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The Global Market for Oilseeds andVe etable Oils
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Presentation on 28 Nov at Oils & Fats Seminar of Olenex in Hamburg
Thomas Mielke, Executive Director of ISTA Mielke, Oil World,
27 Nov 2013
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Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals,
ISTA Mielke GmbH – publisher of OIL WORLD - was founded in 1958
ISTA = International STatistical Agricultural Information
Company Profi l and Services
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Independent, not involved in trading
Leading private authority for global research and market analyses for
oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals
unbiased information on the past and current global supply, demandand price developments as well as forecasts
27 Nov 2013
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Daily, weekly and monthly publications on www.oilworld.de
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20
22Palm Oil Sun Oil
Soya Oil 17 Oils/Fats
Annual Stocks / Usage Ratios (%)
17 OILS & FATSThe huge palm oil supplies of lastyear have been disposed o f.
World stocks of palm oil reacheda record 11.6 Mn T as o f end-Dec2012, thereof:
12
14
16
18a ays a . n ones a . n
With consumption picking upsharply, stocks early-Sept haddeclined by 1.8 Mn T in Malaysia& Indonesia combined
Palm oil output smaller than
27 Nov 2013
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99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14
8
10expected recently.Only moderate rise in worldstocks in Oct/Dec
5
6Supply Change Usage Change
Annual Growth in Mn T
PALM OIL: World Supplies & Usage
Mn T
The annual growth inworld palm oil suppliesand usage were at or nearrecord highs in 2012/13
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2
3
4But the growth will beslowing down in 2013/14
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0
1
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Energy Market Impacts:
Palm oi l pr ices (red line)traded largely sideways inMarch/Aug 2013
950
1000
1050Crude palm oil, cif Rott.
Brent crude oil, Brent/ICE
Daily Prices of Crude Palm Oil & Brent Oil (US-$/T)
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But palm oi l appreciatedby $ 90-120 in the 5 weeksto Nov 1 on smaller thanexpected production andstocks and big demand 800
850
900
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In Europe palm oil usagefor energy increased by0.9 Mn T in 2012/13
Prices f rom 3 Sept 2012 unti l 26 Nov 2013SepOct NovDecJa13FebMarAprMayJun Jly AugSepOct Nov
700
Arg. soya oi l pr ices fell to thelowest level in 32 months in
August 2013reducing the premium over palmoil to US $ 100 1200
1400
1600
750
900
1050
Daily Prices of Soya Oil & RBD Palm Olein (US-$/T)
Soya oil, Arg.fob
For vegetable oils most thebearishness already discounted
But much greater downwardpotential for oilmeal prices 400
600
800
1000
150
300
450
600RBD palm olein, Mal.fob
Soya oil Pre miums/discounts
27 Nov 2013
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Daily prices from 1 Jan 2010 until 26 Nov 2013
Ja10 Jun SepJa11 JunSepJa12 JunSep Ja13 Jun Nov
0 -150
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Soybean and Meal Prices Overvalued in Chicago
1350
1400
CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)
440
460
CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures (US$/ST)
1200
1250
1300
Jan 2014
May 2014340
360
380
400
420
Dec 2013
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Daily futures from 1 Aug 2013 until 26 Nov 2013 Aug'13 Sep Oct Nov
1150
Daily futures from 2 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013NovDecJan13 FebMarApr May JunJly Aug Sep Oct Nov
300320
50-day moving average
850
900
950CBOT: Daily Wheat Futures (c/bu)
600
650December 2013 position
CBOT: Daily Corn Futures (c/bu)
650
700
750
800
Dec 2013 position
50-day moving average
450
500
550
Daily futures
50-day moving average
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Daily futures 19 Oct 2012 until 26 Nov 2013OctNov DecJa13Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly AugSepOct Nov
600
Daily futures 1 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013Nov'12Ja'13 Feb Mar AprMay JunJly AugSep Oct Nov
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400
450
30
35Tota l and An nu al Change (Mn T)
10 Oi lseeds : World Crus hin gs
W orld Crushings
150
200
250
300
5
10
15
20
27 Nov 2013
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92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14
0
50
100
-10
-5
0 Annu al ch ange
80
90
100
Crush ings of 10 Oilseeds (Mn T)
China
China the world largestcrusher - Large and newcapacities (competitive)
30
4050
60
70
U.S.A.
