The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
What’s New in the LMI World—Nevada’s Perspective
Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation
Frank R. Woodbeck, Director
Bill Anderson, Chief Economist
Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau for the Second Annual EMSI Conference—September 2012
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada’s Recession Scorecard: Unemployment Rate
Despite the fact that it has come down from all-time highs, Nevada’s jobless rate is 6.8 percentage points higher than at the “official” start of the recession in December 2007.
The U.S. unemployment rate stands 3.3 points higher than at the start of the recession.
12.0%
5.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
December 2007 July 2012
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Unemployment Rate Rankings (SA)
In July, Nevada maintained the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Rhode Island was second-highest, at 10.8%. North Dakota’s three percent jobless rate was the lowest.
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Nevada
Rhode Island
California
New Jersey
North Carolina/SouthCarolina
Vermont
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Nebraska
North Dakota5
15
04
94
84
65
43
21
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada’s Recession Scorecard: Non-Farm Jobs (SA)
Nevada’s job losses since the “official” start of the recession in December 2007 total 158K (-12.2%).
Over the same period, U.S. jobs are down 3.4%. 400K jobs were created in Nevada between 1997 and 2007.
1,134,700
1,293,100
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
December 2007 July 2012
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Number of States with Higher Rates of Job Growth than Nevada (year-over-year; 2012 data are for June)
As of June, just 19 states had a higher job growth rate than NV. Over the 2003-2005 period, NV had the highest growth in the nation. At the height of the recession, every other state had a higher rate of job
growth than NV.
0 0 03
24
4750 50
32
19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
In Nevada, We Need Information & Intelligence, Not Just Data
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Las Vegas Strip Casino Revenue: Gaming vs. Nongaming (share of total revenue; by fiscal year)
The traditional “gaming” industry in Nevada has diversified. In FY 2011, 62% of Las Vegas Strip casino revenue was from nongaming sources
(rooms, food/beverage, etc.), and that share has been consistently on the rise. Gaming revenue accounts for just 38% of the total, down significantly from a 59%
share in FY 1989.
38%
59%
62%
41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
gaming nongaming
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Current Population Survey Results
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization (four quarters ending 2012:IIQ)
U-3 similar in scope to the official rate. U-4 includes discouraged workers. U-6 includes all persons available for work whom are only marginally
attached to the labor force plus involuntary part-time workers.
Measure Underutilization Concept Level
Official Rate
jobless persons available to take a job who have actively sought work in the past four weeks 12.7%
U-1 jobless 15 weeks or longer 7.9%
U-2job losers and persons losing a temporary job 7.7%
U-3 similar to official rate 12.3%
U-4 U-3 plus discouraged workers 13.4%
U-5U-4 plus others marginally attached to the labor force 14.9%
U-6U-5 plus those employed part-time for economic reasons 22.1%
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization(four quarters ending 2012:IIQ)
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
NV Labor Force Participation Rate (labor force / population; 12-month moving average)
Nevada’s labor force participation rate has been trending down in recent years, although there has been considerable volatility.
In late-2008, the LFPR peaked at nearly 70%. In the 12 months ending in May, 65.1% of the population was in the labor force (either employed or unemployed).
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Discouraged Workers in Nevada (12-month moving average)
The number of discouraged workers skyrocketed during the recession…an eight-fold increase.
While the increase appears to be easing, there are still 16K discouraged workers in the State.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Unemployment Duration in Nevada (12-month average)
Roughly half of unemployed Nevadans half been without work for more than 26 weeks.
This has the potential for long-term implications.
