Download pdf - Wi-Fi Opportunities In A 4G World

Current & Future Opportuni.es for Wi-‐Fi in a 4G World

Brough Turner [email protected] [email protected]

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ITU Vision for 3G

Satellite

Macrocell Microcell

Urban In-Building

Picocell

Global

Suburban

Basic Terminal PDA Terminal

Audio/Visual Terminal

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“3G” Services •  3G-‐324M Video telephony

•  Loca.on-‐based services •  Push-‐to-‐Talk (VoIP w/o QoS) •  Rich presence (instant messaging)

•  Fixed-‐mobile convergence (FMC)

•  IP Mul.media Services (w/ QoS) –  Video sharing (conversa.onal video on IP)

•  Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision

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Limited adoption

Limited adoption

Limited adoption

Limited adoption

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Limited adoption

Limited adoption

Limited adoption

Limited adoption

Bypassed !

No traction

Too late …

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The Internet is the killer pla[orm

•  Mobile Internet access drives 3G data usage

•  Future business models an open ques.on –  Walled garden – too late ! –  Adver.sing ? –  Other 2-‐sided business

models ?

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Mobile Internet Access

•  For PC’s under restric.ve terms of service, e.g. no servers, no P2P, no subs.tu.on for private lines or frame relay

•  AT&T: 5GB @ $60/mo •  Verizon: dieo •  Sprint: dieo •  No US operator offers

flat rate unlimited plans

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iPhone glimmer of what’s possible

•  Controlled eco-‐system – Apps must meet unpublished Apple & AT&T requirements, e.g., VoIP over Wi-‐Fi, not 3G

•  Explosive growth in mobile broadband usage

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iPhone traffic

US data traffic

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US 3G performance

•  Novarum Inc. (1/2010) – Measurements in 36 ci.es (Anaheim, …, Boston, …, Philly, …, Raleigh, …, Tempe)

–  8-‐2007: 507/195 Kbps & 340 ms delay

–  12-‐2009: 1.5 Mbps down

•  Doubling < 24 months

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Increasing capacity

Operator Services

Femtocell

Wi-Fi

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Internet

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1.  Add Cellsites ($$$) 2.  Newer radios ($$) 3.  More backhaul ($$$)

4. Femtocells ($$) 5. Wi-Fi ($)

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Spectrum history

•  1920: Primi.ve radio receivers –  Needed to restrict who transmits

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Spectrum history


•  1927-‐ 1934: Origin of FCC, spectrum licensing –  Ensuing decades -‐ almost all spectrum assigned –  Three bands reserved for “junk” uses

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Spectrum history


•  1927-‐ 1934: Origin of FCC, spectrum licensing –  Ensuing decades -‐ almost all spectrum assigned –  Three bands reserved for “junk” uses

•  1985: FCC authorizes spread spectrum communica.ons in the ISM, or “junk” bands, i.e. –  900 MHz, 2.4 GHz, 5.8 GHz

Wi-‐Fi History 1985 FCC permits communica.ons in “junk bands” at 900 MHz, 2.4 GHz & 5.8 GHz

1988 -‐ 1997 IEEE bodies iterate; eventually publish first 802.11 spec Three alternate solu.ons for 1 Mbps opera.on with a 2 Mbps op.on

1999 802.11a – 54 Mbps at 5.8 GHz using OFDM modula.on

1999 802.11b – 11 Mbps at 2.4 GHz using DSSS modula.on

1999 Wireless Ethernet Compa.bility Alliance (WECA) formed – Focuses on interoperability and a cer.fica.on program

2001 802.11d – extends the spec for other regulatory domains (EU, Japan, etc.)