EU-27
Brazil
- China has become anet exporter of soy meal
In Brazil the domesticcrushers lost marketshares to soybean
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October / September
95/96 97/98 99/10 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14
10
20n a
Arg ent ina
exporters
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10
12
14Change from Previous Season (in Mn T)
12 OILMEALS : World Disappearance
-2
0
2
4
6
8
So ameal
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-8
-6-12 Meals
600
7002011
2012
2013
Weekly Prices of Soya Pellets, 47% Arg., fob (US-$/T)
300
400
500
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Prices for 2013 until Nov 26Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jl y Aug Sep Oct No v Dec
200
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550600650700
with 10-year average Jan 1998 - Dec 2007 (in US -$/T)
Mont hly Pri ces of Soya Meal, 48%, Brazil
Soya pell ets, 48%, Brazil, cif Rott.
250300350400450500
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From Oc t 1997 unti l 26 Nov 2013
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 ' 10 '11 1 2 '13
100150 Average 1998-2007: US-$ 220
500
600
700
2 OILMEALS: Quarterly Average Prices (US-$/T)
200
300
400
So a ell, 48%,Brazil ,cif Rott
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J/M11 A/J11
J/S11O/D11
J/M12 A/J12
J/S12O/D12
J/M13 A/J13
J/S13O/D13
J/M14 A/J14
0
100Rape meal,34%,fob ex-mill Hmb
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650
700
750
3 OILSEEDS: Quarterly Average Prices (US-$/T)
500
550
600
Soybeans, U.S., cif Rotterdam
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J/M11 A/J11
J/S11O/D11
J/M12 A/J12
J/S12O/D12
J/M13 A/J13
J/S13O/D13
J/M14 A/J14
400
Sunseed, EU, cif Amsterdam
Rapeseed,Europe,00,cif Hamburg
Soybeans Dominate the Global Oilseed Market
e u ooof Soybeans &other Oilseeds
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2013/14 = 494.4 Mn T
India 8%
10 Oilseeds - - 494.4 Mn T
Global Production of 10 Oilseeds
Soybeans 58%
Groundnuts 6%
Copra & Palmkernels 4%
Other 3 Oilseeds 2%
C.I.S. 7%
Canada & U.S.A. 24%
Brazil 18%
Argenti na 12%
China 10%
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Rapeseed 14%
Sunflowerseed 8%
Cottonseed 9%Other ctri es 15%
EU-27 6%
42 0
46 0
50 0Product ion (Mn T)
Area (Mn ha )
10 Oilseeds: Worl d Area and Produc tio nIn past 25 years worldoilseed production more thandoubled (strong demand)
Rising acreage and yields
22 0
26 0
30 0
34 0
38 0 About half of the acreageincreased came from grains.
But this shift will slow down.
Agricu ltural land has becomea limiting factor worldwide,
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88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 0 4/0 5 0 7/0 8 10 /1 1 13/14
14 0
18 0
Land values more thandoubled in past 6 years
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35
4045
10 OILSEEDS: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T)
U.S.A.
In 13/14 USA and South
America account for:
- 80% of world exports of 10 oilseeds (131 Mn T)
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15
20
25
30
Oth. America
Brazil-95% of world soybeanexports (total 109 Mn T)
In 2020:Brazil + Arg will have toproduce at least 162-167
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89/90 92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14
0
5Canada
Australia
Ukraine 130 in 2013).Huge logistical needs !
20
25
17 Oils & Fats: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T)
Indonesia
Indonesia & Malaysia
have expor ted 43.5
Mn T of oils & fats in
2012/13,
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport10
15
Argentina
Malaysia. . thus account ing for
58% of total wor ldexports all oils &
fats (76 Mn) in 12/13
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90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/130
5U.S.A.
CanadaUkraine
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4
4,5Growing Domestic Supply Deficits Boost US Import Needs
U.S.A.: Exports & Imports of 17 Oils & Fats ( Mn T )
Exports
The US likely to further
boost net imports ofoils/ fats to a record
2.0 Mn T in 2013/14
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2
2,5
3
,
Imports
. . Part of the story is
that the domestic
crush industry
cannot compete
. . Thus 44% of the US
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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 91/92
93/94 95/96
97/9899/00
01/02 03/04
05/06 07/08
09/10 11/12
13/14
1
,
soybean crop wasrecently exported
6
Annual Change from 2012/13 ( in Mn T)
10 Oilseeds: Estimated Production Change in 2013/14Significant improvement inproduction in mostcountries in 2013/14
Big increases in Argentina,
0
2
4Brazil and the C.I.S.
