Daily i Forex Report 7 AUGUST 2013

8/22/2019 Daily i Forex Report 7 AUGUST 2013

1/15

DAILY IFOREX REPORT

07TH

AUG 2013

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2/15

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Italian GDP Beats Expectations In FirstMajor Q2 Release From The Euro-Zone US Dollar Looking to Fed-speak for QEReduction Clues

US Dollar Looking to Comments from Chicago FedsEvans for Direction

Japanese Yen Sold as Nikkei Rallies on Pension FundsPortfolio Shuffle

Aussie Dollar Rallies as RBA Offers No Clear Signal onFuture Rate Cuts

A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hoursshifts the spotlight to the US docket, where the focus will be onChicago Fed President Charles Evans. The vocally dovishpolicymaker is a voting member of the rate-setting FOMCcommittee this year. A prepared speech is not scheduled; rather,Evans will be answering reporters questions, who will no doubt grilhim on the likelihood of a reduction in the Feds monthly assetpurchases at the September policy meeting. If Evans is perceived tobe in favor of tapering the size of the QE effort, this is likely tobroadly boost the US Dollar, and vice versa.

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, falling asmuch as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts.The move tracked an advance in the Nikkei 225 benchmark stockindex, suggesting a sentiment-driven unwinding of carry tradesfunded in terms of the perennially low-yielding currency was thecatalyst behind the move. The news-wires chalked up the Nikkeirally to a Reuters report suggesting Japans civil servants pensionfund is weighing investing more of its capital in shares versusdomestic bonds.

The Australian Dollar rallied as expected after the RBA delivered awidely expected 25bps interest rate cut without offering explicitguidance pointing to continued easing at upcoming meetings. The

tone of the policy statement turned nominally less dovish, with thepunch-line proclaiming policymakers will continue to assess theoutlook and adjust policy as needed, which stands in contrast tolast months assertion that the the inflation outlook may providesome scope for further easing. Going forward, this is likely to makefor a data-sensitive environment, putting the spotlight on JulysEmployment data. Chinese Exports and CPI releases may likewiseprove important considering the Aussies sensitivity to growth trendin the East Asian powerhouse.

TRADING TIPSSELL EURUSD BELOW

1.3260 TGT 1.3240/1.3210

SL 1.3290

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 98.30

TGT 98.50/98.80 SL 98.00

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5380 TGT 1.5400/1.5430

SL 1.5350

HEADLINES
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3/15

HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 56(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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4/15

HOURLY USDJPY CHART


ANALYSIS

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>41(BULLISH SIGNAL)


5/15

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART


ANALYSIS

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH





6/15www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>56(BEARISH SIGNAL)


7/15

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH





8/15

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous N

Sun

Aug 423:30

AiG Performance ofServices Index

Medium 39.4 41.5

Mon

Aug 500:30

AUD TD SecuritiesInflation (YoY) (JUL)

Medium 2.7% 2.4%

00:30AUD TD SecuritiesInflation (MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.5% 0.0%

01:00NZD ANZ CommodityPrice (JUL)

Low 0.6% -3.7%

01:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a.

(MoM) (JUN) Medium 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%

01:30AUD Retail Sales ExInflation(QoQ) (2Q)

Low 0.0% -0.1% 2.0%

01:45CNY HSBC/MarkitServices PMI (JUL)

Medium 51.3 51.3

06:00CHF UBS Real EstateBubble Index (2Q)

Medium 1.20 1.17

07:45EUR Italian PurchasingManager IndexServices (JUL)

Low 48.7 46.5 45.8

07:50EUR FrenchPurchasing Manager

Index Services (JUL F)

Low 48.6 48.3 48.3

07:55EUR GermanPurchasing ManagerIndex Services (JUL F)

Medium 51.3 52.5 52.5

08:00

EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Composite (JULF)

Medium 50.5 50.4 50.4

08:00EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Services (JUL F)

Medium 49.8 49.6 49.6

08:30EUR Euro-Zone SentixInvestor Confidence(AUG)

