19th Cent. Europe; Balance of Power, 1871-1890

Nineteenth Century EuropeThe Great Powers & the Balance of Power

1871-1890

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

“Long road…”or “...short slip?”

… much of the traditional historiography on the origins of the war has, quite simply, over-determined the event. Far from a ‘long road to catastrophe’, there was but a short slip. Such a conclusion does not tend to support those who still think of the war as an inevitable consequence of deep-seated great-power rivalries -- a predestined cataclysm. But it certainly

accords with the notion that the outbreak of war was an avoidable error.

Niall Ferguson, The War of the World, p. 91.


1914-1918; Unprecedented Casualties


“Hang the Kaiser!”


The Versailles Treaty/Diktat

Article 231. The Allied and Associated Governments affirm and Germany accepts the responsibility of Germany and her allies for causing all the loss and damage to which the Allied and Associated Governments and their nationals have been subjected as a consequence of the war imposed upon them by the aggression of Germany and her allies.


Russo-Turkish War, 1877-1878

PlevnaMemorial

Svobodna Bulgariya

LiberatedBulgaria


Bosnia &Herzegovina

Bulgaria

“the sick man”



Origins of the Russo-Turk War

the Tsar Liberator Alexander had to make the humiliating Peace of Paris, 1856, just after coming to the throne

Russia didn’t want to give up the role of protecting brother slavs the way they had been forced to give up “protector of Christians in the Holy Land”

August, 1875, BOS•ni•a & Her•ze•GO•vi•na began an insurrection against Turkish rule

To everyone’s surprise, Osman Pasha put down the revolt handily but with “Balkan atrocities”

Russia massed forces and invaded through Romania



Shipka Pass

CONSTANTINOPLE


the siege of Plevna, July-December, 1877Wednesday, November 11, 2009


tensions produce two notable slogans

We don’t want to fightBut, by jingo, if we doWe’ve got the ships, we’ve got the menWe’ve got the money too!

British music hall chorus, 1878origin of the term “jingoism”

“[the Balkans] are not worth the bones of a Pomeranian grenadier.”

Bismarck


The Congress of Berlin, 1878 by Anton von WernerIn the left foreground, Count Karolyi (Austria-Hungary), Prince Gorchakov, seated (Russia), and the

Earl of Beaconsfield (Disraeli). In the center foreground, Count Andrassy (A-H), Bismarck, and Count Shuvalov (Russia). In the right rear, with the bald head, Lord Salisbury, (Great Britain)


Bismarck offers to be “an honest broker”

Russia accepts:

exhausted by the unexpected rigors of the Turkish war

worried by the thought of war with Britain and Austria-Hungary

most distinguished diplomatic gathering between 1815 & 1919

Balkan peoples had unrealistic expectations--> disappointment

Serbs expected Bosnia & Herzegovina, instead A-H gets them

Romania has to surrender Bessarabia to Russia

Bulgaria greatly reduced in size

Greece furious that Britain gains Cyprus & Turkey keeps Crete & Epirus

seeds sown for future Balkan revisionism & wars


Changes made by the Congress


Russia and Turkey the most aggrieved

Turkey lost half its European territory and population

Russia’s Pan-Slavs had little to show for their country’s heavy expenditures in men and money

Bulgaria, the proposed springboard for future expansion, “a mere shadow of its former self”

Britain, without the loss of a man, gained Cyprus and strengthened its position over the Straits Question

Austria gained Bosnia and France was given a free hand in Tunis

Russia, mortified, blamed Bismarck


Alliance Systems


the fateful Dual Alliance, 1879

Bismarck, aware of Russian resentment, feared its rapprochement with republican France

he makes the treaty which will bind Germany to Austria-Hungary:mutual assistance if either is attacked by Russia

benevolent neutrality if either is attacked by another party

previous treaties had been concluded only during or on the eve of wars, or for specific purposes and restricted duration

this was “the first of the secret treaties whose contents were never fully known but always suspected”

this encouraged other powers to do likewise in self defense


Feinde ringsum-ringed by enemiesWednesday, November 11, 2009

“one of three on the European chessboard”

In 1881, Bismarck renewed the Dreikaiserbund“One must not lose sight of the importance of being one of three on the European chess-board. That is the invariable

objective of all cabinets and of mine above all others. Nobody wishes to be in a minority. All politics reduce

themselves to this formula: to try to be one of three, so long as the world is governed by an unstable equilibrium of five

Great Powers”Bismarck

The Five?

Br, Fr, Ger, Aus.-Hun.,Rus


Bismarck adds Italy, 1882

the alliance of 1881 effectively isolated France. She might have reached out to Italy, but…

chose to seize Tunis instead.

