China’s Food and Nutrition Securityin New Era

Jikun Huang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy

Chinese Academy of Sciences

4个主要观点 4 Major messages1. 中国在过去食物保障取

得巨大成就和经验

2. 中国正进入食物长期的短缺新时期

3. 食物和营养安全及目前政策正面临挑战

4. 未来出路：牢记过去的经验 + 针对新挑战措施

1. Success & experience in ensuring food security

2. Entering long run food shortage era

3. Food & nutrition security and policy: challenges

4. Where to go: past experience + measures for new challenges

Annual growth of agricultural GDP

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1950s-1970s 1980s-2000s

2.0

4.65

PopulationGrowth rate: 1.8% <1%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Export Import

In the past two decades, on average China was a net food exporter. Although recent import > export, total food self-sufficient in 2010 reached 97.6%.

China food trade: export and import (bil. US$) in 1992-2010

Except soybean, China achieved high level of food self-sufficiency in 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

Rural population under poverty (million)

国家贫困线 100 元/人年

0

50

100

150

200

25019

78

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1994

1995

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

100CNY per capita 1196CNY per capita 2300CNY per capita

国家贫困线 1196元/人年

国家贫困线 2300元/人年

Question:How have these been achieved?

Major drivers of agricultural growth: 4 major policies

- Institutional change-Technology -Market- Investment-…

However, now China has reached a stage of agricultural development:-- previous challenges intensified -- new challenges emerged

Baseline: the net export of agricultural commodities in 2012-2030 (million tons)

Source: Simulation by CAPSiM model, Huang et al. (2013)

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

201220202030

But this baseline has not taken into consideration of the current and

future challenges

Childhood Anemia (persisting through school age)in the Western China

Source: CCAP’s survey

%Total 33.7Shaanxi—2008 (Dataset 1) 37.5Shanxi—2009 (Dataset 2) 31.6Gansu—2010 (Dataset 3) 31.2Qinghai—2009 (Dataset 4) 51.1Ningxia—2009 (Dataset 5) 25.4Sichuan—2010 (Dataset 6) 24.8Guizhou—2010 (Dataset 7) 33.1

营养不良人口: 1.51亿Malnutrition population: 151 million(FAO, 2015)

Food and nutrition security in new era: Challenges

供需缺口逐渐扩大

营养和食品安全

地板上升进入新阶段

价格逼近天花板

水土资源短缺日趋严重

科技创新与农民需求

气候变化加大风险

Enlarging food shortage Nutrition + Safety Cost rising in new era Price Pd + 65% Rising water/land scarcity S&T innovation=farmer D? Climate change and risk

Composition of farm gate price: cereal

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Price structure (yuan/kg)

Land/labor/profit Seed Fertilizer Machinery Others

粮食作物平均收购价格变化及其成本构成（1999－2010）

Composition of farm gate price: vegetable + fruit

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Price

structure (yuan/k

g)

Land/labor/profit Seed Fertilizer Machinery Others

果蔬收购价格变化及其成本构成（1999－2010）

CCAP survey:• 2005-2013：8% of annual growth rate of real labor cost• 2008-2013：10% of annual growth rate of real land rent

Market price vs minimal price(yuan/kg)

Indica rice Japonic rice Wheat

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2004200520062007200820092010201120122013

最低收购价

市场价

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

最低收购价

市场价

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

最低收购价

收购市场价

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

国内批发价

进口到岸价

Consequences: use wheat as case

• Enlarging price gap• Rising import pressure• Import Storage↑

Domestic price

CIF

Food and nutrition security in new era: Challenges

供需缺口逐渐扩大

营养和食品安全

地板上升进入新阶段

价格逼近天花板

水土资源短缺日趋严重

科技创新与农民需求

气候变化加大风险

Enlarging food shortage Nutrition + Safety Cost rising in new era Price Pd + 65% Rising water/land scarcity S&T innovation=farmer D? Climate change and risk

主要挑战和过去经验 Challenges and past experience制度创新Institution

技术进步Technology

市场改革Market

农业投入Investment

供需缺口 Import +++ +++++ ++ +++++

营养安全 Nutrition ++ +++ ++ +++

成本上升 Cost rise +++ +++++ ++ ++++

价格天花板 Pd+65% ++ +++++ +++ ++++

水土短缺 Water/land +++ ++++ +++ ++++

科技创新 S&T ++++ +++++ +++ ++

气候变化 Climate C. +++ +++++ ++ +++++

主要挑战和目前政策 Challenges and current policies农业补贴Subsidy

托市政策Price support

技术进步Technology

农业投入Investment

供需缺口 Import 0 - - - ++++ ++++

营养安全 Nutrition 0 0 +++ ++

成本上升 Cost rise 0 0 ++++ +++

价格天花板 Pd+65% 0 - - - ++++ +++

水土短缺 Water/land - 0 ++++ ++++

科技创新 S&T 0 0 ++++ ++

气候变化 Climate C. 0 0 ++++ ++++

财政支出 Budget: ***** **** * ***

4个主要观点 4 Major messages1. 中国在过去食物保障取

得巨大成就和经验

2. 中国正进入食物长期的短缺新时期

3. 食物和营养安全及目前政策正面临挑战

4. 未来出路：– 牢记过去经验：4大法宝– 针对新挑战措施

• 营养/食品安全• 成本上升• 水土/可持续发展

1. Success & experience in ensuring food security

2. Entering long run food shortage era

3. Food & nutrition security and policy: challenges

4. Where to go：– Past 4 experiences– Measures for new challenges

• Nutrition and safety• Rising labor/land cost• Wate/land/sustainable