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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief May 25, 2012
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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• A look at the Democratic primaries in Kentucky, West Virginia, and Arkansas.
• The electoral implications of the administration's war on coal.
• The results of a major Obama ad campaign against a perceived Romney vulnerability: Bain
Capital.
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Weekly Summary
President Obama encountered some mild trouble as rural Democrats in Kentucky and
Arkansas turned out in large numbers to vote for anyone on the Democratic ticket but
him.
On the other end of the economic spectrum, a major ad campaign against private equity
firm Bain Capital backfired as numerous well known Democrats came out in support of
the company, alarmed at the hostile tone the administration took toward a private
company in political advertisements.
The president’s image remains split and a majority of Americans disapprove of how he is
handling the most important issue to them: the economy.
While some prominent Democrats advance racism as an explanation for Obama’s
embarrassing, but ultimately transitory difficulty among Democrats in Appalachia, there
are less strained explanations for why Obama is struggling among voters who formed a
core component of Hilary Clinton’s base. The administration’s hostility toward coal
appears to be putting some of the top coal producing, and coincidentally swing, states
into serious contention.
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Americans remain unhappy with the direction of the country.
Source: Real Clear Politics
36%
29% 29%
20% 18%
30% 34% 34%
57%
63% 63%
75%
64% 60% 59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Direction of the County
Approve Disapprove
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Americans are deeply divided on the President’s performance.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 49% 48%
Disapprove 48% 47%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49% 49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
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$50,201
$138,530
$15,743,180,165,125
The national debt has increased $18,956,230,001 this week.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
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41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
41% 44%
46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%
41% 46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
Republicans maintain a lead on the generic congressional ballot.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
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A majority of Americans continue to disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
53%
40%
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Unemployment remains above 8%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is unadjusted
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
April, 2012 8.1%
7.00%7.50%8.00%8.50%9.00%9.50%
10.00%10.50%11.00%11.50%
Gallup Data
8.2%
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Obama has a slight edge over Romney, though he remains under 50%.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46%
46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
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Obama’s first major ad campaign against Romney fell flat as Democrats quickly distanced themselves from the Administration’s sharply critical attack of the private equity firm.
Cory Booker
• “I’m not about to sit here and indict private equity”
Harold Ford Jr.
• “Private equity is not a bad thing”
Ed Rendell
• “I think [the attacks] are very disappointing”
Deval Patrick
• “[Bain Capital is] not a bad company”
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On the other end of the spectrum, Obama ran into trouble in Appalachia, as Democrats in Kentucky, Arkansas, and West Virginia showed that they were far from united behind the party ticket.
58% 59% 57%
42% 41% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Kentucky Arkansas West Virginia
Not-Obama
Barack Obama
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Six states the Obama carried in 2008 are among the key 2012 swing states. These states are also some of the top coal producers in the nation. The recent election results in the Democratic primaries in Kentucky and West Virginia do not speak well for turnout among blue collar Democrats in Ohio and Pennsylvania, both of whom have seen state governments switch to Republican since Obama took office.
Source: RealClear Politics Hat Tip: Moe Lane, Red State
2008 Obama
State
Most Recent Public
Poll
Obama Romney
Colorado 47% 47%
Indiana 40% 49%
Ohio 48% 42%
Pennsylvania 47% 41%
Virginia 48% 44%
2008 Results
16 Top Coal Producing States
Energy Policy Electoral Implications
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For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
E-mail:
Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300
