– Existing densities– Local, regional and national trends– Planning principles and standards derived from goals,
objectives, criteria.
Space Standards are expressed as:– Sq.m/employee– Sq.m/household or D.U. (expressed for each of several types
of dwellings)– Sq.m of retail space/$ of sales volume or per consumer in the
trade area and so on.
For schools, shopping centres, industrial parks, and the like, the planner would specify standards for min. site size and the number of facilities per 1000 population.
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Demand for Land Use – cont’d
4. Apply standards to the projected levels of growth or decline.
Total space = (growth or decline in activity) x (unit requirement space requirement standard)
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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The Land Use-Transportation Model
Population model Economic model
Land use model
Trip generation model
Trip distribution model
Modal split model
Traffic assignment
Model evaluation
Calibration Phase on Base Yr. Data
Origin destination data socio-economic data
Transportation system characteristics
Cont’d
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Land Use-Transportation Model -- cont’d
Land use projection
Trip generation
Trip distribution
Modal split
Assignment
Model evaluation
System evaluation
Re-design future system
Population projection Economic projections Forecast Phase on Design Yr. Data
Transportation system specification
Future network
Choice
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Land Use Allocation
• Land is allocated among alternative uses mainly in private markets with some public regulations.
• This results in cities developing mainly from location decisions by a large number of private developers and buyers
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Land Use Models
• Land use models can serve 2 purposes:– Forecast total activities of an urban area– Allocate these activities among a
predetermined set of sub-areas (zones)
• Over the years, numerous models have been developed and used
• Here, the example of accessibility is discussed
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Model to Allocate Land Use
Given :
• Gt =Total Growth in population (to be allocated to various zones)
j j
jjj
i
a zone
Gt
Gi Gi Gi
zone i i=1
zone i i=2
zone i i=3
Interzonal interaction
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Model to Allocate Land Use – cont’d
Gi = population allocated to zone iGi (Total accessibility of zone i) x (Available vacant
land in zone i) Ai x Li
Ai = Aij
Aij = Ej
dij
Ai = Ej/dijb
b
j
j
ij
j j
j
Note:
Ai Ej
j
Ai 1
j dijb
Find:
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Model to Allocate Land Use – cont’d
Where, Ej = Total employment in zone j (an indicator of activity size)dij = distance between i & j (travel time can be used as well)b = an exponentLi = available vacant land in zone i (an indicator of holding capacity of zone i)
Now,Gi = Gt AiLi = Gt Di
AiLi Di
Where, Di is the development potential of zone i = Ai x Li
Note: If Ai = 0, Di becomes zeroIf Li = 0, Di becomes zero- The higher the accessibility of a zone vis-à-vis other competing zone, the higher the share out of total population- The higher the available vacant land, the higher the share
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Example 1
A small 3-zone city has the following characteristics:
ZoneTotal Existing
PopulationAvailable vacant land (hectares)
1 2000 100
2 1000 200
3 3000 300
Total 6000 600
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Example – cont’d
From i\To j 1 2 3
1 2 6 8
2 6 3 5
3 8 5 4
Travel time (in minutes) are given below:
An exponent of 2 can be assumed based on work done with other cities of the same size (i.e. b = 2)
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Example – cont’d
If the population of this city is expected to rise to 8000 persons, how will the population be distributed by zone? (i.e. increase in population = 2000). Assume that the total employment in each zone is proportional to the total existing population in that zone.
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Solution
Zone 1 2 3 Aij= Ai
1 Aij = 2000/22 = 500
1000/62 = 28 3000/82 = 47 575
2 2000/62 = 56 =111 = 120 287
3 2000/82 = 31 =40 =188 259
j
Zone Ai Li Di
1 575 100 57,500
2 287 200 57,400
3 259 300 77,700
Total Di =192,600
Multiply Ai by Li:
Calculate Aij & Ai. Use (pop)j as a proxy for Ej.
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Solution – cont’dCalculate the relative development potential of each zone.
