Upload
jll
View
408
Download
2
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January. This growth number is below average, but dropped the unemployment rate 10 basis points to a recovery low of 6.6 percent. In a bright spot, unemployment for high school and college graduates is lower, however labor-force participation in this key demographic is still suppressed. Total unemployment sits at 12.7 percent, above historic norms but an improvement from December’s 13.1. See details on the data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Jones Lang LaSalle.
Citation preview
U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013
Below-average monthly gains mask a broadening recovery
U.S. employment situation: January 2013 Release date: February 7, 2014
What were January’s bright spots and challenges?
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
OVERVIEW
• The U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January, representing below-average growth.
• The unemployment rate dropped by 10 basis points to a recovery low of 6.6 percent.
• Total non-farm employment is at 99.4 percent of its previous peak figure.
• 90.1 of the 8.7 million jobs lost during the recession have been recovered.
• Construction was the subsector with the highest monthly growth, while PBS led year-on-year gains.
• Tech remains the dominant industry for job growth, with energy at national levels.
• Unemployment for high school and college graduates is below the official rate of 6.6 percent.
• Although wobbling, initial claims remain near recovery lows and below the 400,000-claim threshold for an expanding economy.
• Bucking the trend seen in previous months, office-using industries’ share of gains up to 30.0 percent in January.
• Consumer confidence is up at 80.7 points on the heels of a diversifying recovery.
• Geographically, growth is being seen increasingly outside of Texas and tech hubs.
• Total unemployment remains above historic norms at 12.7 percent.
• Labor force participation for high school and college graduates, although up, is still suppressed.
• The public sector witnessed its largest monthly contraction in employment (-29,000 jobs) since late 2012.
• Office-using growth continues to be subdued, with flat information payrolls and a 2,000-job contraction in financial activities.
• Temporary help services continues to grow, almost at 2.8 million jobs.
Overview Bright spots Challenges
January posts a below-average monthly gain of 113,000 jobs; revisions show more stability in 2013
220,0
00
121,0
00
120,0
00
360,0
00
226,0
00
243,0
00
96,00
0 11
0,000
88
,000
106,0
00
122,0
00
221,0
00
183,0
00
164,0
00 196,0
00
360,0
00
226,0
00
243,0
00
96,00
0 11
0,000
88
,000
160,0
00
150,0
00
161,0
00
225,0
00
203,0
00
214,0
00
197,0
00
280,0
00
141,0
00
203,0
00
199,0
00
201,0
00
149,0
00
202,0
00
164,0
00
237,0
00 27
4,000
75
,000
113,0
00
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Oct-1
0No
v-10
Dec-1
1Ja
n-11
Feb-
11Ma
r-11
Apr-1
1Ma
y-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug-
11Se
p-11
Oct-1
1No
v-11
Dec-1
1Ja
n-12
Feb-
12Ma
r-12
Apr-1
2Ma
y-12
Jun-
12Ju
l-12
Aug-
12Se
p-12
Oct-1
2No
v-12
Dec-1
2Ja
n-13
Feb-
13Ma
r-13
Apr-1
3Ma
y-13
Jun-
13Ju
l-13
Aug-
13Se
p-13
Oct-1
3No
v-13
Dec-1
3Ja
n-14
1-mo
nth ne
t cha
nge
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3
OVERVIEW
Revisions bring three-month employment growth to 462,000 jobs, as unemployment declines to 6.6 percent
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Unem
ploym
ent r
ate (%
)
One-
month
net
chan
ge (t
hous
ands
)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4
OVERVIEW
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74
1973 1981 1990 2001 2007
75 months into the cycle, total employment is now less than 0.6 percent below prior peak levels
Reco
vere
d job
s (%
)
Past recessions (40 years)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Pre-recession employment level
5
OVERVIEW
Jobs lost during recession…
Jobs gained during recovery…
90.1 percent of jobs have been recovered from the recession; now 900,000 jobs below pre-recession peak
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
OVERVIEW
Office-using jobs lost during recession…
Office-using jobs gained during recovery…
All office-using jobs have been recovered, but are much more tech- and management-centered
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
OVERVIEW
-29.0 -12.9
-6.0 -2.0
0.0 1.5
4.0 6.0 6.5 7.0 8.1
9.9 13.9 15.0
21.0 24.0
36.0 48.0
-40 -20 0 20 40 60
GovernmentRetail trade
Education and health servicesFinancial activities
InformationHealth care and social assistance
Other servicesNondurable goods
Motor vehicles and partsMining and logging
Temporary help servicesTransportation and warehousing
Wholesale tradeDurable goodsManufacturing
Leisure and hospitalityProfessional and business services
Construction
1-month net change (thousands)
Construction, PBS, leisure and hospitality and manufacturing were the drivers of January’s growth…
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
OVERVIEW
Construction PBS
Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing
Four subsectors were responsible for all net new jobs.