2003 802.11g – 54 Mbps at 2.4 GHz using OFDM modula.on

2003 WECA adopts new name: Wi-‐Fi Alliance

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2004 view of Wi-‐Fi market

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2004 view of Wi-‐Fi market

•  Rampant growth however…

•  Ar.cle in ‘The Economist’ warns Wi-‐Fi under threat:

•  WiMAX in wide area

•  WiMedia in home

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Addi.onal highlights •  1997: FCC authorizes Unlicensed Na.onal Informa.on Infrastructure

(U-‐NII) radio band providing 200 MHz more spectrum in 5 GHz band

•  2003: FCC adds 255 MHz to 5 GHZ bringing total spectrum to 555 MHz

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•  2003-‐2009: Task Group n works to drama.cally improve Wi-‐Fi performance, in part via MIMO and Beamforming

•  2007: 802.11n dray 2 products cer.fied by the Wi-‐Fi Alliance

•  2009: 802.11n specifica.on approved

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•  2003-‐2009: Task Group n works to drama.cally improve Wi-‐Fi performance, in part via MIMO and Beamforming

•  2007: 802.11n dray 2 products cer.fied by the Wi-‐Fi Alliance

•  2009: 802.11n specifica.on approved

In-‐Stat (Nov 09) •  Worldwide hotspots reach 245,000 venues in 2009 •  Hotspot connects increased in 2009 by 47 percent, bringing total worldwide 1.2 billion connects

•  Wi-‐Fi handset shipments grew 50%, 2007 to 2008 •  Wi-‐Fi-‐enabled entertainment device (cameras, gaming devices, and personal media players) shipments projected to increase from 108.8 million in 2009 to 177.3 million in 2013

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ABI Research (August 2009)

•  ABI projects 1 billion Wi-‐Fi chips in 2011 •  Global shipments of Wi-‐Fi-‐enabled cell phones to double between 2009 and 2011 – 144 million in 2009 to 300 million in 2011

•  90% of smart phones Wi-‐Fi capable by 2014

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Increasing capacity

Operator Services

Femtocell

Wi-Fi

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Internet

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1.  Add Cellsites ($$$) 2.  Newer radios ($$) 3.  More backhaul ($$$)

4. Femtocells ($$) 5. Wi-Fi ($)

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Femtocells: too liele, too late

•  Primary users of 3G/4G data also have Wi-‐Fi – Laptops, smart phones

•  Corporate IT prefers Wi-‐Fi they control •  Consumers deploying Wi-‐Fi anyway

– For PCs, for gaming, for home media – Pay extra to help carrier improve their network?

•  Femtocell’s only value may be voice coverage

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What’s next?

•  Wireless .pping point – 5 GHz becomes as valuable as 2.4 GHz or 700 MHz

– Spa.al reuse → incredible density increments

•  Wi-‐Fi leads the way – Leveraging Moore’s law and exis.ng 802.11n spec.

– Task Grp ac – Very high throughput <6GHz (2012?)  New biz ops!

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Spectrum Myth TV Spectrum is “beach front” spectrum

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Spectrum Myth TV Spectrum is “beach front” spectrum

•  Based on legacy technology, not physics! – Travels farther thru the air – No! – Thru windows – roughly the same – Goes thru masonry – yes, this is beeer …

Free space path loss

Seems to say more , more loss

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But this equation encapsulates two effects: ①  Actual path loss ②  Receiving antenna aperture (assumed to be ½ wavelength)


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But this equation encapsulates two effects: ①  Actual path loss ②  Receiving antenna aperture (assumed to be ½ wavelength)


5 GHz photons go just as far as 700 MHz photons !

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Refrac.on and reflec.ons

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Shorter wavelength - more reflections, refraction “MultiPath” “Ghosts” if a single receiver

MIMO: Mul.ple Input Mul.ple Output

•  Mul.ple paths improve link reliability and increase spectral efficiency (bps/Hz), range & direc.onality

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Rich Indoor MIMO Mul.path

Source: Fanny Mlinarsky, Octoscope

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Municipal Mul.path Environment

Source: Fanny Mlinarsky, Octoscope

Mul.ple channels per chip Like CPU cores …

•  2x2 MIMO – 2008 •  4x4 MIMO – 2010-‐11 then

•  8 radios, 16 radios?, … how to use silicon?

Be$er and be$er beam-‐forming !

