FX / Rates Market Movement UpdatesFX / Rates Market Movement Updates

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December December 20112011

EURUSD Movement

� Debt problem in Europe will still weigh on its currency, at least in the first half of 2012.

2

Source : Reuters

USDTHB Movement 1996-2011

� This year high and low of USDTHB is only 1.6 baht, narrowest range since 1997.

3

Source : Reuters

USDTHB Spot

USDTHB Movement 2011

� Technically, 29.5 seems to be good support while 31.5 is also strong resistance.However, looking from market sentiment, there is possibility we may see THBweaken to 32-33 first before coming back down.

4

Source : Reuters

USDTHB Spot

USDTHB Movement 2011

� THB spot is well correlated with SET index... (When SET weakens, THB weakens)

USDTHB Spot

5

Source : Reuters

SET Index

USDTHB Movement 2011

� And also EUR. (When EUR weakens, THB weakens)

USDTHB Spot

6

Source : Reuters

EURUSD Spot

Crude Oil Movement

� NYMEX crude oil should still trade in uptrend, roughly 75-110 range next year.

7

Source : Reuters

Gold Movement

� Gold recently got hurt from ‘no QE3’ from U.S. while implication from Europe is confusing. $1,500 should be strong (and last) support.

8

Source : Reuters

THB and USD Interest Rate

� We should still see soft rate environment as least in the first half of 2012.

5Y THB IRS

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5Y USDIRS

5Y THB IRS

Source : Reuters

Kingdom of Thailand 5Y CDS

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