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Macroeconomic Scenario
March 9, 2012
1
2
Index
1. International Outlook
2. Domestic Outlook
Europe: new developments, more of the same?
3
1. The approval of the new aid package for Greece confirms our
perception:
� The European authorities’ strategy is to try and postpone
any potential collapse of the Euro Zone, until such time as
the financial system and the global economy can absorb
the costs of an event of this type in a “more orderly way;
2. And it is based on this perception that we are maintaining our
basic scenario of high volatility, although without any collapse
in the Euro Zone in the short term;
1.
2.
Europe: new developments, more of the same?
4
However, each day it becomes clearer that even with the European
Central Bank’s more aggressive actions (which have reduced the
risk of a banking crisis) the major question from this point onward
is how to actually get the region back on to a path of economic
growth;
However, we remain convinced that Greek is likely to leave the
Euro Zone at some later point;
Our perception is that the Northern European countries will try
and draw a line of defense around Portugal and Ireland.
3.
4.
5.
ECB’s Financing Operations
5
ECB’s offer of three year
financing (in billion Euros)
Credit growth(month versus same month year before – %)
Source: ECB. Produced by: MB Associados.
(800 banks) (523 banks)
-0,2
0,50,4
-9
0
9
18
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
To the government
To other sectors
Total
530489
500
283
29/02 22/12
Funds borrowed Market's expectation
Central Banks – Asset growth
6
Source: Central Bank. Produced by: Central Bank
US$ 4.6 trillion (variation of 112%)
Total growth in the assets of the FED, ECB, BoJ and the BoE between 2008 and 2012
QE1 and
other FED
operations
US
$ B
ilio
ns
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) - Industry
Source: Bloomberg/PMI Markit Survey. Produced by: MB Associados. N.B.: scores above 50 indicate growth and below this level contraction.
Germany France
Italy United Kingdom
50,0
30
45
60
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
51,2
30
50
70
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
47,8
30
46
62
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
50,2
30
50
70
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) - Services
Germany France
Italy United Kingdom
52,8
40
52
64
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
50,0
38
48
58
68
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
44,1
35
48
61
53,8
35
50
65
Source: Bloomberg/PMI Markit Survey. Produced by: MB Associados. N.B.: scores above 50 indicate growth and below this level contraction.
USA: economy continues to recover
9
1. Most of the economic activity figures for the 1st two months
continue to come as a positive surprise;
Positive revision of the growth figures for income, salaries and
the savings rate for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2011;
� Could the FED postpone further quantitative easing?
In this scenario, the dollar is likely to appreciate against the
Euro until the end of the year, and could get close to a level of
1.20 – 1.25;
Significant risk of a hike in petroleum and gasoline prices which
is partly offset by the renewal of the US automobile fleet
(greater energy efficiency);
1.
2.
3.
4.
USA: Revisions in the growth of income, salaries and the savings rate
10
0,8
2,6
3,2 3,2
0
3
6
9
12
2Q/10 4Q/10 2Q/11 4Q/11
Previous
Current
1,54,0
6,65,5
0
3
6
9
12
2Q/10 4Q/10 2Q/11 4Q/11
Previous
Current
3,93,7
4,6 4,5
3
4
5
6
2Q/10 4Q/10 2Q/11 4Q/11
Previous
Current
Income (quarterly annualized var. - %) Salaries (quarterly annualized var. - %)
Savings(% of disposable
income)
Source: BEA. Produced by: MB Associados.
USA: Industrial Activity Index
11
Source: Fed Richmond and Fed Philadelphia. Produced by: MB Associados. (positive values indicate growth)
*Industrial activity in the states of Pennsylvania, Delaware and part of New Jersey.
*Industrial activity in the states of Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, the District of Columbia and part of West Virginia
Richmond Fed * Philadelphia Fed *
20,0
-50
-30
-10
10
30
Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12
10,2
-50
-25
0
25
50
Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12
USA: Industrial Activity Index
12
Source: Fed Dallas and Fed Chicago. Produced by: MB Associados.
