Andy Stirling on Precaution To Robustness

From Precaution to Robustness: in governance of technological vulnerability

Andy Stirling, SPRU

these slides wee prepared from various presentations as background to the discussion at the workshop on The Vulnerability of Technological Cultures:

new directions in research and governance, Maastricjt, 1-3 June 2008

progress

Technology Progress as Social Choice

SCIENCE

TECHNOLOGY

conventional ‘linear’ understandings of

technology change still prevail in

mainstream technology governance

eg:

“… this government's approach is to make

decisions … on the basis of sound science”

- Tony Blair

“[there is] an anti-technology culture in the

UK …a pro-technology culture must be

created…” - Council on Science & Tech

“politicians in power are affected by the anti-

science or anti-technology feelings of

influential intellectuals.” - EU HLG on S&T

time


PAST

FUTURE

conventional ‘linear’ understandings of

technology change still prevail in

mainstream technology governance

eg:

“history is a race to advance technology”

- Royal Academy of Engineering

„anti-technology protestors‟ are “…

members of the 'flat earth society’,

opposed to modern economics, modern

technology, modern science, modern life

itself.” – UN DDG

space of technological

possibilities

time


- different disciplines agree over pathway dynamics of technology

(shaping / contingency / momentum / trajectories / lock-in / entrapment)


possibilities

time


- each path displays different forms and distributions of vulnerability

- all are subject to divergent framings and incomplete knowledge

- raises questions over precaution and robustness in pathway choice


possibilities

time


- politics of technology choice underlies many set-piece ‘risk’ debates

eg: centralised thermal power / distributed renewable energy

industrial GM agriculture / low-input, marker-assisted breeding

halogenated hydrocarbons / ‘closed loop’ materials and energy

private urban automobiles / integrated public transportation

IP-driven pharmaceuticals / preventive open-source public health

consumer product-based IT / internet access to service-based IT


possibilities

time


- not all possibilities can be realised (especially in globalised markets)

eg: centralised thermal power / distributed renewable energy

industrial GM agriculture / low-input, marker-assisted breeding

halogenated hydrocarbons / ‘closed loop’ materials and energy

private urban automobiles / integrated public transportation

IP-driven pharmaceuticals / preventive open-source public health

consumer product-based IT / internet access to service-based IT


possibilities

time

- technology vulnerabilities doubly-constituted by evolution and closure


1 intrinsic indeterminacies of technology change cause general vulnerabilities

which typically bear most acutely on the least powerful social groups

2 closure on particular paths reflect incumbent interests and exclude others

compounds disempowerment, disappropriation with specific vulnerabilities


possibilities

time

challenges for governance of technological vulnerability


epistemic: uncertain and contested understandings of complex dynamics

needs precaution in appraisal (knowledge production, learning)

ontological: material intractability to action: technology and nature ‘bite back’

needs resilience and robustness in technology commitments

A Reflective ‘Systems’ View

inchoate array of

physical, social and

technological

entities and

relationships

‘system’

A Reflective ‘Systems’ View

environment

A Reflexive Co-Productionist View

environment

‘system’

FR

AM

ING

S

A Reflexive Co-Productionist View

environment

‘system’

FR

AM

ING

Scontext

A ‘Critical Political’ View

environment

system

context

su

ba

ltern

fra

min

gs

he

ge

mo

nic

fra

min

g

A ‘Critical Political’ View

environment

system

context

su

ba

ltern

fra

min

gs

he

ge

mo

nic

fra

min

g

eg: nuclear power

Precaution against Incertitude

Rio Declaration, Principle 15 (1992):

“In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation”

Ambiguous and contested as a ‘decision rule’ in ‘risk management’:

‘threats’? ‘serious’? ‘irreversible’? ‘certainty’?

proportionality? contending uncertainties?

