The Future of Higher EducationImplementing Collaborative Student Success Strategies
Paula Myrick ShortSenior Vice Chancellor for Academic Affairs, UH System
Senior Vice President for Academic Affairs and Provost, UH
Raymund ParedesCommissioner
Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
Michael S. McPhersonPresident Emeritus
Spencer Foundation
The Future of Higher Education: National Priorities and RecommendationsMichael S. McPhersonPresident EmeritusSpencer Foundation
Charge
• Report with recommendations
• Undergraduate education, understood broadly
• 20 to 25 year time horizon
Commission members
Chairs
Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. TIAA
Michael S. McPherson formerly, Spencer Foundation
Members
Joseph E. AounNortheastern University
Deborah Loewenberg Ball University of Michigan
Sandy Baum Urban Institute
Rebecca M. Blank University of Wisconsin-Madison
John Seely Brown formerly, Xerox PARC Research
Wesley G. Bush Northrop Grumman
Carl A. Cohn California Collaborative for Educational Excellence
Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr. Purdue University
John J. DeGioiaGeorgetown University
Jonathan F. FantonAmerican Academy of Arts and Sciences
Robert HormatsKissinger Associates; formerly, United States Department of State
Freeman A. Hrabowski III University of Maryland, Baltimore County
Jennifer L. Jennings Princeton University
Jeremy Johnson Andela
Sherry Lansing Sherry Lansing Foundation
Nicholas Lemann Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism
J. Michael Locke formerly, Rasmussen, Inc.
Monica Lozano College Futures Foundation
Gail O. Mellow
LaGuardia Community College
Diana NatalicioUniversity of Texas at El Paso
Hilary Pennington Ford Foundation
Beverly Daniel Tatum formerly, Spelman College
Shirley M. Tilghmanformerly, Princeton University
Michelle Weise Strada Education Network
Project Staff
Francesca Purcell
Eliza Berg
Three action areas
• College completion
• Quality
•Affordability
A New Era: Access no longer the core problem
• Almost 90% of HS grads begin college before age 30
BUT
• 40% of four-year enrollees drop out
• More than half of two-year college students drop out
• Disproportionate impact on minorities, first-year, low-income
• Huge economic, political and social issue
Success is the big problem
• Completing programs
• Quality: Learning and earning credentials of value
How we understand quality
• Prepare for career success
• Prepare for active, effective citizenship
• Prepare for richer cultural and personal life
• Goals for all students, not only the privileged
Liberal vs vocational education?
• Liberal education:• Problem solving• Critical thinking• Communicating
• Vocational education:• Sustainable career in the face of continued turmoil and
technical change
• Not separate paths
Misperceptions about affordability are widespread
• Increases in published tuition prices are not a good indicator of how unaffordable college has become.
• Lowering tuition prices would not solve the affordability problems for most students.
• Affordability is not all about how much money students have before college and how much they pay for college.
15
Tuition & fees—even before financial aid—make up about 20% of budget for full-time community college students; 40% for in-state
students at public 4-year colleges.• Average Estimated Full-Time Undergraduate Budgets (Enrollment-Weighted) by Sector, 2018-19
Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2018, Figure 1.
It’s not just about money
• Lack of academic and social support and guidance is a bigger barrier than tuition for many students.
• Deming and Walters, “The Impacts of Price and Spending Subsidies on U.S. Postsecondary Attainment”
Other barriers to college affordability
• Unequal and inadequate institutional resources
• Income inequality
• Income before, during, and after college
Affordability is not separate from quality and value
• Affordability depends on the value of the education and its financial payoff, not just the price.
• Resources before, during, and after college matter for college affordability
Income inequality underlies affordability problems: Mean income of each fifth and top 5 of families, 2007, 2012, and 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2017, Table F-3.
$18,420
$43,161
$68,098
$99,856
$205,150
$18,944
$46,346
$75,840
$115,834
$245,039
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
Lowest 20% Second 20% Third 20% Fourth 20% Highest 20%
1997 2007 2017
Student debt is a problem—but popular perceptions misrepresent the problem
• The main problem with student debt is not that college graduates are struggling to repay large debts.
• Non-completions creates the biggest problems.
• Borrowers with small debts frequently struggle most.
