Local economic resilience and adaptability to long-term challenges

Adrian HealyCardiff University

Content

• What factors affect economic resilience?• How do we measure this?• How do we apply resilience to regional labour

markets?

Acknowledgement

Economic Crisis and the Resilience of Regions (ECR2)

• National level effects are strong, but resilience is also a regional and local phenomena

How did Europe fare (downturn + 3yrs)?

Resistance15%

Recovery23%

Upturn33%

No upturn28%

Features of Resilience

Business People

Place Community

Governance

4

What promotes resilience?Business

• A diverse economic base• sectors• markets• business models

• Innovation

5

People• Skills• Higher labour market

participation

Good governance

Community

• Lower levels of poverty/inequality• Social capital

Place

• Urban characteristics

Responses vs characteristics: goals and measurement issues

• (Un)employment• Wage levels and disposable incomes• Hours worked• Training and qualifications

• Maintaining employment/wages• Maintaining training• Risk of deepening divides

• Short–term vs long-term responses

But not just innate characteristics

Softer features Choices: Capacity, capability and willingness to act

• Shaped by actions of others

and context

• Self-organising vs dependent

• Informed and aware

(expectations)

• Availability of alternative paths

• Ability to learn

• The importance of adaptability

• The capacity, capability and willingness to act

• The presence of flexible policy instruments

• The role of choices and expectations

• The importance of place-based solutions

• Past choices constrain the present (and the future)

• The sharing of risk

Final Reflections• Significance of context (bivariate vs multivariate analysis)• Structure is undoubtedly important but do not overlook

the role of agency• Growth and resilience may not be the same thing• Risk that regional, firm and household coping strategies

leave them under-equipped for future development– Inability to replenish stocks– Long-lasting income effects– Significance of external support– Role for risk-sharing across territories

• Supporting the foundations for future resilience through promoting adaptive capacity

Thank you

Adrian Healy

Healya2@cardiff.ac.uk