Greater clarity and convergence as a process of ‘social appraisal’

more broad-based frameworks for understanding contending

technological pathways and associated vulnerabilities

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge

about

likelihoods

knowledge about outcomes

Contrasting Aspects of Incertitude

unproblematic

problematic


knowledge

about

likelihoods


RISK

known pathogens

normal flood / drought

familiar toxins / hazards


unproblematic

problematic


knowledge

about

likelihoods


UNCERTAINTY

mutated pathogens

local climate change

unfamiliar toxins / hazards

RISK

known pathogens




unproblematic

problematic


knowledge

about

likelihoods


AMBIGUITY

different interests / priorities

divergent notions of harm

trust, fairness, ethics

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

known pathogens



mutated pathogens




unproblematic

problematic


knowledge

about

likelihoods


IGNORANCE

unknowns, surprise, novelty

new vectors / forms of harm

(CFCs-ozone, BSE, EDCs)


RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

known pathogens



mutated pathogens



different interests / priorities

divergent notions of harm

trust, fairness, ethics

unproblematic

problematic


knowledge

about

likelihoods


RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

risk / cost-benefit analysis

multi-criteria assessment

probabilistic techniques

uncertainty heuristics

interval analysis

sensitivity analysis

participatory deliberation

scenarios / backcasting

MC mapping, q-method

monitor, surveil, research

social / institutional learning

adaptive management

Alternative Approaches to Appraisal

unproblematic

problematic


knowledge

about

likelihoods


RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

decision rules

aggregative analysis

deliberative process

political closure

reductive modeling

stochastic reasoning

rules of thumb

insurance

evidence-basing

agenda-setting

horizon scanning

transdisciplinarity

liability law

harm definitions

indicators / metrics

institutional remits

Pressures for Reductive Aggregation

need for reflexivity over epistemic dynamics of power

unproblematic

problematic


knowledge

about

likelihoods


RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

POWER DYNAMICS

there is a tendency for

incumbent institutions to

favour reductive-aggregative

appraisal procedures

to justify favoured pathways



unproblematic

problematic


knowledge

about

likelihoods


RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE



PRECAUTION:

‘broaden out’ view of

incertitude: frameworks,

methods, pathways,

pros & cons, perspectives

Precaution as Broadening of Appraisal (after EEA, 2001)

extend scope additive, cumulative, synergistic effects; life cycles, compliance

real world effects: CFCs, DES; „closed systems‟: MTBE, PCBs

humility on science sensitivities & proxies: mobility, persistence, bioaccumulation

omission of persistence in organochlorines, MTBE, CFCs

active research prioritise open monitoring & surveillance & targeted experiment

neglected: TBT, BSE; no monitoring: asbestos, benzene, PCBs

deliberate argument levels of proof, burden of evidence, onus of persuasion

Swann committee on antimicrobials, 1967 later ignored

alternative options pros, cons, justifications for range of options & substitutes

ALARA, BAT, BPM – ionising radiation, fisheries, acid rain

Public engagement independence through pluralism and robustness on values

benzene, DES, asbestos, acid rain, fisheries

institutional learning collect all relevant knowledge, beyond the ‘usual suspects’

MTBE / engineers; BSE / vets (clinical / toxicology / epidaem.)

From Knowledge to Action




From Knowledge to Action




ontological: material intractability to action: technology and nature ‘bite back’

needs resilience and robustness in technology commitments

From Precaution to Robustness

how and under what conditions and perspectives do

resilience and robustness reduce technological vulnerabilities?

like ‘sustainability’, dynamic properties are normatively nonspecific

- if referring to structure, then intrinsically conservative

- if referring to incumbent interests, then intrinsically regressive

- if referring to measures against vulnerability, then normatively progressive

key questions are therefore:

- what are the salient features of resilience, robustness (etc…)?

(in dynamics of vulnerability in technological pathways)

- how might we be more specific about the governance implications?