Dallas Fed Chicago PMI Fed
11,2
-45
-25
-5
15
35
Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12
64,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
Feb-03 Feb-06 Feb-09 Feb-12
ISM: Industry and Services
13
57,30
52,40
30
40
50
60
Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12
ISM- Non Manufacturing
ISM- Manufacturing
Source: Institute od Supply ManagementPrepared by: MB Associados.
Note: Above 50 indicates expansion and below contraction.
USA: Domestic vehicle sales
14
11,7
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
15,0
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Seasonally adjusted and annualized figures – millions of units
Source: Bloomberg - Production: MB Associados
USA: Domestic sales of vehicles by the major automobile companies
15
8,09,3
29,1
-50,0
-35,0
-20,0
-5,0
10,0
25,0
Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12
GM Ford Chrysler
Cumulative growth in the last 12 months - %
Source: Bloomberg - Production: MB Associados
USA: Growth in consumer credit
16
17,8
-30
-10
10
30
Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12
Absolute variation in relation to the previous month
Source: Federal Reserve. Produced by: MB Associados.
USA: New employment insurance requests
17
351356
340
380
420
460
500
Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
New requests Avarage*
Source: Department of Labour. Production: MB Associados. * Moving 4-week average
Thousands of people
USA: creation of new job positions (ADP)
18
216
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Absolute Variation in terms of thousands of people
Source: ADP. Produced by: MB Associados. Note ADP: Creation of new job positions in the private sector
USA: Creation of new job positions (ADP)
Source: ADP. Produced by: MB Associados.
Small
Large
Medium
10889
-31
-350
-175
0
175
Feb-04 Feb-08 Feb-12
8851
-46
-400
-200
0
200
Feb-04 Feb-08 Feb-12
203
-32
-150
-75
0
75
Feb-04 Feb-08 Feb-12
Increase in petroleum prices: will it disrupt the US recovery?
20
Price of Brent and WTI type
petroleum (US$ barrel)
Price of gasoline at the pump
(US$/barrel)
Source: Bloomberg. Produced by: MB Associados.
124,9
106,0
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
09/09/11 09/12/11 09/03/12
3,79
2,6
2,9
3,2
3,5
3,8
4,1
5/3/10 5/3/11 5/3/12
IEA Projections suggest tight oil market
21
Balance Supply and Demand (mb/d)
OPEC production required to
meet the demand:
30 mb/d (*)
OPEC Production (mb/d)
Source: IEA (Feb/12 Report). (*) Excluding OPEC production
NGLs of 6.3 mb/d. Projected demand based on estimated global
growth of 3.3% in 2012.
Produced by: MB Associados.
30,7
30,830,9
nov/11 dez/11 jan/12
Idle capacity OPEC (mb/d)
2011 2012 P
Demand 89,1 89,9
Supply 88,5
Non-OPEC 52,7 53,6
OPEC 35,8 - 2,00,4
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,2
0,1
0,1
0,1
Saudi Arabia
Nigeria
Iraq
Kuwait
Angola
UAE
Qatar
Venezuela
Iran
Total idle
capacity:
3.7 mb/d
Non-OPEC supply in the countries outside the OECD
22
Non-OPEC production
Countries outside the OECD
(mb/d)
Source: IEA (February 12 Report). Produced by: MB Associados.
Greatest absolute deviations
regarding that forecast for
2011 (in mb/d)
30,5
27
30
32
2005 2007 2009 2011
Actual Production
January Forecasts
29,8
0,01
-0,07
-0,09
-0,11
-0,14
-0,27
Europe
Middle East
FSU(**)
Africa
Latin America
Asia
Conflicts in the Middle East and Low Stocks: pressure on prices
23
Production of selected
countries (mb/d)Change in OECD Stocks
(in mb/d)
(*) Production should be in excess of 1 mb/d in 2012.
Source: IEA (February 10 report). Produced by: MB Associados.
