RISK COMMUNICATION

AND HAZARDS

BY TONI SIPIC, PH.D.

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

CENTRAL WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY

Introduction

Risk

Risk Communication

Risk Governance and Preparedness

Challenges to Risk Communication

Information processing

Case Studies of Practices

Seismic Hazards Laws in California

Oso Landslide

Public Policy

Risk

Risk - condition in which there is a possibility

that persons or property could experience

adverse consequences

Risk communication addresses the exchange

of information, knowledge and attitudes

between decision makers, experts,

stakeholders, and the affected public and

focuses on concrete risk situations

Function of Risk

Communication

Communication prior to adverse events

Raise awareness

Encourage protective behavior

Inform to build up knowledge on hazards and risks

Inform to promote acceptance of risks and management

measures

Communication during the adverse events

Inform on how to behave during events

Warn of and trigger action to impending and current events

Communication after the adverse events

Reassure the audience (to reduce anxiety or ‘manage’

outrage)

Improve relationships (build trust, cooperation, networks)

Enable mutual dialogue and understanding

Preparedness Justification

For each additional person that is able to provide for their own needs, the burden on the emergency services is decreased by one

Public emergency preparedness equips individuals with the knowledge, skills, or resources necessary to increase their likelihood of survival and to minimize financial and other losses in the event of an emergency or disaster

Ordinary citizens who are empowered with these tools are better able to help themselves, their families, their neighbors, and their communities

IRGC, 2009

Challenges for Risk

Communication

CapHaz, 2009

Challenges for Seismic Risk

Communication

Hazard contexts vary nationwide

Risk communication contexts also vary in a variety of ways

Earthquakes range from infrequent to very rare for individual communities, and highly damaging earthquakes remain very rare

Regions, communities, groups, and individuals vary with respect to their earthquake experience

All earthquake forecasts and loss projections involve significant uncertainties, and those uncertainties also vary on a regional basis

Tierney, 2004

Challenges for Seismic Risk

Communication

Public perceptions and knowledge of the earthquake threat also vary as a function of such factors as socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and gender

Even in areas where awareness is high, that awareness only rarely leads to action

In general, the public is not well-informed, either with respect to the earthquake hazard or with respect to current and achievable levels of seismic safety

Earthquakes tend to be low on political agendas, except during periods immediately following significant disaster events

Since the events of September 11, 2001, earthquakes and other natural hazards must increasingly compete with homeland-security-related threats for public attention and dollarsTierney, 2004

Stages of Processing

Information

Exposure to the message

Attention to the message

Comprehension of the arguments and

conclusions presented in the message

Yielding to the message

Accepting the message

Information integration (which allows for

message retention)

Crisis and Risk Communications , 2014

Practices

Best practice case study: Seismic Hazards

Laws in California

Bad practice case study: Oso Landslide

Policy evolution of Seismic

Hazards Laws in California

Field Act and Garrison Act

Law passed in response to 1933 Long Beach

earthquake

Unreinforced Masonry Building Law

Law passed in response to 1984 Morgan Hill

earthquake

Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act of

1972

Law passed in response to 1971 San Fernando

Earthquake

Standardized Natural Hazards

Disclosure Statement

The Natural Hazards Disclosure Act, under Sec. 1103 of the California Civil Code states that real estate seller and brokers are legally required to disclose if the property being sold lies within one or more state or locally mapped hazard areas

A Special Flood Hazard Area

Dam Inundation

Very High Fire

Wildland fire

Earthquake Fault Zone

A Seismic hazard

Standardized Natural Hazards

Disclosure Statement

Standardized Natural Hazards

Disclosure Statement

California Seismic Hazards Zonation Program, 2014

Oso Landslide

Wikipedia, 2014

Oso Landslide

1990 Growth Management Act required

counties and cities to identify “geologically

hazardous areas,” including landslide areas

Development rules in landslide areas don’t

affect development that’s already been built

downslope

Local governments should consider buying out

homeownersSeattle Times, 2014

Oso Landslide

Previous slide events in the area in1949,

1951, 1967,1988 and 2006

Miller-Sias DOE report drew boundaries for

where groundwater could feed into the slope

and increase the risks of landslide

When issuing logging restrictions DNR used

outdated information

Seattle Times, 2014

Oso Landslide

Issues With Public Policy

Addressing Hazards

Healey and Malhotra (APSR 2009)

Voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering disaster relief spending

Voters punish incumbent presidential party for investing in disaster preparedness

These inconsistencies distort the incentives of public officials

Governments underinvest in disaster preparedness, causing substantial public welfare losses.

$1 spent on preparedness is worth about $15 in terms of the future damage it mitigates

Public Policy

Adverse events increase the salience of the

issue with the public

Evidence on increases in the demand for risk

prevention policies from empirical economics

literature

Love Canal and Cuyahoga River and toxics

legislation

Temperature and precipitation and Kyoto

Agreement

Nuclear Accidents and Nuclear Safety IEA

Oil spills and MARPOL

Thank you!

Questions?