India: Higher oilseed output
in 2013/14; slowdown ofveg. oil impor t needs; butsome crop damage
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EUC.I.S.
CanUSA
ArgBra
Austral iaIndia
China
-2
Major exception is China.Much higher import needs.
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808896 Crushings (Mn T)
Production (Mn T)
CHINA: Oilseed Output & Crushings
• Rising Chinese
import dependenceon declining dom-estic oilseed crops
243240485664
• Competition ofother crops
• Total agriculturalland shrinkin
27 Nov 2013
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91/9292/93
93/94 94/95
95/96 96/97
97/98 98/99
99/00 00/01
01/02 02/03
03/04 04/05
05/06 06/07
07/08 08/09
09/10 10/11
11/1212/13
13/14
08
60
70
CHINA: Imports of Oilseeds and Oils & Fats
Mn T
Oilseeds
CHINA: Rapidly risingimport requirements
Mainly of soybeans, butalso of rapeseed and
20
30
40
Oils & Fats
other agri commodities
Big jump in oilseed
impor ts by 9-10 Mn T islikely in 2013/14
China buildin stocks of
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92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14
0
10oilseeds, oils & grains
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13
50
60
70
China
Re st of world
Imports o f Soybeans (Mn T)
20
30
40
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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 90/91
91/9292/93
93/9494/95
95/9696/97
97/9898/99
99/00 00/01
01/02 02/03
03/04 04/05
05/06 06/07
07/08 08/09
09/1010/11
11/1212/13
13/14F0
120
140
Soybean Crop Trend
Mn T
The U.S.A.:This summer, droughtdamaged the US soya crop;but less than expected
40
60
80
100
U.S.A.
expected yields in US soya,confi rmed by USDA‘s Nov 7
upward revision by 3.0 Mn T
27 Nov 2013
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77/7880/81
83/8486/87
89/9092/93
95/9698/99
01/02 04/05
07/0810/11
13/14
0
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270
300 70and US Market Share (in %)
World Soybean Production (Mn T)
%Mn T
World Production
90
120
150
180
210
40
50
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81/82 87/88 94/95 99/00 05/06 13/14
0
3060
20
30U.S.A. Share in %
120
140
160
Soybean Crop TrendMn T
Growing dependence on South America - - but supply risksowing to weather, strikes,infrastructure shortages +political issues (Argentina !)
40
60
80
100
U.S.A.
With good weather from now,higher plantings should boost S.
Amer. soybean output to a new
high in early 2014 by 13–15 Mn T
In 2013/14 S. American soya crop70 Mn T above the US crop !
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77/7880/81
83/8486/87
89/9092/93
95/9698/99
01/02 04/05
07/0810/11
13/1
0
Argentina, Brazil & ParaguayFavorable weather + crop outlookin Brazil, Paraguay & Uruguay.In Argentina very good rains inNov, following drought in Aug/Oct
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SOYBEANS : Outpu t in 5 Sou th American Countries(Mn T)
13/14F 12/13 11/12 10/11 08/09Brazil . . . . 88.20* 81.60 67.92 75.32 57.17
Argentina 55.00* 48.50* 39.70* 49.20* 31.50*Paraguay . 9.30* 9.00* 4.04* 7.38* 4.15Bolivia . . . 2.70* 2.60 2.37 1.78* 1.62Uruguay. . 3.30* 3.20* 2.45* 1.80* 1.09*Total . . . . 158.50* 144.90 116.48 135.48 95.52
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In Brazil concern about crop losses from caterpillar infestation. The Bra
Government declared the state of emergency for Mato Grosso to
better control the disease (imports of non-author ized pesticides).
The Argentine weather uncertaintys one o e gges po en a
bullish factors on the supply side
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ARGENTINA : Soybe an Bal ance ( Mn T )March / Feb Mar / Nov
13/14F 12/13 11/12 2013F 2012 2011pen.s oc s . . . . . .
Crop . . . . . . 48.50* 39.70* 49.20* 48.50* 39.70* 49.20*Imports . . . . - * - .01 - * - .01
Exports . . . . 7.90* 6.34 10.40 7.73* 6.30 10.31Crushings . . 36.50* 31.40 37.83 29.93* 26.52 30.13
Other use . . 2.12* 2.04* 1.98* 1.47* 1.41* 1.41*
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End. stocks 5.20* 3.22* 3.30* 12.60* 8.76* 11.66*
9
10
11
Official exchange rate
Inofficial exchange rate
Daily Selling Price of Argentine Peso per US-$ Argentina:Reserved soybeanselling by farmers
Keeping soybeans
6
7
8
as a hedge againstinflation andcurrencydevaluation
27 Nov 2013
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Daily prices from Nov 2011 until 27 Nov 2013
Nov11Ja12 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja13 Mar May Jly Sep Nov
4
5
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Assuming normal weather
in South America: Ample oilseed suppl iesahead in 2013/14.
