Techview June

TURKISH EQUITY MARKETS“BEARS ON PLAY”

(June 16, 2010)

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TR BOND (as of June 16, 2010)

BOND. MONTHLY

Medium Term Expectations:• Excessive price movements unconfirmed by indicators are trading opportunities• We expect a rise in interest rates and still keep our “SELL” position for “10.50” target.

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TR BOND (as of June 16, 2010)

BOND.intraday

Short Term Expectations:• We see: “expanding price movements” that indicates “fluctuations” • We expect interest rates going to “8.70 – 8.75” level for the indicator (optimized) is weaker than previous days

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MARKET VIEW (as of June 16, 2010)

XU100. MONTHLY

Long Term Expectations:

• We are less “BULLISH” after June performance• Last signal is a “BUY” dated on May.2010 (@ 52.500)• Bearish trend duration expected: 1-2 weeks• We expect to be “BEARISH” @57.500 (where index is highly deviated from its moving average)

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XU030/USD MONTHLY

Long Term Expectations:

• “BEARISH” pattern (not similar to XU100/TL)• Overbought conditions: support expected @30.000• Last signal as “SELL” in Apr.10 (@ 50.500)• Trend duration expected: 3-6 months

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USD/TL MONTHLY

• We are more “BULLISH” as long as blue curve (1) stay above “0” level • Last signal as “BUY” in September.09 (@ 1.4650)• We expect to be more “BULLISH” as long as USD/TL stays over 1.5550 in June

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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: VIX030 daily (as of June 16, 2010)

• Correction time after excessive movements: although the indicator made new high of last days high deviation from average is “bullish” sign

• We expect price approaching to its moving average (first step)

• Our favoured “C-system” methodology has given a last signal as a SELL on 67.300 and continues remain bullish

Exhibit: Daily Chart vs. Our Recommendations

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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: VIX030 hourly (as of June 16, 2010)

• We are less “BULLISH” with last uptrend (15.06 – 16.06)

• We expect overbought market in several hours (intraday)

• Our favoured “C-system” methodology has given a last signal as a BUY on 70.900 and continues to remain bullish

Exhibit: Hourly Chart vs. Our Recommendations

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BalticDRY vs ISE INDUSTRIALS (as of June 16, 2010) • We choose another indicator to analyze indexes ratio• The ratio has blurry signals: see the indicator near “0” : sign of horizantal trend.• Falling BDRY index limit ISE.IND positive momentum (they are highly correlated)• We think it will reach “0.11” level in 2010

Indexes are strongly correlated: R^2=0.82

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CONTACT DETAILS

Cem Şengezer

Technical & Quantitative Analyst System Developer

GSM: 0532 382 85 92E-mail: [email protected]

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RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE SUMMARY (as of June 16, 2010)

Quarterly Performance• Our model portfolio outperformed XU100 performance by 957% with high volume equities • We invested with equal capital to equities• Double digit gains relative to XU100 every quarter (47% on period average) (*)• Every period 4-5 equities are recommended to beat XU100• 8-10 transactions / quarter (average period for every equity is one quarter)• Max drawdown (occured at Q1.08): -24% (7 out of 28 recoms with negative performance)• portfolio performance average / portfolio standard deviation = 0,55• market performance average / market standard deviation = 0.14

* See next pages for details

AVERAGE GAIN / STD. DEVIATION

0,14

0,55

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

Model Portfolio Index

CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE

0%

957%957%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

1000%

Model Portfolio Index Relative

COMPARED PERFORMANCE CURVES

1057

100

100

17916912585

809

9548656370,24919875

100

1

10

100

1000

10000

2007 Q1.08 Q2.08 Q3.08 Q4.08 2009 2010

Model PortfolioXU100

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RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE TABLE (as of June 16, 2010)

2008 (Q1) 2008 (Q2) 2008 (Q3) 2008 (Q4) 2009 2010 (YTD)