Default rates are highest among borrowers with small balances. More than 40% of defaulters owe $10,000 or less.Share of Defaulters and Three-Year Federal Student Loan Default Rate Among Borrowers Entering Repayment in 2010-11, by Loan Balance
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2016, Figure 12B
Half of outstanding education debt is held by households in top quarter of income distribution.Share of education debt held by households age 25 and older, by income quartile
Lowestquartile
10%
Second quartile 19%
Third quartile 23%
Highest quartile 49%
Bottom 2nd 3rd Top
Source: Baum and Lee, “Affluent households owe the most student debt, Urban Institute, 2017
Policy directions I: Federal Funding
• Simplify / eliminate FAFSA
• Modify Pell to support full-time enrollment
• One automatic income-driven repayment plan
• Skin in the game / risk sharing for loans
• Eliminate worst schools
Policy Directions II: State funding
• Federal incentives
• Targeted at institutional and state levels
• Performance-based funding
Completion: a component of affordability
• Cost-saving innovations
• Reduced time to degree
o Strong student support systems
o Good teaching
o Data analytics, unit record data
o Guided pathways
o Personal contact
o Pro-active (“intrusive”) advising
• Strengthen K-12
Quality: Who’s minding the store?
NOT core priorities in much of higher ed:• Ongoing efforts to improve course design and instruction• Preparing faculty to teach• Selecting and promoting faculty• Reforming adjunct system
Developing and maintaining effective regulatory structure• For-profit vs. nonprofit• Regular and substantive interaction• Standards for outcomes
Three big ideas
• It’s about learning, not just credentials
• Cheap ≠ Affordable
• Liberal education is career education
Closing Slide
60x30TX: Targets, Goals, and StrategiesRaymund ParedesCommissionerTexas Higher Education Coordinating Board
The Future of Higher Education
March 28, 2019
Raymund A. Paredes
Commissioner of Higher Education
60x30TX: Texas Bold, Texas Achievable
31
32
Goal Target 2016 2017
One-Year Improvement
(pc = point change)
Annual %
Increase
Needed
2020Benchmark
2030Goal/ Target
60x30 60x30 (Educated Population) 41.0% 42.3% 1.3% pc 1.3% 48% 60%
Completion
Overall 321,410 333,920 3.9% 3.9% 376,000 550,000
Hispanic 103,889 111,344 7.2% 7.5% 138,000 285,000
African American 38,813 41,027 5.7% 4.5% 48,000 76,000
Male 135,849 141,564 4.2% 5.2% 168,000 275,000
Economically Disadvantaged 119,490 124,178 3.9% 5.3% 146,000 246,000
TX High School Graduates Enrolling in TX Higher Education
51.9% 52.3% 0.4 pc .7% 58% 65%
Marketable Skills
Working or Enrolled Within One Year 78.8% 78.4% -0.40% pc -- 80% 80%
Student Debt
Student Loan Debt to First Year Wage Percentage
60% 59% -1% pc -- 60% 60%
Excess SCH Attempted* 19 18 -1 SCH -- 12 3
Percent of Undergraduates Completing with Debt
48.2% 47.2% -1% pc -- 50% 50%
Texas made steady progress, but accelerated growth is needed for several targets related to completion and student debt
33
Key Insights
• The 60x30 goal and the completion goal showed strong improvement--at rates
needed to reach 2030 goals.
• Completions for male and economically disadvantaged students grew modestly but
are falling behind needed progress.
• Direct enrollment from high school increased slightly after a two-year decline and
requires additional attention.
• Marketable skills and student debt goals remain steady, although excess semester
credit hour reductions need to pick up the pace.
The 60x30 Educated Population goal increased by 1.3 percentage points from 2015 to 2016
34
The 60x30 Educated Population goal counts residents who follow a variety of education pathways, including those who. . .
• Migrate into TX with credentials or migrate to TX to earn a credential and stay
• Receive credentials in-state after attending public high school in TX
• Receive credentials in-state after earning GEDs, attending private high school
or homeschooling
• Receive credentials in-state as adult students who did not go directly from high
school or stopped out and returned to complete college
• Went to high school in TX, left the state to complete higher education, and
returned
35
• Retain Texas graduates
• Recruit graduates from other
states
• Strength of our economy is critical
• Economic development and job
opportunities
• 21st century industries
• Competitive wages
• Invest in and improve
pathways through Texas K-12
schools to ensure students
are college ready
• Improve all other pathways
into and through higher
education
36
While achievement of the 60x30 Educated Population Goal is possible, systemic improvements are essential for success
37
• Increase the number of Hispanic and African
American students completing a certificate or
degree.
• Increase the number of male and economically
disadvantaged students completing a certificate or
degree.
• Increase the percentage of all Texas public high
school graduates enrolling in a Texas institution of
higher education by the first fall after their high
school graduation.