3,6
2,7
2,2
0,7
0,5
0,3
Iran
Iraq
Nigeria
Egypt
Libya (*)
Syria
Total:
9.9 mb/d
4,2
-5,8
-1,7
7,4
-9,1
-1,8
Petroleum Petroleum by-
products
Total
Jan-nov/10
Jan-nov/11
USA
� Shale oil and gas exploration
has allowed the USA to become
a net exporter of petroleum by-
products;
� In addition to this, the country’s
energy dependence is
diminishing. In 2011, petroleum
imports came to a figure of
about 9 mb/d;
Observations about the petroleum and petroleum by-products markets: USA and Brazil
24
Brazil
� While in Brazil, every increase in
demand for petroleum by-
products has to be met by
imports;Petroleum and Petroleum By-
products balance (in US$ billion)
Source: Cbie and UBS. Produced by: MB Associados.
25
Index
1. International Outlook
2. Domestic Outlook
No surprises regarding the GDP results for the 4Q11
26
GDP from the Demand sideGrowth in relation to the preceding
quarter - %
GDP and Sub-sectorsGrowth in the 4Q11 in relation to the
preceding quarter - %
Source: IBGE. Produced by: MB Associados. (*) GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation.
0,5
2,0
1,1
2,5
5,4
-0,1
-0,8-0,4
1,9
-0,5
1,1
0,4 0,2
1,8
2,6
Household
Consumption
Gov.
Consumption
Investiment Exports Imports
II III IV
-2,5
0,1
0,1
0,3
0,3
0,5
0,6
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,4
1,8
Transformation Industry
Transport and Storage
Prod.and Distr. of Eletricity
Public Administration
GDP
Other Services
Information Services
Real State Services and Rent
Commerce
Civil Construction
Agrobusiness
Finantial Services
Mineral Extraction Industry
Change in industry’s and sub-sectors’ percentage share of GDP
27
27,3
17,2
5,4
1,6
27,8
15,4
5,83,6
Industry Manufacturing Civil Construction Mineral Extractive
Average 2000/2001 Average 2010/2011
% of GDP at basic prices 2000/2011
Source: IBGE. Produced by: MB Associados. (*) percentage share of electricity, gas and water producers and distributors remained
stable at 3.2%.
Investment Rate and Gross Savings Rate
28
19,3
17,2
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2002 2005 2008 2011
Investment Saving
Source: Ibge. Prepared by: MB Associados.
% of GDP
PAC: percentage of the Central Government’s expenditure and of GDP (%)
29
3,9
1,1
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11
% of government expenditure % of GDP
Source: STN. Prepared by: MB Associados.
GDP – % growth
30
GDP at market prices 2,7 3,5
Production
Agriculture 3,9 2,8
Industry 1,6 3,1
Mineral Extractive 3,2 2,9
Transformation 0,1 1,4
Construction 3,6 5,3
Services 2,7 3,3
Expenditure
Government Consumption 1,9 2,1
Household Consumption 4,1 5,1
Investment 4,7 7,3
Exports 4,5 6,0
Imports 9,7 13,5Source: IBGE. Prepared by MB Associados.
2011 F 2012 F
Vehicle Production(variation Jan-Feb/12 vis-à-vis Jan-Feb/11 - %)
Change in the vehicle market
Vehicle Licensing Figures(variation Jan-Feb/12 vis-à-vis Jan-Feb/11 - %)
Source: Anfavea and Fenabrave. Produced by: MB Associados. Note: Stocks of trucks as at Feb/12 totaled 30 thousand units, which is equal
to almost two months’ production based on the monthly average for 2011.
-16
-18
-20
-47
-50
Light
Commercial
Vehicles
Automobiles
Total
Buses
Trucks
-4,5 -4,1
-0,5 -0,2
0,5
3,2
Road EquipmentTrucksMotorbikesAutomobilesLight Commercial VehiclesBuses
Total: 0 %
Anfavea: total stocks (factory and retail)
32
3636
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Total Inventories
6-month moving average
Source: Anfavea. Prepared by: MB Associados.
