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617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Who Is Gray?
Program and Market Evaluation Data
Employment
Placement RatesStudent Demand
Demographics
Wages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation
System
§ Program profiles
§ Program development
§ City targeting
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Acquisition analysis
§ Complex analytics
Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Enhanced Crosswalks
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 3
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries and Conversions
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings: Medical and Health Services Managers
3. Program of the Month: Health Care Administration
4. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 4
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.§ Declining unemployment rate
§ Falling interest in post-secondary education
§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 5
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Inquiries fell faster this year, average monthly volume is off by 11% year-over-year.
-11%
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 6
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
August volume dropped 9%, slightly better than the 2017 average.
-9%
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 7
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Conversion Maturity
It takes several months for inquiries to convert.
§ It took until May for conversions of January inquiries to beat last year.
-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
10%
Month 1 January
Month 2 February
Month 3 March
Month 4 April
Month 5 May
Month 6 June
Month 7 July
Month 8 August
Conversion of 2017 January InquiriesVersus 2016 January Conversions
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 8
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2017, conversion rates are well above our 2014 baseline.§ Q2 2017 beat the baseline by 25%.
§ Q2 inquiries will continue to convert.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
+25%
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 9
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For May inquiries, total conversions increased 10% year-over-year.§ June and July 2017 have already reached 2016 levels.
§ August is also likely to pass last year’s volumes.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017
+10% YoY
Immature Months1
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 10
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.752016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.492017 $45.39 $45.30 $45.50 $45.36 $45.51 $45.76 $45.26 $44.65 $- $- $- $-
$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
For the first time in 2017, the average price of an external inquiry was below $45.§ In August, prices were nearly flat year-over year.
§ August is the lowest price this year.
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
+0.3%
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 11
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Business Admin: Bachelor's +
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
Business Admin: Associate's
Psychology, General
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist
Health Care Administration
Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and …
HVAC Maintenance Technology
Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller
10 Largest Inquiry Budgets(August 2017)
Among the 10 largest programs, Medical Assisting had the highest spending on inquiries.
Index to Max
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 12
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Psychology, General
Health Care Administration
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist
Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and …
Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information …
Business Admin: Bachelor's +
Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
Business Admin: Associate's
Medical/Clinical Assistant
August 2017 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets
§ Spending increased for more than half of the 10 largest programs.
The program with the largest budget, Medical Assisting, decreased 12% YoY in August 2017.
% Change YoY
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 13
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings: Medical and Health Services Managers
3. Program of the Month: Health Care Administration
4. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 14
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Inquiries for Online Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs shrank less than 1% year-over-year in August.§ This is positive news after an 11% decline in July.
§ Plus, August 2016 was a very tough month to beat–it was up 15% over August 2015 and had the most online inquiries since January 2014.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017-1% YoY
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 15
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online higher education programs increased 89% in May.§ This is the tenth consecutive increase in conversions.
§ June and July have already grown compared to last year.
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiry Conversions for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
+89% YoY
Immature Months1
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 16
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs have continued their decline.
§ In August, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 12% year-over-year.
2012
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017
-12% YoY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 17
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs fell 10% year-over-year in May.§ This marks the ninth consecutive month of declining conversions.
§ June and July have a lot of ground to make up.
§ But, August is off to a good start.
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels
2015 2016 2017
-10% YOY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
Immature Months1
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 18
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings: Medical and Health Services Managers
3. Program of the Month: Health Care Administration
4. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 19
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change
Once again, Bachelor’s degrees were the fastest-growing degree level.§ Doctoral programs grew in August after a long decline.
§ All other degree levels were flat or down year-over-year.
-11%
-7%
-4%
3%
8%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Undergraduate certificate
Master's degree
Associate's degree
Doctoral degree
Bachelor's degree
Change in InquiriesAugust 2017 YoY
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 20
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings: Medical and Health Services Managers
3. Program of the Month: Health Care Administration
4. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 21
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
All of The Big 5 Cities fell year-over-year.§ LA inched down 3%.
§ Inquiries in the other four cities fell by double digits.
-40%
5%
-7%
-20% -17%
-3%
-10% -10% -14%
-21%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Los Angeles, CA Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 22
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
The Big 5 Programs: August Growth
After some growth last month, all of The Big 5 Programs were flat or down in August.§ Business Admin (Bachelor’s) was flat.
§ Business Admin (Associate’s) was only down 6%.
§ Medical Assistant, Criminal Justice, and Registered Nursing were down 10% or more.
0%
-6%
-10% -11% -12%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Business Admin: Bachelor's +
Business Admin: Associate's
Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Registered Nursing
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 23
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
-69% -64%
-56% -54% -52%
-100%
-50%
0%
Curriculum and Instruction
Electrical/Electronics Equip. Install and
Repair
Construction Management
Cosmetology Organizational Behavior Studies
The Slow 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change
The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth
All five of the slowest-growing programs1 shrank more than 50%.
§ Curriculum and Instruction is the only repeat from last month.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 24
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
119% 117%
75% 74% 71%
0%
50%
100%
150%
General Studies Liberal Arts and Sciences/Liberal
Studies
Accounting and Business/Management
Hospitality Administration
Human Services
The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 70%.§ The top two, General Studies and Liberal Arts, are both new to the list and grew more than 110%.
§ The next two, also both new programs in the Fast 5, are Accounting/Business Management and Hospitality Administration.
