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Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2006

SCF Associates Ltd

All rights reserved No reproduction without [email protected]

Competitiveness in Emerging Competitiveness in Emerging Robot Technologies Robot Technologies

(CEROBOT)(CEROBOT)The opportunities in safety and The opportunities in safety and

robots for SMEsrobots for SMEs

Simon ForgeColin Blackman

TECHNO economic ANALYSIS

mailto:[email protected]

Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved 2010 2

Sense•Eg, Detect presence of organs, using vision system with pattern recognition, or

•Detect obstacle, or threat with lidar, or

•Detect bone tissue, not soft tissue with sonar, or

•And

•Detect/ confirm position of ‘limbs’ or end effectors, using stepper motor feedback

Think•Warn and/or act immediately

•Eg, Supply energy to actuators and tools for arm, or

•Flex leg muscles for walking, or

•Give haptic feedback to control arm for surgeon for remote surgery

•Eg, Execute PC-controller programme for this trigger input, with stored programme, or

•Process inputs in a decision and planning module ( eg with simple AI such as a neural network) or

•Obey instructions previously given verbally by a human, interpreted and stored in run-time memory

Act

Basic robot functions - sense, ‘think’ and act


HighHighLowNanorobotics

MedMedLowSwarms and co-operating robot teams

LowLow/MedMandatoryPower suppliesMedMedMedGripping/placingMed/HighMedLowBio-mimetic movement MediumMediumMediumMobility & motionMedMedMed/highPositioning systemsMed/HighMedHighVision comprehension systems HighMed/highLowCognitive and learning systemsMediumMed/highHigh /mandatorySystem integrationHighHighHighHuman interactionHighHighHighSensor fusion

Complexity (as barrier to entry)

Added value

Likelihood of use in applications

Key robotics technologies

Future development directions of robots lie with 12 key technology areas


Future technological developmentFurther market expansion requires developments in certain key areas:

•Biggest challenge - software- must be robust and open (eco-system), self-healing autonomic, standard across robots and tasks, flexible for new problems and sensors not yet imagined, with SDKs - note mainstream software industry entering

•Power supplies – better power/weight/volume for energy density is for longer autonomy, critical for wider use of mobile robots

•Interfacing with sophisticated sensors in standard ways – connecting up a vision system is not straightforward today - lack of international open standards

•Industry standards for the more sophisticated sensors and process tools will evolve over the next decade, needed to accelerate systems integration and reduce the cost as special adaptors in software and hardware may be avoided, making the integration task easier and cheaper, and so open up the whole robotics field.

•Cognitive processing for safety (eg Asimov’s three laws enacted) and far more capability – needs more intelligent capacity + cognitive processing eg for job learning by demo, human interfacing, scene recognition, etc.

•Education in robotics – if the EU is to compete globally it needs better degree and vocational level education in systems integration in robotics, as much as the robots themselves. Current initiatives are national, eg in Italy - EU level also needed.


Likely timescale for innovation for certain advances

LaboratoryLaboratoryLaboratoryIroning robot – combining unstructured shape recognition, textile understanding, sensitive tactile manipulation, precision

Developed for limited production for service robots but high cost

Pilot projects and some special market segments for limited roles

Laboratory – collision free movements

Humanoids – with full biomimetic functions & cognitive capability for useful interaction, domestic or industrial

Complex teaching robots in full mass production

Simple, limited education robots in limited production

Toys and model kits in mass production, simple forms

Expressive robotics – teaching and entertainment Robots

Pilot scale application in social situations

Laboratory and pilotsLaboratory and pilotsHigher emotional intelligence for human interaction – humanoids with empathy, facial expressions, etc

Developed for limited production for service robots but high cost

Limited use in pilot projects

LaboratoryHuman interaction in adaptive manner, speech, gestures etc for collaboration and co-working

Developed for production in high end machines

Pilot scale projectsLaboratory, links to CYC and prior knowledge bases

Higher cognitive ability – common sense ie human real world logic, eg to understand and obey the 3 laws of robotics with respect to humans

Reliable vocabulary for multiple familiar speakers with complex sentences using human style language learning for responses, in high noise environments – lip reading

Reliable 300 word vocab., for known speakers, simple sentences, semi-random response, some background noise

Very simple phrases and 100 word vocab., known speakers, specific situations (strongly typed, low background noise)