Medium -4.9 -10.0 -12.6

08:30

GBP Purchasing

Manager IndexServices (JUL)

Medium 60.2 57.4 56.9

08:30GBP Official Reserves(Changes) (JUL)

Low $1672M -$1871M

09:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (YoY) (JUN)

Medium -0.9% -1.3% 0.3%

09:00EUR Euro-Zone RetailSales (MoM) (JUN)

Low -0.5% -0.7% 1.1%

14:00USD ISM Non-ManufacturingComposite (JUL)

Medium 56.0 53.1 52.2

ECONOMIC CALLENDER


9/15

15:45USD Fed's FisherSpeaks on theEconomy in Oregon

Low

21:00USD EIA Gasoline andDiesel Fuel Update

Low

22:00NZD ANZ TruckometerHeavy (MoM) (JUL)

Low 9.6% -7.8%

23:01GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (JUL)

Low 2.2% 2.0% 1.4%

TueAug 6

01:30AUD Trade Balance(Australian dollar)(JUN)

Medium 602M 804M 507M

01:30AUD ANZ JobAdvertisements (MoM)(JUL)

Low -1.1% -1.6%

01:30AUD House Price Index(QoQ) (2Q)

Low 2.4% 1.0% 0.8%

01:30AUD House Price Index(YoY) (2Q)

Low 5.1% 3.0% 3.3%

04:30LIVE

AUD Reserve Bank ofAustralia Rate Decision(AUG 6)

High 2.50% 2.50% 2.75%

05:00JPY Coincident Index(JUN P)

Medium 105.2 105.1 106.0

05:00JPY Leading Index(JUN P)

Medium 107.0 107.3 110.7

07:00GBP Halifax HousePrice (3MoY) (JUL)

Low 4.6% 4.3% 3.7%

07:00GBP Halifax Plc HousePrices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.9% 0.5% 0.7%

08:02GBP New CarRegistrations (YoY)(JUL)

Low 12.7% 13.4%

08:30GBP IndustrialProduction (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 1.2% 0.8% -2.3%

08:30GBP ManufacturingProduction (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 2.0% 1.0% -2.9%

08:30GBP IndustrialProduction (MoM)(JUN)

Low 1.1% 0.7% 0.0%

08:30GBP ManufacturingProduction (MoM)(JUN)

Low 1.9% 1.0% -0.7%

09:00LIVE

EUR Italian GrossDomestic Product s.a.and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q P)

Medium -2.0% -2.2% -2.4%

09:00LIVE

EUR Italian GrossDomestic Product s.a.and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2QP)

Low -0.2% -0.4% -0.6%

10:00EUR German FactoryOrders n.s.a. (YoY)(JUN)

Medium 4.3% 0.3% -2.0%

10:00EUR German FactoryOrders s.a. (MoM)(JUN)

Low 3.8% 1.0% -0.5%

12:30USD Trade Balance(JUN)

Medium -$43.5B -$45.0B

12:30CAD InternationalMerchandise Trade(Canadian dollar) (JUN)

Low -0.51B -0.30B


10/15

14:00GBP NIESR GrossDomestic ProductEstimate (JUL)

High 0.6%

14:00USD IBD/TIPPEconomic Optimism(AUG)

Low 47.5 47.1

14:00USD JOLTs JobOpenings (JUN)

Low 3895 3828

17:00USD Fed's Evansspeaks to reporters inChicago

Low

22:45NZD UnemploymentRate (2Q)

High 6.3% 6.2%

22:45NZD EmploymentChange (YoY) (2Q)

Medium 0.7% 0.3%

22:45NZD Average HourlyEarnings (QoQ) (2Q)

Low 0.6% 1.0%

22:45NZD EmploymentChange (QoQ) (2Q)

Low 0.3% 1.7%

22:45NZD Private Wages incOvertime (QoQ) (2Q)

Low 0.5% 0.3%

22:45NZD Participation Rate(QoQ) (2Q)

Low 67.9% 67.8%

22:45NZD Private Wages exOvertime (QoQ) (2Q)

