TURKISH EQUITY MARKETS“BEARS ON PLAY”

(June 29, 2010)

2

TR BOND (as of June 29, 2010)

BOND. MONTHLY

Medium Term Expectations:• Excessive price movements unconfirmed by indicators are trading opportunities• We expect a rise in interest rates and still keep our “SELL” position for “10.50” target.

3

TR BOND (as of June 29, 2010)

BOND.daily

Short Term Expectations:• We see: “expanding price movements” that indicates “fluctuations” • We expect interest rates going to “9.00 – 9.05” level for the indicator (optimized) is stronger than previous days

4

MARKET VIEW (as of June 29, 2010)

XU100. MONTHLY

Long Term Expectations:

• We are more “BEARISH” with June peak (lower than May peak)• Last signal is a “SELL” dated on June.2010 (@ 57.000)• We will see more fluctuations around average (more sell & buy signal)

1

2

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MARKET VIEW (as of June 29, 2010)

XU030/USD MONTHLY

Long Term Expectations:

• “BEARISH” pattern (worst than XU100/TL graphic)• Overbought conditions: support expected @30.000• Last signal as “SELL” in Apr.10 (@ 50.500)• Trend duration expected: 3-6 months

6

MARKET VIEW (as of June 29, 2010)

USD/TL MONTHLY

• We are more “BULLISH” as long as blue curve (1) stay above “0” level • Last signal as “BUY” in September.09 (@ 1.4650)• We expect to be more “BULLISH” as long as USD/TL stays over 1.5550 in June

1

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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: VIX030 daily (as of June 29, 2010)

• Correction after excessive movements: although the indicator made new high of last days, high deviation from price average is “bullish” sign

• We expect price approaching to its moving average (first step)

• Our favoured “C-system” methodology has given a last signal as a BUY on 69.400 and continues remain bullish

Exhibit: Daily Chart vs. Our Recommendations

2

1

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HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: VIX030 hourly (as of June 29, 2010)

• We are more “BULLISH”

• We think the market is oversold (intraday)

• Our favoured “C-system” methodology has given a last signal as a BUY on 69.400 and continues to remain bullish

Exhibit: Hourly Chart vs. Our Recommendations

2

1

9

BalticDRY vs ISE INDUSTRIALS (as of June 29, 2010) • We choose another indicator to analyze indexes ratio• The ratio has blurry signals: see the indicator near “0” : sign of horizantal trend.• Falling BDRY index limit ISE.IND positive momentum (they are highly correlated)• We think it will reach “0.11” level in 2010

Indexes are strongly correlated: R^2=0.82

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RECOMMENDATIONS CONVICTION LEVEL (as of June 29, 2010)

Short

term target

RECOM. Conviction

level

Medium term target

RECOM. Conviction

level

XU100 (+) 1.5 - 2.5 % BUY 80/100 (-) 20 - 25 % SELL 80/100

BIMAS (+) 4.0 – 5.0 % BUY 80/100 (+) 25 -30 % BUY 80/100

PETKM (+) 3.0 – 4.0 % BUY 75/100 (+) 20 - 25 % BUY 85/100

THYAO (+) 3.0 – 4.0 % BUY 85/100 (-) 15 - 20 % SELL 85/100

TUPRS (+) 2.0 – 3.0 % BUY 75/100 (+) 15 - 20 % BUY 75/100

USDYTL (+) 1.0 – 2.0 % BUY 80/100 (+) 15 - 20 % BUY 80/100

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RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE SUMMARY (as of June 29, 2010)

Quarterly Performance• Our model portfolio outperformed XU100 performance by 937% with high volume equities • We invested with equal capital to equities• Double digit gains relative to XU100 every quarter (47% on period average) (*)• Every period 4-5 equities are recommended to beat XU100• 8-10 transactions / quarter (average period for every equity is one quarter)• Max drawdown (occured at Q1.08): -24% (7 out of 28 recoms with negative performance)• portfolio performance average / portfolio standard deviation = 0,55• market performance average / market standard deviation = 0.14