Inventories (in days)
Anfavea: production and imports
33
300
440
580
720
860
1.000
2.600
2.800
3.000
3.200
3.400
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Production Imports
Source: Anfavea. Prepared by: MB Associados.
12 month sum - in thousands
Production
Imports
Industrial Production(seasonally adjusted figures – index 2002=100)
Change in Industrial Production
Industrial Prod. by Usage Category(monthly variation, seasonally adjusted figures - %)
Source: IBGE. Produced by: MB Associados.
124,2
103
118
133
Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
Industry
Annual average
General Industry -2,1
Capital Goods -16,0
Intermediate Goods -2,9
Consumer Goods -0,1
Durable -1,9
Non-durable 0,7
Categories of useJan-12
Dec-11
Diffusion index of growth of industrial production (in %)
46,1%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Source: Bacen. Prepared by: MB Associados.
Note: calculated with the 76 sub-sectors of monthly physical industrial production of the IBGE and with the growth of the same month of the
previous year.
Industrial production by sub-setors (variation Jan/12 versus Jan/11 - %)
Source: IBGE. Produced by: MB Associados.
7,76,26,2
4,74,64,2
3,22,11,81,71,5
0,40,0
-0,4-2,8
-3,4-3,8-4,1
-4,5-5,6-5,7-5,9
-7,2-8,3
-10,0-19,4
-24,8-26,7
Timber
Other Transport Equipment
Perfumes, soaps & cleaning products
Foodstuffs
Machinery & equipment
Petroleum and alcohol refining
Tobacco
Other chemical products
Furniture
Publishing and printing
Non-metallic minerals
Pulp and paper
Electronic materials and communication equipment
Medical-hospital-optical equipment and others
Basic metallurgy
General Industry
Beverages
Rubber and plastic
Footwear
Textiles
Extractive industry
Pharmaceuticals
Metal products - except machinery and equipment
Sundry items
Electrical machinery, devices and materials
Apparel
Office machinery and IT equipment
Automobiles & vehicles
Lending to corporations slowed down in the margin
37
Real loans made(Base index Dec/05=100,
seasonally adjusted figures)
Source: Brazilian Central Bank. Produced by: MB Associados.0,7
-0,1
-0,4
-1,2
-4,7
-4,7
-6,3
-7,1
-8,1
-10,1
-17,5
-29,1
-30,0
Seller
Guaranteed Account
Discounts Promissory Notes
Import Financing
Total
Others
Advances on FX Contracts
Working Capital
Discounting of Trade Bills
Real Estate Finance
Acquisition of goods
Hot Money
External Onlending
Individuals: seasonally adjusted monthly variation
(%)
Corporations: seasonally adjusted monthly
variation (%)
100
120
140
160
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Corporations
Individuals
6,1
2,7
1,6
1,0
0,7
0,6
-4,3
-4,8
Credit Card
Others
Personal Credit
Total
Acquisition of other…
Overdraft Facility
Acquisition of vehicles
Real Estate Finance
Total Default: individuals and corporations (%)
38
Corporations (%)Individuals (%)
Source: Brazilian Central Bank. Produced by: MB Associados.
Projection Projection
7,1
4,8
6,4
8,0
9,6
Dec-06 Dec-09 Dec-12
15 to 90 days
More than 90 days
3,9
0,0
1,6
3,2
4,8
Dec-06 Dec-09 Dec-12
15 to 90 days
More than 90 days
Default rate among individuals (more than 90 days overdue)
0
4
8
12
16
Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
Overdraft Personal credit
Acquisition of vehicles Acquisition of other goods
Source: Bacen. Prepared by: MB Associados.
%
Inflation projections (%)
40
Montlhy 12 months
Feb-12 -0,06 0,07 0,45 5,8
Mar-12 0,25 0,25 0,42 5,5
Apr-12 0,32 0,33 0,53 5,2
2010 11,3 11,3
2011 5,1 5,0
2012 3,9 4,2
Sources: FIPE, FGV and IBGE. Estimates: MB Associados 09/03/2012.