10 OILSEEDS: World Producti on (Mn T)
13/14F 12/13 11/12 10/11
Avg.Change
15 Years
to 12/13Soybeans . . . . 286.51* 267.16* 240.69 264.93 +3.5%
* * + soybeans, sunflowerseed,rapeseed and palmkernels
In 2013/14 worldproduction seen surgingby 28 Mn T and opening
. . . . . . . .Grdnuts,shelled 29.14* 28.01* 27.25 27.75 +2.1%Sunflowerseed 40.15* 35.58* 39.51 33.60 +2.8%Rapeseed . . . . 67.72* 63.92* 61.43 61.82 +4.5%
Sesameseed . . 3.93* 3.74* 3.83 3.83 +2.3%Palmkernels . . 14.63* 13.94* 13.29 12.54 +7.4%Copra . . . . . . . 5.33* 5.38* 5.26 4.80 +0.4%Linseed . . . . . . 2.27* 2.01* 2.13 1.82 -1.0%
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stocks up 8 Mn T,
boosting world suppliesby 36 Mn T - - > BEARISH !
Castorseed . . . 1.42* 1.33* 2.00 1.56 +0.7%Total. . . . . . . . 494.42* 466.05* 442.56 456.20 +3.3%
USA: Soybeanexports againfront-loaded inSept/Febr 2013/14
U.S.A. : Soybean Sup ply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t
13/14F 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10 08/09Op. stocks . 3.83 4.61 5.85 4.11 3.76 5.58
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport
Sharply higherexports in 2013/14
Frontloaded exp
US exp. 18.3 Mn T
rop . . . . . . . . . . . .Imports . . . . .60* 1.01 .46 .42 .43 .38
Exports . . . . 40.00* 35.95 37.12 40.87 40.83 34.84
Crushings . . 45.45* 46.11* 46.35* 44.85* 47.67 45.23Other use . . 2.74* 2.29* 2.42* 3.56* 3.00 2.88
End. stocks . 4.90* 3.83 4.61 5.85 4.11 3.76
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n ep ov vs .
85% exp. till Febr !
Stocks/usage 5.6% 4.5% 5.4% 6.6% 4.5% 4.5%
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CANADA : Supply & Demand of Canola ( Mn T ) A u g u s t / J u l y
13/14F 12/13 11/12 10/11
*
World production ofrapeseed & canolaset to increase by3.8 Mn T to a record
. . . . .Output . . . . . 16.50* 14.02* 14.61 13.10*Imports . . . . .12* .13 .10 .21
Exports . . . . 7.70* 7.27* 8.76* 7.20Crushings . . 7.10* 6.72 7.00 6.31Other use. . . .43* .30* .39* .36*
7.20
.
Biggest jump inCanada
Farmer selling?
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End.stocks. . 2.00* .61 .75* 2.19End.stocks. . .61 .75* 2.19
Record crops of sunfl.seed inthe EU (8.5 Mn T) and C.I.S.(20.2 Mn) this year
- -
Sunflowerseed and Oil
660
720
780
Weekly Oilseed Prices in the EU (US-$/T)
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport
.creating price discounts
In Sep/Nov sunseed pricesbelow soya & rapeseed
Black Sea sun oil started torecover- - now at US $ 910
480
540
600
Sunseed, EU
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World sun oil output +1.7 Mn
From Jan 2011 to 14 Nov 2013
Jan11 MarMay Jly SepNov Ja12Mar Ma y Jly Se p Nov Ja13 Ma rMa y Jly Se p Nov
360
Rapeseed, EU
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World consumption of alloils & fats more thandoubled in the latest 20years to 188 Mn T in 12/13
200palm oil + palmkernel oil
15 other oi ls & fats
World Consumption of 17 Oils & Fats
Mn T
Growing Dominance of Palm Oil & Palmkernel Oil Worldwide
Palm oi l and Pkernel oil:annual growth rates weremore than double of thoseof other oils & fats.