COMPLETION
Targets to achieve this goal.
52K
87K
129K
53K
53K
91K
134K
56K
Bachelor’s degrees had the largest share, while associate completions increased fastest
Completions increased by more than 12,000 credentials between 2016 and 2017
38
38,81341,027
103,889111,344 119,490
124,178 135,849
141,564
Target:
76,000
Target:
285,000
Target:
246,000
Target:
275,000
All target populations increased completions; Hispanic and African American student completions achieved projected gains
39
22 percent of 8th graders complete a credential 11
years later
Texas public school 8th graders
• Complete high school within 5 years
• Complete a certificate or degree within 6 years
Many students follow a pathway directly from K-12 to higher education, though too few succeed today
40
Students who take alternative pathways make up 64 percent of undergraduate completions in Texas
36%
24%
26%
5%
9%
259,013 Students Completed Undergraduate Credentials in 2017
8th Grade Cohort completers(93,426)
More than 6 years in college ordelayed start (63,060)
Texas residents, did not graduate fromTexas public high school (67,568)
Out of state resident (12,682)
Out of country residents (22,277)
41
After a two-year decline, direct enrollment from high school increased slightly from 51.9% to 52.3%
42
The THECB enhanced support for the marketable skills goal; institutions reported varied levels of progress
• Marketable skills implementation guidelines were developed.
• Marketable skills conference offered technical assistance to institutions
about how to develop marketable skills and how to communicate skills
to students.
• The target related to the percent of graduates in Texas found working
and/or enrolled in Texas in the first year following graduation remained
steady at 78.8%.
43
Baseline Year
Recent Trend Years Target
2013 2014 2015 2030
59.5% 59.8% 58.9% 60%
Student debt as a percentage of first-year wage remained below the 60% goal
44
Target: Limit proportion of undergraduates with debt to no more than half.
The share of graduates with debt declined for the second year in a row to 47.2%
45
14
27
13
26
Target: Decrease excess SCH to 3 by 2030.
Excess semester credit hours decline modestly; substantial progress is needed to reach the 2020 benchmark of 12 SCH
46
Students are graduating more efficiently, with fewer excess semester credit hours
1514
13
2726
24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 2017 2018
Excess Semester Credit Hours Attempted When Completing an Associate or Bachelor’s Degree
Bachelor's (Universities) Associate (CTCs)
-3 SCH for Associate Degrees = $11M in GR
$26M in Tuition & Fees
-2 SCH for Bachelor’s Degrees =$17M in GR
$66M in Tuition & Fees
47
48
• 60x30TX.com and revised accountability system
• Almanac (2019 edition coming soon)
• Data Fellows program
• Regional 60x30TX
Targets
THECB supports strategic use of data to inform institution-and state-level policy and practice
Investing in higher education is an important priority for the state and for individuals
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Communities Survey, 2014, 2015, and 2016.3-Year average inflation-adjusted earnings summed for ages 25 to 64 by educational attainment for those working more than 32 hours per week and 49 weeks per year.Inflation indices from Consumer Price Index Detailed Report Tables - https://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpi_dr.htm#2017
49
Major Policy Recommendationsto Achieve 60x30TX
50
51
Legislative Recommendation: Approval of New Off-Campus Sites
SB 2000 filed by Sen. Alvarado/HB 4586 by Rep. Anchia
- Require institutions obtain Coordinating Board review and approval prior to acquiring
property to create a new or expand an existing off-campus academic, technical
or research site. Limit the review and approval to sites that are not on or near
the main campus. Provide for confidential and expedited review of proposed
acquisitions.
- Ensures more efficient use of state resources and promotes objectivity in pursuit of
60x30TX goals
- Prevents unnecessary duplication
52
Legislative Recommendation: Texas WORKS Internship Program
SB 1192 filed by Sen. West/HB 3042 filed by Rep. Turner
- Modify the Texas College Work-Study program to institute Texas WORKS
- Texas WORKS will create a centralized off-campus work- study program to provide
students with limited financial means an opportunity to pursue paid internships
- Builds on Tri-agency findings and recommendations
- Contributes to 60x30TX goals for marketable skills and
student debt
53
Legislative Recommendation: 60x30TX Graduation Supplement
SB 1504 filed by Sen. Zaffirini/HB 3908 filed by Rep. Thierry
- Revise the Operations Support formula for universities to include an allocation
methodology for graduates, in addition to enrollments
- Award universities $500 per non at-risk graduate and $1,000
per at-risk graduate
- Mirrors recommendation from 85th Legislature
- Directly contributes to 60x30TX goal for increased degree completion
54
Legislative Recommendation: Improve Student Transfer
SB 1923 filed by Sen. West/HB 4019 filed by Rep. Turner
- Strengthen role of the Texas Core Curriculum in fulfilling general
education requirements and facilitating transfer
- Limit core to lower division courses consistent with the Texas
Common Course Numbering System (TCCNS).