* See next pages for details

AVERAGE GAIN / STD. DEVIATION

0,14

0,55

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

Model Portfolio Index

CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE

-1%

937%936%

-200%

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

Model Portfolio Index Relative

COMPARED PERFORMANCE CURVES

1036

99

100

17916912585

809

9548656370,24919875

100

1

10

100

1000

10000

2007 Q1.08 Q2.08 Q3.08 Q4.08 2009 2010

Model PortfolioXU100

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RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE TABLE (as of June 29, 2010)

2008 (Q1) 2008 (Q2) 2008 (Q3) 2008 (Q4) 2009 2010 (YTD)

TCELL -%13 %5

TUPRS -%14 %9

EREGL -% 9

ASYAB -%24

IHEVA %43

EREGL %50

GUBRF %98 %24

BAGFS %35

ISCTR %34

VAKBN %34 %264

YKBNK %38 %32

AKBNK %54

KCHOL %17 %24

PETKM %5 %39

THYAO -%14 %438

GARAN -%15

TTKOM -%9 %22

KOZAA %423

ARCLK %285

XU100 -%42 -%11 %3 -%34 %97 %5

Sample selected from high volume equities

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RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE ( 2008 )

Cumulative yield for a given period

Capital 100.000 TRL      

Period 02.01.08 01.10.08 273 days

System

100.000 TRL

216.002 TRL 116%  

Transa. 36      

Commi. 0,3% 2.388 TRL    

Net 100.000 TRL

213.614 TRL 114%  

XU100 54.708 36.051 -34%  

Relative     148%  

* See next pages for details

PERFORMANCE CURVE

214

66

201

120

137

157

182

110

9581 85

76 7965

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

01.08 02.08 03.08 04.08 05.08 06.08 07.08 08.08 09.08

PORTFOLIOXU100

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RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE TABLE (daily -2008)

Transactions table

lot date buy cost date sell cost P/L %0,3%

day

GUBRF 8.621 02.01.08 2,32

20.000

10.01.08 3,24

27.931 7.931 39%

144 8

TUPRS 620 07.01.08 32,25

20.000

11.01.08

35,25

21.860 1.860 9%

126 4

TCELL 2.151 22.01.08 9,3020.000

25.01.08

10,50

22.581 2.581 12%

128 3

AKBNK 3.175 22.01.08 6,30

20.000

04.02.08 6,85

21.746 1.746 8%

125 13

OZGYO 8.264 22.01.08 2,42

20.000

30.01.08 3,00

24.793 4.793 23%

134 8

THYAO 2.837 31.01.08 7,05

20.000

05.02.08 7,65

21.702 1.702 8%

125 5

ASYAB 5.634 08.02.08 3,55

20.000

27.02.08 4,40

24.789 4.789 23%

134 19

GARAN 4.878 08.02.08 4,10

20.000

15.02.08 4,80

23.415 3.415 16%

130 7

THYAO 14.925 08.02.08 1,34

20.000

19.02.08 1,45

21.642 1.642 8%

125 11

HALKB 2.837 11.02.08 7,05

20.000

14.02.08 8,00

22.695 2.695 13%

128 3

OZGYO 8.163 11.02.08 2,45

20.000

21.02.08 3,04

24.816 4.816 23%

134 10

GUBRF 6.623 15.02.08 3,02

20.000

10.03.08 6,10

40.397

20.397 101%

181 24

GSDHO 25.000 17.03.08 0,80

20.000

24.04.08 1,46

36.500

16.500 82%

170 38

GUBRF 3.077 08.04.08 6,50

20.000

24.04.08 9,40

28.923 8.923 44%

147 16

VESBE 5.882 05.05.08 3,4020.000

06.06.08 4,02

23.647 3.647 18%

131 32

FENER 400 09.06.08 50,0020.000

09.07.08

90,00

36.000

16.000 79%

168 30

AKBNK 5.128 01.07.08 3,90

20.000

29.09.08 6,35

32.564

12.564 62%

158 90

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CONTACT DETAILS

Cem Şengezer

Technical & Quantitative Analyst System Developer

GSM: 0533 244 23 63E-mail: cem.sengezer@gmail.com