World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization
WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme and and
Initiatives in Support of Climate Risk Initiatives in Support of Climate Risk ManagementManagement
By By
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
Agenda
• Hydro-meteo hazards and link to climate
• About WMO
• WMO DRR Programme
• WMO Initiative in support of climate adaptation
WMO Mandate related to Natural Hazards
(Weather, Climate and Water)
Primary mandate for: Severe storms, tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons), storm surges, floods, cold spells, heat waves, cold waves, droughts,
volcanic ash transport, air pollution, Sand and dust storms, etc.
Contributing to: Forest fires, locust swarms, health epidemics, tsunami, etc…
Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate
Intensity
Frequency
Heatwaves
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Tropical Cyclones
Coastal Marine Hazards
Strong Wind
Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement
HealthHealth IndustryIndustry
Food Food securitysecurity
TransportTransport
EnergyEnergy
Urban areasUrban areas
Hazards’ intensityand frequencyare increasing
Exposure is increasing !
Need fordisaster riskmanagement
Leveraging WMO networks to improve DRR and climate risk management at national level WMO leverages global, regional, national
cooperation with national development to ensure development and availability of technical
capacities at the national level.
WMO: Coordinates an Operational Global Coordination Network for Hazard Detection and
Forecasting to Support Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems
Global Telecommunication System
Global Observing System
Coordinated Satellite System
Global Data Processing and Forecasting System
National Meteorological
&
Hydrological
Services
WMO: Coordinates an Operational Global Coordination Network for Hazard Detection
and Forecasting
Global Telecommunication SystemExchanges bulletins, forecasts, and other information
National Meteorological & Hydrological Services developand disseminate authoritativewarnings for the country
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
Government and civil defence
authorities
Media Generalpublic
Privatesector
Example: Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh
Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeStrategic Foundation
WMO Strategic Plan
2008-2011
Hyogo Framework for Action
2005-2015
WMO Strategic Goals WMO Strategic Goals
in Disaster Risk Reductionin Disaster Risk Reduction
WMO Action Plan in Disaster Risk Management
Risk TransferRisk Identification
Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends
Exposed assets & vulnerability
Risk quantification
PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems, emergency planning and response capacities
MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. building resilient infrastructure)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather Risk Management
Other emerging products
Risk Reduction
Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training
Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation
12
3
139 out of 187 Countries responded
24/5254 %
25/3474 %
10/1283 %
18/2282 %
14/1974 %
44/4892 %
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html
National DRR Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Mapping NMHSs’ Capacities, Gaps and Needs
National DRR Capacity Assessment Survey
(2006) Results (2/2)
Country
Category
Planning & Legislation
Infrastructure
Observation
ForecastingTelecom.
TechnicalCooperatio
n&
Capacities
Partnerships&
ConOps
Needs %
1 × × × ×Need for development along all aspects 12
2
Need for improvements along all aspects
42
Need for improvements
3
Guidance materials neededGenerally support other countries
26
Need for improvements
4
Self sufficient
Support other countries
20
1. Projects to Support Early Warning Systems
Identification of Good Practices
Documentation of Good Practices
Development of Guidelines for EWS
implementation
Implementation of EWS projects and
sharing of good practices
WMO Approach to Assist its Members in Strengthening Their
Early Warning Systems
Effective Early Warning Systems Require Coordination and Collaboration among
Various Stakeholders at National to Local Levels
Media
Academia and
Research
Other Ministries(e.g. health, agriculture,
environment, etc
Disaster Risk Management Agency
and ministry in chargeNational to local levels
Non-governmental organizations,
private sector, etc (e.g. Red Cross
and Red Crescent Societies)
Scientific and Technical Services
(e.g. Meteorological & Hydrological
Services
CoordinationCollaborations
Project TypesCountry Category
Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4
Modernisation of Meteorological and Hydrological Infrastructure
Technical Capacity Development of Meteorlogical and Hydrological Services
•Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
•Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)
•Sand and Dust Storm (SDS)
•Drought
•Storm Surge
•Heat Health
National EWS Partnerships & Concept of Operations with Disaster Risk Management Agencies
Guidelines and Documentation of Good practices
Strengthening of National EWS through National Projects
Project Types and Link with Country Categories
Strengthening of National Early Warning Systems
Projects Mapping
Technical Capacity Development of NMHS
Modernisation of NMHS infrastructures
Guidelines & Documentation of good practices in EWS
Technical Capacity Development of NMHS
Guidelines & Documentation of good practices in EWS (DRR)
National EWS Partnerships & Conops
Modernisation of NMHS infrastructures (WB/ISDR/UNDP/WMO)
Linking Humanitarian Agencies to operational network of Meteorlogical
Services and Regional Specialized Center to access official forecasts and warnings
(up to 10 days lead-time)
Communication channels with official and credible sources of forecasts and
warnings to be established.
