U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

Another 288,000 jobs added in June

signal sustained and broad growth

U.S. employment situation: June 2014 July 7, 2014

What were June’s bright spots and challenges?

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

• Total non-farm employment

increased by 288,000 jobs, the fifth

consecutive month of growth of

more than 200,000 net new jobs.

• Unemployment declined yet again,

this time to 6.1 percent.

• The national economy now has

415,000 more jobs than at its pre-

recession peak.

• June’s employment growth was

highly diverse, with the top three

markets contributing only one-half of

new jobs and all but two subsectors

being net contributors.

• Year-on-year, the story is still led by

core subsectors such as PBS,

although this is beginning to change

as well.

• Private sector hiring is up 4.8 million

jobs compared to two years ago,

while increases in public sector

employment have also become more

apparent.

• Unemployment for high school grads

fell dramatically to 5.8 percent, while

white-collar unemployment is stable

at 3.3 percent and will likely not move

much lower.

• Initial unemployment insurance

claims continue to hover around

310,000 per week, another sign of an

improving labor market.

• As unemployment falls, consumer

confidence is rising; the index

jumped to 85.2 points in June.

• Similarly, online help wanted ads are

on the rise.

• Midwestern and East Coast

geographies continue to grapple

with below-average employment

growth, some still contracting.

• The labor force participation rate is

stuck at its record low of 62.8

percent.

• Total unemployment dropped by

only 10 basis points to 12.1 percent

and is still double the official rate of

6.1 percent.

• Although office-using jobs saw a

slight comeback in June, their

contribution remains smaller than

earlier in the recovery.

• Non-durable goods slowing down

goods-producing employment.

• High school graduate participation

fell to 57.8 percent.

Overview Bright spots Challenges

OVERVIEW

July saw the fifth consecutive month of more than 200,000

new net jobs, with revisions boosting previous growth 22

0,00

0

121,

000

120,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

144,

000

222,

000

201,

000

304,

000

224,

000

288,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Oct

-10

Dec

-11

Feb

-11

Apr

-11

Jun-

11

Aug

-11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Apr

-12

Jun-

12

Aug

-12

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Apr

-13

Jun-

13

Aug

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Feb

-14

Apr

-14

Jun-

14

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge


3

OVERVIEW

As a result, the national economy has added 816,000 jobs over

the past three months; unemployment down to 6.1 percent

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


4

OVERVIEW

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80

1973 1981 1990 2001 2007

There are now 415,000 more jobs than at the previous peak,

an increase of 0.3 percent

Rec

over

ed jo

bs (

%)

Past recessions (40 years)


Pre-recession employment level

5

OVERVIEW

-6.0

-1.0

0.0

4.0

6.0

9.0

10.1

12.1

15.1

16.0

16.6

17.0

17.0

26.0

33.7

38.0

39.0

40.2

67.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Other services

Nondurable goods

Utilities

Mining and logging

Construction

Information

Temporary help services

Motor vehicles and parts

Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

Transportation and warehousing

Financial activities

Durable goods

Government

Health care and social assistance

Education and health services

Leisure and hospitality

Retail trade

Professional and business services

1-month net change (thousands)

Growth was highly diverse in June, with the top three

subsectors contributing only half of new jobs this month…


6

OVERVIEW

PBS

Retail trade


All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

50.8 percent of

monthly

growth.

-28.0

-2.8

5.0

38.0

43.0

56.0

59.0

72.2

125.0

130.0

138.7

140.2

186.0

215.9

316.8

324.3

378.0

393.0

647.0

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Information

Utilities

Nondurable goods

Other services

Mining and logging

Government


Motor vehicles and parts

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Transportation and warehousing

Wholesale trade

Construction

Temporary help services

Retail trade

Health care and social assistance

Education and health services


Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS


Education and health

Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

…helping to broaden year-on-year gains slightly, although

PBS, leisure, health and retail trade remain in the front seat


7

Core subsectors added 77.1 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

OVERVIEW

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Change in '000s jobs

Public-sector hiring, which had posted drop-offs earlier this

year and in late 2012, is now a net contributor

Private sector hiring up 4.8

million since June 2012

Public sector shed 15,000 workers

since June 2012


8

BRIGHT SPOT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

Unemployment for high school grads drops to 5.8 percent;

stability for white-collar unemployment indicates saturation

3.3%

5.8%


9

BRIGHT SPOT

Total non-farm now stable at 1.8 percent for the third

consecutive month; tech still leads by a wide margin

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through May 2014.

10

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

BRIGHT SPOT

Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in

recent months, while energy picks up a bit in recent months

Year-on-year percent employment growth


11

BRIGHT SPOT

Initial unemployment insurance claims are declining slowly and

averaging only 310,000 claims per week

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

12

BRIGHT SPOT

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

Con

sum

er c

onfid

ence

inde

x

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

On the heels of falling unemployment and stronger monthly job

growth, consumer confidence reaches recovery high of 85.2

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

13

BRIGHT SPOT

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

Onl

ine

help

wan

ted

ads

Online help wanted ads

Unemployment rate

Online help wanted ads increase as unemployment decreases,

signaling employer confidence in the labor market

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board

14

BRIGHT SPOT

Year-on-year job growth of more than 3.5 percent is becoming

increasingly common in many metro areas


15

BRIGHT SPOT

Orlando

4.5%

Raleigh-

Durham

4.1% Silicon Valley

4.0%

Dallas

3.8%

Austin

3.5%

Still, some markets, particularly on the East Coast and in the

Midwest, are in slow-growth mode


16

CHALLENGE

Hampton Roads

-0.3%

Detroit

-0.3%

New Jersey

0.0%

Westchester

County

0.5%

Washington,

DC

0.5%

The labor force participation is stuck at 62.8 percent, a record

low for decades


17

CHALLENGE

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

Total unemployment is stubbornly high at 12.1 percent, but is

slowly decreasing and approaching the 10-year average

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


18

CHALLENGE

One-third of jobs added in June were office-using category,

an increase from previous months but still below average


19

CHALLENGE

Office-using gains have been less consistent of late than earlier

in the recovery, reducing year-on-year growth to 2.3 percent

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In June 2014, it represented all 23.3 percent of new office jobs.


20

CHALLENGE

Goods-producing employment remains low, averaging only

38,667 new jobs per month in 2012

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


21

CHALLENGE

As with the overall economy, labor force participation in both

college and high school grads is falling


22

CHALLENGE

55.0%

56.0%

57.0%

58.0%

59.0%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

70.0%

71.0%

72.0%

73.0%

74.0%

75.0%

76.0%

77.0%

78.0%

79.0%

80.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hig

h sc

hool

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Col

lege

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Bachelor's degree High school, no college

Temporary help services nears 2.9 million jobs, growing at 8.1

percent year-on-year

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

2,600.0

2,800.0

3,000.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


23

CHALLENGE

©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

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Economy & Finance

U.S. employment rate data and trends June 2014