- By creating more efficient transfer, will contribute to
60x30TX goals for completion and student debt
55
Funding Recommendations for the 2020-21 Biennium
- $500,000 for GradTX
- $1,300,000 for 60x30TX Regional Strategies
- $100,000 for Financial Literacy Initiatives
- $250,000 for Open Educational Resources Repository
- $200,000 for Open Educational Resources Grant Program
- Increase formula funding for public community colleges
- Total increase of $96.7M (or 5.5%) over the current biennium
- Increase funding for Student Success Points from $171.56 to $215 per point
- Increase formula funding for public technical colleges
- Total increase of $36M (or 25.1%) over the current biennium
- Increase funding for Returned Value Model at TSTC by $35.7M (or 28%)
56
If we achieve all these actions, we will make significant strides toward 60x30TX.
We will reinvigorate higher education as the primary engine of social mobility.
We must be relentless in these efforts.
Closing Slide
State Student Success and Demographic DataJulie EklundAssistant Commissioner, Strategic Planning and Funding DivisionTexas Higher Education Coordinating Board
State Student Success and Demographic Data
March 28, 2019
Julie A. Eklund, PhD
Assistant Commissioner
Strategic Planning and Funding
Student success matters: Investing in higher education is an important priority for the state and for individuals
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Communities Survey, 2014, 2015, and 2016.3-Year average inflation-adjusted earnings summed for ages 25 to 64 by educational attainment for those working more than 32 hours per week and 49 weeks per year.Inflation indices from Consumer Price Index Detailed Report Tables - https://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpi_dr.htm#2017
60
Data can highlight progress and inform action
This presentation will cover
• Statewide demographic data and projections
• Higher education enrollment forecast for 2018-2030
• Progress made on key student success metrics, statewide
• Regional collaborative work on 60x30TX priorities, and
• Selected Gulf Coast demographic and success data
61
Growing States, 2010-2018
Rank State 2010 2017 2018Numeric growth
2017-2018
Percent Growth 2017-2018
Percent Growth 2010-2018
1 Texas 25,146,114 28,322,717 28,701,845 379,128 1.3% 14.1%
2 Florida 18,804,580 20,976,812 21,299,325 322,513 1.5% 13.3%
3 California 37,254,523 39,399,349 39,557,045 157,696 0.4% 6.2%
4 Arizona 6,392,288 7,048,876 7,171,646 122,770 1.7% 12.2%
5 North Carolina 9,535,736 10,270,800 10,383,620 112,820 1.1% 8.9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2018 Population Estimates.
Slides 4-9 are courtesy of Texas Demographic Center, https://demographics.texas.gov/
• About 1,039 people per day added to
our population.
• About 524 people per day from
natural increase (more births than
deaths)
• About 515 people per day from net
migration (288 international and
227 domestic migrants per day).
Natural Increase
50%
Domestic Migration
22%
International Migration
28%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates.
Texas added 379,128 people between July 1, 2017
and July 1, 2018.
Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2015
44.1%
50.6%
69.4%
35.8%
33.0%
17.3%
7.1%
7.3%
7.8%
13.1%
9.1%
5.5%
2015
2010
2005
Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Population estimates 2017 vintage and 2000-2010 intercensual estimates
Estimated number of international migrants to Texas
101,588
77,702
98,194
DallasHoward
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
Freestone
Winkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
TrinityReeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
La Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
MadisonMcCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim Wells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
FortBend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
POPESTIMATE2017
134 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 500,000
500,001 - 2,000,000
2,000,001 - 4,652,980
87%
Projected population aged 18-24 by race and ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2050
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
Total
Hispanic
NH White
NH Black
NH Asian
NH Other
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
Percent of the population enrolled in college for persons aged 18-24 years, 25-34 years, and the total population aged 15 years and older, 2010-2017
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Enrolled18-24
Enrolled25-34
Total
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010 -2017 1 Year Samples
Interactive map showing education levels of Texans ages 25-34 is available on the www.60x30TX.com website
To access the map go to: https://www1.thecb.state.tx.us/map/attainment/
The Higher Education Enrollment Forecast is designed to inform institutional and statewide planning efforts
• To advise institutions what their enrollments are projected to be if they do not change their demographic and geographic drawing patterns
• To provide statewide baseline enrollment figures for universities, two-year public colleges, and independent institutions
• To plan for statewide and regional efforts, including THECB planning activities
The fall headcount enrollment forecast predicts growth in college and university populations for all sectors
70
Actual ActualActual Prelim.
