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Surface Transportation BoardRETAC Meeting
Ethanol Discussion
June 12, 2008
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Historical Ethanol Demand
175215350375430
610710830845870900950
1100120013501400
110013001400147016301770
21302810
34003900
49006500
9500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
Year
Mill
ions
of g
allo
ns
2008 Projected
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Ethanol Industry Capacity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Y ear
BG
PY
Productio n Capac ity Tota l Renewable Fu els Standard R FS - E thano l
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Ethanol Modes of Transportation
• Trucks (8,000 Gallons)• Railcars (29,000 gallons)
– Single rail car– Unit Train (65, 75, or 95 railcars)– Major infrastructure build
• Barges (420,000 gallons)– 10,000 bbl capacity
• Pipeline
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100 Million Gal./ Year Plant Example
Transportation Impacts:3448 railcars of Fuel Ethanol per year
10 tank cars per day9867 railcars of Corn per year
60% by Rail, 17 railcars per day3048 railcars of DDGs per year
9 hopper cars per day
RFA7
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50-74% Penetration
Below 10% Penetration
10-50% Penetration
75-100% Penetration
Market Penetration By State(10% Ethanol Blends as Share of 2007 State Gasoline Sales)
100%
100%
95%
90%
90%
85%
80%
80%
80%75%
75%75%
70%
70%
65%
60%
60%
60%
55%
55%
55%
50%
55%
45%
42%
40%
40%
40%
25%
20%
9%
10%
9.5%
8%
7%
7%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
1%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
(6% blends)
Alaska – 10%Hawaii – 95%
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Ethanol Demand by PADD
2,400
2,800
1,200
200
1,400
5,300
4,200
2,100
500
2,500
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
PADD I (East Coast) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rocky Mountain) PADD V (West Coast)
MM
Gal
lons
Current Ethanol Demand Projected Ethanol Demand 10%
Ethanol ProductionPADD II 7.9 MM
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Ethanol Railcar Shipments• 2004: 65,372 Loads• 2005: 72,677 Loads• 2006: 116,224 Loads
Ethanol Industry Projection• 2007: 156,900 est. Loads
– (6.5 BGY est. 70% Rail with 29,000 gal/ car)
• 2008: 217,250 est. Loads– (9.0 BGY est. 70% Rail with 29,000 gal/ car)
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Ethanol Logistics• Unit Train Facilities
– Lomita (Carson), CA, Sewaren, NJ,Albany, NY, Linden, NY, Dallas, TX,Providence, RI
• Additional Train Facilities being added• Ethanol Origination Facilities
– Manley Terminal
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June 2008