TCELL -%13 %5

TUPRS -%14 %9

EREGL -% 9

ASYAB -%24

IHEVA %43

EREGL %50

GUBRF %98 %27

BAGFS %35

ISCTR %34

VAKBN %34 %264

YKBNK %38 %29

AKBNK %54

KCHOL %17 %32

PETKM %5 %41

THYAO -%14 %438

GARAN -%15

TTKOM -%9 %24

KOZAA %423

ARCLK %285

XU100 -%42 -%11 %3 -%34 %97 %7

Sample selected from high volume equities

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RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE ( 2008 )

Cumulative yield for a given period

Capital 100.000 TRL

Period 02.01.08 01.10.08 273 days

System

100.000 TRL

216.002 TRL 116%

Transa. 36

Commi. 0,3% 2.388 TRL

Net 100.000 TRL

213.614 TRL 114%

XU100 54.708 36.051 -34%

Relative 148%

* See next pages for details

PERFORMANCE CURVE

214

66

201

120

137

157

182

110

9581 85

76 7965

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

01.08 02.08 03.08 04.08 05.08 06.08 07.08 08.08 09.08

PORTFOLIOXU100

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RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE TABLE (daily -2008)

Transactions table

lot date buy cost date sell cost P/L %0,3%

day

GUBRF 8.621 02.01.08 2,32

20.000

10.01.08 3,24

27.931 7.931 39%

144 8

TUPRS 620 07.01.08 32,25

20.000

11.01.08

35,25

21.860 1.860 9%

126 4

TCELL 2.151 22.01.08 9,3020.000

25.01.08

10,50

22.581 2.581 12%

128 3

AKBNK 3.175 22.01.08 6,30

20.000

04.02.08 6,85

21.746 1.746 8%

125 13

OZGYO 8.264 22.01.08 2,42

20.000

30.01.08 3,00

24.793 4.793 23%

134 8

THYAO 2.837 31.01.08 7,05

20.000

05.02.08 7,65

21.702 1.702 8%

125 5

ASYAB 5.634 08.02.08 3,55

20.000

27.02.08 4,40

24.789 4.789 23%

134 19

GARAN 4.878 08.02.08 4,10

20.000

15.02.08 4,80

23.415 3.415 16%

130 7

THYAO 14.925 08.02.08 1,34

20.000

19.02.08 1,45

21.642 1.642 8%

125 11

HALKB 2.837 11.02.08 7,05

20.000

14.02.08 8,00

22.695 2.695 13%

128 3

OZGYO 8.163 11.02.08 2,45

20.000

21.02.08 3,04

24.816 4.816 23%

134 10

GUBRF 6.623 15.02.08 3,02

20.000

10.03.08 6,10

40.397

20.397 101%

181 24

GSDHO 25.000 17.03.08 0,80

20.000

24.04.08 1,46

36.500

16.500 82%

170 38

GUBRF 3.077 08.04.08 6,50

20.000

24.04.08 9,40

28.923 8.923 44%

147 16

VESBE 5.882 05.05.08 3,4020.000

06.06.08 4,02

23.647 3.647 18%

131 32

FENER 400 09.06.08 50,0020.000

09.07.08

90,00

36.000

16.000 79%

168 30

AKBNK 5.128 01.07.08 3,90

20.000

29.09.08 6,35

32.564

12.564 62%

158 90

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MARKET OUTLOOK (as of February 9, 2010)

We are bullish with (+2)% rise @XU100 for short term. More bearish than January in mid term. Our top mid term recommendations: THYAO, PETKM.

