DAILY IFOREX REPORT

23rd

SEP 2013

GBP/USD 1.6072

GBP/EUR 1.1850

EUR/USD 1.3555

GBPAUD 1.6915

GBP/CAD 1.6381

GBP/CHF 1.4611

GBP/CZK 30.494

GBP/DKK 8.8356

GBP/HKD 12.4574

GBP/INR 99.03

GBP/JPY 157.13

GBP/NOK 9.269

GBP/NZD 1.9082

GBP/PLN 4.956

GBP/SEK 10.14

GBP/SGD 1.9995

GBP/THB 50.7976

GBP/TRY 3.1377

GBP/ZAR 15.489

GBP/CNY 9.807

Weekly Forex Trading Forecast:

Finding Volatility and Trend Post-Fed

US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Plummets on Fed, but Here’s Why it Might not Fall Further

The US Dollar plummeted against the Euro and other major FX counterparts as the US Federal Reserve disappointed those looking for it to “Taper” its Quantitative Easing policies, but is it enough to drive the Greenback to further lows?

Euro/US Dollar Look to Risk, PMIs and German Election to Hold 1.3500

There is a considerable amount of event risk for the Euro – but as we have learned over the past months and years, it may not be particularly market moving. That can be both a boon and burden for EURUSD as it hovers just above 1.3500.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Yen Would Benefit from Softer US Yields, but FOMC Turned Risk “On”

The Japanese Yen was a bottom performer over the past week, losing ground quickly from Wednesday forward after the Federal Reserve surprised investors by keeping QE3 in place at its current $85B/month pace.

British Pound Forecast - Pound to Face Limited Correction Amid Shift in BoE Policy Outlook

The British Pound extended the advance from earlier this month as the Bank of England (BoE) struck a more hawkish tone for monetary policy...

Australian Dollar Recovery Faces Evolving Fed QE Speculation

Risks to the recovery of the Australian Dollar will emerge as a busy US economic data and Fed-speak schedule drive the evolution of Fed QE speculation.

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3500 TGT

1.3480/1.3460 SL 1.3530

SELL USDJPY BELOW 99.00 TGT

98.80/98.60 SL 99.30

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.6030 TGT

1.6050/1.6070 SL 1.6000

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 50(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.03(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>50(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>30(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>56(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun Sep 15

21:45

REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

Low 2.1%

-0.5%

21:45

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (AUG)

Low 8.5%

14.7%

21:45

REINZ Housing Price Index (AUG)

Low 3746.6

3669.1

22:00

NZD Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence (3Q)

Medium 115.4

116.6

22:30

NZD Performance Services Index (AUG)

Medium 53.2

58.2

23:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (SEP)

Low -1.5%

-1.8%

23:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (SEP)

Low 4.5%

5.5%

Mon Sep 16

Troika Officials Start 8th and 9th Review of Portugal's Aid Plan

Low

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (AUG F)

High 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG F)

High 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

Medium 0.1% 0.1% -0.5%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (2Q)

Low 0.9%

1.7%

12:30

CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (JUL)

Low 6.09B 8.00B -15.43B

12:30

USD Empire Manufacturing (SEP)

Low 6.29 9.1 8.24

13:00

CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)

Low 2.8%

0.2%

13:15

USD Industrial Production (AUG)

Medium 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%

13:15

USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (AUG)

Medium 0.7% 0.5% -0.4%

13:15

USD Capacity Utilization (AUG)

Low 77.8% 77.9% 77.6%

21:00

USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Low

Tue

Sep 17 01:30

AUD RBA Policy Meeting - September Minutes

Medium

01:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.8%

-3.6%

ECONOMIC CALLENDER

01:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG)

Low 0.2%

3.0%

02:00

CNY Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) (AUG)

Medium 0.6% 12.5% 24.1%

02:00

CNY Conference Board China August Leading Economic Index

Low 269.3

267.4

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (AUG)

Low 53.3%

31.6%

06:00

EUR EU 27 New Car Registrations (AUG)

Low -5.0%

5.0%

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (JUL)

Low 26.6B

27.8B

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (JUL)

Low 16.9B

19.8B

08:30 LIVE

GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

High 2.7% 2.7% 2.8%

08:30 LIVE

GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

High 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%

08:30 LIVE

GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

Medium 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)

Medium 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)

Medium 1.6% 1.8% 2.1%

08:30

GBP ONS House Prices (YoY) (JUL)

Low 3.3% 3.4% 3.1%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

Low -0.2% 0.2% 1.2%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)

Low 2.8% 3.0% 5.1%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (AUG)

Low 251.0 250.8 249.7

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (AUG)

Low 3.3% 3.20% 3.2%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.5% 0.40% 0.0%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

Low 3.3% 3.20% 3.1%

09:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (SEP)

High 49.6 45.0 42

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (SEP)

Medium 58.6

44

09:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (SEP)

Medium 30.6 20.0 18.3

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (JUL)

Low 18.2B

16.5B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (JUL)

Low 11.1B 15.0B 13.5B

12:30 LIVE

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (AUG)

High

1.8% 1.7%

12:30 LIVE

USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

High

1.6% 2.0%

12:30 LIVE

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (AUG)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

12:30 LIVE

USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

12:30

CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.5% -0.5%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (AUG)

Low

234.341 234.004

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (AUG)