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Intel

Fujitsu

AMD

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Beamforming •  Select among mul.ple predefined antenna elements

–  Widely used with single radios (2G, 3G, Wi-‐Fi – Vivato, Ruckus Wireless)

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•  Adap.ve antenna arrays –  Dynamically compute phase and amplitude for each antenna element

–  Adapts for desired signal while also reducing interference

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8 antenna elements spread over 3.5 λs, i.e. ~18 cm, or < 7.5” at 5.8 GHz

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8 antenna elements spread over 3.5 λs, i.e. ~18 cm, or < 7.5” at 5.8 GHz

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Beamforming

~2014: >300 Mbps Wi-Fi to ~1 Km at mass market prices ?

4x4 MIMO with 8-12 antenna elements

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Beamforming



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Beamforming



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Commercial beamforming Wi-‐Fi beams, before silicon support … •  Vivato (’02-‐’06)

–  Technical success, but expensive –  Connect with 11g clients up to 2 km

–  Vivato-‐to-‐Vivato up to 18 km

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Commercial beamforming Wi-‐Fi beams, before silicon support … •  Vivato (’02-‐’06)

–  Technical success, but expensive –  Connect with 11g clients up to 2 km

–  Vivato-‐to-‐Vivato up to 18 km

•  Ruckus Wireless (today) –  12 elements – selec.vely switched to

two channels on 2x2 silicon

–  Drama.cally outperforms conven.onal 2x2 systems

•  11n wireless networking solu.ons in silicon •  Founded 2006; customers include Netgear •  4x4 MIMO with beamforming

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TVWS – Beach-‐front Property?

•  MIMO antenna element separa.on >= ½ wavelength – 2.1 meters at 70 MHz – 21 cm at 700 MHz

•  But only – 2.5 cm for 5.8 GHz Wi-‐Fi

Wavion Networks

D-Link DAP-2553

Ruckus Wireless

Wi-‐Fi 3G / 4G

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Wi-‐Fi •  Sta.onary clients or pedestrian mo.on

3G / 4G •  Supports mobile use at auto speeds

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•  Data centric (VoIP an ayerthought)


•  Voice centric (voice revenues s.ll king)

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•  Data centric (VoIP an ayerthought)

•  Wide-‐open market, many vendors, many market segments, many customers


•  Voice centric (voice revenues s.ll king)

•  4-‐6 vendors, 1 applica.on, <700 customers

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Wi-‐Fi markets evolving

•  Well established in enterprises and on campus

•  Mesh products emerge to fill coverage gaps – Aruba Networks, BelAir Networks, Bluesocket, Cisco, Clearsite Communica.ons, Fire.de, Locust World, Meraki, Mesh Dynamics, Motorola, Nortel, Open-‐Mesh, Packet Hop, Ruckus Wireless, SkyPilot Networks, Strix and Tropos

•  Mesh node as bridge from outdoor to indoor

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Muni Wi-‐Fi

•  Wireless broadband access networks – Take 2; recovering from early Metro Wi-‐Fi

– Dozens of US ci.es now succeeding •  Ci.es bring real estate, look to save current $

– Communica.ons for police & other city services

•  But strong pressure for “free” in some form – 40% of APs are open (espc. Consumer APs)

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Varia.ons on Free

•  Retail business giveaway – Coffee shops, restaurants, hotels, retail – Harvard Sq. Business Associa.on

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Varia.ons on Free


•  Sponsorship – loca.ons, events By kumasawa

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Varia.ons on Free


•  Sponsorship – loca.ons, events •  Carrier supported

– e.g. Cablevision’s Op.mum Wi-‐Fi

By kumasawa

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More free Ad supported

•  Didn’t work in 2005; working now… – Costs way down; usage and interest up

•  Freerunr in UK (& NL, RS, ZA) – Splash screens, limited dura.on free periods, …

•  JiWire in US – Ad pla[orm for free Wi-‐Fi – Used by Microsoy Bing na.onwide Wi-‐Fi offer

•  Sputnik in US – Ad supported model growing

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100x mesh performance coming •  Wi-‐Fi mesh performance has been extremely limited

