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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 3, 2012
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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment
as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
• Romney vs. Obama
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• A review of the Texas Senate Primary Runoff.
• An analysis of the July jobs report.
• A look at the pace of the U.S. economic recovery relative to similar recoveries in other
countries.
• An examination of the differences between the Obama administration’s GDP forecast and the
IMF’s projections.
• The amount of taxes owed by each U.S. Olympic medal winner.
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Weekly Summary
• The Texas Tea Party flexed its muscle with Ted Cruz’s win over establishment candidate David
Dewhurst in the Texas Senate Primary Runoff (pg. 8).
• While it is encouraging that the number of jobs created in July increased, 163,000 new jobs is
meager relative to what is needed to improve the economy (pg. 10).
o The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% in July, which is the 42nd consecutive month of
unemployment higher than 8%.
o If the labor force participation rate was as high as when Obama took office, today’s
unemployment rate would be 11.0%.
• The U.S. recovery is the weakest recovery among countries that have suffered similar types of
recessions (pg. 11).
• The Obama Administration’s GDP growth forecasts differ from the IMF’s projections (pg. 12).
o The difference between the two forecasts is $1.5 trillion, the size of the South Korean
economy.
• U.S. Olympians must pay an income tax on the winnings earned for every medal (pg. 14).
o After years of hard work and dedication, US Olympians are rewarded for their world class
performances with a 35% tax on the prize money for bringing home medals.
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Less than one-third of Americans continue to feel as though the nation is on the right track.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Month Ago One Year Ago
Right Direction 30% 27%
Wrong Track 62% 66%
29% 27% 29% 31% 31% 30%
28% 27%
17% 19%
31% 30% 32%
47%
66% 62%
64% 63% 64% 66% 64%
77% 74%
61% 62% 62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-1
0
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct-
10
Nov-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
Nov-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-1
2
Direction of the Country
Right Direction Wrong Track
2010 Election
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Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 15th consecutive month.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 47% 47%
Disapprove 49% 50%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
47% 46%
49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
50% 49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
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$50,735
$139,686
$15,934,578,894,158
The national debt steadily approaches $16 Trillion.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
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41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
41% 43% 41% 41%
46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%
41% 46%
43% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
Republicans have held a lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot for over 5 months.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
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WPA client Ted Cruz won a resounding victory over David Dewhurst in the Texas Senate Primary Runoff. WPA models accurately predicted the margin of victory and the total turnout.
57%
43%
14% 15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ted Cruz David Dewhurst Margin WPA Predicted Margin
Final Results of the Texas Senate Primary Runoff
Source: Texas Secretary of State
1.11 1.03
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
1 1.2
Turnout WPA Predicted Turnout
Total Turnout of Texas Senate Primary Runoff
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Only 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
53%
40%
2010 Election
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While it is encouraging that the number of jobs created in July increased, 163,000 new jobs is meager relative to what is needed for real economic recovery. The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% in July, which is the 42nd consecutive month of unemployment higher than 8%. If the labor force participation was as high as when Obama took office, today’s unemployment rate would be 11.0%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
125,000 =
Number of new
jobs needed to
keep pace with
population
growth
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
July 2012 8.3%
87,000 64,000
163,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
May June July
Jobs Created by Month
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The US recovery is the weakest in the world. Since 1970 Japan, Sweden, and Finland all experienced a recession and a financial crisis. Yet the US has the slowest recovery among these countries with similar economic downturns.
Source: JPMorgan and the American Enterprise Institute
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The Obama administration’s GDP growth forecasts differ from the IMF’s projections. This difference over 5 years is $1.5 trillion, which is the size of the South Korean economy.
2.3%
2.7%
3.5%
4.1% 4.0% 3.8%
2.0%
2.3%
2.8%
3.3% 3.4% 3.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US GDP Growth Forecasts for Next 5 Years
Obama GDP Growth Forecast IMF GDP Growth Forecast
Source: The American Enterprise Institute
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The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final three months of the election cycle.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49%
47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 46%
46% 43%
45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
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U.S. Olympians must pay an income tax on their winnings for every medal. After years of hard work and dedication, U.S. Olympians are rewarded for their world class performances with a 35% tax.
$8,986
$5,385
$3,502
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
Gold Silver Bronze
Taxes owed for each Medal earned
Source: Americans for Tax Reform
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For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
E-mail:
Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300
Matt Gammon Vice President
202.470.6300