September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 1 Land Use-Transportation Interaction, Urban Activity System Analysis Concepts & Methods

September 2005 Urban Planning Carleton University

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Land Use-Transportation Land Use-Transportation Interaction, Urban Activity Interaction, Urban Activity

System AnalysisSystem Analysis

Concepts & Methods


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Land Use: Transportation Interaction, Urban Activity System Analysis

Change in land

use Change in trip

generation

Change in travel needs

(demand)Change in

transportation supply (added

services, facilities)

Change in accessibility

Change (increase) in land values

Transportation shapes land use

Transportation serves land use


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Interrelationship of:

Land Use

Transportation

Environment


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Land Use, Transportation & Environment

Socio-Economic Outlook

Land Use Module

Transport Module

Economic, Energy, Environmental Impact

Module (s)

Source: Bureau of Transport & Communications Economics, “Modelling the land use-transport-environment interaction”, occasional paper 107, Australian Government Publishing Services, Canberra (1993).


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Change in Land Use (over Time)

Zones

Urban area

(in residential units, commercial land use, industrial land use, retail land use, etc.)


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Land Use Models

These determine land use and estimate (forecast) change in land use ( land use).

Examples of Land Use:

– Increase in residential units– Increase in commercial land use – Increase in industrial land use– Increase in retail land use


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Land Use Models

Explain/Predict:

in land use = function of:

• Accessibility to employment

• Land value

• % of available vacant land in a zone

• Transit accessibility

• Quality of water & sewer services

• Intensity of land use

• Measures of zone size


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Land Use Model - cont’d

in land use = function of:• Net density of development in the base

year• Employment by land use type• Time & distance to highest valued land

in the study area• Degree pf zoning protection• Etc.


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Traffic Flow

Q = qm

m

Q = total link traffic flow

qm = link traffic flow of vehicle type m

Network Link


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Traffic Impacts: Fuel Consumption & Emissions

E (x) = Em(X) qm

m

Em(x) = mean rate of pollutant emission or fuel consumption

X (Avg. travel time per unit distance on a link (min/km))

X (Avg. speed (km/h)

Em (X)

(Fuel)

Em (X)(Fuel)


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Land Use -- Transportation System-- Environment

Land Use Plan

Transportation System Performance (v/c ratios, etc.)

Calculate Fuel Consumption

Calculate Emissions

Calculate Noise Levels

v = volume c = capacity


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Land Use -- Transportation System-- Environment -- cont’d

Urban Traffic Congestion

Energy Consumption

Emissions


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Density Gradient

Jobs

Population

CBD Distance from CBD


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Bid RentBid Rent ($/sq m)

CBD Distance

Pressure for Growth

Demand for Land

Land Use Pattern

Bid Rent

Location of activities


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Transportation as a Major Land Use

100

80

60

40

20

0

Open space

Streets & highways

Residential

ManufacturePublic bldgs

Commercial

0

Distance from city centre

8 kms 16 kms


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Development Concepts


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Urban Spatial Structure

• Note: LRT not shown

Hull CBD

Green BeltWest Urban Community

South Urban Community

East Urban Community

#17

#417OTTAWA

#416

Multinucleated Urban Region

Major Highway Transitway Central Business District

CBD


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Land Use Estimation Procedure

Available information

ProcedureFuture

estimate

Existing Land Use data

Unusable vacant land

Unusable land

Re-development plans

Land useUsable

vacant landUsed land

Future population and economic

forecast (s)

Total future land

requirements

Allocate new or additional

land uses

Vacant land

Zoning and community plans


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Demand for Land UseSpace Requirements: Dimensioning the Land Use Design

Four Step Pattern:

1. Review existing density characteristics and variation in these densities (by location such as central or suburban areas, by age of development, or by development type).

2. Obtain forecasts of or plans for future growth or decline of the land use category in question.– Projected population level => used as an index for

residential space needs– Future employment estimates => lead to non-residential

land use needs


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Demand for Land Use – cont’d3. Derive future space standards or projected densities based on a

consideration of:– Existing densities– Local, regional and national trends– Planning principles and standards derived from goals,

objectives, criteria.