Total Projections
2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
Public Universities 557,550 619,175 658,222 666,757 676,716 721,829 758,659
Public Two-Year Colleges 743,252
718,547 758,061 768,477 779,740 832,640 877,311
Independent Universities 122,894
125,440 126,241 127,438 127,913 130,063 131,819
Total 1,423,696 1,463,162 1,542,524 1,562,673 1,584,369 1,684,531 1,767,789
Forecasted increases in fall headcount participation indicate slowing growth over time
71
2010-2015 (actual)
2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030
Increase/ Decrease
PercentChange
IncreasePercent Change
IncreasePercent Change
IncreasePercentChange
Public Universities
61,625 11.1% 57,541 9.3% 45,113 6.7% 36,830 5.1%
Public Two-Year Colleges
-24,705 -3.3% 61,193 8.5% 52,899 6.8% 44,672 5.4%
Independent Universities
2,546 2.1% 2,473 2.0% 2,150 1.7% 1,756 1.4%
Total Increase 39,466 2.8% 121,207 8.3% 100,162 6.3% 83,258 4.9%
All regions show growth, but 90% of enrollment growth is predicted for four regions of the state
72
Regional Enrollment Totals Actual Actual Actual Prelim. Total Projections
(public Institutions only) 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
Central Texas 232,570 238,630 246,420 249,200 251,663 264,426 273,847
Gulf Coast 273,046 287,340 308,190 313,764 319,723 352,051 381,614
High Plains 63,910 66,739 70,083 70,961 71,631 74,850 76,875
Metroplex 309,686 326,660 353,562 360,026 368,004 403,686 430,684
Northwest 19,260 17,308 18,638 18,922 19,055 19,568 20,018
South Texas 231,827 232,076 242,329 243,905 247,042 255,203 262,072
Southeast Texas 40,968 39,089 40,076 40,201 40,387 41,470 42,296
Upper East Texas 50,937 47,371 49,261 49,700 49,857 50,840 51,159
Upper Rio Grande 51,435 53,063 55,189 55,408 55,323 54,923 56,489
West Texas 27,163 29,446 32,535 33,147 33,771 37,450 40,917
Total 1,300,802 1,337,722 1,416,283 1,435,235 1,456,456 1,554,468 1,635,970
Public two-year colleges will continue to enroll the largest proportion of students
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Th
ou
sa
nd
s Universities Two-Year Colleges833K
722K
73
Key Takeaways
• Recent enrollments have remained high despite very low levels of unemployment
in Texas, bucking the trend in many states across the country
• Current enrollment projections predict steady increases in enrollment, but
unexpected economic changes may alter these predictions, as might a range of
other variables
• The population growth shows slowing growth for our younger aged population as
we near 2030, which is reflected in the forecast
• Growth is not consistent across regions of the state
74
75
Key success metrics show improvement, but national data and workforce analyses highlight need for continued effort
A larger percentage of students are successfully earning degrees and doing so more quickly
76
+12.0%
+15.3%
+18.7%
18.5 21.7
13.714.1
17.115.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 cohort 2014 cohort
3-Yr Outcomes, Texas Community College Students
Graduate Transfer Persist
49.3%51.5%
77
Three-year success rates continue to improve for first-time, full-time Texas public two-year college students
25,936
59,895
27,841
50,347
34,732
57,825
42,712
54,278
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2-Year Eco-Disad 2-Year Not Eco-Disad 4-Year Eco-Disad 4-Year Not Eco-Disad
*Note: Only includes certificates, associate, and bachelor's degrees; "Two-Year" includes Texas public community and technical colleges; and "Four-Year" includes Texas public universities and health-related institutions.