IGP - M IGP - DIIPCA
6,5
5,5
5,9
Change in inflation as measured by the IPCA
41
Total IPCA and inflation
cores (monthly variation - %)
Source: IBGE. Produced by: MB Associados.
Total IPCA and inflation cores (12-
month cumulative growth - %)
0,52 0,510,55
0,490,52
0,50
0,56
0,45
Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
Average of new cores IPCA
6,4
5,8
4,0
4,7
5,4
6,1
6,8
7,5
Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12
Core Inflation
Lag in gasoline and diesel prices on the domestic market
42
Comparison of the Domestic
and International prices of
Gasoline Based on Export Parity (US$/liter)
Comparison of the Domestic and
International Prices of Diesel Based
on Export Parity (US$/liter)
� On average the price of gasoline at
domestic refineries was 11% lower than
that practiced in the Gulf of Mexico
� On average the selling price of diesel at
Petrobras Refineries was 21% lower than
that of the fuel sold in the Gulf of
Mexico.
Source and Produced by: CBIE (Energy in the Spotlight, Feb/12).
CIDE: rates and federal tax collection
43
CIDE rates on the price of
gasoline and diesel (R$/liter)
CIDE: monthly change in tax
collection (*) (R$ million)
Source: Cbie, Federal Revenue Service. (*) At last month’s prices, deflated by IGP-DI. Produced by: MB Associados.
415,7
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
0,23
0,070,09
0,05
Gasoline Diesel
Former Current*
Estimated impact of increases in the price of gasoline and diesel
Average prices of Gasoline and
Diesel for the consumer (R$/liter)
Source: ANP, Cbie. Produced by and estimates by: MB Associados.
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
Diesel Gasoline
CIDE
R$ 2.0/liter
R$ 2.73/literGasoline Diesel
Consumer Price (R$/liter) 2,73 2,00
CIDE Tax (R$/liter) 0,09 0,05
% increase in prices 11% 21%
CIDE Tax as % of cons. Prices 3,3% 2,5%
% increase if CIDE tax is removed 7,7% 18,5%
Iten Weight in IPCA composition 4,11% 0,13%
Impact on Inflation (IPCA)
(in pp)0,32 0,02
Focus Bulletin: market’s expectations for IPCA in 2013
45
Expectations of the Top 5
Institutions (annual variation - %)
Market’s expectations (relative frequency - %)
Source: Brazilian Central Bank (Focus Bulletin, 03/05). Produced by: MB Associados.
5,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
09/11/11 09/12/11 09/01/12 09/02/12 09/03/12
2013
Government will continue to try to set a floor for the FX rate (R$/dollar)
46
1,3
1,6
1,9
2,2
2,5
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12Source: IBGE. Prepared by: MB Associados.
1,70
20/10/09 - IOF on fixed
and variable rate
operations from 0% to
2.0%
18/11/2009 - IOF on ADR
emission from 0% to 1.5%
04/10/10 - IOF on fixed rate
operations from 2.0% to
4.0%
18/10/10 – IOF on fixed
rate operation from 4.0%
to 6.0%
28/03/11 – IOF on credit
card operations from 2.38%
to 6.38%
06/04/11 – IOF on
international loans
(6.0%) – 720 days
29/03/11 – IOF on
international loans
(6.0%) -360 days
29/02/12 – IOF on
international loans
(6.0%) - 3 years
27/07/11 – IOF
on short positions
in derivatives
from 0% to 1%
12/03/12 –
IOF on
international
loans (6.0%)
- 5 years
CPMF and IOF – in cumulative 12-month terms in R$ millions
47
0,0
10.000,0
20.000,0
30.000,0
40.000,0
50.000,0
60.000,0
Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
CPMF IOF
Source: STN. Production: MB Associados.
MB Associados
Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 1,739 – 5th floor
São Paulo – SP – 01452-001
Telephone: (011) 3062 - 1085
Fax: (011) 3062 - 8482
www.mbassociados.com.br