Zone Di Di /Di Gi (Increment)
1 57,500 0.299 598
2 57,400 0.298 596
3 77,700 0.403 806
Total 192,600 1.000 2000
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Example 2A city consists of 4 zones of which zone 1 is a work location and three other zones are home places. The zones have the following characteristics
Zone # of jobs PopulationVacant land (hectares)
1 5000 Nil Nil
2 - 2500 100
3 - 2500 200
4 - 5000 20
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Example – cont’d
i \
j1 2 3 4
1 9
2 26 9
3 26 36 9
4 16 26 31 9
A travel time matrix (minutes) for the city is as follows:
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Example – cont’d
The forecast for the city for 2015 is that the total population will increase by 2000 persons, and that 1000 more jobs will be added. (assume that the new jobs do not require additional land).
An empirical study of this city showed that development took place (at zone level) in proportion to accessibility raised to 2.7 power and the land area available.
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Example – cont’d
Also, travel time exponent was found to be 2.2. That is:Gi = (Gt) LiAi
2.7
LiAi2.7
iEj /Tij2.2)
What zone will grow and by how much, if:(a) Travel times remain constant, and all new jobs go to zone
1.(b) An improved transportation system reduces travel time by
5 minutes, and all new jobs go to zone 1.
i
j
j
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Solution
i AiEj /Tij2.2) for zone 1 being j Ai
1 6000 / (9)2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 125.7 = 47.73
2 6000 / (26)2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 1297 4.63
3 6000 / (26)2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 1297 = 4.63
4 6000 / (16)2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 445.72 = 13.46
Step1: Calculate Ai’s .
(Note: Total jobs = 5000+1000 =6000)
No jobs in zones 2 to 4
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Solution – cont’d
Step 2: Calculate Li (Ai) 2.7 / LiAi2.7
i
i Ai2.7 Li(Ai)2.7 Li(Ai)2.7/LiAi
2.7
1 34,098.63 0 0
2 62.67 6.267 0.08
3 62.67 12,534 0.17
4 1,117.95 55,897.5 0.75
=74,698.5 1.00
i
Note: Li is available vacant land
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Solution – cont’d
Step 3: Calculate Gi
i Gi = (Gtotal) ( Li(Ai)2.7/LiAi2.7 )
2 2000 X 0.08 =160
3 2000 X 0.17 = 340
4 2000 X 0.75 = 1500
2000
Are holding capacities violated?
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Solution – cont’d
b) New travel time matrix
i \
j1 2 3 4
1 4
2 21 4
3 21 31 4
4 11 21 26 4
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Solution – cont’d
Calculate Ai’s: Ai = (Ei / Tij2.2) for zone 1 being j
j
Note: Total jobs in zone 1 (in the future = 5000+ 1000 = 6000)
iAij
Aij = 1 j = 2 j = 3 j = 4
1 6000 / (4)2.2 0 0 0 284.23
2 6000 / (21)2.2 0 0 0 7.40
3 6000 / (21)2.2 0 0 0 7.40
4 6000 / (11)2.2 0 0 0 30.70
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Solution – cont’d
i Ai2.7 Li(Ai)2.7 Li(Ai)2.7/LiAi
2.7
14.216
million0 0
2 222.29 22,229 0.04
3 222.29 44,459 0.08
4 10357.95 517,898 0.88
=584,586 1.00
Calculate Li (Ai)2.7 = LiAij2.7
i
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Solution – cont’d
Calculate Gi
i Gi = (Gtotal) ( Li(Ai)2.7/LiAi2.7 )
2 2000 X 0.04 =80
3 2000 X 0.08 = 160
4 2000 X 0.88 = 1760
2000
Are holding capacities violated?
i
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Comments
Without transportation improvement:
Li = 100 hectareLi = 200 hectare
Li = 50 hectare
P = 160 personsP = 340 persons
P = 1500 persons
2
13
416 min
26 min26 min
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Comments – cont’d
With transportation improvement:
2
13
411 min
21 min21 min
P =80
P =160
P =1760
In relative terms zone 4 becomes more attractive for development
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Comments – cont’d
If zone 1 has 20 Hectares that are vacant:
i Gi
1 2000 X 0.99 =1980
2 2000 X 0.0015 = 3
3 2000 X 0.0025 =5
4 2000 X 0.006 = 12
2000
Almost all new growth in population
Holding capacity?
September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University
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Location of Businesses: Accessibility FunctionAssumptions: New businesses consider the
options available.
Businesses do not move or fail
Best location: a function of accessibility to population (i.e., markets, work force).Aj
p = Pi e-cij
where, Ajp : is accessibility to population (for a
business located in zone jPi : is population of zone i
all i ji
i
ii
i