#o
f C
om
ple
tio
ns
Became majority at four-
year schools in 2012
Became majority at two-
year schools in 2010
Completions by economically disadvantaged students have increased over the last 10 years and now make up the majority of completions.*
78
45 percent of completers in 2017 were 25 years or older
79
7,772
37,624
26,792
54,527
110,462
40,936
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Com
ple
tions
Undergraduate Degrees Awarded, by Age FY 2017
<21 22-24 25-29 30-34 35-50 51+
Community and technical colleges are accelerating student progress through developmental education (DE)
14,053 15,144
11,605
9,360 7,568
17,78117,695
12,640
10,263
9,674
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
Thousa
nds
Statewide State-Funded DE Contact Hours (In Thousands)
Dev. Ed English Dev. Ed Math
DE contact hours decreased by
nearly 2.4 million hours and nearly
$6M between 2016 and 2018
80
Successful and timely completion of the first college-level course (FCLC) by students not college ready has increased over past 5 years.
6% 6% 7%11%
16% 17%
24% 24%27%
29%
37%39%
19% 21% 22%24%
30%32%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Percent of students not college-ready who complete a FCLC in non-ready subject within one year, Statewide
Math Reading Writing
Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 81
• In 2018, 72 percent of all public university
graduates had completed hours at a
community college
• 38 percent completed less than 30 hours
• 34 percent completed 30 hours or more
• Transfer students attempt and complete
more “excess hours” than native students,
leading to higher costs for students and
the state
82
Several statistics point to the importance of collaboration across higher education sectors
33.8%
37.8%
28.3%
Percentage of graduates by SCH taken at a two-year institution prior to baccalaureate graduation
30+SCH1 - 29SCH
83
• 60x30TX.com and revised accountability system
• Almanac (2019 edition coming soon)
• Regional 60x30TX Targets
The agency is supporting the strategic use of data to inform institution-and state-level policy and practice
Higher education enrollments in the Gulf Coast region show significant demographic changes since 2000
Source: THECB Regional Portal 84
Completions are growing in the Gulf Coast, but not fast enough
52,545 56,762 58,548 61,112
0
80,866
97,861
118,310
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Target 2025 Target 2030 Target
Source: THECB Regional Workbook 85
The Gulf Coast, like other urban areas, has higher attainment levels
Source: THECB Regional Workbook 86
Gulf Coast target for 2030: 65%
Submitted Regional Strategy: Educated Population
Collaborate with industry partners and the Greater Houston
Partnership through UpSkill Houston to create an Upskill plan for
the Gulf Coast region that will recruit/develop/retain the talent
pipeline – with credentials from level-one certificates to graduate
degrees – for the Gulf Coast workforce.
Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 87
Submitted Regional Strategy: Completion
Modeled on the success of Houston GPS, Gulf Coast higher
education institutions will create a Regional Transfer Consortium
to strengthen transfer pathways from two-year colleges to four-
year universities so that more students are able to transfer
efficiently with minimal excess credits and time to degree.
Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 88
Submitted Regional Strategy: High School-to-Higher Education
Gulf Coast higher education institutions will partner with Gulf
Coast K-12 partners to improve or expand recruitment strategies
and efforts at their schools by sharing data and best practices,
with a targeted focus on direct enrollment into college the first
semester after high school.
Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 89
Questions?
90
Closing Slide
Regional/Local Student Success and Demographic DataBob HarveyExecutive President and Chief Executive OfficerGreater Houston Partnership
Closing Slide
Generation Z Characteristics and Implications for Higher EducationEd VenitManaging DirectorEAB
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
Implications of Gen Z for the Future of Higher EducationHouston GPS
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
114
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
Ed VenitManaging Director
Follow me on Twitter
@HigherEdVenit
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
115
Ensure More Americans Get a ‘Return on Education’
Source: Overflow Solutions analysis of US Census data
http://overflow.solutions/interactive-visualizations/how-do-americans-differ-by-age-16/
Our Mission
American Educational Attainment by Age, 2016
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
116
Ensure More Americans Get a ‘Return on Education’
Source: Overflow Solutions analysis of US Census data
http://overflow.solutions/interactive-visualizations/how-do-americans-differ-by-age-16/
Our Mission
American Educational Attainment by Age, 2016
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
ROAD MAP117
1 Gen Z is Smaller
2 Gen Z is Value Driven and Risk Adverse
3 Gen Z Expects Systems to Work
4 Gen Z May Need More Help from You
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
118
College Capacity Increased in Response to the Millennial Boom
A Decade of Growth
2,5
82
2,6
75
2,7
74
2,9
68
3,0
39
3,0
04
2005 2010 2015
Total 4-Year Degree-Granting Colleges and Universities
422Additional schools 2005-2015
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
119
Gen Z High School Graduates Won’t Be Enough to Fulfill Growth Goals
Slowing Growth of High School Graduates
Source: EAB analysis of WICHE data.