Natural language processing for human interaction - interface for instruction, replaces programming, with usefully low error rate (< 0.2%)

20 years10 years5 yearsTime scale

Innovation


How future robots will fit in : application scenarios and roles for robots vs sectors

XXXXSpace

XXXXSecurity

XXXXDomestic service

XXXXXXProfessional service

XXXIndustrial

Edutainment robots

Robots for exploration & inspection

Robots for surveillance & intervention

Logistics robots

Robotic co-workers

Robotic workers

Roles

Sectors

•Food processing•Hazardous environments/space•Security/defence•Agriculture•Medical and care services for all ages•Professional service and edutainment•Domestic service •Toys•Transport•Future industrial manufacturing

Future applications for robots will expand use and take-up

Source : EUROP, Strategic Research Agenda, 2009

Futuregrowthsectors


Estimated worldwide yearly shipments of industrial robots (‘000s)

1991 2000 2008

140

100

40

0

Source: World Robotics 2009

State of the global robotics market (2005)

The market for robotics


Industrial robots are used most by the auto industry with Asia as the largest market

Units

Estimated yearly supply of industrial robots by regions 2005 -2007

Industrial robots by industry sector and application

Source: IEEE Spectrum, 2009, http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/industrial-robots/the-rise-of-the-machines

Source: World Robotics 2008

Asia

Europe

Americas

200720062005

0 50,000 80,000

AUTO


A realistic current market assessment:•Slow growth overall in sales revenues is the most likely forecast•The number of industrial robots in the future depends on how the auto industry recovers – and its future production might be less dependent on robots than in the past•Sales of relatively low cost domestic and personal service robots (vacuum cleaners, mowers, toys, entertainment) likely to recover as recession ends - small market, overall •Professional and service robots segment may be high potential as an undeveloped market. Currently dominated by military applications - may remain so. •Despite lack of take-up last 5 years, opportunities in health/medical and field robots -perhaps strong chance for growth

In summary: a dispassionate view of the industry today

Source: IEEE Spectrum, http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/industrial-robots/the-rise-of-the-machines

Top 10 countries by robot density, 2008


The robot is less than half the applications system cost in an industrial system application

Source : Mauro Onori, KTH, Sweden , 2003, Automatic Assembly Systems/ B. Carlisle, Adept Technologies, USA, flexible assembly robotics example

Robot

Programming

40% Cost

30

20

10

0

Feeders Grippers&

Tooling


R&D Manufacture Marketing AfterIPR sales

Basic robot manufactureIntegration into target application environment

After sales

Testand

correct

Generic Robotics Value Chain

For each extra system

•Control, communications and coordination systems including activity simulation systems

•Sensor systems•Actuator system/ End effectors

•Tool systems

•Safety systems

Auxiliary systems for systems integration

•Power/utility systems- electric, pneumatic, hydraulic, light, coolants

SystemsIntegration

Bought-in components manufacture

•Control, communications and coordination systems

•Sensors•Actuators/End effectors•Power/utility systems



Re-use of robotIn new application, when current process updated, with new tools and further systems integration


Some of the key players by position in the value chain

Peak RoboticsMany white label suppliers as for consumer electronics (eg for iRobot Roomba)Hon Hai (Taiwan)Active Link (Taiwan)

OEM – white label manufacturing for others in bulk volume

PittmanApplied MotionHoneywellDelta TauGEAdvanced Motion Control

Nanjing SuquiangNumerical Control (brushless AC & DC Servos)Alteks (Taiwan)Topband (Taiwan)Winbond (Taiwan)Sonix (Taiwan)Shayang Ye

SamsungKorea Robot IncJungwooMetronixBan SeokDong Woon

DensoYaskawaFanucSanyoTamagawaSanyo DenkiToshiba

Faulhaber (CH)HarmonicDrive AG (D)Pilz GmbH (D)GVH GmbHSSB DuradriveSEM (UK)ParvexSick (D)

Supplier of standard products –sensor, motors, batteries, actuators, etc to branded robot manufacturers

Applied RoboticsAlio IndustriesPeak Robotics

Siasun RobotCSEMNC (China Shipbuilding)

Korea Robot IncDSME

OkuraDensoFanuc

R U Robotics (UK)Star Automation

Engineering of special components

Buckeye MachineWolf RoboticsInnovation MatrixPeak Robotics

Siasun RobotTriadtech (Taiwan)Acme Manufg.

