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U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
2017 starts off strong with wide-
reaching gains
U.S. employment situation: January 2017 February 3, 2017
January 2017 employment summary
• Employment growth bounces back across sectors
- January saw 227,000 net new jobs, a return to the stronger form seen in 2014 and 2015, but still volatile on a monthly basis. Growth was
found across sectors, with retail trade, PBS, construction, leisure, health and finance all recording monthly increases in excess of 30,000
jobs.
- Unemployment rose for the second consecutive month and now sits at 4.8 percent, boosted by an increase in the labor force participation
rate to 62.9 percent. However, the expansion of the civilian labor force is not keeping up with job growth, which will keep slack minimal in
the near-term.
- Job openings have stabilized at around the 5.3-million mark in recent months and have risen by 6.2 percent over the year. Although hiring
figures have stayed consistent, quits are up at an even higher 7.1 percent, indicating that employees have strong confidence in the job
market.
• Wages are still up, but growing slower
- Wage growth slowed to 2.5 percent after hitting a cycle high 2.8 percent in December, in part due to larger sectors such as PBS and
education and health seeing slower wage growth. Even with inflation jumping to 2.1 percent, earnings are still outpacing the increase in the
cost of goods and services, encouraging spending and in turn GDP growth.
- Rising costs of goods and services are beginning to have effects on consumer confidence, which slipped from a 15-year high reached in
December to 109.4 points. The short-term outlook for spending is still positive, as wages will continue to rise on the back of near-full
employment.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
January 2017 U.S. labor market at a glance
+227,000(76 consecutive months
of growth)1-month net change
+2,343,000(+1.6% y-o-y)
12-month change
+787,00010-year average annual growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.8%Unemployment rate
-10bp12-month change in unemployment
62.9%Labor force participation rate
5,522,000(+6.2% y-o-y)
Job openings
5,219,000(-0.6% y-o-y)
Hires
3,064,000(+7.1% y-o-y)
Quits
3
January broke the 200,000-job mark for the first time in four
month with 227,000 net new jobs
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
0011
0,00
088
,000 10
6,00
012
2,00
022
1,00
018
3,00
016
4,00
0 196,
000
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
0011
0,00
088
,000
160,
000
150,
000
161,
000
225,
000
203,
000
214,
000
197,
000
280,
000
141,
000
203,
000
199,
000
201,
000
149,
000
202,
000
164,
000
237,
000 27
4,00
084
,000
166,
000
188,
000 22
5,00
033
0,00
023
6,00
028
6,00
024
9,00
021
3,00
0 250,
000
221,
000
423,
000
329,
000
221,
000 26
5,00
084
,000
251,
000
273,
000
228,
000
277,
000
150,
000
149,
000
295,
000
280,
000
262,
000
168,
000
233,
000
186,
000
277,
000
24,0
0027
1,00
025
2,00
017
6,00
0 208,
000
135,
000
164,
000
157,
000
227,
000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
4
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
For the second consecutive month, unemployment rose on the
back of increasing participation; now stands at 4.8 percent
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
Job openings appear to have stabilized around the 5.3 million
mark in recent months as labor-market slack dissipates
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Job
open
ings
(th
ousa
nds)
2.4%
2.4%
2.6%
2.7%
2.7%
3.2%
3.6%
3.8%
4.4%
4.6%
4.7%
1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
Mining and logging
Government
Manufacturing
Construction
Information
Other services
Trade, transportation and utilities
Financial activities
Leisure and hospitality
Professional and business services
Education and health
Job openings rate
Job openings rates by industry have also begun to level off, led
by health, education, PBS and leisure
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Hire
s an
d qu
its (
thou
sand
s)
Hires Quits
Quits continue to rise with no sign of slowing, mirroring
employee and consumer confidence boosts
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Wage growth dipped to 2.5 percent from a cycle high of 2.8
percent in December, but continues to outpace rising inflation
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e
Hourly wage growth CPI growth
0.7%
1.9%
2.4%
2.4%
2.5%
2.9%
3.0%
3.2%
3.9%
4.2%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Financial activities
Education and health
Professional and business services
Trade, transportation and utilities
Other services
Manufacturing
Mining and logging
Construction
Information
Leisure and hospitality
12-month % change in wages
Slower growth in financial, education, health and PBS wages
largely responsible for dip in rate of wage growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – office-using sectors in red
10
The labor force participation rate rose by 20bp to 62.9 percent,
bringing it back to early 2016 levels
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Labo
r fo
rce
part
icip
atio
n ra
te (
%)
Despite rising participation, job growth continues to outpace
expansion in the labor force, leading to market tightening
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e
Civilian labor force Total non-farm
-10.0
-4.0
-1.0
-0.6
3.0
3.0
3.3
4.0
5.0
6.0
14.8
16.0
24.0
32.0
32.1
34.0
36.0
39.0
45.9
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Government
Transportation and warehousing
Nondurable goods
Utilities
Information
Wholesale trade
Motor vehicles and parts
Mining and logging
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Temporary help services
Other services
Education and health services
Financial activities
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Construction
Professional and business services
Retail trade
1-month net change (thousands)
Retail and construction bounced back for robust cross-sector
gains over the month
13
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-56.0
-53.0
-46.0
0.1
4.0
7.0
14.3
35.5
70.0
94.1
107.5
162.0
170.0
190.0
229.0
347.0
471.6
556.0
574.0
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Mining and logging
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Utilities
Information
Nondurable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Wholesale trade
Other services
Temporary help services
Transportation and warehousing
Government
Construction
Financial activities
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
574.0
556.0
347.0
229.0
190.0
447.0
PBS Education and health
Leisure and hospitality Retail trade
Financial activities Manufacturing
All other jobs
Rebounds in recent months have made PBS the leader in
annual employment growth once again
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
Core subsectors added 80.9 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
for
bach
elor
’s d
egre
e ho
lder
s (%
)Unemployment for bachelor’s degree holders remains at a
cyclical low of 2.5 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Upward revisions to financial services and sustained PBS gains
improving office-using stability
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
Deregulation expected to keep energy on the rebound, while
tech remains steady at 4.6 percent
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through December 2016
17
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e (jo
bs)
Unemployment claims data very strong: for three consecutive
weeks, the moving average has stayed below 250,000
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
18
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Cla
ims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Con
sum
er c
onfid
ence
Inde
xAfter hitting 15-year high in December, consumer confidence
slipped in January
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
19
Even though tech is beginning to cool off and normalize to new
growth rates, Seattle and Silicon Valley remain leaders in jobs
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
Silicon
Valley
3.4%
Orlando
4.2%
Denver
3.3%
Dallas
3.3%
Salt Lake
City
3.4%
Seattle-
Bellevue
3.4%
Increasing participation and expansion of the civilian labor
force pushed total unemployment up 20bp to 9.4 percent
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Tot
al u
nem
ploy
men
t (%
)
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
©2016 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
Ryan Severino
Chief Economist - Americas Research
Phil Ryan
Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research