Growth in High School Graduates 2001-2031
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
Millions o
f H
S G
raduate
s
+1.6% growth
-0.1%growth
-0.6% growth
GROWTH(pre-2013)
STAGNATION(2014-2023)
DECLINE(2023-????)
Most senior leaders learned their roles during a period of enrollment growth and will have to adapt to the coming decade
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
121
Source: Grawe, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education,
2018; EAB analysis.
Some Regions More at Risk Than Others
Annual Change in College-Going High School Graduates2018-2023
Annual Growth
+1.5%
+3.0%
+4.5%
0.0%
-1.5%
-3.0%
Higher
Lower
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
122
Growth Through 2023 Will Be Largely Found in Less Populated Areas
Source: Grawe, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education,
2018; EAB analysis.
Some Regions More at Risk Than Others
Annual Change in College-Going High School Graduates2018-2023
Annual Growth
+1.5%
+3.0%
+4.5%
0.0%
-1.5%
-3.0%
Higher
Lower
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
123
Decline Felt Most Strongly in Urban Centers, Midwest, and Eastern US
Source: Grawe, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education,
2018; EAB analysis.
Some Regions More at Risk Than Others
Annual Change in College-Going High School Graduates2018-2023
Annual Growth
+1.5%
+3.0%
+4.5%
0.0%
-1.5%
-3.0%
Higher
Lower
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
124
Majority of Nation Goes Into Enrollment Decline at the End of the 2020s
Source: Grawe, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education,
2018; EAB analysis.
Some Regions Hit Harder Than Others
Annual Change in College-Going High School Graduates 2018-2029
Annual Growth
+1.5%
+3.0%
+4.5%
0.0%
-1.5%
-3.0%
Higher
Lower
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
ROAD MAP125
1 Gen Z is Smaller
2 Gen Z is Value Driven and Risk Adverse
3 Gen Z Expects Systems to Work
4 Gen Z May Need More Help from You
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
126
0
50
100
Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16
0
50
100
Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16
Public Skepticism Rising as Students Pay More but Don’t Get Better Returns
A Growing Crisis of Confidence
Source: Google Trends search “Is college worth it”; Federal Reserve Bank of NY:
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market/college-labor-market_underemployment_rates.html#; https://ticas.org/sites/default/files/pub_files/classof2014.pdf; EAB interviews and analysis;.
42%46%
2004 2014
Underemployment for Recent
Grads (22-27)
$18,550
$28,950
2004 2014
Average Student
Debt at Graduation
“Is College Worth It?”Google Trends 2004-2016
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
127
Source: “How This Company Created the First Software Development Apprenticeship Program Approved by the Department of
Labor,” https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/how-this-company-created-first-software-development-apprenticeship-program-approved-by-department-of-labor.html; “2018 Coding Bootcamp Market Size Study,” https://www.coursereport.com/reports/2018-coding-bootcamp-market-size-research.
A Return to Apprenticeships?
Bootcamp Market Maturing
Reduced Risk for Student and Employer
Emergence of an Apprenticeship Model
• Provides software development engagements for clients
• Work completed by paid apprentices with no coding experience
• 24-week program alternates skills training with ~1000 hours of project work
• Majority of apprentices women and underrepresented minorities
High-Profile Closures
Slow Growth
Business Model Under Pressure
Guaranteed job offer at the end
New hire has experience in their specific tech stack
For Students
For Employers
Most bootcamps now rely on ISA funding for revenue
Dev Bootcamp
Iron Yard
No new providers from 2017-2018 vs. 62 from 2013 to 2016
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
128
Affordability Overwhelmingly the Top Reason for Choosing Two-Year School
Gen Z Looking for Value
56%
9% 8%5% 4%
2% 2%
14%
It was more
affordable
I wanted to improve
my academic record
I didn't get into the
school I wanted
I wanted to be close
to home
I was advised by my
family/friends
It had the program I
wanted
I was advised by my
HS counselor
Other
Regardless of income, “affordability” was the top reason for starting at a 2-year institution
58%Under $30K
(N = 170)
68%$30K to $60K
(N = 173)
59%$60K to $120K
(N = 234)
51%$120K to $250K
(N = 94)
42%Over $250K
(N = 24)
What was the primary reason you attended a community college?