Less than 5 weeks 18%
5 to 14 Weeks20%
15 to 26 Weeks 14%
27 weeks or more 48%
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Information From Unemployment Insurance Programs
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
Initial claims totaled 18,700 in July, barely up from a year ago. This represents the first increase in more than 2.5 years. Claims activity during the first week in August was down 12.8% from a year
ago, suggesting that July’s results are likely not the start of a trend. Claims activity during the recession peaked in excess of 36,000.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2011 2012
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Total Unemployment Insurance Claims vs. the Total Number of Unemployed
There were approximately 65,600 Nevadans submitting UI claims in July. 34,700 were regular UI claims; 30,900 fell under a variety of extension programs. Of the 172,000 Nevadans estimated to be unemployed in July, 38%, were receiving
benefits. In the first half of 2008, 46% of those counted as unemployed received benefits. At its peak, the “coverage ratio” exceeded 70%.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Regular State/Federal Extensions Total Unemployment
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Unemployment Insurance Benefit “Coverage Ratio” (share of unemployed receiving benefits)
After peaking at over 70% in early 2009, the UI coverage ratio (45.5%) is nearly back to its average 2007 level (41.3%).
Extended UI benefits provide more than half of this coverage, as regular benefits cover just 21.6% of unemployed Nevadans.
The fall in regular benefit coverage is explained in part by the presence of extended benefits and in part by long-term unemployment, which has reduced the number of people eligible for new UI claims.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Regular Benefits Extended Benefits
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Business Employment Dynamics Insights
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada Labor Market Dynamics: Gross Job Gains and Losses (SA)
Typically, our monthly analyses focus on net job growth or loss. Beneath the surface, there is considerable activity taking place.
During the recession, gross job gains at expanding or opening private sector establishments tumbled noticeably, while gross job losses at closing or contracting establishments spiked.
As the State’s labor market improved, albeit haltingly, gross gains have stabilized, while gross losses are easing down.
In last year’s fourth quarter (the most recent data available), gross job gains were about 57,500 and losses were about 55,200.
-60,000
-40,000
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0
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02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
gains losses
difference = gains - losses
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Local Employment Dynamics Information
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Employment: 14-18 Year Olds
Employment trends suggest Nevada teens were hit very hard by the recession.
Employment levels (based upon official wage records) have essentially been cut in half…from a pre-recession peak of more than 46K to just above 20K.
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02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Employment by Industry: 14-18 Year Olds(four quarters ending 2011:IIQ)
Just five industries account of more than three-fourths of teen employment in Nevada.
Two industries—accommodation/food services and retail trade—account for nearly two-thirds of teen employment.
Accommodation/Food Services
41%
Retail Trade21%
Admin. and Support/Waste Mgmt. and Remediation Srvs.
6%
Construction5%
Health Care/Social Assistance
4%
Other23%
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada Average Monthly Earnings: All Workers vs. New Hires
In examining wages and earnings, the focus is often on some measure of average earnings.
It is important to note that wages for new hires tend to be below the average. Specifically, new hire earnings (measured on a monthly basis) tend to be about two-
thirds of the overall average.
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
IQ IIQ
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ IIQ
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ IIQ
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ IIQ
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ IIQ
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ IIQ
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ IIQ
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ IIQ
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ IIQ
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 '11
all workers new hires
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Last, But Not Least, We have the Labor Market Intelligence Provided via EMSI
To date, EMSI resources have been used to support and inform the State’s new focus on economic development.
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
2008 - 2018 Job Growth by Training Level
Over the next several years, jobs with higher-level training requirements are expected to grow the fastest. Jobs requiring a two-year associate’s degree are projected to show the most growth in percentage terms. The largest number of available job openings will continue to be found in occupations requiring on-the-job training (about 4,800 per year).
