164’th IHC, March 2010
William Lapenta ,Naomi Surgiand Stephen Lord
Environmental Modeling CenterNOAA/NWS/NCEP
NCEP
Linking The HFIP Community With NCEP/EMC Operations
264’th IHC, March 2010
Outline
The EMC Mission
Tropical Cyclone Elements of the NCEP Model Production Suite Global Forecast & Data Assimilation System Regional Hurricane Forecasting Real-time Ocean Forecasting
HFIP Goals and Structure
Mapping NCEP/EMC Tropical Cyclone Modeling Priorities to HFIP/OFCM
Facilitation of R&D results into Operations
364’th IHC, March 2010
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction
CPC
HPC
SPC
SWPC
AWC
OPC
NHC
NCO
EMC
464’th IHC, March 2010
The EMC Mission…..
Develop and enhance numerical guidance– Test and improve NCEP’s numerical forecast
model systems via • Scientific upgrades• Tuning• Additional observations
Maintain operational model suite– The scientific correctness and integrity of
operational forecast modeling systems– Modify current operational system to adapt to
ever-present external changes
Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations
– Transform & integrate • Code• Algorithms• Techniques
– Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation
EMC location within the funnel
In response to operational requirements:
564’th IHC, March 2010
Global Data Assimilation and Forecast Systems (GDAS/GFS)
Horizontal RepresentationSpectral (spherical harmonic basis functions) with transformation to a Gaussian grid for calculation of nonlinear quantities and physics.
Vertical RepresentationSigma coordinate. Lorenz grid. Quadratic-conserving finite difference scheme by Arakawa and Mintz (1974).
Vertical Resolution64 unequally-spaced sigma levels. For a surface pressure of 1000 hPa, 15 levels are below 800 hPa, and 24 levels are above 100 hPa.
• 4 Cycles per day• T382(~35km) to 7.5 days• T190(~70km) to 16 days
664’th IHC, March 2010
NCEP’s Regional HurricaneNumerical Guidance
GFDL Movable nested Air-sea coupled Inner nest
9 km/42L Specialized vortex initialization, Upgraded with some GFS physics (2003,
2004)
HWRF added in 2007 Based on NMM Dynamic Core Movable, two-way nested grid 9km inner;
27km outer; 42 vertical layers; 75 x 75° domain)
Advanced physics (atmosphere/ocean fluxes; tested in GFDL - the "benchmark", NCEP GFS boundary layer and deep convection)
Advanced vortex initialization that uses GSI 3D-var (an advancement over GFDL bogus)
Princeton Ocean Model (POM) (with loop current initialization - same as GFDL)
764’th IHC, March 2010
7
• RTOFS Provides:– Routine estimation of the
ocean state [T, S, U, V, W, SSH]
– Daily 1 week forecast– 5 km coastal resolution– Initial and boundary
conditions for local model applications
• Wave Modeling:– NOAA Wavewatch III– Global and Regional – Unified model approach
Real Time Ocean Forecasting Systemand WAVEWATCH III
864’th IHC, March 2010
Unified NOAA approach to guide and accelerate improvements in forecasts, with emphasis on rapid intensity change, and reduction in uncertainty.
Responds to input from stakeholders, NSB, OFCM, and HIRWG reports.
Embraces strong collaboration with non-NOAA partners with objective to
transition research into operations.
HFIP Goals: Reduce average track error by 50% for Days 1 through 5.
Reduce average intensity error by 50% for Days 1 through 5.
Increase the probability of detection (POD) for rapid intensity change to 90% at Day 1 decreasing linearly to 60% at Day 5.
Decrease the false alarm ratio (FAR) for rapid intensity change to 10% for Day 1 increasing linearly to 30% at Day 5.
Extend the lead time for hurricane forecasts out to Day 7.
The NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
964’th IHC, March 2010
Placing HFIP into the Funnel….