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
129
Results of EAB Survey of Gen Z College-Going Students
“Pragmatist” Segment Opting for Two-Year Start
Traditional 2-Year Students
Value-Driven Pragmatists
Accepted to 4-yr, but attend 2-yr
Traditional 4-Year Students
49% White 60% White 56% White
25% Hispanic 25% Hispanic 13% Hispanic
14% African American 11% African American 13% African American
36% First Generation 28% First Generation 24% First Generation
31% Income Under $30K1 17% Income Under $30K 22% Income Under $30K1
39% Attend Full-Time 85% Attend Full-Time 73% Attend Full-Time
68% Take Dev Courses 43% Take Dev Courses 40% Take Dev Courses
25% Work Full Time 18% Work Full Time 20% Work Full Time
51% Work Part Time 58% Work Part Time 45% Work Part Time
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130
Gen Zs Want Bang for Their Buck, not Just a Low Price
Are You Selling on Price or on Opportunity?
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131
Gen Zs Want Bang for Their Buck, not Just a Low Price
Are You Selling on Price or on Opportunity?
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
ROAD MAP132
1 Gen Z is Smaller
2 Gen Z is Value Driven and Risk Adverse
3 Gen Z Expects Systems to Work
4 Gen Z May Need More Help from You
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
133
Networks of Schools Sharing Credit Pathways, Serving Community Needs
The Emerging Higher Education “Ecosystem”
Transfer
TwoYear
FourYear
HighSchool
Employers
Local Ecosystem
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
134
Source: Shapiro D, et al., “Completing College: A National View of Student Attainment Rates – Fall 2010 Cohort (Signature Report No.
12)”; https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2015/06/08/two-year-transfers-are-finding-not-all-their-credits-go-them
EAB interviews and analysis.
Deviation and Credit Accumulation Resulting from a Broken Transfer System
The Ecosystem Has a Long Way to Go
Earning Excess Credits
Failing to Transfer Earning Nontransferable Credits
Dropping Out
61%of students do not obtain an associate degree within 6 years of enrollment
69% of the students who intended to transfer do not do so successfully
13 credits Average number of excess credits earned by community college students
1
2
3
4
12 credits Average number of non-transferable credits earned by community college students
Important to Understand the Root Cause of Excess Credits
Students’ misunderstanding the requirements for their programs
Colleges’ inadequate advising and enrollment management systems
Misalignment between community colleges and the four-year system
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
135
Strong Pathways Deliver Value to Students, Schools, and Communities
Source: Belfield C, et al., “Is It Really Cheaper to Start at a Community College? The
Consequences of Inefficient Transfer for Community College Students Seeking Bachelor’s Degrees.” https://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/publications/really-cheaper-start-at-community-college-consequences-inefficient-transfer.html; EAB interviews and analysis.
A Tale of Two States
CCRC Report: “Is It Really Cheaper to Start at a Community College?” (2017)
Alpha System
• 10+ community colleges
• Moderately strong articulation
• Major-specific pathways
Omega System
• 30+ community colleges
• Weak articulation
• No pathways
Odds of Cost Savings
Average Savings
57.3%
36.1%
$1,230
-$2,400
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
ROAD MAP137
1 Gen Z is Smaller
2 Gen Z is Value Driven and Risk Adverse
3 Gen Z Expects Systems to Work
4 Gen Z May Need More Help from You
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
138
Deploying Staff to Operate at ‘Top of License’ Maximizes Value, Efficiency
Could Reorganizing Staff Improve ROI?
$60K $60K $60K $120K$60K
Expert CounselorProfessional Advisors
300:1 caseloadsFour student touchpoints per year
Per student touchpoint$60
$60K $60K $60K$60K
350:1 caseloadsFour student touchpoints per year
High-Risk Specialist
100:1 caseload12 student touchpoints per year
$120K
Per student touchpoint$53
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
139
A More Efficient Way to Organize Staff and Provide Better Support
Source: EAB interviews and analysis.
Population Health Management
$120,000per year
$60,000per year
$0-$10per hour
Counselors
Professional Advisors
Facultyand Staff
Peer Advisors
Automated Messaging
LOW RISK Scalable Advisingto extend support by automating and personalizing guidance
HIGH RISKHigh-Touch Coordinated Care supported by collaboration between different support units
MODERATE RISK Proactive Monitoringto find and focus support efforts on hidden early problems
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
140
©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com
Ed VenitManaging Director
Follow me on Twitter
@HigherEdVenit
Washington DC Richmond Birmingham Minneapolis
202-747-1000 eab.com
Closing Slide
Breakout Session: 1:00 pm – 2:00 pm
Breakout Session: 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm
Dessert and Dialogue
(Photo)Tom Sugar Vice President for Partnerships, EAB
Closing Slide