Low

233.963 233.596

13:00

USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JUL)

Medium

-$15.0B -$66.9B

13:00

USD Total Net TIC Flows (JUL)

Low

-$19.0B

14:00

USD NAHB Housing Market Index (SEP)

Medium

58 59

22:45

NZD Current Account Balance (2Q)

Low

-1.9B -0.663B

22:45

NZD Current Account Deficit-GDP Ratio (2Q)

Low

-4.8% -4.8%

Wed

Sep 18

USD Federal Reserve FOMC Two-day Meeting Begins

High

00:00

AUD Conference Board Leading Index (JUL)

Medium

-0.2%

00:30

AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JUL)

Medium

0.0%

01:30

CNY China August Property Prices

Low

08:30

GBP Bank of England Minutes

Medium

09:00

CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (SEP)

Medium

7.2

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.7%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)

Low

-3.0%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 13)

Low

-13.5%

12:30

USD Building Permits (MoM) (AUG)

Medium

-0.4% 2.7%

12:30

USD Housing Starts (MoM) (AUG)

Medium

3.0% 5.9%

12:30

USD Building Permits (AUG)

Low

950K 943K

12:30

USD Housing Starts (AUG)

Low

923K 896K

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (SEP 13)

Low

-639K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 13)

Low

-219K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (SEP 13)

Low

2586K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (SEP 13)

Low

1658K

18:00 LIVE

USD Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program (SEP)

High

$40B $40B

18:00 LIVE

USD Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program (SEP)

High

$35B $45B

18:00 LIVE

USD Fed Releases Summary of Economic Projections

High

18:00 LIVE

USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (SEP 18)

High

0.25% 0.3%

18:30 LIVE

USD Fed's Bernanke Holds Press Conference in Washington

High

22:45

NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)

High

2.3% 2.4%

22:45

NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)

Medium

0.2% 0.3%

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (AUG)

Medium

-¥1113.8B -¥1024.0B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (AUG)

Low

-¥824.5B -¥944.0B

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (AUG)

Low

14.8 12.2

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (AUG)

Low

18.7 19.6

Thu Sep 19

JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks in Tokyo

Medium

JPY Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Kiuchi Speaks

Low

01:30

AUD RBA FX Transactions Government (AUG)

Low

-509M

01:30

AUD RBA FX Transactions Other (AUG)

Low

26M

01:30

AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (AUG)

Low

436M

01:30

JPY BOJ Board Member Kiuchi Speech & Press Conference

Low

04:30

JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL)

Medium

0.3% -0.6%

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (JUL F)

Medium

106.4

05:00

JPY Leading Index (JUL F)

Medium

107.8

05:45

CHF SECO September 2013 Economic Forecasts

Medium

06:00

CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (AUG)

Medium

2.38B

06:00

CHF Exports (MoM) (AUG)

Low

-1.9%

06:00

CHF Imports (MoM) (AUG)

Low

3.2%

07:30 LIVE

CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision (SEP 19)

High

0.0% 0.0%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales Incl. Auto (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

3.3% 3.0%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

3.2% 3.1%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM) (AUG)

Low

0.4% 1.1%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)

Low

0.0% 1.1%

10:00

GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (SEP)

Low

2 0

10:00

GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (SEP)

Low

2 0

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 13)

Medium

330K 292K

12:30

CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (JUL)

Low

1.50% -2.8%

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (SEP 6)

Low

2871K

12:30 LIVE

USD Current Account Balance (2Q)

Low

-$96.3B -$106.1B

14:00

USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)

Medium

-2.6% 6.5%

14:00

USD Leading Indicators (AUG)

Medium

0.6% 0.6%

14:00

USD Philadelphia Fed. (SEP)

Medium

10 9.3

14:00

USD API Monthly Statistical Report

Low

14:00

USD Existing Home Sales (AUG)

Low

5.25M 5.39M

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (SEP 13)

Low

65

22:00

NZD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (AUG)

Low

3.5%

22:45

NZD Net Migration s.a. (AUG)

Low

1980

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (SEP 13)

Medium

-¥66.5B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (SEP 13)

Medium

¥38.1B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (SEP 13)

Low

-¥197.3B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (SEP 13)

Low

¥185.4B

Fri Sep 20

JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks at Kisaragi-kai Meeting

Low

03:00

NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

4.7%

03:00

NZD Credit Card Spending (MoM) (AUG)

Low

-0.3%

05:30

JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)

Low

-2.5%

05:30

JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)

Low

-1.0%

07:00

JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)

Low

-0.8%

08:30

GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (AUG)

Medium

-19.6B

08:30

GBP PSNB ex Interventions (AUG)

Low

13.3B 0.1B

08:30

GBP PSNB ex Royal Mail, APF (AUG)

Low

13.3B 0.5B

08:30

GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (AUG)

Low

11.9B -1.6B

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

1.2% 1.4%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

1.1% 1.3%

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (AUG)

Low

0.1% 0.0%

12:30

CAD CPI Core SA (MoM) (AUG)

Low

0.1%

12:30

CAD CPI SA (MoM) (AUG)

Low

0.2%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (AUG)

Low

123.1

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

Low

0.1% 0.1%

14:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP A)

Medium

-14.5% -15.6

16:30

USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in New York

Low

16:55

USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in NY

Low

17:45

USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in New York

Low

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