5
3
5
4
Institutions
Ocean/Wave Model
Hurricane Observations
Applications Development and Diagnostics
Verification
HFIP Teams
5
10
13
10
Members
5
9
7
8
Institutions
8
5
12
8
Members
Data Assimilation/Vortex Initialization
Ensembles
Regional Model/Physics
Global Model/Physics
HFIP Teams
5
3
5
4
Institutions
Ocean/Wave Model
Hurricane Observations
Applications Development and Diagnostics
Verification
HFIP Teams
5
10
13
10
Members
5
9
7
8
Institutions
8
5
12
8
Members
Data Assimilation/Vortex Initialization
Ensembles
Regional Model/Physics
Global Model/Physics
HFIP Teams
Role of the Teams and Leads
Each year develop an overall plan for the team’s component of the HFIP Program Needs to be coordinated with:
Other team plans Across the various organizations (13 total)
Role of Team lead Provide summaries of progress Lead the development of the program plan for the
team Lead the coordination across teams and
organizations
1064’th IHC, March 2010
1) Improve performance of the HWRF regional system in support of TPC intensity forecasts {1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12} Data assimilation and vortex initialization (B1) Model physics (i.e., atm/ocean exchange) (B3) Model dynamics (B2)
2) Improvement of the GFS to support longer range track forecasts {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14} Modify GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL (B2, B3a, B3c)
• Detrainment from all levels (deep convection)• PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine
stratus) Increase model horizontal resolution (T382 [~35km] to T574 [~28km]) (B2)
3) Improve performance of RTOFS and WAVEWATCH III™ {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14} Waves as direct source to TKE in air and water (B3a, B3b) Assimilation of JASON 2 data (B3b)
NCEP/EMC HFIP FY10 Implementation Priorities
NOTE: Brackets are NHC/CPHC priority operational needsParentheses are model development research areas
1164’th IHC, March 2010
HWRF Development Areas {1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12} pressure-wind relationship initial conditions and data assimilation atmospheric physics coupling between atmosphere, ocean and wave components testing of high resolution HWRF configuration
Diagnostic capability to guide future operational model development {3, 6, 7, 9}
GDAS/GFS development {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14}
Implement a 1/12 degree global RTOFS based on HYCOM {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14}
Develop operational hurricane ensemble capability {1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 14}
NCEP/EMC HFIP FY10 & Beyond Development Priorities
NOTE: Brackets are NHC/CPHC priority operational needs
1264’th IHC, March 2010
NCEP Planned Hurricane Forecast System—Regional Component
1364’th IHC, March 2010
Process to Implement Major Upgradesto The NCEP Model Production Suite
EMC Change Control Board
•Scientific Integrity•Product Quality•EMC Mgmt Approval
Implementation Phase• SPA’s build NCO parallel from RFC’s
•30-day NCO parallelTest code stabilityTest dataflowProducts to NCEP Centers
and EMC code developers•NCEP Centers
Evaluate impactAssessments to NCEP OD
R&D and Pre-Implementation Phase
•30-day NCO parallel stable•NCEP centers approve
•Briefing to NCEP Director for final approval
Implementation•Generate RFC’s•Submit RFC’s to NCO
SystematicSystematicTestingTesting
1464’th IHC, March 2010
Apply Implementation Processes to GFS/GSI December 2009 Implementation…
Adding new observation data sources. Tropical storm pseudo sea-level pressure
obs NOAA19 hirs/4,AMSU-A, & MHS brightness
temp obs NOAA18 sbuv/2. Monitor N19 GOME, and
OMI ozone (no assimilation) RARS (currently only EARS) 1B data EUMETSAT-9 atm motion vectors
Implementing improved techniques in GSI analysis. Use uniform thinning mesh for brightness
temp data Improvements to assimilation of GPS RO
data (QC, retune ob errors, improved forward operator )
Add dry mass pressure constraint Merge GMAO & EMC codes for 4d-var
capability Update background error covariance Proper use of different spectral truncation
between background and analysis Benefits
Improved GFS tropical storm track & intensity forecasts
Small improvement in global forecast accuracy
1564’th IHC, March 2010
Time and Dedication for GFS/GSI December 2009 Implementation
17 months required to develop, test and implement
119 person months of effort (EMC, NCO, GFDL, TPC, SPC, HPC, AWC)
17 months of continuous cycles 4/day with 16 day forecasts retrospective/real-time testing conducted for GFS/GSI
500 HWRF and 600 GFDL TC/Hurricane cases simulated
1000 Node hours and 75 TB of disk consumed
1664’th IHC, March 2010
DTC
Purpose: To serve as a bridge between research and operations to facilitate the activities of both halves of the NWP Community
Research: functionally equivalent operational environment to test and evaluate new NWP methods over extended retrospective periods
Operational: benefits from DTC T&E of strengths and weaknesses of new NWP advances prior to consideration for operational implementation
ResearchCommunity
OperationalCommunity
New Science and Technology
Operational Codes
DTCNCAR RAL/MMMNOAA/ESRL/EMC
The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) & HFIP…..
EMC AFWA
TPC
1764’th IHC, March 2010
DTC Goals on Hurricanes
Facilitate transfer of research to operations by creating a framework for NCEP and the research community to collaborate
Support the community in using HWRF (the current NCEP operational hurricane model) HWRF physics into WRF V3.2—plan to use for FY11 implementation First HWRF Tutorial (Feb 24-26, 2010) EMC/MMM/DTC Hurricane Workshop (Feb 22-23, 2010)
Develop and maintain a hurricane testing and evaluation infrastructure at DTC Operational perspective and expertise in residence (N. Surgi) Share burden of pre-implementation testing assure integrity of code and evaluate new developments for potential
operational implementation
Hypothesis: Higher probability of successful R&D transition into NCEP Operations
1864’th IHC, March 2010
In Summary NCEP/EMC continues to build partnerships to
satisfy customer needs (It’s a NWS Support Center)
Tropical Cyclone Elements of the NCEP Model Production Suite Global Forecast & Data Assimilation System Regional Hurricane Forecasting Real-time Ocean Forecasting Sytem
NCEP/EMC providing TC modeling priorities and plans to the external community
Facilitation of R&D results into operations through the DTC