– Mul.-‐path limited link capacity & favored 2.4 GHz –  Single radios with omni antennas mean all links share one 20 MHz channel, so mesh capacity drops ~x2 per node

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100x mesh performance coming •  Wi-‐Fi mesh performance has been extremely limited

– Mul.-‐path limited link capacity & favored 2.4 GHz –  Single radios with omni antennas mean all links share one 20 MHz channel, so mesh capacity drops ~x2 per node

•  Pt-‐to-‐pt links = drama.c increase in mesh capacity –  Direc.onal antennas today; soyware beamforming soon

•  Mul.-‐radio mesh nodes –  Separate channels for each link; note: there are eleven 40 MHz channels available at 5 GHz

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Enterprise design adapted for BB

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ILEC price umbrella •  Cost of Internet transit @ urban IXPs

–  <$4 /Mbps /month (mul.-‐Gbps quan..es) –  <$9 /Mbps /month (<=100 Mbps)

•  Elsewhere, even 1 block away, very expensive –  T1 $299, 5Mbps $599, 10 Mbps $1299 /month –  This is $120-‐$200 /Mbps /month 20x-‐50x markup

•  Fosters wireless bypass – WISPs opera.ng 20%-‐50% under ILEC price umbrella

Wireless ISPs

•  > 2000 WISPs, in fast growing segment – Most use license-‐ exempt spectrum

– Mix of pre-‐WiMAX, WiMAX and, increasingly, Wi-‐Fi gear

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Wi-‐Fi for wireless broadband

•  WISPs already use license-‐exempt spectrum – Some.mes with a few licensed microwave links

•  11g & 11a, rapidly migra.ng to 11n technology – Performance advantage is significant

•  Drama.cally lower cost –  5x or more vs WiMAX or pre-‐WiMAX systems –  Increasing reliability, similar performance

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Ubiqui. targets Wireless ISPs

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Point-to-point $180-$600

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Point-to-point $180-$600

Point-to-multipoint ~$240 & $88

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Example Wi-‐Fi Pt-‐2-‐Pt Link Ubiquiti BULLET-M5-HP With 28dbi Grid Antenna 802.11n

Purchased through distribution:

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Community WISP, Inc.

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•  Wireless broadband Internet access for all of Brevard County

•  Served from 4 locations

•  900 MHz, 2.4 GHz & 5 GHz, i.e. all license-exempt spectrum

•  30/10 Mbps in many areas

•  Expanding into Volusia and Seminole counties

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Summary

•  Wi-‐Fi will dominate 3G/4G data offload – Triple play operators already bundling “free” Wi-‐Fi

– 3G/4G service providers will follow •  Eventually, high speed Wi-‐Fi will be the norm

– 3G/4G coverage, merely a fallback

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Summary

•  Wi-‐Fi will dominate 3G/4G data offload – Triple play operators already bundling “free” Wi-‐Fi

– 3G/4G service providers will follow •  Eventually, high speed Wi-‐Fi will be the norm

– 3G/4G coverage, merely a fallback

•  Wi-‐Fi fosters resurgence in independent ISPs – Wireless ISPs offering wireless broadband access

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Thank You

Brough Turner

[email protected] [email protected]

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Credits, References •  Image credits, beyond those noted in-‐line…

–  Office building facade: hep://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Beek100 –  Laptop icon: hep://www.flickr.com/photos/ichibod/ –  Microwave oven: hep://www.flickr.com/photos/code_mar.al/

•  Other useful references –  Novarum Inc. measurements: hep://www.novarum.com/publica.ons.php

–  NIST Electromagne.c Signal Aeenua.on in Construc.on Materials hep://fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/build97/PDF/b97123.pdf

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802.11n in-‐the-‐field •  Ken Biba:

–  The King is Dead, Long Live the King: 802.11n drama.cally improves Wi-‐Fi outdoors

–  Real world measurements show muni Wi-‐Fi networks outperform WiMAX and cellular

•  Tom’s Hardware –  Reviews Ruckus Wireless 11n access point with beamforming,

hep://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/beamforming-‐wifi-‐ruckus,2390.html

•  Net, net – it really works!