§ Human Services, which has consistently shown up in the Fast 5, grew 71%.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 25
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings: Medical and Health Services Managers
3. Program of the Month: Health Care Administration
4. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 26
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Medical and Health Services Managers: Job Postings
After a 2016 decline, Job Postings for Medical and Health Services Managers are likely to rise.
165,885
206,335227,412
305,490286,999
213,180
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
Job Postings
Job PostingsMedical and Health Services Managers
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. September 1, 2016-August 31, 2017SOCs: Medical and Health Services Managers (11-9111) was used in this analysis.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 27
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Medical and Health Services Managers: Salary
Salaries are typically above $50,000 for Medical and Health Services Managers.
3,303
3,327
5,845
10,709
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Less than $35,000
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
More than $75,000
Salary Distribution (Advertised)
§ The mean salary is $79,000.
§ The median salary is $70,000.
Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.
Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. September 1, 2016-August 31, 2017SOCs: Medical and Health Services Managers (11-9111) was used in this analysis.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 28
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Medical and Health Services Managers: Education (Minimum Advertised)
Among job postings that specify education, 62% of Medical and Health Services Managers job postings cite a Bachelor’s degree.
0%
21%
62%
11%
7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Most Frequently Cited Education (Minimum Advertised)
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. September 1, 2016-August 31, 2017SOCs: Medical and Health Services Managers (11-9111) was used in this analysis.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 29
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Medical and Health Services Managers: Job Titles
Director of Nursing is the most common title in this field.
Job Titles Count % to TotalDirectorofNursing 21,030 7.17%MedicalDirector 17,177 5.86%ClinicalManager 14,588 4.97%RegisteredNurse 12,285 4.19%MedicalSurgical 5,574 1.90%AssistantDirectorofNursing 4,506 1.54%HealthDirector 3,771 1.29%PracticeManager 3,304 1.13%HealthManager 3,293 1.12%LicensedMedicalSurgicalUnit 3,063 1.04%
Total 293,271
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. September 1, 2016-August 31, 2017SOCs: Medical and Health Services Managers (11-9111) was used in this analysis.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 30
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Medical and Health Services Managers: Skill Clusters
Postings for Medical and Health Services Managers require a variety of skills.§ Outside of Health Care, many Business-related skills are cited.
16%
17%
17%
18%
21%
24%
26%
26%
28%
41%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Business: Quality Assurance and Control
Health Care: Emergency and Intensive Care
Administration: Scheduling
Health Care: Advanced Patient Care
Health Care: Health Care Procedure and Regulation
Information Technology: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools
Health Care: Medical Support
Health Care: Basic Patient Care
Finance: Budget Management
Business: People Management
Most Frequently-Cited Skill Clusters in Job Postings
OtherHealth Care
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. September 1, 2016-August 31, 2017SOCs: Medical and Health Services Managers (11-9111) was used in this analysis.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 31
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Medical and Health Services Managers: Employers
Anthem Blue Cross is the largest employer, but only accounts for 2.5% of specified postings.
5,014
3,513
3,160
2,048
1,983
1,557
1,544
1,473
1,456
1,444
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Anthem Blue Cross
UnitedHealth Group
Hospital Corporation of America
DaVita Incorporated
Sunrise Senior Living, Inc.
Fresenius
Integris
Aetna Incorporated
Ascension Health
Providence Health & Services
Medical and Health Services Managers Job Postings by Employer
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. September 1, 2016-August 31, 2017SOCs: Medical and Health Services Managers (11-9111) was used in this analysis.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 32
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings: Medical and Health Services Managers
3. Program of the Month: Health Care Administration
4. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 33
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Program Scorecard: Student Demand
Student Demand for Health Care Administration is higher than 98% of programs.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 34
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Program Scorecard: Student Demand
Student Demand for Health Care Administration is higher than 98% of programs.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 35
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Program Scorecard: Student Demand
Student Demand for Health Care Administration is higher than 98% of programs.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 36
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Program Scorecard: Student Demand
Growth in Student Demand for Health Care Administration is uncertain.
§ Inquiries are falling fast.
§ Google search volumes and IPEDs completions are rising quickly.
Growth?
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 37
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Program Scorecard
Student Demand for HCA is high, but so is competition, especially online.
Intense Competition
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 38
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Health Care Administration: Competition
For-profit, online competitors generate hundreds of completions per year.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 39
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Program Scorecard
HCA employment is healthy. Completions are increasingly focused on Master’s Degrees.
Good Job Volume Wages?
Emphasis on Master’s Degrees
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 40
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Program Scorecard
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 41
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree Level
4. City and Program
2. Job Postings: Medical and Health Services Managers
3. Program of the Month: Health Care Administration
4. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 42
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Key Demand Trends and Observations
§ Online rebounded and remains a bright spot in demand for higher education.─ Inquiries inched down just 1% vs. a very strong month in 2016.
─ Conversions rose 89% in May, are up for June and July, and will get better.
§ Interest in on-ground programs continued a steep decline.─ Inquiries fell 12% year-over-year.
─ Conversion fell 10% year-over-year.
§ Budgets are shifting from trades programs to degreed programs.
§ All large programs and cities were flat or down.
§ Health Care Administration is still a good program, but there are better ones.─ Student Demand is strong
─ But Competition is unusually intense, especially online
─ Jobs are healthy, but wage data is a concern
─ Over 100 programs scored higher: there are probably better options for new programs
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 43
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins
CEOGray Associates, Inc.
[email protected]@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 44
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: [email protected]
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
October Webcast(September Results)
Thursday, October 26th at 2:00 PM EDT