Launching an Operational Project with Humanitarian Agencies (March 2009)
Communication and Dissemination
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
Government and civil defence
authorities
Media Generalpublic
Privatesector
Humanitarian agencies
New
2nd Multi Hazard Early Warning SymposiumMay 5-7, 2009 (Toulouse, France)
1. Discuss four “good practices” in early warning systems presented by a team of national experts from the countries
France Vigilance system Shanghai Emergency Preparedness System Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Cuba tropical cyclone early warning system
2. Draft the First Guidelines on “Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination and Cooperation”, and;
3. Recommendations on concrete initiatives to improve coordination and collaboration among NMHS and disaster risk management agencies for better early warning systems
2. Projects on Hazard Databases and Statistics
Number of NMHS Keeping Hazard Data Archives and Status
• Very few countries maintain impact databases
• Data archived are not standardised
• 90 % of NMHS indicated their need for guidelines and support in hazard analysis, mapping and statistics (WMO 2006 DRR survey)
TOP CONCERNS OF MEMBERS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 Data Archived Impacts data (loss of life + economic losses)
1. Hazard data and metadata
2. Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies
3. Capacity development and training
4. Demonstration projects in selected countries
To provide standardization guidelines for Meteorological, Hydrological and climatic-related hazards:
Hazard data and informationNeed to initiate systematic projects…
1. Flood hazard data and mapping guidelines (underway)
2. Drought assessment and mapping (underway)
3. Storm Surge hazard data and mapping (underway)
4. Other meteorological hazard data and mapping guidelines (to be initiated in 2009)
5. Tools to assess evolution of hazard trends in the future …
Hazard data and informationList of Projects
IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform
geographically
(IPCC, 2007)
Trends in heavy rainfall
Drou
ghts
Need for production of local climate information…
Highly Resource Intensive!
Trends in Frost and Heat Waves
WB/ISDR/WMO/UNDP Projects,
GRIP & Climate Risk Management (UNDP)
Other probabilistic Risk Assessment (WB)
Provide opportunities to implement hazard guidelines at the national level
3. Support of Weather Risk Management and Catastrophe
Insurance Markets
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Financial Risk Transfer Markets
• Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data
• Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, other value-added services
• Reliable, authoritative and timely data for contract design and settlement
• Forecasts for portfolio management and forward looking risk analysis
• Technical support and service delivery
First Step: Expert Meeting on Role of National Met Services to support Financial Risk Transfer Markets
Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters
• Participants:– World Bank, World Food Programme, Weather Risk Management Association,
8 largest Reinsurers
– 13 National Meteorological Services
– Reps. from climate research community
• Outcomes: – Raised Awareness within WMO and its network
– Discussed role of NMHS in supporting Financial risk transfer markets
– Discussed needs, challenges and emerging opportunities
– Discussed requirements of these markets and role of World Bank, WFP and bi-lateral donors
• All documents and final report available at:http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html
Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets (through partners)
Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia
Malawi Drought Risk Management
Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility
UK Flood CAT Bond
CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew
Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility
Pacific Risk Insurance Facility
Indian Agricultural Risk
European Agricultural Risk
Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts
Wind Power Risk Contracts
Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets
Weather Risk Management Markets (ART)
Heating Degree Day Contracts
Central Asia and Caucasus Disaster
What is Next?
1. Raise awareness among NMHS on the emergence, needs and opportunities
2. Develop a joint work plan with World Bank, WFP and WRMA, and present to WMO governing bodies for endorsement (2009 - 2010)
– National Capacity development projects Modernization of observing networks, Data Rescue Programmes, Data management and archiving systems, technical tools and methodologies
3. Facilitation of National Met Services participation and technical advice
WMO initiative to address the climate information challenge ….
Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change
Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change
National DevelopmentPolicies
National DevelopmentPoliciesDisaster Risk
Management
Disaster RiskManagement
Climate Information
Decision makers (all climate sensitive sectors)
Climate Service Providers
User InteractionMechanism
Global Framework for Climate Information
Goal:– the development of science-based climate
information for climate risk management and adaptation to climate variability and change throughout the world to support poverty alleviation and sustainable development.
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Operational climate forecasting and analysis systems
Climate research, modelling and tools
Observations, monitoring, and data management
User Sectors(Improved decisions and policies)
Water resource Management
Agriculture
TransportationDisaster Risk Management
Health
Tourism
Energy
Urban infrastructure development
NGOs
UN Agencies
Universities
Aid agencies
Media
Regional Development Institutions Private Sector
(Development and provision of climate services)Retrospective, real time and longer term, including seasonal to multi-decadal prediction
Science-based, and user-driven, based on requirement
User Interaction Mechanism
Network for Climate Services
Global Framework for Climate Services
Legacy of the World Climate Conference I, II, III
World Climate Conference-3Better climate information for a better future
Geneva, Switzerland31 August–4 September
2009
For more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. [email protected]
http://www.wmo.int/disasters
Thank You