Space Standards are expressed as:– Sq.m/employee– Sq.m/household or D.U. (expressed for each of several types

of dwellings)– Sq.m of retail space/$ of sales volume or per consumer in the

trade area and so on.

For schools, shopping centres, industrial parks, and the like, the planner would specify standards for min. site size and the number of facilities per 1000 population.


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Demand for Land Use – cont’d

4. Apply standards to the projected levels of growth or decline.

Total space = (growth or decline in activity) x (unit requirement space requirement standard)


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The Land Use-Transportation Model

Population model Economic model

Land use model

Trip generation model

Trip distribution model

Modal split model

Traffic assignment

Model evaluation

Calibration Phase on Base Yr. Data

Origin destination data socio-economic data

Transportation system characteristics

Cont’d


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Land Use-Transportation Model -- cont’d

Land use projection

Trip generation

Trip distribution

Modal split

Assignment

Model evaluation

System evaluation

Re-design future system

Population projection Economic projections Forecast Phase on Design Yr. Data

Transportation system specification

Future network

Choice


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Land Use Allocation

• Land is allocated among alternative uses mainly in private markets with some public regulations.

• This results in cities developing mainly from location decisions by a large number of private developers and buyers


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Land Use Models

• Land use models can serve 2 purposes:– Forecast total activities of an urban area– Allocate these activities among a

predetermined set of sub-areas (zones)

• Over the years, numerous models have been developed and used

• Here, the example of accessibility is discussed


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Model to Allocate Land Use

Given :

• Gt =Total Growth in population (to be allocated to various zones)

j j

jjj

i

a zone

Gt

Gi Gi Gi

zone i i=1

zone i i=2

zone i i=3

Interzonal interaction


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Model to Allocate Land Use – cont’d

Gi = population allocated to zone iGi (Total accessibility of zone i) x (Available vacant

land in zone i) Ai x Li

Ai = Aij

Aij = Ej

dij

Ai = Ej/dijb

b

j

j

ij

j j

j

Note:

Ai Ej

j

Ai 1

j dijb

Find:


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Model to Allocate Land Use – cont’d

Where, Ej = Total employment in zone j (an indicator of activity size)dij = distance between i & j (travel time can be used as well)b = an exponentLi = available vacant land in zone i (an indicator of holding capacity of zone i)

Now,Gi = Gt AiLi = Gt Di

AiLi Di

Where, Di is the development potential of zone i = Ai x Li

Note: If Ai = 0, Di becomes zeroIf Li = 0, Di becomes zero- The higher the accessibility of a zone vis-à-vis other competing zone, the higher the share out of total population- The higher the available vacant land, the higher the share


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Example 1

A small 3-zone city has the following characteristics:

ZoneTotal Existing

PopulationAvailable vacant land (hectares)

1 2000 100

2 1000 200

3 3000 300

Total 6000 600


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Example – cont’d

From i\To j 1 2 3

1 2 6 8

2 6 3 5

3 8 5 4

Travel time (in minutes) are given below:

An exponent of 2 can be assumed based on work done with other cities of the same size (i.e. b = 2)


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If the population of this city is expected to rise to 8000 persons, how will the population be distributed by zone? (i.e. increase in population = 2000). Assume that the total employment in each zone is proportional to the total existing population in that zone.


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Solution

Zone 1 2 3 Aij= Ai

1 Aij = 2000/22 = 500

1000/62 = 28 3000/82 = 47 575

2 2000/62 = 56 =111 = 120 287

3 2000/82 = 31 =40 =188 259

j

Zone Ai Li Di

1 575 100 57,500

2 287 200 57,400

3 259 300 77,700

Total Di =192,600

Multiply Ai by Li:

Calculate Aij & Ai. Use (pop)j as a proxy for Ej.


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Solution – cont’dCalculate the relative development potential of each zone.

Zone Di Di /Di Gi (Increment)

1 57,500 0.299 598

2 57,400 0.298 596

3 77,700 0.403 806

Total 192,600 1.000 2000


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Example 2A city consists of 4 zones of which zone 1 is a work location and three other zones are home places. The zones have the following characteristics

Zone # of jobs PopulationVacant land (hectares)

1 5000 Nil Nil

2 - 2500 100

3 - 2500 200

4 - 5000 20


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i \

j1 2 3 4

1 9

2 26 9

3 26 36 9

4 16 26 31 9

A travel time matrix (minutes) for the city is as follows:


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The forecast for the city for 2015 is that the total population will increase by 2000 persons, and that 1000 more jobs will be added. (assume that the new jobs do not require additional land).