Low 0.5% 0.4%

23:30AUD AiG Performanceof Construction Index(JUL)

Medium 39.5

23:50JPY Official ReserveAssets (JUL)

Low $1238.7B

Wed

Aug 701:30

AUD Home Loans(JUN)

Medium 2.0% 1.8%

01:30AUD Value of Loans(MoM) (JUN)

Medium 2.3%

01:30AUD InvestmentLending (JUN)

Low 1.5%

05:45CHF SECO ConsumerConfidence (JUL)

Medium -1 -5

07:00CHF Foreign CurrencyReserves (JUL)

Low 431.0B 434.8B

07:15CHF CPI - EUHarmonised (YoY)(JUL)

Medium 0.2%

07:15CHF Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (JUL)

Medium -0.1% -0.1%

07:15CHF CPI - EUHarmonised (MoM)(JUL)

Low 0.2%

07:15CHF Consumer PriceIndex (MoM) (JUL)

Low -0.4% 0.1%

08:30GBP LloydsEmploymentConfidence (JUL)

Low -33

09:30LIVE

GBP Bank of EnglandInflation Report

High


11/15

10:00EUR German IndustrialProduction n.s.a. andw.d.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Medium -0.3% -1.0%

10:00EUR German IndustrialProduction s.a. (MoM)(JUN)

Low 0.3% -1.0%

11:00USD MBA MortgageApplications (AUG 2)

Low -3.7%

12:30CAD Building Permits(MoM) (JUN)

Medium -1.2% 4.5%

14:00CAD Ivey PurchasingManagers Index s.a.(JUL)

Medium 56.0 55.3

14:30USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (AUG2)

Low -1904K

14:30USD DOE U.S. CrudeOil Inventories (AUG 2)

Low 431K

14:30USD DOE U.S.Distillate Inventory(AUG 2)

Low -466K

14:30USD DOE U.S.Gasoline Inventories(AUG 2)

Low 770K

16:30USD Fed's PlosserSpeaks on Economy inWashington

Low

17:40USD Fed's PianaltoSpeaks on MonetaryPolicy in Cleveland

Low

19:00USD Consumer Credit(JUN)

Medium $15.000B $19.615B

23:50JPY Bank Lending inclTrusts (YoY) (JUL)

Medium 1.9% 1.9%

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Bonds (Yen)(AUG 2)

Medium 233.2B

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Stocks (Yen)(AUG 2)

Medium -154.9B

23:50JPY Trade Balance -BOP Basis (Yen) (JUN)

Medium -128.7B -906.7B

23:50JPY Adjusted CurrentAccount Total (Yen)(JUN)

Low 727.3B 623.3B

23:50JPY Bank LendingBanks ex-Trust (JUL)

Low 2.2%

23:50JPY BoP CurrentAccount Balance (YoY)(JUN)

Low -3.5% 58.1%

23:50JPY Current AccountTotal (Yen) (JUN)

Low 396.5B 540.7B

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Bonds (Yen)(AUG 2)

Low -430.3B

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Stocks (Yen)(AUG 2)

Low -61.8B

23:50JPY Housing Loans(YoY) (2Q)

Low 3.2%

Thu

Aug 8

JPY Bank of JapanMonetary PolicyStatement

High


12/15

JPY Bank of JapanRate Decision (AUG 8)

High

CNY Trade Balance(JUL)

Medium $25.90B $27.12B

JPY BOJ 2014Monetary Base Target(AUG 8)

Medium 270T

USD MBA MortgageForeclosures (2Q)

Low 3.6%

USD MortgageDelinquencies (2Q)

Low 7.3%

CNY Exports (YoY)(JUL)

Low 1.5% -3.1%

CNY Imports (YoY)(JUL)

Low 1.0% -0.7%

00:00NZD QV House Prices(YoY) (JUL)

Low 7.6%

01:30AUD EmploymentChange (JUL)

High 6.0K 10.3K

01:30AUD UnemploymentRate (JUL)

High 5.8% 5.7%

01:30AUD Full TimeEmployment Change(JUL)