100
150
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worldwide for :- - 33% of consumption- - 63% of exports
98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14
0
45
50
55
60
17 Oils & Fats: Wor ld Productio n (Mn T)
Palm oil
Palm o il has becomethe most importantveg. oil wor ldwide
Palm oil production was
15
20
25
30
35
Rape o il
Soya oil
9 Other oils4 An imal Fats
times in the past 20 years
from 14 Mn T in 1993/94
and is estimated to reach59 Mn T in 2013/14,
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91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14
0
5
10Sun oil
Thereof: Malaysia 20 Mnand Indonesia 30 Mn T
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20
Rising Dependence on Palm Oil
3639424548
Soy, Rape, Sun Oils
4 Animal Fa ts
Palm O il
World Exports in Mn T
17 Oils & Fats
1997/98 - 2012/13: Palm oil exports (blue line)
almost quadrupled
1215182124273033 9 Other
Oils/Fats + 48%
In Oct /Sept 2013/14:
Palm oil exports (blue line)likely to rise to 45 Mn T
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97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14
036 Combined exports of soya,
sun & rapeseed oils (red) torecover to 21 Mn T
The Success Story of the past 30 Years Substantial growth in world production of palm oil
In 1980: 4.6 Mn T or 8% of 17 oils & fats
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport
.
In 2000: 21.9 Mn T or 19%
In 2010: 46.1 Mn T or 27% (only 6% of area)
In 2011: 50.8 Mn T or 28% (57% of exports)
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In 2012: 53.7 Mn T (plus 5.9 Mn T of Palmkern oil)
In 2013: 56.3 Mn T
In 2020 at least 78 Mn T of palm oil required
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SOYA OIL: Production in the past 30 Years
In 1980: 13.4 Mn T or 23% of 17 oils & fats
n : . n or
In 2000: 25.5 Mn T or 19%
In 2010: 40.2 Mn T or 23%
In 2011: 41.5 Mn T or 23%
27 Nov 2013
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In 2012: 41.7 Mn T or 22%
In 2013: 42.8 Mn T or 23%
Jan/Dec 2012 total : 183.9 Mn T
17 Oils & Fats: World Consumption, by Category
24.3 Mn (13.2%)
World consumption ofoils/fats reached 184 Mn Tin Jan/Dec 2012
8.8 Mn (4.8%)
. n .
17.1 Mn (9.3%)
Of which:• Food use 133.7 Mn T
• Biofuels – 24.3 Mn T
• Chemicals – 17.1 Mn T
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Food use Other (animal feed, etc.)
Chemicals Energy (biofuels)
• Other use – 8.8 Mn T
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22
New Biodiesel
Programme in Brazil:
B7 to be implementedprobably in March 2014
BRAZIL : Biod iesel Pro ductio n ( 1000 T )January / December
This will imply a rise of90-100 per month
Usage of soya oil for bio-diesel may rise 0.7 Mn Tin 2014,
Biodiesel 2014F 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
Production . . 3380* 2600* 2386 2347 2096 1418
Feedstock usedSoya oil. . . . 2700* 2020* 1794 1906 1738 1098Tallow . . . . . 505* 420* 410 315 266 225Cotton oil . . . 90* 75* 109 86 50 62
* *
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requiring sharply highersoybean crush
Bearish for meal
. .
ARGENTIN A : Soya Oil Bal an ce (1000 T )January / December
2014F 2013F 2012 2011 2010 2009Open. stocks . . . 260* 267* 515* 377* 300* 430*Produc tion . . . . . 7373* 6722* 6349 7114 7000 5772Exports . . . . . . . 5000* 4480* 4031 4378 4941 4560
Consumption . . . 2270* 2249* 2567* 2597* 1982* 1342*of which for biodiesel . . . . . 1900* 2104* 2455 2427 1815 1179
electricity . . . . 200* - * - - - -other use(a). . . 170* 145* 112*(b ) 170* 167* 163*
* * * * * *
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(a) Mainly food.(b) More sun oil used for food.