What caused construction’s economy-leading gains in January? Residential building.
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Figures in thousands SECTOR FOCUS
13.2
12.9
10.1
8.3 3.6
64.9
Residential building Non-residential specialty contractorsHeavy and civil engineering Non-residential buildingResidential specialty contractors All other jobs
Construction accounted for 42.6 percent of growth in January… …but represents only 4.3 percent of employment nationally
Non-residential specialty contractors Residential specialty contractorsHeavy and civil engineering Non-residential buildingResidential building All other jobs
i Residential building represented to 11.7 percent of job growth in January… i …but is in fact the smallest component
of construction, with 646,000 workers.
9
-53.0 6.0 9.0
26.0 36.0 46.8
65.0 81.2 84.0 93.0 95.5
179.0 228.7
284.6 306.0 316.0
433.0 656.0
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
GovernmentInformation
Nondurable goodsOther services
Mining and loggingMotor vehicles and parts
Financial activitiesTransportation and warehousing
Durable goodsManufacturing
Wholesale tradeConstruction
Temporary help servicesHealth care and social assistance
Education and health servicesRetail trade
Leisure and hospitalityProfessional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS Leisure and hospitalityRetail trade Education and healthManufacturing Financial activitiesAll other jobs
…although PBS, leisure and hospitality, retail trade and education and health dominated year-on-year gains
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
OVERVIEW
Core subsectors added 83.5 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months.
Goods-producing employment jumps after slight contraction in December; service-providing slows
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
One-
month
net c
hang
e (tho
usan
ds)
Goods-producing Service-providing
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
BRIGHT SPOT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college
Both high school and college graduate unemployment below the national average
3.2%
6.5%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
BRIGHT SPOT
Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities growing, but at national rates of growth
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through December 2013.
13
12-m
onth
% ch
ange
OVERVIEW
Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent growth
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
BRIGHT SPOT
Initial unemployment insurance claims hovering between 330,000 and 350,000 since late 2013
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
Initial claims 4-week moving average
4 week moving average below 400,000 claims (consistently) means economy is adding jobs
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, U.S. Department of Labor
15
BRIGHT SPOT
While the recovery is broadening, slightly stronger growth boosted office-using industries’ share of gains
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
BRIGHT SPOT
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consumer confidence indexUnemployment rate
In line with a drop in unemployment, the consumer confidence index increased to 80.7 points in January
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
17
BRIGHT SPOT
Growth is registering in geographies outside of Texas and tech hubs
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
Silicon Valley 3.4%
BRIGHT SPOT
Phoenix 2.5% Atlanta
2.5%
Charlotte 2.6%
Houston 3.0%
Austin 2.8%
Seattle 2.6%
Although total unemployment fell by 60 basis points to 12.7 percent, it remains above average
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
CHALLENGE
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
58
59
60
61
62
63College graduatesHigh school grads no college
Labor force participation across educational attainment increases, but still suppressed
Colle
ge gr
adua
tes
High school graduates
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
CHALLENGE
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Change in '000s jobs
Public sector witnesses largest contraction since late 2012, while private sector growth below historic norms
Private sector hiring up 4.5 million since December 2011
Public sector shed 112,000 workers since November 2011
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
CHALLENGE
Information gains no jobs in January, while financial activities contracts by 2,000
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010. In January 2013, it represented all net new office-using jobs.
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
22
CHALLENGE
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Unem
ploym
ent r
ate
Onlin
e help
wan
ted ad
s
New help wanted adsUnemployment rate
Online help wanted ads fall by 56,800 in January despite a decrease in unemployment
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board
23
CHALLENGE
A slight slowdown in monthly growth keeps temporary help services just under 2.8 million jobs
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Month
ly ne
t cha
nge i
n job
s (ths
)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Temporary employment (ths)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
24
CHALLENGE
Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest of the country
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cleveland -0.6%
CHALLENGE
Milwaukee 0.6%
New Jersey 0.3%
St. Louis 0.6%
Detroit 0.8%
25
©2014 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research [email protected]
John Sikaitis Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research [email protected]
Phil Ryan Research Analyst [email protected]
In addition to unemployment reports, we regularly publish research on economic and other factors that impact commercial real estate. >> See all research