Definition Definition ofof land desertification land desertification risk by using simple indicatorsrisk by using simple indicators

Christos Karavitis Costas KosmasOrestis Kairis Vassileia FassouliMina Karamesouti Kate Kounalaki

Agricultural University of Athens

55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010

Contributors Contributors

1.Celeste de Oliveira Alves Coelho, João Soares, Sandra Valente: University of Aveiro, Portugal.

2.Dino Torri, Fabrizio Ungaro, Francesca Santaloia, Maurizio Polemio, Piernicola Lollino: Research Institute for Hydrogeological Protection – CNR, Italy.

3.Faruk Ocakoglu, Candan Gokceoglu, Harun Sonmez, Levent Tezcan, Halil Gungor, Sanem Ac.kalin: Eskisehir Osmangazi University-EOU, Turkey.

4.Abdellah Laouina, Miloud Chaker: University of Mohamed V, Chair UNESCO-GN, Morocco.

5.Mohamed Ouessar, Houcine Khatteli, Mongi Sghaier, Houcine Taamallah, Azaiez Ouled Belgacem: Institut des Regions Arides-IRA, Tunisia.

6.Li Rui, Yang Qinke, Jiao Juying, Wang Fei, Wen Zhonging, Jiao Feng: Institute of Soil and Water Conservation-ISWC, China.

7.Ioannis Diamantis, Fotios Pliakas, Apostolos Ziogas: Democritus University of Thrace-DUTH, Greece.

8.Albert Sole Benet, Francisco Domingo, Ana Rey, Emiliano Pegoraro, Jesus Fernandez: Estacion Experimental de Zonas Aridas, EEZACSIC, Spain.

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9. Antonio Ferreira, Pedro Morais, Marta Lopes: Escola Superior Agraria de Gois-ESAC, Portugal

10. Raban Chanda, Michael B.K. Darkoh, Lapo Magole, Julius R. Atlhopheng, Jeremy Perkins, Kutlwano Mulale, Reuben Sebego: University of Botswana-UB, Botswana.

11. Anatoly M. Zeiliguer, Marya L. Sizemskaya, Nikolay B. Khitrov, Vladimir A. Romanenkov, Olga S. Ermolaeva: Moscow State University of Environmental Engineering-MSUEE, Russia.

12. Carlos Ovalle, Alejandro del Pozo, Erick Zagal, Cladio Perez, Juan A. Barrera, Jorge Riquelme, Fernando Fernandez: Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias-INIA, Chile.

13. Jorge Mendes Brito, Nora Helena Ramos Silva, Paulo Jorge Alfama: National Institut for Agriculture Research and Development-INIDA, Cape Verde.

14. Christian Prat, Maria Alcalá, Lenin Medina, Adriana Ramos, José Juan Ramos, Manuel Mendoza, Daniel Gonzalez: Institut de Recherche pour le Développement-IRD, Mexico.

Contributors (continued)Contributors (continued)

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Methodology usedMethodology used17 study sites were selected located in:

1. Rendina Basin Basilicata - Italy• Nestos Basin Maggana - Greece• Crete - Greece• Mação - Portugal• Gois - Portugal • Guadalentin Basin Murcia - Spain• Konya Karapinar plain - Turkey• Eskisehir Plain - Turkey• Novij Saratov - Russia• Djanybek - Russia• Zeuss Koutine - Tunisia• Boteti Area - Botswana• Santiago Island - Cape Verde• Mamora Sehoul - Morocco• Loess Plateau - China• Secano Interior - Chile• Cointzio catchment - Mexico.

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MethodologyMethodology usedused

The following processes or causes were identified as affecting land desertification in the study sites:

Soil erosion Soil salinizationWater stressOvergrazingForest fires

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Methodology usedMethodology usedA list of 72 candidate indicators has been identified using the following sources:

United Nations Committees for Combating Desertification (UNCCD) – National Action Plans

European Environmental Agency (EEA) - DPSIR (Driving forces, Pressure, State, Impact, Responses indicators)

MEDALUS projects - Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use

MEDRAP – Mediterranean Desertification Regional Action Plan

DESERTLINKS – DIS4ME

Local stakeholders

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Each indicator has been described using existing classes based on existing classification systems and research results.Weighing indices have been assigned in each class.

