Atmospheric Analytics
Michael Ferrari
CSC
Atmospheric Analytics
How has weather & climate data availability changed?
How are smart businesses are relying on, and profiting from,
the ubiquitous weather & climate data?
WCI: Technology/Methodology transfer
What is on the horizon/NASA-NCCS….?
Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Dimbokro, Cote-d’Ivoire
Mount Washington, NH
Weather Black Swans
Source: Weather Trends International
From J. Schnase, NASA
Source: Lloyds, Forecasting Risk, 2011
Source: National Center for Environmental Prediction
Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research Applications
Source: NASA Goddard Space
Flight Center, MERRA
MERRA:
Publicly available,
28 Physical Parameters
1979-present
Network Analysis – Reanalysis data application
Source: Elsner et al, Geophys. Res. Ltrs, 2009
Applying WCI to Global Food Supply & Price Risk Management
(A)
(C)
(B) (E)
(D)(A)
(E)
(D)
(C)
(B)
(F)
Food Production
Food Production
Extreme Events
(Pakistan Floods)
Food Production
Extreme Events
(Pakistan Floods)
Monsoon Activity
New Business Models will emerge
Combining Strata with Where
New Business Models will emerge
Mining Environmental Sensor Network data
Source: NSF CyberInfrastructure Report, 2003
New Business Models will emerge
Scientific Data Services:
Climate Data Service
WDGD?
Apply Climate &
Weather Informatics
to
Do Things That Matter
35/40
MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models
MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models
WCI Summary
• Applying climate indices to scenario planning is the classic case of ‘Decision Making Under Uncertainty’.
However, using a traditional forecast as an operational tool is difficult beyond a 7-10 day window (introduction
of error, etc.)
• With more data and more tools to analyze data, current climate indices can be applied, as well as new climate
indices developed (teleconnections)
• Risk Quantification becomes an operational issue as well as a financial issue
• NASA/NOAA data repositories are a wonderful testbed for the applied data scientist
• Use reanalysis information (NASA/NOAA) to monitor, and adjust, prior assumptions. Flexibility enables
robustness.
WWDD?
Thanks
• John Schnase, PhD
• Phil Webster, PhD
• Dan Walker, PhD
• Edd Dumbill
• Mac Slocum
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