Italy then approached Bismarck, who referred them to Austria

although Italy wanted to take the Trentino and Trieste from Austria, she still felt the French threat required coming to terms with the ancient enemy


Italia irredenta (unredeemed Italy)

Irredentism grew out of the Risorgimento (the unification movement) 1820s-1866

as Italy tried to establish a constitutional monarchy, these foreign policy claims were debated in the Assembly

the claims were partially realized in 1919

Mussolini would push even further


terms of the Triple Alliance, 1882

Italy was assured of German and Austrian aid if attacked by France

Italy was obligated to aid Germany if she were attacked by France

she was also obliged to go to war if either Germany or Austria were

attacked by two or more powers

French resentment eventually took the form of a tariff war that had ruinous

effects in Italy

Bismarck had improved Germany’s security immeasurably


The Bulgarian Crisis, 1886-87


The Bulgarian Crisis

after the Treaty of Berlin (1878) created Bulgaria as an autonomous state under the Ottomans, Alexander became its ruler

although nephew to the tsar, he took a Bulgarian nationalist stance

the issue was an Austrian railway project, the Orient Express line

Russia felt the Bulgarians were ungrateful for Russia’s role in their creation

two events in 1885 sparked the crisis:

the annexation of Eastern Rumelia

a successful war with with Serbia

Prince Alexander v. Battenberg (1857-1879-1886-1893)


Russia’s response

fearing total loss of control over Bulgaria, Russia fomented a conspiracy in the Bulgarian army

in August, 1886, Alexander was deposed and exiled

the other Great Powers were alarmed at Russia’s attempt to make Bulgaria a complete satellite and choose her next ruler

the Bulgarian Assembly resisted and ultimately chose an even more pro-Austrian ruler, Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg

the Three Emperors’ League of 1881 was almost terminated

Russia seemed ready to use force on Bulgaria and Austria prepared military countermeasures


Bismarck’s Dilemma

he knew if it came to war between his two allies he must choose Austria

but he feared hinting this to Russia because the Pan-Slavs were already hinting at a French alliance

in the fall of 1886 this was especially threatening because of the Boulanger crisis

the French general headed a nationalist movement which advocated taking back the lost provincesGeneral Georges Ernest Boulanger

(1837-1891)


Bismarck’s solution

fearing a two-front war, he felt he had to appear to support the tsar’s Bulgarian ambitions

but he needed to secretly see they were not realized

all his skill and guile was necessary

to scare France he engineered an army increase from 427,000 to 468,000

the renewal of the Triple Alliance, February, 1887 also sobered France

next he had to undo Russia’s Balkan plansin his study, 1886


The First Mediterranean Agreement, 12 February 1887

an Italian admission during the alliance talks that Italy had Balkan ambitions of her own, led Bismarck to suggest they seek support in Vienna and London

in March, 1887 this produced the first Mediterranean Agreement:

Italy, Austria-Hungary (4 March) & Great Britain promised mutual support in case of disagreement with a fourth power (France or Russia)

conservative Br PM Lord Salisbury wanted support against France for Britain’s moves in Egypt

he also sought to “put a shot across Russia’s bows” in the Balkans

so Bismarck was able to deter Russia without “leaving fingerprints”


The Reinsurance Treaty; June, 1887

pledged Germany and Russia to benevolent neutrality in the event the other was at war

exceptions, conflicts arising from:

a Russian attack on Austria

a German attack on France

so there was no conflict with the Dual Alliance, a defensive alliance

but secret clauses made it less morally defensible:

Germany promised to support Russian interests in Bulgaria and the Straits

before the year was out, Bismarck was encouraging a second Mediterranean Agreement (December, 1887)

therein Britain, Italy & Austria guaranteed the status quo in

the Near East, Bulgaria, Asia Minor and the Straits


economic and military factors in the Bulgarian crisis

economic motives and moves:

Austrian ambitions and Russian fears were the background to Alexander’s policies which spurred the conflict

this was the first occasion where railroad plans would “stir the pot” in Balkan and Near Eastern diplomacy

Bismarck ordered the Reichsbank to refuse to accept Russian securities as collateral in 1887 which weakened Russia financially and made her less willing to be aggressive in the Balkans

military meddling:

at the height of the crisis in 1887, the German military attache in Vienna encouraged Franz Josef to believe that Germany would support an Austrian war against Russia

Bismarck quickly squelched this false signal, but the German military, with the support of the General Staff, continued to play such a dangerous role in later crises


1888Dreikaiser Jahr

By the beginning of that year the troublesome Bulgarian crisis had finally been liquidated, and international tension had been relaxed. Bismarck could take satisfaction in the fact that his network of alliances... had been strengthened by Great Britain’s association with the junior members of the Triple Alliance. There was no immediate prospect of new troubles in Europe. The warmongers in France and the Pan-Slavs in Russia were in eclipse, and the attention of all powers was becoming increasingly absorbed in...areas far from the European center.

Craig, p. 261Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Education

19th Cent. Europe; Balance of Power, 1871-1890