Medium -4.4K

01:30AUD Part TimeEmployment Change(JUL)

Low 14.8K

01:30AUD Participation Rate(JUL)

Low 65.3% 65.3%

02:00JPY Tokyo Avg OfficeVacancies (JUL)

Low 8.46

04:30JPY Bankruptcies(YoY) (JUL)

Medium -8.0%

05:00JPY Eco WatchersSurvey: Outlook (JUL)

Medium 54.1 53.6

05:00JPY Eco WatchersSurvey: Current (JUL)

Low 53.5 53

05:45CHF UnemploymentRate (JUL)

Medium 2.9% 2.9%

05:45CHF UnemploymentRate s.a. (JUL)

Medium 3.2% 3.2%

06:00EUR German TradeBalance (euros) (JUN)

Medium 15.0B 13.1B

06:00EUR German CurrentAccount (euros) (JUN)

Low 17.0B 11.2B

06:00EUR German Exportss.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low 1.0% -2.4%

06:00EUR German Importss.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low 0.0% 1.7%

06:30AUD Foreign Reserves(Australian dollar) (JUL)

Low A$51.9B


13/15

08:00EUR ECB PublishesMonthly Report

High

12:30CAD New HousingPrice Index (YoY)(JUN)

Medium 1.8%

12:30USD Initial JoblessClaims (AUG 3)

Medium 335K 326K

12:30CAD New HousingPrice Index (MoM)(JUN)

Low 0.1%

12:30USD Continuing Claims(JUL 27)

Low 2951K

14:30USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (AUG2)

Low 59

22:45NZD NZ Card Spending(MoM) (JUL)

Medium 1.2%

22:45NZD Card Spending -Retail (MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.4% 1.1%

23:50JPY Tertiary IndustryIndex (MoM) (JUN)

Medium -0.4% 1.2%

23:50JPY Japan MoneyStock M2+CD (YoY)(JUL)

Low 3.8% 3.8%

23:50JPY Japan MoneyStock M3 (YoY) (JUL)

Low 3.1% 3.0%

Fri

Aug 901:30

CNY Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (JUL)

High 2.8% 2.7%

01:30CNY Producer PriceIndex (YoY) (JUL)

Medium -2.1% -2.7%

05:00JPY Bank of Japan'sMonthly EconomicReport for August

Medium

05:00JPY ConsumerConfidence Index (JUL)

Medium 45.0 44.3

05:30CNY Fixed Assets ExRural YTD (YoY) (JUL)

Medium 20.0% 20.1%

05:30CNY IndustrialProduction YTD (YoY)(JUL)

Medium 9.3%

05:30CNY IndustrialProduction (YoY) (JUL)

Medium 8.8% 8.9%

05:30CNY Retail Sales YTD(YoY) (JUL)

Medium 12.7%

05:30CNY Retail Sales (YoY)(JUL)

Medium 13.4% 13.3%

08:30GBP Total TradeBalance (Pounds)(JUN)

Medium -2350 -2435

08:30GBP ConstructionOutput s.a. (MoM)(JUN)

Low 0.0%

08:30GBP ConstructionOutput s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Low -4.8%

08:30GBP Trade BalanceNon EU (Pounds)(JUN)

Low -4093


14/15

08:30GBP Visible TradeBalance (Pounds)(JUN)

Low -8500 -8491

12:15CAD Housing Starts(JUL)

Medium 191.0K 199.6K

12:30CAD Net Change inEmployment (JUL)

High 6.0K -0.4K

12:30CAD UnemploymentRate (JUL)

High 7.1% 7.1%

12:30CAD Full TimeEmployment Change(JUL)

Medium -32.4

12:30CAD Part TimeEmployment Change(JUL)

Low 32.2

12:30CAD Participation Rate(JUL)

Low 66.7

14:00USD WholesaleInventories (JUN)

Medium 0.4% -0.5%

14:00USD Wholesale TradeSales (MoM) (JUN)

Low 0.7% 1.6%


15/15


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Daily i Forex Report 7 AUGUST 2013