DSME (shipyardsAitnix

FanucDenso

M3R U RoboticsGeku

Systems integration specialist

Adept (industrial)iRobot (domestic service, military)Raytheon (mil)McDonnell Douglas (mil)GE (industrial)GenmarkOTC/MillerGM (industrial & space)

Cengdu Great IndustrialHangzhou FivestarHiwin (Taiwan)FarGlory (Taiwan)Apex (Taiwan)Microstar (Taiwan)Shenzen Silver Star (robot vac cleaner)

HyundaiDSME (Daewoo)SamsungRobostar

DensoEpsonFanucKawasakiMotoman/YaskawaOTC DaihenOkuraStar SeikiToshiba

ABB (S), KUKA (D) Comau (I)Qinetiq (UK)Aldebaran (F)Reis Robotics (D)British AerospaceIGM (Au)Staubli (CH))Lely (ND)

Original robot designer and supplier, as a branded product

USAChina/TaiwanKoreaJapanEuropePlayer type


The EU’s strongest area - suited to its i industry structure of many SMEs

HighStrong - world-classSystems integration

Lots of bespoke systems with basic knowledge and experience

HighStrong - world-classSpecialised software for cognition and machine intelligence

A wide range of specialist packages available to integrate

HighStrong - world-classSpecialised software for manufacture / process control

Well-developed in radio systems and iGPS

MediumStrong - world-classCommunications and radio positioning

Lots of R&D effort has produced strong offerings in specialist sensors

MediumStrong - world-classSensors

Good at special systemsHighMedium/strongElectro-optics

Major producer Japan. China/Taiwan and Korea entering.

MediumWeakPower supplies including batteries, fuel cells and MICE

Major producers: China, Korea, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, etc and also USA for microcontrollers and microprocessors

Low margins except for some specialised signal processing and high power processors

Weak - some exceptions in special processors. Absent some categories, eg passive components

Electronic components

Major producer Japan. China/Taiwan and Korea entering.

Low margins except at high end, and all currently descending

Fairly strong only at the high end for precision servo motors, etc

Electromechanical components

Some design in Europe (eg Karchner) but manufacture largely in Asia. Japan may be ahead in humanoids.

LowWeakRobotics manufacture for domestic service robots

At level of Japan, Korea and USAMediumStrong - world-classRobotics manufacture for professional service robots

At level of Japan, Korea and USAMediumStrong - world-classRobotics manufacture for industrial applications

CommentAdded valueEU positionArea

Assessing Europe’s position across the value chain segments


Disruptive potential - Routemap projections: developments to 2020 for robotics applications and their technologies

Technology area advance, in volume productionn

Entry-level,specialisedand niche, minoritytechnology,costly

Major growth -competes with non-robotic processes &/or technologies

Accepted, withmarket pricing as amainstreamtechnology

General level of acceptance

2010-2015 2016-2020

Industrial manufacturing, in medium and large enterprises

Domestic service for Elderly care support

Domestic service robots for other than disabled and elderly

Medical and healthcare robotics

Professional Service

3

Road vehicle management

Agriculture and food processingToysToys

1 Tactile sensing in surgery

2 Implementation of effective safety laws for co-working with humans

3 Simple spoken instructions with reasonable rate of understanding

1

2

Industrial manufacturing, in small and micro- enterprises


•Agreement to consider “techno-market areas” rather than just technologies•Crucial that demand-side taken into account •Thus two criteria used for selection:

•Market opportunity•EU capability

These criteria were applied to the following candidates identified in Step 1 and selection workshop:

1 EU ecosystem of robotics industry suppliers2 SME Industrial manufacturing3 Health, including surgery, care for elderly, and hospital services 4 Sensors as a cross-cutting technology5 Safety for robotics, including human interaction6 Food processing and agriculture7 Future large-scale industrial manufacturing8 Applications in environmental industries

•Consensus reached on 1) SMEs and 2) safety

Selection of two areas for further study


SME:• Increasing SME productivity is key to enabling EU competitivity• Most SMEs lag behind in take up• Will create new products and jobs• EU competence for large corporations is world class which could be adapted

Safety:• Safety is a key barrier – overcoming it will drive whole industry and give EU global lead• New, safe robots will facilitate applications in co-working – potentially large market• EU already has competence with skills at a worldwide level• Will drive other technical areas with high added value and intellectual capital

Market opportunity and capability in the 2 areas