(with greater reflexivity about dynamics of framing and power)

shock (vulnerability to

transient disruption)

stress (vulnerability to

enduring shift)

control (vulnerability arises

internal to control system)

response (vulnerability arises

external to control system)

temporality

of target

vulnerabilities

aim of governance intervention





enduring shift)





temporality

of target

vulnerabilities


STABILITY


context

system

endogenous

disruption

STABILITY

vulnerabilities are held to be

broadly subject to control

system

(eg: routine optimising

management of pest

outbreaks in intensive

monocultures)


NB: ‘context’ includes both

positive notions of ‘system

environment and

constructivist notions of

subjective framings

STABILITY

DURABILITY




enduring shift)





temporality

of target

vulnerabilities



context

system

internal

stresses

DURABILITY


context

system

internal

stresses

DURABILITY


context

system

internal

stresses

DURABILITY


context

system

internal

stresses

DURABILITY


context

system

internal

stresses

DURABILITY


broadly subject to control

system

(eg: active adaptations against

soil erosion in intensive

agricultural systems)


STABILITY

DURABILITY

RESILIENCE




enduring shift)





temporality

of target

vulnerabilities



system

context

transient exogenous shocks

RESILIENCE


beyond control system,

so subject only to response

(eg: maintaining productivity

of specific farming system

through episodic drought)


STABILITY

DURABILITY

RESILIENCE

ROBUSTNESS




enduring shift)





temporality

of target

vulnerabilities



contextsecular

external

stress

system

ROBUSTNESS


secular

external

stress

ROBUSTNESS

context

system


secular

external

stress

ROBUSTNESS

context

system


secular

external

stress

ROBUSTNESS

context

system


contextsecular

external

stress

system

ROBUSTNESS


beyond control system, so

subject only to response

(eg: transforming /

passive adaptation of

farming system to long term

secular change in climate)


STABILITY RESILIENCE

context

DURABILITY

context

system

endogenous

disruption

system

internal

stresses

system

context

transient exogenous shocks

ROBUSTNESS

contextsecular

external

stress

system


STABILITY

DURABILITY

RESILIENCE

ROBUSTNESS

Dynamic Properties of Sustainability




enduring shift)





temporality

of target

vulnerabilities


STABILITY

DURABILITY

RESILIENCE

ROBUSTNESS

SUSTAINABILITY

Dynamic Properties of Sustainability




enduring shift)





temporality

of target

vulnerabilities


STABILITY

Pressures for Incumbent Pathways

POWER DYNAMICS

tendency for incumbent

institutions to favour

equilibrium strategies, which

preserve the status quo

DURABILITY

RESILIENCE

ROBUSTNESS

Need to be reflexive about the dynamics of power




enduring shift)





temporality

of target

vulnerabilities


STABILITY

eg - avian influenza:

equilibrium methods, routinised

practices encoded in standard,

global surveillance, early warning

and rapid response repertoires



DURABILITY

RESILIENCE

ROBUSTNESS




enduring shift)





temporality

of target

vulnerabilities


STABILITY


DURABILITY

RESILIENCE

ROBUSTNESS

agile, visionary.

supple strategies




enduring shift)





temporality

of target

vulnerabilities


reactive, directed

equilibrium strategies

foresighted, persistent,

malleable strategies

vigilant, responsive,

absorptive strategies


STABILITY

control shock

specific (eg: outage)

general

RESILIENCE

respond to shock

specific (eg: terror)

general

DURABILITY

control stress

specific (eg: peak oil)

general

ROBUSTNESS

respond to stress

specific (eg: climate)

general

INTENTIONAL

PURPOSEdirected

fixity

clarity

coherence

tenacity

vigour

resolution

agility

POLITICAL

ATTENTIONprioritised

alertness

focus

vigilance

persistence

foresight

vision

acuity

POLICY

INTERVENTIONproportional

reactive

targeted

responsive

transitional

flexible

transformative

adaptive

SOCIO-

TECHNICAL

COMMITMENTS

optimised

elastic

resistant

absorptive

applicable

malleable

pliant

supple

Contrasting Policy Implications

Strategic nuances of different dynamic properties

Education

Andy Stirling on Precaution To Robustness