10.4%
12.9%
18.1%
5.3%
9.8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Short to long-term on-the-job-training
Postsecondary vocationaltraining
Bachelor's degree
Higher than Bachelor'sdegree
Associate's degree
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada’s Changing Economic Structure via “Location Quotients”
A measure of relative importance. NV job share/national job share. LQ>1 implies greater concentration in NV. LQ<1 implies less concentration in NV. Notable trends:
accommodation/food services three times more important in NV than in U.S. (but declining) construction has been hit hard; LQ much closer to one health care is growing, but job share is still only about two-thirds of the national average public sector employment in NV only about 80% of U.S. average
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Manufacturing
Health Care and Social Assistance
Wholesale Trade
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Government
Retail Trade
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and RemediationServices
Transportation and Warehousing
Construction
Accommodation and Food Services
2011 2001
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Top-Ten High Growth, High Concentration, High Wage Industries (2006-2011)
Despite the impacts of the recession, there have been some Nevada success stories. While overall job levels trended down, several showed growth over the past half-decade. In total, the top-ten high job growth, high concentration (a greater share of NV employment is in these industries than in the nation), high
wage industries added more than 10,500 jobs between 2006 and 2011.
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
Other Performing Arts Companies
Other Heavy and Civil EngineeringConstruction
Scheduled Passenger AirTransportation
Support Activities for Metal Mining
Oil and Gas Pipeline and RelatedStructures Construction
Other Support Activities for AirTransportation
Gold Ore Mining
Offices of Dentists
Solid Waste Collection
Corporate, Subsidiary, and RegionalManaging Offices
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Ten Nevada Industries with the Largest 2010-2011 "Competitive Job Shares"
Shift-Share analyses identify that share of industry job growth in a region that is likely due to national trends (expected change), including trends specific to that industry, and region-specific trends (competitive share).
Temporary help services had the largest competitive share in Nevada last year. In all, this industry added 1,800 jobs last year—1,200 were expected given broader trends at the national level and 600 (the competitive share) were due to trends specific to Nevada.
All told, the ten industries in Nevada with the largest competitive shares grew 7.2%, nearly three times faster than their national growth rate—2.5%. Several of the industries with the smallest competitive shares were those impacted most by the recession—commercial building, commercial banking, local government, electrical contractors, etc.
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
All Other Support Services
Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists)
Landscaping Services
Convention and Trade Show Organizers
Oil and Gas Pipeline and Related Structures Construction
Telemarketing Bureaus and Other Contact Centers
Janitorial Services
General Medical and Surgical Hospitals
Security Guards and Patrol Services
Temporary Help Services
competitive share expected change actual change
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
2007-2011 Health and Medical Services Sector Employment Growth: Ten Fastest Growing Industries
The HMS Sector weathered the recent recession better than others. All told, approximately 8,200 jobs were added between 2007 and 2011. Of the 41 detailed industries within the sector, all but 13 grew over the period. Of the decliners, only one, medical laboratories, had a significant
loss (-400 jobs).
Industry 2007 Jobs 2011 Jobs Change
General Medical and Surgical Hospitals (Private) 18,959 20,647 1,688Home Health Care Services 3,708 5,063 1,355Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) 16,034 17,284 1,250Offices of Dentists 6,971 7,531 560Nursing Care Facilities 5,160 5,634 474Homes for the Elderly 1,559 1,944 385Specialty (except Psychiatric and Substance Abuse) Hospitals (Private) 1,390 1,744 354Offices of Physical, Occupational and Speech Therapists, and Audiologists 1,951 2,301 350Residential Mental Health and Substance Abuse Facilities 620 959 339Kidney Dialysis Centers 572 824 252
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
2001-2011 Tourism/Gaming/Entertainment Employment Growth by Sub-Sector
Within the broadly-defined Nevada TGE sector, most sub-sectors have added jobs. In some cases, gains have been considerable.
Food/drinking establishments have added 34K jobs in the past decade. The retail trade and non-casino lodging sub-sectors each added about 7K employees to payroll.
The most notable drop came in the gaming sub-sector, where 26K positions were cut.
-30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
Gaming
Travel Assistance
News and Information
Arts, Entertainment &Recreation
Manufacturing
Transit
Lodging (non-casino)
Retail
Food and Drinking
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
For Additional Information, Please Contact:
Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation
Research and Analysis Bureau
Bill Anderson
Chief Economist
(775) 684-0450
http://www.nevadaworkforce.com
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