Short Term :XU100: Narrow band movements with limited profits

Medium Term: XU100 : We are bearish, with weak indicators

USDTL: Downtrend is ended with more positive momentumXU100 / USD: Limited momentum, bearish market

HIGHLIGHTS:

Short Term : (*) BUY TUPRS: Oversold market necessitates a correction BUY BIMAS: Need of a correction with strong indicators

Medium Term: (*) • BUY

THYAO : A strong uptrend since 10 months. Stock currently draws a risk-free formation but daily corrections needed for an healthy uptrend PETKM : Indicators tend to be near “1” level

• SELL BIMAS: An horizontal trend slightly negative

TUPRS: Oversold with mixed indicator signals

ISE-30 Relative Medium Term : (*)

• Outperform by %15 – %20:TUPRS: A very promising formation is in the making over the last 3 months with our favoured indicators rising since June.

• Outperform by %20 – %25:THYAO: Higher momentum in last 6 months and the stock makes a new high every month over the last 6 months

• Peer Trade in Medium Term: (*)• Outperform by %10 – %15:

SELL TUPRS / BUY PETKM : A new uptrend in PETKM is likely lead Tupras shares to perform better relative to TUPRS• Outperform by %20 – %25:

SELL ISCTR / BUY THYAO : Sacrifice a good stock for a better one. High possibilty for double digit gain for THYAO relative to ISCTR gain

(*) in the order of our conviction levels (higher to lower)

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RECOMMENDATIONS CONVICTION LEVEL (as of February 9, 2010)

Short

term target

RECOM. Conviction

level

Medium term target

RECOM. Conviction

level

XU100 3.0 - 3.5 % BUY 80/100 (-) 10 - 15 % SELL 80/100

BIMAS 3.0 – 4.0 % BUY 80/100 (-) 5 -10 % SELL 75/100

PETKM 5.0 – 6.0 % BUY 80/100 (+) 10 - 15 % BUY 85/100

THYAO 2.0 – 3.0 % BUY 85/100 (+) 25 - 35 % BUY 85/100

TUPRS 5.0 – 7.0 % BUY 80/100 (-) 7 - 10 % SELL 70/100

USDYTL 0.5 – 1.0 % BUY 80/100 (+) 30 - 40 % BUY 75/100

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MARKET VIEW (as of February 9, 2010)

XU100. DAILY

Short Term Expectations:• Oversold conditions ended: we are in a reaction days.• Our last call has been a “BUY” delivered @ 49.750• What we expect for a “SELL” signal:

• at least 3 days consolidation • smooth movements on pirce averages

Our propre priority momentum indicator eases market trend analysis notably

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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: TUPRS (Short Term View – BUY)

• Indicator is at new low since december.09 but averages are near “0”: bullish after -10% deviation from moving averages.

• Our favoured “C-system” methodology has given a BUY signal on TRL 27.25 and continues remain bullish

Exhibit: Daily Price Chart vs. Our Recommendatiostillns

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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: TUPRS (Long Term View - SELL)

• We are “BEARISH” after excessive price movements

• Our favoured “C-system” methodology has given a SELL signal on TRL 32.50 and continues remain bearish

Exhibit: Monthly Price Chart vs. Our Recommendations

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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: BIMAS (Short Term View – BUY)

• We are less “BULLISH”: indicator and its moving averages are under “0” but stock is oversold.



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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: BIMAS (Long Term View - SELL)

• We are “BEARISH” : we expect prices dropping to moving average (1)

• Our favoured “C-system” methodology has given a SELL signal on TRL 73.50 and continues remain bearish


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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: PETKM (Short Term View – BUY)

• BULLISH: Oversold market with indicator averages above “0”



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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: PETKM (Long Term View - BUY)

• We are “BULLISH” : indicator’s moving averages still rise and stock price is not overbought

• Our favoured “C-system” methodology has given a BUY signal on TRL6.40 and continues remain bullish


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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: THYAO (Short Term View – BUY)

• BULLISH: Indicator’s average (blue line) is very good sign of market trend and it tries to move to “0”



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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: THYAO (Long Term View - BUY)

• We are “BULLISH” : indicator’s moving average (line 1) is very strong –near “1”

• Our favoured “C-system” methodology has given a BUY signal on TRL0.75 and continues remain bullish


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Economy & Finance

Techview June