Methodology usedMethodology used

CLIMATE <12 12-15 15-18 18-21 >21 Annual air

Temperature (oC) 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0

<280 280-650 650 -1000 >1000 Annual rainfall (mm) 4 2 1.5 1.0

<50 50-75 75-100 100-125 125-150 >150 BG aridity

index 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

<500 500-800 800-1200 1200-1500 >1500 Annual pot. evapotranspiration

(mm) 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0

<0.19 0.20-0.39 0.40-0.59 0.60-0.79 0.80-0.99 1.00-1.19 >1.20 Rain seasonality

1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0

<60 60 -90 91-120 121-160 >160 Rain erosivity (mm/h) 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0

WATER

<400 400-800 800-1500 >1500 Water quality ( μS) 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0

Adequate Moderate Low None Water quantity

1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0

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Questionnaires have been prepared including all the indicators corresponding to the identified processes or causes.

A manual for describing indicators has been prepared for conducting field survey and collecting data.

A harmonized data basis has been developed including information from 1641 field sites.

Methodology used

Field site

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Methodology usedMethodology used

A forward stepwise multiple regression analysis was applied for each process or cause with dependent variable the desertification risk and independent variables all the indicators assigned for each process using the following linear model: 

Υ = β0 + β1Χ1 + β2Χ2 + …………. + βκΧκ. Where: Y is the dependent variable of desertification risk, β0 is the Υ intercept

β1, β2, etc. are slopes of the regression plane,

X1, X2, etc. are the independent variables of indicators used.

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Type of environmentally

sensitive area

Degree of soil erosion Desertification risk

Assigned weighing indices

Critical Very severe, severe Very high 5

Moderate, slight High 4

no erosion moderate 3

Fragile Very severe High 4

Severe, moderate Moderate 3Slight, no erosion Low 2

Potential Very severe, severe Moderate 3

Moderate, Low 2Slight, no erosion No risk 1

Non-threatened Very severe, severe, moderate

Low 2

Slight, no erosion No risk 1

Methodology usedMethodology usedDefinition of desertification risk for the degradation processes: (a) water erosion, (b) tillage erosion, (c) forest fires, (d) overgrazing

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Distribution of data collected for the various processes and causes with the corresponding land uses, and

distribution in the study sitesDegradation process

Land use Study sites

Field sites Number of indicators

used

Soil erosion Agriculture 9 477 49

Pasture 8 244 49

Forests 6 85 49

Soil salinization

Agriculture, natural

vegetation

5 258 27

Water stress Agriculture, natural

vegetation

5 258 50

Overgrazing Natural vegetation, agriculture

6 265 44

Forest fires Natural vegetation

4 85 29

Methodology used

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Results obtainedResults obtainedAssessing desertification risk due to water erosion in croplandAnalyzed candidate indicators: 49Important indicators: 17

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Results obtainedResults obtainedAssessing desertification risk due to water erosion in pasturesAnalyzed candidate indicators: 49Important indicators: 15

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Assessing desertification risk due to water erosion in forests

Analyzed candidate indicators: 49Important indicators: 10

Results obtainedResults obtained

55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010

Assessing desertification risk due to tillage erosionAnalyzed candidate indicators: 17Important indicators: 10

Results obtainedResults obtained

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Assessing desertification risk due to soil salinizationAnalyzed candidate indicators: 27Important indicators: 9

Results obtainedResults obtained

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Assessing desertification risk due to water stressAnalyzed candidate indicators: 50Important indicators: 12

Results obtainedResults obtained

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Assessing desertification risk due to overgrazingAnalyzed candidate indicators: 44Important indicators: 12

Results obtainedResults obtained

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Assessing desertification risk due to forest firesAnalyzed candidate indicators: 29Important indicators: 8

Results obtainedResults obtained

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Input data for selected land Input data for selected land degradation processdegradation process

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Output data for selected land Output data for selected land degradation processdegradation process

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Main ConclusionsMain Conclusions

The analysis of the data has shown that a short list of indicators ranging from 8 to 17 may be used to assess land desertification risk.

The comparative analysis has shown that indicators may be used world wide for assessing desertification risk.

The derived methodology may be used to assess the efficiency and efficacy of different land management practices and degradation monitoring techniques for combating desertification at farm level and given the pertinent information at even regional level.

The derived system of indicators may enable land users to test different scenarios for ecosystem vulnerability in order to assess critical stress factors and their impacts on desertification.

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THANK YOU! THANK YOU!