An empirical study of this city showed that development took place (at zone level) in proportion to accessibility raised to 2.7 power and the land area available.


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Also, travel time exponent was found to be 2.2. That is:Gi = (Gt) LiAi

2.7

LiAi2.7

iEj /Tij2.2)

What zone will grow and by how much, if:(a) Travel times remain constant, and all new jobs go to zone

1.(b) An improved transportation system reduces travel time by

5 minutes, and all new jobs go to zone 1.

i

j

j


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Solution

i AiEj /Tij2.2) for zone 1 being j Ai

1 6000 / (9)2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 125.7 = 47.73

2 6000 / (26)2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 1297 4.63

3 6000 / (26)2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 1297 = 4.63

4 6000 / (16)2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 445.72 = 13.46

Step1: Calculate Ai’s .

(Note: Total jobs = 5000+1000 =6000)

No jobs in zones 2 to 4


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Solution – cont’d

Step 2: Calculate Li (Ai) 2.7 / LiAi2.7

i

i Ai2.7 Li(Ai)2.7 Li(Ai)2.7/LiAi

2.7

1 34,098.63 0 0

2 62.67 6.267 0.08

3 62.67 12,534 0.17

4 1,117.95 55,897.5 0.75

=74,698.5 1.00

i

Note: Li is available vacant land


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Step 3: Calculate Gi

i Gi = (Gtotal) ( Li(Ai)2.7/LiAi2.7 )

2 2000 X 0.08 =160

3 2000 X 0.17 = 340

4 2000 X 0.75 = 1500

2000

Are holding capacities violated?


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b) New travel time matrix

i \

j1 2 3 4

1 4

2 21 4

3 21 31 4

4 11 21 26 4


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Calculate Ai’s: Ai = (Ei / Tij2.2) for zone 1 being j

j

Note: Total jobs in zone 1 (in the future = 5000+ 1000 = 6000)

iAij

Aij = 1 j = 2 j = 3 j = 4

1 6000 / (4)2.2 0 0 0 284.23

2 6000 / (21)2.2 0 0 0 7.40

3 6000 / (21)2.2 0 0 0 7.40

4 6000 / (11)2.2 0 0 0 30.70


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i Ai2.7 Li(Ai)2.7 Li(Ai)2.7/LiAi

2.7

14.216

million0 0

2 222.29 22,229 0.04

3 222.29 44,459 0.08

4 10357.95 517,898 0.88

=584,586 1.00

Calculate Li (Ai)2.7 = LiAij2.7

i


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Calculate Gi

i Gi = (Gtotal) ( Li(Ai)2.7/LiAi2.7 )

2 2000 X 0.04 =80

3 2000 X 0.08 = 160

4 2000 X 0.88 = 1760

2000

Are holding capacities violated?

i


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Comments

Without transportation improvement:

Li = 100 hectareLi = 200 hectare

Li = 50 hectare

P = 160 personsP = 340 persons

P = 1500 persons

2

13

416 min

26 min26 min


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Comments – cont’d

With transportation improvement:

2

13

411 min

21 min21 min

P =80

P =160

P =1760

In relative terms zone 4 becomes more attractive for development


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Comments – cont’d

If zone 1 has 20 Hectares that are vacant:

i Gi

1 2000 X 0.99 =1980

2 2000 X 0.0015 = 3

3 2000 X 0.0025 =5

4 2000 X 0.006 = 12

2000

Almost all new growth in population

Holding capacity?


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Location of Businesses: Accessibility FunctionAssumptions: New businesses consider the

options available.

Businesses do not move or fail

Best location: a function of accessibility to population (i.e., markets, work force).Aj

p = Pi e-cij

where, Ajp : is accessibility to population (for a

business located in zone jPi : is population of zone i

all i ji

i

ii

i

Documents

September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 1 Land Use-Transportation Interaction, Urban Activity System Analysis Concepts & Methods