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23
1 801 95
1 21 3
T o t a l U s a g e a n d A n n u a l C h a n g e (M n T )1 7 O i l s & F at s : W o r l d D i s ap p e ar an c eDemand Growth
doubled in past 10years (up 62 Mn T)
Rapidly Rising World Consumption of Oils & Fats
7 59 0
1 051 201 351 50
4567891 0
A n n u a l C h an g e
W o r l d D i s ap p e a r a n c e
biofuels population income
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8 8/ 89 9 1/ 92 9 4/ 95 9 7/ 98 0 0 /0 1 03 /0 4 06 /0 7 0 9 /1 0 1 3/ 140
1 53 04 5
0123Growth in biodiesel
accelerated in 2013
We at Oil World forecastan increase in globalconsumption of 17oils & fats by 6.7 Mn T
17 OILS & FATS: Consump tion Chan ge (in Mn T)O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
13/14 F 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10
EU-27. . . . . . . -0.20 * +0.26 -0.33 -0.87 +0.93
U.S.A. . . . . . . . +0.27 * +0.49 +1.19 +0.90 -0.13
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport
Sharply higher usage forbiodiesel in Brazil
Argentina . . . . +0.35 * -0.93 +0.53 +0.55 +0.79
Brazil . . . . . . . +0.76 * +0.04 +0.15 +0.60 +0.88
China, PR . . . +1.08 * +1.09 +1.04 +1.09 +1.38
India . . . . . . . . +0.83 * +0.86 +0.75 +0.48 +0.73
Indonesia . . . +1.13 * +0.95 +0.99 +1.02 +0.60
Malaysia . . . . +0.14 * +0.19 -0.11 +0.08 -0.10
+ * + + + +
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w ng ac or n ones a . . . . . . . . . . .World . . . . . . . +6.73 * +5.06 +6.79 +6.26 +7.21
8/16/2019 World Vegetable Oil Outlook
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24
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4
5
Palm Oil Soya Oil
Sun Oil Rape Oil
Change on Year in Mn T
World Production of 4 Major Oils
0
1
2
3
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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
-2
-1
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25
Soya oil futures areundervalued on theCBOTrelative to the worldmarket
51
5355
CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futu res (c/lb)
[email protected], [email protected]
41
43
45
47
Dec 2013
50-day moving average
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Daily futures from 2 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013Nov DecJan13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov
37
39
900
950
1000
200
400
600Daily Prices of Soya Oil and Basis vs. CBOT Futures
US-$/T
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport750
800
850
-400
-200
0
points versus CBOT
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Daily prices and basis from 3 June until 26 Nov 2013
Jun13 Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov
650 -800
-Soya oil, fob Argentina (y1)
Daily basis vs. CBOT soya oil futures (y2)
8/16/2019 World Vegetable Oil Outlook
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26
925
950
Daily Prices o f 2 Oils (in US-$/T)
Soya oil, fob Argentina
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport
850
875
900
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Daily pr ices from 1 Aug 2013 until 26 Nov 2013
Aug 1 Aug15 Sep 2 Sep16Sep26 Oct17 Nov 1 Nov26
825
Sun oil, fob Black Sea
1350
1450
1550
Coconut oil, cif Rott.
Crude palm oil, cif Rott.
Daily Prices of 2 Oils (US-$/T)
Coconut oil prices muchtoo high at US $ 1450 in2nd week of Nov
Demand res onse to cur-
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport
950
1050
1150rent huge price premiumshigher than the lossesdone by the terribletyphoon Haiyan
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Daily prices from 1 March 2013 till 26 Nov 2013Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov
750
8/16/2019 World Vegetable Oil Outlook
27/29
27
8
10Production Demand
Change From Year Ago in Mn T
17 OILS & FATS: Production & Demand
2
4
6
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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
00/01 01/02
02/03 03/04
04/05 05/06
06/07 07/08
08/09 09/10
10/1111/12
12/1313/14
0
8
10Production Ending stocks
Change From Year Ago in Mn T
17 OILS & FATS: Production & End'g StocksWorld production of oils &fats is likely to rise fasterthan consumption incoming months, mainly onaccount of sun oil andpalm oil.
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow atthe airport
2
4
6In Oct/Dec 2013 the excessof production over demand
will lead to a recovery inworld stocks of all oils &fats
Likel to result in some
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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
-2
price pressure in the nearterm.
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28
20222426
11
12
1314
17 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage
Stocks/Usage (%)Stocks (Mn T)
468
10121416
6
7
8
9
10
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E n d - S e p t e m b e r
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
02
4
1200
1400
1600
Palm oil, crude cif Rott.
Soya oil, Dutch fob ex-mill
Soya Oil & Palm Oil: Monthly Prices (US-$/MT)
In Europe palm oilestablished a low of US $776 in Dec 2012, endingits price cycle after 48months
200
400
600
800
e a es ow was mucabove those of precedingcycles. But veg.oil prices
moved to a higherplateau since 2007.
Weakness in crudemineral oil prices and
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Monthly prices from Jan 1972 until 26 Nov 2013
72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 '130
slow down of biodieselproduction (e.g. USA) arepotential bearish factors
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